And the 2011 Super Bowl Winner Is?

I posted the projected records for the 2010/2011 NFL season earlier, so the next natural step is to use those selected playoff teams to pick the playoff games and determine the chances of each team winning the Super Bowl.  So I went about doing so using my computer's end of last season ratings.

As projected, the seeds in the AFC would be San Diego, Indy, the Jets, Baltimore, New England, and Houston.  In the NFC they would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Green Bay, and Carolina. These are picked based on each teams most likely record given their upcoming schedule.

Plugging those teams in to a playoff bracket, the chances of each team getting to and winning the Super Bowl are then:

Team	Conference	Superbowl
New Orleans	0.476	0.287
San Diego	0.348	0.153
Indianapolis	0.306	0.142
Minnesota	0.269	0.141
NY Jets	0.136	0.062
Dallas	0.112	0.059
Baltimore	0.090	0.039
New England	0.085	0.039
Green Bay	0.063	0.031
Carolina	0.038	0.018
Arizona	0.041	0.017
Houston	0.035	0.013

As one might expect, using last years ratings where the Saints won it all, they are predicted to do so again even having to navigate a tougher schedule.  What is perhaps a surprise is that San Diego is listed as having the better chance to be their opponent than Indianapolis.

As always this early in the season, the ratings will change, the teams will not perform the same as last year, so the above is almost assured of being incorrect.  But it is still interesting to see and I'll post updates regularly.

Preliminary 2010 College Football Week 1 Ratings; Alabama staying #1, TCU up to #2

There are still a few more games that will be included in the week 1 ratings so these are not final, but I hate waiting for the last couple games so will discuss what we've seen thus far.  Of course, with just a single game played the ratings, and thus rankings, are very volatile and you are going to see teams winning and dropping or losing and rising.  At this point, a teams rating is 50% from their single game and 50% from last years rating.

See the full list of ratings on the web-site, but the top-25 are below.

Alabama stays #1 but drops a bunch of ratings points due to playing a very weak opponent.  It is also due to them having such a dominating margin over #2 Florida at the end of last year and Florida also dropping.  These drops are not uncommon and before fans of those schools panic, these games will carry very little weight in each teams rating as soon as they play a meaningful game so don't worry.  However Florida really didn't play well and probably deserves the drop.

TCU takes advantage of Florida dropping to move to #2 and Va Tech and Boise St. are close behind and will decide a lot tomorrow night.  Texas drops for similar reasons to Alabama and Florida leaving room for Ohio State, LSU, and Oregon to move up.

The big movers for the week are Michigan getting into the top-40 at #39, Virginia also doing the same at #40, South Carolina getting to #12, and Fresno State jumping to #32.

On the other side, UConn drops all the way to #72, Ole Miss to #57, Cincinnati to #45, and Richmond to #94.

Stay tuned for more!

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	87.980	1-0	55.082	+0, -5.267
2	TCU	84.965	1-0	75.769	+1, -0.195
3	Virginia Tech	83.722	0-0	0.000	+2, +0.000
4	Boise St	83.207	0-0	0.000	+2, +0.000
5	Ohio State	82.505	1-0	60.031	+3, +1.701
6	Florida	82.331	1-0	56.284	-4, -6.188
7	LSU	80.923	1-0	75.315	+2, +0.392
8	Oregon	80.496	1-0	50.214	+2, +0.202
9	Texas	79.953	1-0	60.759	-5, -4.908
10	Georgia Tech	78.546	1-0	55.041	+4, -0.401
11	Texas Tech	78.405	0-0	0.000	+6, -0.000
12	South Carolina	77.496	1-0	59.615	+28, +3.830
13	Arkansas	77.439	1-0	47.983	-6, -3.408
14	Pittsburgh	77.245	0-1	79.682	+7, -0.563
15	Wisconsin	76.727	1-0	63.933	+18, +2.280
16	Utah	76.682	1-0	74.245	+11, +0.563
17	Penn State	76.638	1-0	51.530	-2, -2.046
18	Georgia	76.617	1-0	51.507	+11, +0.898
19	Southern Cal	76.388	1-0	64.499	+7, +0.266
20	Arizona	76.378	1-0	58.592	+12, +1.551
21	Brigham Young	76.354	1-0	69.162	+1, -1.192
22	Iowa	75.917	1-0	50.730	-2, -2.115
23	Clemson	75.818	1-0	52.352	-5, -2.423
24	Oregon St	75.769	0-1	84.965	+7, +0.195
25	Miami FL	75.694	1-0	46.542	-6, -2.525

College Basketball Rankings through 3/21/2010

My computer's college basketball rankings through 3/21 are now posted on the web-site.

Below I've listed the rankings for the teams still in the NCAA Tournament.  Only Kansas and Texas A&M are top-10 teams that are missing from the sweet 16 and Cornell at #34 is the lowest ranked team still in.  So a pretty quality field even with some of the upsets and missing teams.  The computer has Duke being the highest rated team still in but Kentucky now seems to be the pick of all the prognosticators.

The computer had a fantastic first round predicting, going 25-7 picking winners and 22-10 against the spread while Vegas went only 19-13 picking winners.  Round 2 didn't go as well at 7-9 against the spread and 11-5 on winners with Vegas 10-6 on winners.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
2	Duke	94.247	31-5	81.833	+0, +0.195
3	Syracuse	93.106	30-4	80.966	+0, +0.021
4	Kentucky	92.582	34-2	80.312	+1, +0.839
5	Kansas St	92.522	27-7	83.312	-1, +0.547
6	Baylor	91.680	26-7	81.687	+0, +0.174
7	Ohio State	91.396	29-7	80.280	+1, +0.036
8	West Virginia	91.340	29-6	83.243	-1, -0.141
10	Purdue	89.467	29-5	81.219	+4, -0.001
14	Butler	89.175	30-4	79.540	+6, +0.780
16	Xavier OH	88.948	26-8	81.083	+3, +0.508
19	St Mary's CA	88.346	27-5	78.002	+8, +0.573
22	Washington	88.062	26-9	80.495	+7, +0.465
25	Northern Iowa	87.808	30-4	78.886	+5, +0.430
26	Tennessee	87.698	27-8	81.222	+7, +0.649
28	Michigan St	87.670	26-8	81.108	-3, -0.274
34	Cornell NY	86.699	27-4	76.238	+29, +2.633

NBA Rankings Through January 3rd

I've updated the NBA rankings on the Schmidt Computer Ratings website through yesterday's games.

