Playoff format change for 2018 Seattle area 40 & over league - 31% fewer teams will advance than last year

January tends to be a slower tennis month for USTA play as some areas aren't playing at all, and those that are tend to begin play full force mid or late in the month.  Thus, I've been a bit delinquent in writing about thoughts or observations.

But as we exit January, things are ramping up and folks are getting reports (yes! I'm still doing them and ready for 2018), whether individual, team, recruiting, or flight.  As teams play, those vying for the lead in their flight start thinking about playoffs and what it will take to qualify.

In this area, there is a change for 2018 in my area, specifically the 40 & over league going on now has changed what teams and how many qualify for playoffs.

From the playoff draws already posted, we can see that for each gender and level, what used to be 6 to 8 or even 10 team draws is now generally just 4.  The change is that for the most part, it is just flight winners that advance to local playoffs instead of what used to be the 1st and 2nd place teams in each flight with just one 2nd place wildcard total across all the flights.  Here are the full scenarios.

Women

• 3.0 - Five teams advance, four flight winners and one 2nd place wildcard, this would have been eight teams in the past
• 3.5 - Six teams advance, five flight winners and one 2nd place wildcard, this would have been ten teams in the past
• 4.0 - Four teams advance, three flight winners and one 2nd place wildcard, this would have been six teams in the past
• 4.5+ - Four teams advance, the top-2 teams from each flight, just as was done in the past

Men

• 3.0 - Four teams advance, three flight winners and one 2nd place wildcard, this would have been six teams in the past
• 3.5 - Five teams advance, four flight winners and one 2nd place wildcard, this would have been eight teams in the past
• 4.0 - Four teams advance, three flight winners and one 2nd place wildcard, this would have been six teams in the past
• 4.5+ - Four teams advance, the top-2 teams from each flight, just as was done in the past

All told, this is 19 women's teams and 17 men's teams advancing, compared to 28 and 24, so a reduction of 31%.  That is a lot of players that won't get to experience playoffs this year that did last year.

I do not know the motivation for this change, but can speculate and consider the effects of this change.

First, it is going to reduce the number of matches that need to be hosted for local playoff weekend.  Where in the past they had to start on a Friday, sometimes even Thursday evening and some teams may have to play four matches in three or four days, the schedule now has only two matches on Friday and the rest on Saturday and Sunday, the longest path to winning being three matches and that only for a few teams.

This certainly eases the burden on the required courts and scheduling, and will also be cheaper for the USTA in that regard.  Will we see the team fee for playoffs go down as a result?  And it will make it less taxing for players likely reducing by one the number of matches to be played in a short period of time.  But some players may have relished the playing opportunity and as noted above, 31% fewer teams will get to experience playoffs.

Second, this puts more pressure on teams to do well in regular season play and puts a priority on winning every match if possible.  No longer can you have an early season loss or two and still have a shot at playoffs.  If you don't win that early season match against the top team, you are really in a hole and may need the top team to lose twice to have a shot.

This could mean captains will be less willing to play their full roster, instead wanting to run their best players out every match to avoid a slip-up that could cost a chance at playoffs.  If so, this is unfortunate as the other players may get to play less than before.

Of course, this is not necessarily a bad thing.  Encouraging teams to go all out could lead to stronger competition, and the top team that is undefeated with two matches to play may not be able to mail in the last two knowing they'd still qualify in second place.

Third, it is almost certain that a really good team is not going to make playoffs, perhaps at each gender and level.  If a team is missing some good players for a given match and comes away with an unexpected loss, they could go 8-1 or 9-1 and lose out to an undefeated team.

Yes, there is the provision for one 2nd place team to be a wildcard, but for that to be equitable it assumes flights are relatively balanced and the best 2nd place team will earn that wildcard.  The truth is that it is nearly impossible to have balanced flights and there will be a tough one with perhaps three playoff quality teams, and another flight with at most one, but the tough flight may beat up on each other and only one team advance while the 2nd place team with the best record may be weaker but benefit from being in a weak flight.

