USTA League Nationals are just a couple months away now, and with many of the divisions/levels
now being hosted in Florida or Alabama, it got me thinking about who traditionally has done well at Nationals and if the change of location is going to affect the who end up being the regular contenders.
Now, I can't very well write about how the trend has changed, not even one year at the new sites has been completed, but I will speculate a bit at the end of this post. But first, we have to have a baseline to compare or start our discussion.
As a reminder, the USTA is made up of 17 different sections, each one able to send a team to Nationals in each division at each level. These 17 teams are split into four flights, four with four teams and one with five teams. The winner of each flight advances to the semi-finals, the winner of those matches playing in the final while the losers play for third place.
I've kept track of 1st thru 4th at Nationals for
2013,
2014,
2015, and
2016 so you can take a look at each of those to see all the details. But for a simple baseline, to start I'll be taking a look at how many times since 2013 each section has had a team advance to the semi-finals and how many times they gone home with the championship banner.
So, here are the overall counts for both 18 & over and 40 & over divisions.
| Section | Semi-finalists | Champions |
|---|
| Southern | 37 | 14 |
| Pacific Northwest | 34 | 8 |
| Northern Cal | 32 | 5 |
| Texas | 27 | 9 |
| Southern Cal | 26 | 6 |
| Caribbean | 22 | 10 |
| Florida | 22 | 8 |
| Mid-Atlantic | 18 | 5 |
| Intermountain | 17 | 2 |
| Middle States | 16 | 2 |
| Midwest | 13 | 1 |
| New England | 13 | 1 |
| Eastern | 11 | 3 |
| Southwest | 9 | 2 |
| Hawaii | 8 | 2 |
| Missouri Valley | 5 | 1 |
| Northern | 5 | 0 |
One section stands out by both making the most semis and winning the most titles and that is
Southern. The
Pacific Northwest and
Northern Cal are close behind in semis appearances but a bit back on titles.
Others that would probably be considered perennial contenders and having a number of titles include
Southern Cal,
Texas,
Florida,
Caribbean,
Mid-Atlantic, and
Intermountain.
Eastern and
Southwest also have multiple titles and did so in fewer semis appearances that the others above them on the list.
A handful of sections have not won a title during this four year period.
From this, it appears that southern and warm weather states fare the best, six of the top seven fit that description, which is probably not a surprise as they typically have more playing opportunities and can play year-round or close to it. The Pacific Northwest being so high is a bit of an anomaly as it is not southern nor warm weather.
It is interesting that tiny Caribbean does so well, and that highly populated areas like
Middle States,
New England, and Eastern are not higher up.
So with that as a baseline, what might happen as a result of the majority of Nationals no longer being in the California and Arizona desert? I think there are likely four different factors to consider.
First is travel.
At first glance, one can see that what was a pretty convenient trip is going to be a far longer one for three of the top-four sections while it will be a lot more convenient for the top section and sections five through eight. In general more sections will have shorter travel than before. This could possibly be an equalizer for those teams lower on the list, but it could just make things easier for four of the top-seven teams and they could move even higher.
Second is weather.
The desert southwest is warm to hot during Nationals, but very dry which generally makes scheduling matches easy as there are rarely if ever weather delays. Some might not be accustom to the dry heat though.
The new locations for Nationals are certainly not dry but could still be very warm. Hot and humid conditions may prevail and weather delays may become likely. Who can deal with the weather and possibly shortened matches will be key. The teams from the west and southwest may be at a disadvantage and those in the southeast that are used to these conditions may be at an advantage.
Third is court surfaces.
With the 2017 Nationals clay courts will be used for several of the divisions and levels. Hard courts are still used at the majority though. So this may be a less important factor, but some sections do not play on clay let alone have clay courts available to practice on. This will likely again be a negative for west coast, southwest, mountain, northern, and other sections and a big advantage for teams in the south, southeast, and east coast where clay courts are used and available.
Fourth is timezone.
I think everyone will admit traveling west is easier than traveling east. Going east takes the whole day with the timezone change, and west coast folks then have to be up three hours earlier with 7am feeling like 4am. Going west the timezone change gives you extra hours and 7am feels like 8am, 9am, or 10am depending where you are coming from. So going east makes it harder on west coast sections or requires they go earlier to acclimate.
With all the factors, my hypothesis is that we will see a shift in which sections do well at Nationals. The west coast and southwest teams may drop a bit and others, particularly those in the south and southeast will benefit. We may not see this from just a single year of play, but with several years of data we'll see if it comes true.
What do you expect will happen?
For those that are interested, to break it out by division, here is just 18+.
| Section | Semi-finalists | Champions |
|---|
| Southern | 23 | 9 |
| Pacific Northwest | 22 | 6 |
| Northern Cal | 19 | 4 |
| Southern Cal | 19 | 4 |
| Texas | 16 | 6 |
| Caribbean | 15 | 6 |
| Florida | 14 | 3 |
| Mid-Atlantic | 11 | 3 |
| Intermountain | 10 | 2 |
| Midwest | 7 | 1 |
| New England | 7 | 0 |
| Eastern | 6 | 2 |
| Southwest | 6 | 0 |
| Northern | 4 | 0 |
| Middle States | 4 | 0 |
| Missouri Valley | 3 | 1 |
| Hawaii | 2 | 0 |
By and large the same order.
And for completeness, just 40+.
| Section | Semi-finalists | Champions |
|---|
| Southern | 15 | 5 |
| Northern Cal | 13 | 1 |
| Middle States | 12 | 2 |
| Pacific Northwest | 12 | 2 |
| Texas | 11 | 3 |
| Florida | 8 | 5 |
| Caribbean | 7 | 4 |
| Mid-Atlantic | 7 | 2 |
| Southern Cal | 7 | 2 |
| Intermountain | 7 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 6 | 2 |
| New England | 6 | 1 |
| Midwest | 6 | 0 |
| Eastern | 5 | 1 |
| Southwest | 3 | 2 |
| Missouri Valley | 2 | 0 |
| Northern | 1 | 0 |
There is more of a change here, but many of the top sections from 18+ show up here too.