The top 3 stay the same but Cleveland, Boston, and the Lakers are all within about 1.5 ratings points so they are close.  Orlando and San Antonio move up a bit this week and are nipping at the heels of the Lakers.

I haven't spent the time to try to track the spreads for all the games and tune the computer to maximize the performance there, but am starting to and in the games I tracked last week the computer went 5-2 against the spread.  The picks for tonight's games are:

• Miami +1.5 over Atlanta
• Ok City +2.5 over Chicago
• New Orleans +8 over Utah
• Portland +4 over the Clippers

While it is picking underdogs in each of these games, 5 of the 7 last week it picked favorites.

Enjoy

End of Regular Season NFL Ratings/Ranking and Review

The regular season is now complete, and none too soon given the way some good teams packed it in the last few weeks.  Teams resting starters wreaked havoc with the computer's picks the last few weeks, but the question now is if those teams can go back to where they were?

The latest rankings are below but always found here.  And there are some changes.  New Orleans somehow manages to stay #1 even though they lost over 1.2 ratings points as they had a big enough lead, and many of the other top teams also did poorly and dropped.  New England was one of those dropping nearly a full ratings point but benefited by the Colts dropping over 2 points to stay #2, and Dallas jumps up to #3 with San Diego close behind at #4.

The question now is if the teams are rated where they should be.  Indianapolis seems low at #8, but history shows that when they've rested folks they've been unable to get it back.  Dallas and San Diego are finishing strong and getting rewarded for it.  The Jets even with their finish have jumped to #7.

The whacky end of season games did result in the computer only going 8-8 against the spread.  Here's hoping it does better in the playoffs more in line with the season record of 148-102-6.  Full prediction performance shown here.

Look for an upcoming entry on wildcard weekend picks as well as Superbowl chances for each team.  If you are interested in detailed playoff games previews, subscribe to the newsletter.  See the bowl game previews for examples of what you'll get.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	87.593	13-3	80.858	+0, -1.208
2	New England	86.684	10-6	82.069	+0, -0.908
3	Dallas	86.594	11-5	80.982	+3, +0.984
4	San Diego	85.721	13-3	79.851	+1, -0.569
5	Philadelphia	85.259	11-5	81.155	-1, -1.176
6	Green Bay	85.158	11-5	78.809	+3, +1.494
7	NY Jets	85.114	9-7	81.758	+0, +0.722
8	Indianapolis	84.925	14-2	80.356	-5, -2.149
9	Minnesota	84.673	12-4	78.875	+1, +1.178
10	Baltimore	84.332	9-7	80.390	-2, +0.207
11	Atlanta	83.990	9-7	82.562	+0, +0.502
12	Carolina	83.967	8-8	82.992	+0, +1.116
13	Houston	82.618	9-7	80.137	+1, +0.346
14	Pittsburgh	82.156	9-7	80.025	+5, +0.976
15	Cincinnati	81.782	10-6	80.467	+0, -0.482
16	Arizona	81.692	10-6	78.647	-3, -1.139
17	San Francisco	81.196	8-8	79.010	+3, +0.068
18	Miami	80.933	7-9	83.173	-1, -0.590
19	Tennessee	80.479	8-8	81.110	+2, -0.267
20	NY Giants	80.477	8-8	82.180	-2, -0.890
21	Denver	80.388	8-8	81.155	-5, -1.739
22	Buffalo	80.351	6-10	82.443	+0, +1.648
23	Chicago	78.332	7-9	79.968	+2, +0.628
24	Tampa Bay	77.777	3-13	83.521	-1, -0.344
25	Washington	77.371	4-12	80.887	+1, +0.301
26	Jacksonville	77.247	7-9	80.523	-2, -0.572
27	Cleveland	76.213	5-11	80.529	+0, +0.825
28	Kansas City	75.812	4-12	80.851	+2, +1.801
29	Oakland	74.811	5-11	81.610	-1, -0.021
30	Seattle	74.288	5-11	79.568	-1, -0.220
31	St Louis	70.037	1-15	80.137	+0, -0.625
32	Detroit	69.438	2-14	80.812	+0, -0.189

2009/2010 Week 18 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 18 (games played thru 2-Jan).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

30 games down, only 4 to go!  And while there have been upsets and surprises in the games of the last week and there have been some big movers farther down in the rankings, the top-6 remain the same.

Alabama easily remains #1 although Florida did narrow the gap after dismantling Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl.  TCU stays #3 after moving to that spot last week after the early success of the Mountain West Conference in the bowls and in fact extends the lead over Texas.  Virginia Tech and Arkansas both won their bowl games and keep their rankings, although VT did so impressively and improved their rating while Arkansas eked out their win and actually lost ratings points but narrowly stayed ahead of Boise State who moved up to #7 thanks to Cincinnati and Oregon both falling out of the top-10.  Georgia Tech and Ohio State also benefited from those teams dropping.