I'll try to do some analysis on strength of flights to see if there are any glaring inequities and what the result could be.

What do you think?

Does making the regular season more meaningful make for a better league?  If you can't win your flight you aren't going to do well at Sectionals and beyond so no harm done?  Is letting 2nd place teams go to playoffs like giving out participation medals?

Or is only taking 1st place teams (for the most part) not fair and make it so there is pressure on a captain to only play their good players?  Or does it unfairly advantage those teams that can stack their roster with ringers?  Or is the USTA just trying to save a buck on fewer matches/courts that have to be paid for?

Previewing the 2018 Pacific Northwest Seattle area 40 & over league

The 2018 40 & over league in the Seattle area started last night, but it is never too late for a quick preview.

This preview will identify the top team or two for each gender and level using the top-8 average for each team using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.

First, I'll take a look at the women's flights.

The 2.5 women have several strong teams, but TSCP-Davis is the pre-season favorite.  Keep in mind that there are usually lots of self-rates and improving players so lots of things can change.

At the 3.0 level, there are four flights so quite a few teams, but one stands above the rest going into the year and that is TCSP-McCaslin.

The 3.5 women has five flights so a lot of teams, but again, one stands above the rest and that is HBSQ-$mallz.

The 4.0 level once again has one team well ahead of the rest and it is  CP-Keogh, but they have a really big roster so how often will they play their best players.

The 4.5+ level has just two flights but one team, NTC-Ogborn, appears to be the favorite.

Next, on to the men.

The 3.0 men is tight with PL-Licholai and RBW-Rockets-Faloon but there are a few teams with a lot of self-rates so these two may or may not be the favorites.

There are four flights of 3.5 men and CP-Gents-Paulson is the favorite.

At the 4.0 level, NTC-SMACK-Reddy has a modest lead over the other teams, but it is close behind them.

Last, the 4.5+ level two teams, BETC-Submariners-Nguyen and NTC-Dalkin appear to be the favorites.

There you have it.  Favorites don't always win, so none of the other teams should get down if I didn't name them, and if anything, these favorites now have a target on their back so watch out!

If you'd like a full flight report for the flight your team is in, I can provide all of the details including full roster averages and top-8 averages, just contact me.

USTA League for 2018 is off and running

We aren't even a week into 2018, but USTA League matches are already being played.  In my area, our 40 & over Adult leagues started yesterday and other sections and districts have already started or will be soon.

With a new year comes aspirations for success and improvement, both individual and team, and my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports can help with preparation and tracking of both.

Individual reports provide detailed statistics, rating information, and a match by match chart to allow you to see how you've done overall and in different aspects of league play.  You can get a report for last year to see how you did and where you ended the year, or any other prior year for that matter, or as you play in 2018 can get reports throughout the year to monitor progress.

Team reports provide a nice summary of the ratings for an entire team along with records and courts played information, plus a partner report showing how each player has done with their different partners.  All of this can be very useful for a captain to size up how their players stack up and what partnerships work well, all useful in planning for a season.

A variation of a team report is a Team Recruiting Report but focuses on some aspects you want to know when recruiting for a team or before any matches have been played like records and ratings in singles vs doubles and in the different leagues.

Last, for captains wanting to scout opponents, Flight Reports give an informative summary of the overall and top-8 average ratings for all the teams in a flight so a captain can see who the strongest/weakest teams are, both top to bottom as well as if the best players are used.  With this in hand, a captain can know when they need their best players or when they can mix in others players to ensure players get matches in but the team results can be maximized.

Reports can be generated for any USTA League player, team, or flight.  If you are interested, contact me for more information or to request a report.

Conversations About Tennis with Carl Bialik - Podcast with me on USTA Ratings!

If you've followed sports/political statistics, you've probably come across Carl Bialik, a journalist who has written for the Wall Street Journal, Sports Illustrated, and FiveThirtyEight among others.  He has a passion for tennis though and has a regular podcast, Thirty Love: Conversations About Tennis, where he talks with guests on a variety of tennis related topics.