The computer has continued the good performance against the spread and is now 19-11.  A nice summary of the picks and performance is here.  Full prediction performance for the year is here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	92.063	13-0	71.945	+0, -0.012
2	Florida	88.347	13-1	71.694	+0, +1.074
3	TCU	87.631	12-0	66.649	+0, +0.598
4	Texas	85.906	13-0	69.109	+0, -0.783
5	Virginia Tech	83.960	10-3	73.302	+0, +1.227
6	Arkansas	80.753	8-5	72.532	+0, -1.073
7	Boise St	80.607	13-0	61.621	+3, -0.126
8	Georgia Tech	80.402	11-2	72.999	+4, +0.271
9	LSU	80.353	9-4	72.886	+0, -0.677
10	Ohio State	80.308	11-2	67.802	+7, +2.257
11	Oklahoma	80.153	8-5	70.858	+0, -0.529
12	Cincinnati	80.053	12-1	68.407	-4, -1.172
13	Oregon	79.947	10-3	72.073	-6, -1.561
14	Nebraska	79.313	10-4	69.191	+2, +1.057
15	Clemson	78.804	9-5	71.330	+0, +0.077
16	Texas Tech	78.553	9-4	67.803	-2, -0.696
17	Miami FL	78.538	9-4	72.317	-4, -0.818
18	Mississippi	78.378	9-4	70.066	+0, +0.364
19	Penn State	78.181	11-2	65.999	+5, +1.504
20	Brigham Young	77.938	11-2	68.155	+2, +0.567
21	Pittsburgh	77.858	10-3	69.074	-2, +0.151
22	Stanford	76.822	8-5	70.128	-1, -0.614
23	Auburn	76.517	8-5	72.235	+0, -0.843
24	Utah	76.426	10-3	67.206	+3, +0.369
25	Tennessee	76.313	7-6	71.687	-5, -1.265
26	Connecticut	76.035	8-5	69.325	+9, +1.233
27	North Carolina	76.024	8-5	70.356	+3, +0.396
28	Iowa	76.019	10-2	68.283	+6, +0.865
29	Southern Cal	75.978	9-4	70.688	-3, -0.315
30	Georgia	75.857	8-5	73.111	+1, +0.576
31	Oregon St	75.514	8-5	69.872	-3, -0.519
32	Air Force	74.620	8-5	65.889	+13, +2.520
33	Florida St	74.606	7-6	73.780	+6, +1.659
34	Arizona	74.591	8-5	71.385	-9, -1.800
35	Oklahoma St	74.142	9-4	69.003	-6, -1.881
36	Mississippi St	74.088	5-7	73.272	+0, -0.356
37	Wisconsin	73.973	10-3	67.132	+10, +2.196
38	West Virginia	73.952	9-4	69.928	-6, -1.279
39	Kentucky	73.726	7-6	70.058	-2, -0.294
40	South Carolina	73.718	7-6	73.855	-7, -1.445
41	Rutgers	73.046	9-4	62.546	-3, -0.002
42	Navy	72.320	10-4	65.906	+12, +2.178
43	Boston College	72.135	8-5	69.459	+3, +0.298
44	California	72.114	8-5	70.437	-3, -0.395
45	South Florida	71.927	8-5	66.944	+6, +0.819
46	Wake Forest	71.853	5-7	71.331	+2, +0.307
47	Central Michigan	71.820	11-2	60.331	-3, -0.346
48	Notre Dame	71.784	6-6	69.710	+2, +0.455
49	East Carolina	71.113	9-5	67.771	+3, +0.160
50	Washington	70.815	5-7	71.288	-1, -0.515
51	Houston	70.739	10-4	64.413	-11, -1.988
52	Texas A&M	70.623	6-7	69.883	-10, -1.852
53	UCLA	70.385	7-6	70.694	+0, -0.187
54	Missouri	70.381	8-5	68.579	-11, -1.857
55	Michigan St	70.048	6-7	68.487	+0, +0.719
56	Troy	68.518	9-3	62.468	+0, -0.297
57	Minnesota	68.406	6-7	70.203	+5, +0.821
58	Kansas	68.292	5-7	69.324	-1, -0.426
59	Virginia	68.040	3-9	73.669	+2, +0.246
60	Nevada	68.005	8-5	64.240	+0, +0.169
61	Northwestern	67.930	8-5	64.487	+12, +1.523
62	Arizona St	67.837	4-8	68.313	-4, -0.568
63	Middle Tennessee St	67.817	10-3	60.557	-4, -0.206
64	Purdue	67.438	5-7	68.094	+7, +0.868
65	Iowa St	67.183	7-6	66.431	-2, -0.370
66	Fresno St	67.090	8-5	65.070	+2, +0.417
67	Kansas St	66.853	6-6	67.163	-3, -0.635
68	Central Florida	66.755	8-5	65.226	-3, -0.485
69	Duke	66.636	5-7	68.286	+3, +0.138
70	SMU	66.618	8-5	64.614	-3, -0.120
71	Southern Miss	66.537	7-6	62.703	-5, -0.349
72	North Carolina St	66.477	5-7	67.613	+2, +0.245
73	Temple	66.285	9-4	61.351	-4, -0.378
74	Baylor	65.996	4-8	70.709	-4, -0.616
75	Louisiana Tech	65.834	4-8	65.280	+2, +0.393
76	Ohio U.	65.306	9-5	62.103	+0, -0.327
77	Syracuse	65.251	4-8	69.023	+2, +0.295
78	Bowling Green	64.838	7-6	63.169	-3, -0.812
79	Marshall	64.763	7-6	66.197	-1, -0.331
80	Wyoming	64.655	7-6	68.695	+0, +0.359
81	Maryland	64.108	2-10	71.030	+1, +0.236
82	Michigan	63.954	5-7	64.803	+5, +0.928
83	Illinois	63.753	3-9	68.793	+3, +0.670
84	UNLV	63.363	5-7	67.259	+5, +0.562
85	Northern Illinois	63.358	7-6	59.706	-4, -0.863
86	Colorado	63.293	3-9	69.907	-3, -0.566
87	Alabama-Birmingham	63.256	5-7	65.736	-3, -0.365
88	Vanderbilt	63.134	2-10	71.420	-3, -0.152
89	Louisville	62.884	4-8	68.557	-1, +0.025
90	Indiana	62.645	4-8	66.518	+4, +0.867
91	Tulsa	62.378	5-7	63.243	-1, -0.316
92	Utah St	62.075	4-8	66.200	+1, +0.258
93	Idaho	62.017	8-5	63.832	+2, +0.624
94	San Diego St	61.847	4-8	66.408	+2, +0.506
95	Buffalo	61.767	5-7	61.953	-4, -0.317
96	Hawaii	61.431	6-7	63.009	+1, +0.632
97	UTEP	61.427	4-8	63.175	-5, -0.432
98	Colorado St	60.558	3-9	67.963	+0, +0.506
99	Florida Atlantic	58.603	5-7	61.940	+0, -0.196
100	Kent St	58.429	5-7	59.857	+0, -0.288
101	Western Michigan	57.935	5-7	60.320	+1, -0.064
102	Louisiana-Monroe	57.829	6-6	61.085	-1, -0.228
103	Toledo	57.023	5-7	61.920	+0, -0.239
104	Memphis	56.577	2-10	66.145	+0, -0.419
105	Army	55.628	5-7	60.596	+2, +0.142
106	Arkansas St	55.480	4-8	59.176	-1, -0.169
107	Louisiana-Lafayette	55.436	6-6	60.630	-1, -0.207
108	Ball St	54.172	2-10	61.739	+0, -0.278
109	Tulane	54.109	3-9	65.103	+0, -0.337
109	Washington St	54.109	1-11	71.987	+1, -0.262
111	New Mexico	53.463	1-11	69.115	+3, +0.339
112	Akron	53.438	3-9	61.931	-1, -0.179
113	Miami OH	52.953	1-11	66.688	-1, -0.316
114	North Texas	52.946	2-10	60.764	+1, -0.176
115	Rice	52.917	2-10	67.045	-2, -0.271
116	San Jose St	52.578	2-10	66.617	+1, +0.326
117	Florida Int'l	52.355	3-9	64.922	-1, -0.221
118	New Mexico St	50.784	3-10	63.850	+0, +0.308
119	Western Kentucky	45.956	0-12	61.825	+0, -0.139
120	Eastern Michigan	45.284	0-12	63.060	+0, -0.173

New Years Day 2010 Bowl Previews

Happy New Year and welcome to 2010.  While television has saddled us with only 5 games (same as last year but down from 6 the few years before that and more in the "olden days"), there are a few good ones.  The full previews newsletter subscribers got earlier this week will be posted around game time, but here is a short synopsis on each game.

The day kicks off with the Outback Bowl and Auburn favored big over Northwestern.  Even with the line growing to 8 or 9, the computer says it isn't enough picking Auburn by over 10.

Next up is LSU and Penn State in the Capital One Bowl where PSU was favored by 3 early but now it appears as a pick'em or even LSU by 1.  The computer liked LSU from the start, having the margin over 4 so I hope you got the early +3!

Florida State and West Virginia go at it in the Gator Bowl with WVU the 2 to 3 point pick and the computer agrees, the margin having been predicted to be right around 2.5 the whole bowl season.

In the grandaddy of them all, Oregon and Ohio State go head to head and Oregon is the Vegas pick by around 4 and early that was the computer's pick too, but with the Pac-10 underachieving a bit the pick is now down under 3.

And in the Sugar Bowl, Cincinnati tries to stay undefeated against a Florida team with a whole host of emotions in play and the Vegas line of 13 is way too high according to the computer, it pegging it at around 6.  But how will Cincinnati play with an acting head coach?

That's it for now.  Follow @computerratings on Twitter for more tidbits throughout the day.

Midway point bowl game review

With just over half of the bowls now played, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how the computer has done and how the conferences have done against expectations thus far.  As a reminder, I posted a conference summary preview a few weeks ago and that is what I'll be comparing the records thus far against.

As far as the computer goes, through the Navy/Missouri game, it is 12-6 against the spread and 9-9 picking winners.  That probably sounds backwards, but from what I can tell all the experts are mostly under 0.500 picking winners this season and Vegas is only 7-11 so I consider the 9-9 very good.  Here are the details:

• Wyoming vs Fresno State - Picked Wyoming plus the points but didn't pick the upset.  1-0 and 0-1
• Rutgers vs Central Florida - Picked Rutgers minus the points and got it and the win.  2-0 and 1-1
• Southern Miss vs MTSU - Picked MTSU plus the points but not to win.  3-0 and 1-2
• BYU vs Oregon State - Picked OSU minus the points and missed on both.  3-1 and 1-3
• Utah vs California - Picked Utah in the upset and got it.  4-1 and 2-3
• SMU vs Nevada - Picked SMU plus the points but not the upset.  5-1 and 2-4
• Marshall vs Ohio U. - Picked Marshall plus the points but not the upset.  6-1 and 2-5
• UNC vs Pitt - Picked Pitt by 2.2 and they won by 2 nailing it.  7-1 and 3-5
• BC vs USC - Picked BC plus the points but USC to win.  7-2 and 4-5
• Clemson vs Kentucky - Picked UK plus the points but not quite enough points.  7-3 and 5-5
• TAMU vs Georgia - Picked TAMU plus the points and missed.  7-4 and 6-5
• Temple vs UCLA - Picked UCLA minus the points and got it.  8-4 and 7-5
• Miami vs Wisconsin - Picked Miami minus the points and missed.  8-5 and 7-6
• Bowling Green vs Idaho - Picked BG minus the points and missed. 8-6 and 7-7
• Nebraska vs Arizona - Picked Nebraska minus the points and got it.  9-6 and 8-7
• Air Force vs Houston - Picked AF plus the points but not the upset.  10-6 and 8-8
• Stanford vs Oklahoma - Picked Stanford plus the points and got it.  11-6 and 9-8
• Missouri vs Navy - Picked Navy plus the points but not the upset.  12-6 and 9-9

As far as the conferences go, here is what was predicted and how they've done thus far:

• SEC - 8-2 predicted and 1-1 thus far
• Big-12 - 4-4 and 2-2
• Pac-10 - 4-3 and 2-4
• Big-Televen - 1-6 and 1-0
• ACC - 4-3 and 1-3
• Big-East - 4-3 and 2-0
• C-USA - 2-4 and 2-3
• Mountain-West - 2-3 and 4-0
• MAC - 3-2 and 0-3
• WAC - 2-2 and 1-2
• Sun-Belt - 0-2 and 1-0
• Independent - 0-1 and 1-0

Some conferences still have a bunch of games to go, but the Pac-10 and ACC are a bit behind the predictions, the MAC is well behind and the Mountain West has made a statement thus far and if TCU can win as expected will be 3 games over the prediction.