He contacted me recently about recording a podcast with him to discuss USTA League and NTRP ratings and I agreed, and you can now listen to it on his site or on iTunes.

Thanks Carl!

New Report! - Team Recruiting Report

It is December, 2017 year-end ratings have come out and now captains are working on rosters, deciding who to keep from last year, and what holes to fill and who to recruit to fill the gaps.

To aid in doing this research and recruiting, I've created a new report, a Team Recruiting Report.  It is similar to a team report, but breaks out a number of details a captain will find useful when forming a team, such as records and match ratings in singles vs doubles, and how those same two stats varied by league played in.

Here is an example:

Name	Level	W	L	Rating	Start	Courts	Singles	Doubles	18+	40+	55+
P1	4.5C/4.0C	9	10	4.05	3.65	1D-8 2D-3 3D-3		9-10 / 3.82	2-3 / 3.62	7-4 / 3.86
P2	4.5C/4.0C	12	2	4.02	3.8	1D-5 1S-2 2D-1 2S-5	7-1 / 3.97	5-1 / 4.09	6-2 / 4.05	6-0 / 3.98
P3	4.0C/4.0C	9	8	3.91	3.9	1D-2 1S-7 2D-2 3D-1	2-5 / 3.93	7-3 / 3.95	0-1 /	9-7 / 3.94
P4	4.0C/4.0C	11	3	3.85	3.84	1S-8 2S-3	11-3 / 3.98		4-2 / 3.98	7-1 / 3.98
P5	4.0C/4.0C	3	1	3.8	3.8	1D-3 2D-1		3-1 / 3.8		3-1 / 3.8
P6	4.0C/4.0C	6	4	3.79	3.83	1D-1 2D-1 3D-4		6-4 / 3.74		2-0 / 3.82	1-1 / 3.63
P7	4.0C/4.0C	9	9	3.75	3.92	1D-2 1S-3 2D-5 2S-5 3D-1	3-6 / 3.89	6-3 / 3.92	2-4 / 3.78	7-5 / 3.95
P8	4.0C/4.0C	5	6	3.75	3.73	1D-3 2D-1 3D-6		5-6 / 3.69	3-4 / 3.73	2-2 / 3.61
P9	4.0C/4.0C	5	7	3.74	3.75	1D-5 2D-2 3D-2		5-7 / 3.71	2-4 / 3.82	3-3 / 3.63
P10	4.0C/4.0C	9	8	3.73	3.7	1D-3 1S-1 2D-4 3D-3	1-1 / 3.59	8-7 / 3.79	5-4 / 3.87	4-4 / 3.7
P11	4.0C/4.0C	7	9	3.72	3.63	1D-7 2D-1 3D-5		7-9 / 3.71	2-2 / 3.79	1-5 / 3.63	4-2 / 3.78
P12	4.0C/4.0C	3	2	3.69	3.7	1D-2 2D-1		3-2 / 3.69		3-2 / 3.69
P13	4.0C/4.0C	1	1	3.67	3.67	2D-2		1-1 / 3.77		1-1 / 3.77
P14	4.0C/4.0C	9	9	3.63	3.67	1D-9 2D-3 3D-1	0-1 /	9-8 / 3.71	2-5 / 3.76	4-3 / 3.67	3-1 / 3.7
P15	4.0C/4.0C	7	4	3.6	3.71	1S-2 2D-1 2S-4 3D-4	4-2 / 3.77	3-2 / 3.64	3-2 / 3.67	4-2 / 3.75
Total		105	83

This gives a nice summary of an entire team or list of players so you can see who your singles players are, and if someone's rating is being buoyed or hurt by doing well or poorly in a particular league.

This report also includes the partner report showing how many times each player played with another candidate/rostered player and how they did together.

If you are interested in a recruiting report, contact me at ratings@teravation.net.  Since this is a new report, I'd love to get feedback and will be discounting the price for a few weeks while I iron out any issues and tailor it to what folks are looking for.