And based on the strength of the Mountain West thus far, if I were to recalculate the ratings today TCU would actually move to #2 ahead of both Florida and Texas.  Other big movers since the bowls started include Boise State down 3 due to their past opponents doing poorly, Nebraska up 6 after their shutout, Miami down 5 after their loss and the ACC's poor showing thus far, BYU up 16 after their win and the Mountain West doing well, Stanford down 7 after their loss and the Pac-10 doing a little under expectations, and it goes on similar to that for the rest of the teams in the conferences mentioned.

Interesting stuff.

Week 9 NBA Ratings/Rankings

If you read my earlier entry, you saw I've started posting college basketball ratings and rankings, and as you might expect I'm doing it for the NBA too.

Here are the current ratings/rankings through the 27th of December.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Boston	94.498	23-6	85.081	+1, -0.030
2	Cleveland	94.052	24-8	86.474	+4, +2.264
3	LA Lakers	93.671	24-5	85.141	-2, -1.000
4	Atlanta	93.410	21-8	86.029	-1, -0.364
5	Orlando	92.691	22-8	86.458	-1, +0.043
6	Dallas	91.912	22-9	86.734	-1, +0.060
7	Denver	91.035	20-11	85.701	+1, -0.121
8	Portland	90.709	20-12	86.876	+3, +1.088
9	Phoenix	90.682	19-12	87.476	-2, -0.967
9	San Antonio	90.682	17-11	85.926	+1, +0.473
11	Houston	89.894	18-13	88.619	-2, -0.848
12	Oklahoma City	89.423	15-14	88.251	+1, +0.377
13	Utah	89.392	17-13	86.965	-1, -0.062
14	Miami	88.305	16-12	86.473	+0, +1.460
15	Toronto	85.456	15-17	87.275	+6, +0.960
16	Memphis	85.272	13-16	87.183	+2, +0.316
17	Charlotte	85.236	11-17	86.615	+0, +0.274
18	Milwaukee	85.054	12-16	85.857	-3, -0.965
19	Sacramento	84.609	13-16	86.239	+1, -0.172
20	New Orleans	84.307	13-15	87.142	-1, -0.505
21	Detroit	83.755	11-19	87.725	-5, -1.564
22	Washington	83.200	10-18	86.679	+2, +0.364
23	LA Clippers	83.090	13-17	86.260	-1, -0.373
24	New York	83.014	11-19	86.224	-1, -0.269
25	Chicago	82.190	11-17	87.617	+1, +0.063
26	Philadelphia	81.633	7-22	87.443	-1, -0.645
27	Golden State	81.625	8-21	87.284	+1, -0.045
28	Indiana	81.187	9-20	86.783	-1, -0.626
29	Minnesota	77.918	7-24	87.237	+0, +0.640
30	New Jersey	74.051	2-28	87.302	+0, -0.201

2009 Week 17 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 17 (games played thru 27-Dec).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Ten games down, 24 to go!  And with some upsets and surprises in the bowl games, there have been some changes in the ratings and rankings.

There is no change at the very top with Alabama and Florida staying #1 and #2, but behind them there is a swap with TCU moving ahead of Texas due to prior opponents Wyoming, BYU, Utah, SMU, and Clemson doing well in their games.  It really couldn't have gone much better for TCU in this regard.  Texas actually improved their rating a bit too as Wyoming was a prior opponent, but not enough to stay #3.

The computer has continued the outstanding start to the bowl season going 7-3 against the spread.  It did slow down a bit as it was 7-1 but missed the last two games narrowly.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this. See the bowl game previews posted thus far and subscribe if you want to get them e-mailed to you well in advance of the games.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	92.075	13-0	72.228	+0, -0.094
2	Florida	87.273	12-1	71.321	+0, -0.096
3	TCU	87.033	12-0	66.152	+1, +1.255
4	Texas	86.689	13-0	69.736	-1, +0.208
5	Virginia Tech	82.733	9-3	72.894	+0, +0.122
6	Arkansas	81.826	7-5	72.947	+1, -0.048
7	Oregon	81.508	10-2	71.725	-1, -0.944
8	Cincinnati	81.225	12-0	66.615	+0, -0.498
9	LSU	81.030	9-3	72.535	+1, -0.174
10	Boise St	80.733	13-0	61.603	-1, -0.713
11	Oklahoma	80.682	7-5	70.887	+0, +0.418
12	Georgia Tech	80.131	11-2	72.728	+0, +0.125
13	Miami FL	79.356	9-3	71.832	+0, +0.181
14	Texas Tech	79.249	8-4	68.242	+0, +0.274
15	Clemson	78.727	9-5	71.231	+3, +0.430
16	Nebraska	78.256	9-4	69.224	+3, +0.126
17	Ohio State	78.051	10-2	65.902	+0, -0.302
18	Mississippi	78.014	8-4	70.268	+2, -0.016
19	Pittsburgh	77.707	10-3	68.846	+2, -0.118
20	Tennessee	77.578	7-5	70.814	+2, -0.221
21	Stanford	77.436	8-4	69.712	-5, -1.072
22	Brigham Young	77.371	11-2	67.671	+12, +2.704
23	Auburn	77.360	7-5	72.930	+0, -0.150
24	Penn State	76.677	10-2	64.096	+1, -0.286
25	Arizona	76.391	8-4	71.089	-1, -1.005
26	Southern Cal	76.293	9-4	70.925	+0, -0.461
27	Utah	76.057	10-3	66.851	+8, +1.532
28	Oregon St	76.033	8-5	70.345	-13, -2.823
29	Oklahoma St	76.023	9-3	68.970	-2, +0.177
30	North Carolina	75.628	8-5	69.982	-2, +0.045
31	Georgia	75.281	7-5	73.886	-1, -0.147
32	West Virginia	75.231	9-3	69.558	+0, +0.083
33	South Carolina	75.163	7-5	73.735	-2, -0.046
34	Iowa	75.154	10-2	67.568	-5, -0.354
35	Connecticut	74.802	7-5	69.057	-2, -0.171
36	Mississippi St	74.444	5-7	73.566	+1, +0.010
37	Kentucky	74.020	7-6	70.272	-1, -0.494
38	Rutgers	73.048	9-4	62.564	+1, +0.003
39	Florida St	72.947	6-6	73.465	+1, +0.260
40	Houston	72.727	10-3	64.046	+8, +0.824
41	California	72.509	8-5	70.810	-3, -1.563
42	Texas A&M	72.475	6-6	69.962	+3, +0.165
43	Missouri	72.238	8-4	68.628	+0, -0.192
44	Central Michigan	72.166	11-2	60.640	-3, -0.431
45	Air Force	72.100	7-5	64.900	+6, +0.723
46	Boston College	71.837	8-5	69.152	-4, -0.683
47	Wisconsin	71.777	9-3	65.421	-1, -0.346
48	Wake Forest	71.546	5-7	71.072	+1, -0.027
49	Washington	71.330	5-7	71.773	-5, -1.076
50	Notre Dame	71.329	6-6	69.307	-3, -0.627
51	South Florida	71.108	7-5	67.235	+1, -0.020
52	East Carolina	70.953	9-4	67.101	+2, +0.809
53	UCLA	70.572	6-6	71.724	-3, -0.844
54	Navy	70.142	9-4	65.080	+1, +0.192
55	Michigan St	69.329	6-6	66.852	+1, -0.327
56	Troy	68.815	9-3	62.694	+2, +0.106
57	Kansas	68.718	5-7	69.736	+2, +0.203
58	Arizona St	68.405	4-8	68.791	-1, -1.009
59	Middle Tennessee St	68.023	10-3	60.745	+2, +0.174
60	Nevada	67.836	8-5	64.057	-7, -2.631
61	Virginia	67.794	3-9	73.414	+1, +0.073
62	Minnesota	67.585	6-6	69.359	-2, -0.319
63	Iowa St	67.553	6-6	66.766	+0, +0.020
64	Kansas St	67.488	6-6	67.622	+0, +0.013
65	Central Florida	67.240	8-5	65.674	+4, +0.561
66	Southern Miss	66.886	7-6	63.043	+7, +0.590
67	SMU	66.738	8-5	64.703	+16, +3.208
68	Fresno St	66.673	8-5	64.704	-3, -0.617
69	Temple	66.663	9-3	60.449	-2, -0.222
70	Baylor	66.612	4-8	71.176	+0, +0.051
71	Purdue	66.570	5-7	67.446	-5, -0.339
72	Duke	66.498	5-7	68.123	-1, +0.063
73	Northwestern	66.407	8-4	62.780	-5, -0.297
74	North Carolina St	66.232	5-7	67.353	+0, -0.022
75	Bowling Green	65.650	7-5	63.673	+1, -0.152
76	Ohio U.	65.633	9-5	62.404	-4, -0.728
77	Louisiana Tech	65.441	4-8	65.002	-2, -0.652
78	Marshall	65.094	7-6	66.464	+2, +1.267
79	Syracuse	64.956	4-8	68.726	-2, -0.126
80	Wyoming	64.296	7-6	68.311	+0, +0.469
81	Northern Illinois	64.221	7-5	58.537	-3, -0.359
82	Maryland	63.872	2-10	70.720	-3, -0.086
83	Colorado	63.859	3-9	70.523	-1, +0.102
84	Alabama-Birmingham	63.621	5-7	66.088	+3, +0.778
85	Vanderbilt	63.286	2-10	71.575	+1, +0.004
86	Illinois	63.083	3-9	68.209	-2, -0.316
87	Michigan	63.026	5-7	63.951	-2, -0.322
88	Louisville	62.859	4-8	68.585	+0, +0.108
89	UNLV	62.801	5-7	66.745	+0, +0.189
90	Tulsa	62.694	5-7	63.580	+4, +0.924
91	Buffalo	62.084	5-7	62.242	-1, -0.147
92	UTEP	61.859	4-8	63.623	+4, +0.833
93	Utah St	61.817	4-8	66.037	-2, -0.371
94	Indiana	61.778	4-8	65.610	-2, -0.263
95	Idaho	61.393	7-5	63.581	-2, -0.602
96	San Diego St	61.341	4-8	65.851	+1, +0.358
97	Hawaii	60.799	6-7	62.463	-2, -0.502
98	Colorado St	60.052	3-9	67.447	+0, +0.176
99	Florida Atlantic	58.799	5-7	62.110	+1, +0.176
100	Kent St	58.717	5-7	60.127	-1, -0.241
101	Louisiana-Monroe	58.057	6-6	61.356	+1, -0.026
102	Western Michigan	57.999	5-7	60.338	-1, -0.242
103	Toledo	57.262	5-7	61.994	+0, -0.203
104	Memphis	56.996	2-10	66.576	+0, +0.659
105	Arkansas St	55.649	4-8	59.152	+1, +0.089
106	Louisiana-Lafayette	55.643	6-6	60.787	-1, +0.071
107	Army	55.486	5-7	60.346	+0, +0.111
108	Ball St	54.450	2-10	62.075	+1, -0.201
109	Tulane	54.446	3-9	65.458	+2, +0.877
110	Washington St	54.371	1-11	72.445	-2, -0.423
111	Akron	53.617	3-9	61.999	-1, -0.268
112	Miami OH	53.269	1-11	66.968	+0, -0.287
113	Rice	53.188	2-10	67.415	+4, +0.758
114	New Mexico	53.124	1-11	68.829	+1, +0.385
115	North Texas	53.122	2-10	60.942	-2, +0.021
116	Florida Int'l	52.576	3-9	64.988	+0, +0.051
117	San Jose St	52.252	2-10	66.431	-3, -0.585
118	New Mexico St	50.476	3-10	63.434	+0, -0.344
119	Western Kentucky	46.095	0-12	61.818	+0, +0.073
120	Eastern Michigan	45.457	0-12	63.153	+0, -0.204