Breaking News - USTA League 2018 Nationals Schedule Released - Texas and Las Vegas added to the mix!

It was just brought to my attention that the schedule and locations for 2018 USTA League Nationals has shown up in places.  The link on TennisLink to the Nationals schedule still goes to the 2017 schedule, but the site I was pointed to is a USTA site so I have no reason to believe it isn't accurate.  And last year the schedule showed up in early January so the timing is similar.

So yes, we are talking about 2018 Nationals already!

After the weather related fiascos of this year including many delays, shortening of matches to pro-sets, short sets, and no-ad scoring, and even declaring co-champs when semis and finals couldn't be played, and yes, no semis meant as many as four co-champs, I'm sure many are wanting to see if there are any changes, and there are!

First, here is the schedule:

Date	Location	Surface	Event
Oct. 5-7	Orlando, FL	Hard	18 & over 5.0+
Oct. 5-7	Arlington, TX	Hard	18 & over 4.0
Oct. 12-14	Orlando, FL	Hard	18 & over 3.5 and 2.5W
Oct. 12-14	Las Vegas, NV	Hard	18 & over 3.0
Oct. 12-14	Arlington, TX	Hard	18 & over 4.5
Oct. 19-21	Las Vegas, NV	Hard	40 & over 4.5+
Oct. 19-21	Arlington, TX	Hard	40 & over 3.5
Oct. 19-21	Orlando, FL	Clay	55 & over 6.0 and 8.0
Oct. 26-28	Las Vegas, NV	Hard	40 & over 4.0
Oct. 26-28	Mobile, AL	Hard	40 & over 3.0
Oct. 26-28	Orlando, FL	Clay	55 & over 7.0 and 9.0
Nov. 9-11	Mobile, AL	Hard	Mixed 18 & over 6.0 thru 10.0
Nov. 16-18	Orlando, FL	Hard	Mixed 40 & over 6.0 thru 9.0

As far as the age groups go, this is a similar schedule to 2017 and past years with 18+ going first, then 40+, and then 55+ and Mixed.

Regarding locations, Mobile is unfortunately still a host site but will be used just twice, 40+ 3.0 and 18+ Mixed, although it is all of 18+ Mixed so should there be any bad weather that weekend, a lot of tennis could be impacted.

But the big news is two new sites that haven't been used recently, or perhaps ever, in Arlington and Las Vegas.  But Arizona is now completely missing, California is still missing, and Ft. Lauderdale is gone after one year and significant delays due to weather.

In adding Vegas and Arlington, the USTA was perhaps reading my blog and saw the poll I did earlier this year where response was that Las Vegas and Texas should be added in the future!

Note that as you might expect, Orlando means the USTA National Campus.  Las Vegas will be at the Darling Tennis Center, Arlington will be at the Arlington Tennis Center, and Mobile is where it has always been.

I think this is an improvement over last year, while Mobile still shows up it is limited to two weekends and Ft. Lauderdale is gone.  I think Vegas makes sense and Arlington does too.  It is still a little disappointing to not have Arizona or California in the rotation, but this does have some events in the West or Central regions making the travel requirements for folks a little more balanced.

There you have it, what do you think?

2017 USTA League Year-End Rating Analysis - 5.0 Bump Up/Down Percentages - Interesting Tennis League Stats

I already wrote about the 2017 year-end bump up/down percentages and also by gender, and started looking at levels with the 4.0 men and women, 3.5 men and women, 4.5 men and women, 3.0 men and women, and now the 5.0 men and women.

First, the 5.0 women by section.

As you might imagine, at the 5.0 level very few players are bumped up, and indeed just a few sections had a noticeable number bumped up and even those were in the los single digit percentages.  There were a lot of bump downs though, over 15% in most sections and well over 50% in Hawaii.

And then the 5.0 men by section.

The stats for the men are similar to the women, but not as extreme.  As many as 4% were bumped up and more sections had noticeable bump ups, and Hawaiian men only had about 33% bumped down and some other sections below 15%.

What do you think?  What does this mean for 5.0 play in your section in 2018?