Week 7 College Basketball Ratings/Rankings

Yes, I am now tracking college basketball!  Presently just ratings/rankings are posted but I'm working on doing predictions and projections too and hope to have a newsletter soon.  Let me know what you'd be interested in seeing by leaving a comment.

As there are many more division I college basketball teams than I-A football teams, I won't list the full rankings on the blog but will just include the top-50 here.  See the full list on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Texas	99.115	11-0	77.527	+0, +0.352
2	Syracuse	98.203	12-0	74.595	+0, -0.397
3	Duke	96.775	9-1	78.763	+0, -0.759
4	Kansas	94.972	11-0	74.442	+0, +0.820
5	West Virginia	94.293	10-0	79.199	+0, +1.023
6	Kansas St	92.445	10-1	79.457	+0, -0.727
7	Purdue	91.911	11-0	74.864	+0, -0.028
8	Kentucky	90.258	13-0	76.170	+12, +1.531
9	Villanova	90.130	11-1	75.947	+3, -0.315
10	Georgetown DC	90.043	9-1	77.559	+16, +1.665
11	Temple	89.792	9-2	81.985	+3, +0.272
12	Minnesota	89.737	9-3	75.003	+1, +0.198
13	Mississippi	89.560	10-2	77.609	-2, -0.950
14	Clemson	89.478	11-2	76.763	+4, +0.645
15	Brigham Young	89.475	12-1	74.279	+14, +1.461
16	North Carolina	89.466	9-3	77.816	+21, +2.261
17	California	89.296	6-4	83.501	-7, -1.494
18	Mississippi St	89.238	10-2	75.737	+6, +0.759
19	Michigan St	89.079	9-3	77.793	-3, +0.041
20	Miami FL	88.791	11-1	72.443	-3, -0.046
21	Alabama-Birmingham	88.782	11-1	76.092	+9, +0.787
22	Ohio State	88.750	10-2	72.695	-7, -0.633
23	Connecticut	88.444	9-2	77.683	+2, +0.035
24	Memphis	88.329	8-2	72.433	-2, -0.280
25	St Mary's CA	88.326	10-2	79.064	-17, -3.026
26	New Mexico	88.236	12-1	77.150	-17, -2.567
27	Old Dominion	88.216	8-4	79.470	+24, +2.325
28	Wake Forest	87.841	8-2	76.797	+5, +0.021
29	Texas A&M	87.834	8-3	79.991	-10, -0.940
30	Washington	87.828	9-2	78.184	+5, +0.540
31	Missouri	87.769	9-3	74.257	+24, +2.377
32	Northwestern	87.589	10-1	74.723	+6, +0.525
33	Wisconsin	87.546	10-2	76.838	-6, -0.603
34	Gonzaga	87.130	7-3	80.935	+2, -0.108
35	Seton Hall	86.994	9-2	73.057	+7, +0.335
36	Marquette	86.992	9-3	73.283	+8, +0.502
37	Georgia Tech	86.788	9-2	74.774	+15, +0.907
38	Texas Tech	86.775	10-1	75.089	+7, +0.355
39	Butler	86.705	8-4	83.032	+1, -0.112
40	Tennessee	86.496	9-2	74.818	+16, +1.122
41	St John's NY	86.277	10-2	77.555	-18, -2.304
42	Rhode Island	86.262	9-1	77.083	+5, +0.028
43	Xavier OH	86.106	7-4	80.200	-2, -0.644
44	Dayton	86.057	9-2	78.512	+14, +0.821
45	Cincinnati	86.034	8-3	76.773	+4, +0.078
46	Pittsburgh	86.015	10-2	76.606	+24, +1.445
47	William & Mary	85.983	7-2	81.175	-4, -0.631
48	Northern Iowa	85.965	9-1	75.736	+5, +0.229
49	Cornell NY	85.901	9-2	81.253	+22, +1.528
50	Florida	85.869	8-3	75.241	-29, -2.762

Bowl Games Thus Far

The bowl games played thus far have been entertaining and there have been a few upsets, as evidenced by the computer and Vegas doing poorly picking winners, but I'm please to say that the computer is cleaning up against the spread going 7-1 thus far.

I've posted a summary for all the bowl game previews which are posted right around the start of each game, and if you want to get them sooner, subscribe to the newsletter and get the rest of the previews well in advance of the games, and also get all the details for the rest of the NFL season.

BC and USC have just started so take a look at the preview for that game here.

2009 Week 16 NFL Preview

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

With 2 weeks to go in the season, the playoff picture is coming in to focus, but there are a few teams still trying to make it in and others wanting to secure a top seed so we still have some interesting games this weekend.

The full predictions each week are at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-predictions but below is a discussion of some of the interesting games.  These games all picked by the current computer ratings located here.

The computer is coming off 3 great weeks going 11-5, 12-4, and 10-6 against the spread making the season total 133-86-5.  See full records by week here and if you are interested in additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, locks, performance charts, and more, see this where you can subscribe to a weekly newsletter.

In the highlighted games last week, the computer went 2-1 ATS.  Let's see how it does this week.


In what is possibly a loser out situation, certainly for the Steelers, Baltimore visits Pittsburgh with the home team favored by 3.  The computer is picking the upset here, narrowly, with Baltimore the pick by 0.6.

Two teams presently in the playoffs and wanting to stay there are Denver and Philly, and with the former visiting the latter, the Eagles have the better shot of staying there, Vegas picking them by 6.5 and the computer by 7.6.
Jacksonville is presently 7th in the AFC and does not control their own destiny, but if they were able to beat the Patriots this weekend, with Cleveland up last they have a great shot at 9-7, and with Baltimore and Denver having tough games this week, could be positioned well.  The trouble is New England is favored by 7.5 and my computer says that isn't near enough setting the margin at 11.5.



Enjoy the games.

Early Superbowl Predictions

With 2 weeks to go before we know the playoff teams for sure, we actually have a pretty good idea of who will make it and so I thought it would be interesting to plug the current projected playoff contenders into my Superbowl projections and see what popped out.

Using my computer's current projections the AFC teams are Indianaplis, San Diego, New England, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Denver, and in the NFC they are New Orleans, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona, Green Bay, and Dallas.  By going through all the permutations of who could meet who, the chance of each scenario occurring, and the chance a team wins the various games, my computer can calculate the chance that any given team gets to the Superbowl and also wins it.

With that as a lead in, let's just get to the results.  From the table below, using the week 15 ratings, it is no surprise Indianapolis and New Orleans are odds on favorites to get to the Superbowl, both at over a 50% chance.  As the Saints are rated slightly higher presently, they have a slightly better chance at getting there (57.5% to 54.2%) but interestingly the Colts have a better chance of winning the Superbowl.  This is because the rest of the NFC is a bit weaker in general than the AFC and the rest of those teams do have a 45.8% and 42.5% chance of being the opponent so that factors in.

It also isn't a surprise that the other division winners that would have home field advantage are the next 4.  Those teams that have to go on the road the first week have a pretty slim chance of getting to the Superbowl let alone winning it.

For what it's worth, last year at the end of the regular season Tennessee and Pittsburgh were virtually tied at 19.7% and 19.4% chance of winning and Arizona had only a 6% chance of even getting to the big game.  It is interesting that that is right about where Arizona is again this year!

I'll update these next week and then again at the end of the regular season.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
Indianapolis	0.542	0.319
New Orleans	0.575	0.238
San Diego	0.212	0.129
New England	0.146	0.084
Minnesota	0.180	0.067
Philadelphia	0.135	0.059
Baltimore	0.047	0.029
Cincinnati	0.033	0.023
Arizona	0.054	0.019
Denver	0.020	0.013
Green Bay	0.030	0.010
Dallas	0.026	0.010

2009 Week 15 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Week 15 of the NFL season is complete and with some surprising games there is some movements in the rankings.  The ratings are below but can always be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.

And there is only 1.  But remarkably they are not ranked #1!  The Saints did drop over 1.2 ratings points but had a bit lead coming in and the Colts also dropped 0.75 leaving them still about a rating point behind.

Behind them, New England remains #3 but beyond that we finally have some changes.  Minnesota drops all the way to #8 leaving room for the Eagles, Chargers, and Dallas to move up.  In the second 10, Atlanta and the Giants both move up 6 spots while the 49ers, Broncos, and Houston all drop quite a bit.

The computer had a third straight great week against the spread going 10-6 after 12-4 and 11-5 the last 2 weeks.  Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	90.327	13-1	80.495	+0, -1.202
2	Indianapolis	89.288	14-0	80.910	+0, -0.756
3	New England	87.253	9-5	82.445	+0, +0.348
4	Philadelphia	86.598	10-4	80.609	+1, +1.212
5	San Diego	85.309	11-3	80.012	+1, +0.277
6	Dallas	85.015	9-5	81.012	+6, +2.114
7	Baltimore	84.231	8-6	79.863	+0, +0.280
8	Minnesota	83.992	11-3	78.197	-4, -2.193
9	Arizona	83.125	9-5	79.751	-1, -0.619
10	NY Jets	82.984	7-7	81.693	-1, -0.282
11	Green Bay	82.871	9-5	78.252	-1, -0.352
12	Atlanta	82.503	7-7	82.997	+6, +1.386
13	NY Giants	82.492	8-6	81.960	+6, +1.686
14	Miami	82.294	7-7	83.643	+3, +0.143
15	Houston	82.183	7-7	80.798	-4, -0.811
16	Cincinnati	82.174	9-5	79.723	+0, -0.080
17	Tennessee	82.120	7-7	82.051	-2, -0.379
18	Denver	81.970	8-6	81.314	-4, -0.650
19	San Francisco	81.481	6-8	80.895	-6, -1.189
20	Carolina	81.267	6-8	82.588	+3, +2.290
21	Pittsburgh	80.592	7-7	79.199	-1, -0.051
22	Buffalo	79.331	5-9	81.934	-1, -0.077
23	Jacksonville	78.753	7-7	80.747	-1, -0.402
24	Washington	77.696	4-10	80.396	+0, -0.514
25	Chicago	76.656	5-9	80.032	+0, -0.963
26	Tampa Bay	76.305	2-12	82.854	+3, +2.218
27	Oakland	75.490	5-9	81.563	+1, +1.240
28	Seattle	75.054	5-9	79.522	-2, -2.025
29	Cleveland	74.260	3-11	80.957	+1, +0.656
30	Kansas City	73.798	3-11	80.467	-3, -0.565
31	St Louis	71.213	1-13	80.577	+0, -0.681
32	Detroit	69.479	2-12	80.647	+0, -0.751