When will USTA NTRP Year End Ratings be out? Get a report while you wait

[this post was for 2012 year-end ratings, click here to see information for 2013]

Many people are expecting that the USTA will publish year-end ratings tomorrow at 5pm, but TennisLink doesn't seem to be announcing that like prior years.  The speculation is based on it being the Monday after Thanksgiving which is when the ratings typically come out, but this year, Thanksgiving is the earliest it can be making the Monday after only November 26th.  So, it could be that they won't be ready until the following Monday December 3rd.

If that is the case, we'll all have to wait an extra week, but that also gives everyone another 7 days to get a preview and details of what goes into their rating from an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Report.

An example of a report is below.  It shows the current NTRP level of the player, what their Estimated Dynamic NTRP is (what I calculate), some match/set/game statistics, the best and worst match results and dates of the match, and the highest and lowest Estimated Dynamic NTRP and corresponding dates.

But the cool part is the chart that shows each match rating and what the Estimated Dynamic NTRP is as a result of the match.  This allows you to see specifics about matches and trends throughout the year.


Jane Doe
Current NTRP: 3.0
Estimated DNTRP: 2.76
Match Record: 4-8
Sets Won-Lost: 13-16
Games Won-Lost: 112-117
Best Match Result: 3.04 on 2012-03-18
Worst Match Result: 2.53 on 2012-03-11
Highest Estimated DNTRP: 2.86 on 2012-01-29
Lowest Estimated DNTRP: 2.73 on 2012-03-11

I've done reports for players in the Pacific Northwest, Southern Cal, Northern Cal, Inter-Mountain, Texas, Midwest, Southern, Florida Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast sections but should be able to do for most any section.

Contact me to learn more or if you have any questions.

The voters who dropped Oregon after 24 point win on road against #16 - East Coast or anti-Oregon bias?

In analyzing the AP poll, I discovered that Oregon lost 4 points while Florida gained 91 and moved ahead of them.  This after both won on the road against similar opponents (Oregon State was and still is #16, Florida State was #10 and is now #13), Oregon winning far more convincingly (by 24 vs 11 and Oregon game wasn't in doubt late, FSU had a chance in the 4th quarter).

To understand how this happened, I looked for the voters that flipped the two teams and here they are:

• Axe - Moved Florida from 7 to 5 and dropped Oregon from 6 to 7.
• Bohls - Moved Florida from 7 to 6 and dropped Oregon from 3 to 7!
• Cripe - Moved Florida from 6 to 3 and dropped Oregon from 4 to 7.
• Emerson - Swapped the teams at 5 and 6.
• Fowler - Moved Florida from 6 to 4 and dropped Oregon from 5 to 7.
• Giglio - Moved Florida 5 to 2 and dropped Oregon 4 to 5.
• Gimino - Moved Florida 6 to 4 and kept Oregon at 5.
• Hlas - Moved Florida 7 to 2 and kept Oregon at 4.
• Hurt - Moved Florida 7 to 4 and dropped Oregon 4 to 5.
• Lesmerises - Moved Florida 5 to 4 and dropped Oregon 4 to 6.
• Marcello - Swapped the teams at 5 and 6.
• Murray - Moved Florida 6 to 3 and dropped Oregon 4 to 5.
• Staples - Moved Florida 12(!) to 4 and dropped Oregon 4 to 5.

Some of these moves are to put it bluntly, baffling.  Bohls thought Oregon was still #3 last week, and they go out and beat Oregon State by 24 on the road and drop them 4 spots?  And he actually moves Oregon state up from #19 to #18 with the loss?

Staples thought FSU was a top-5 team (had them #5 last week) despite all the evidence to the contrary, and when proved wrong with Florida beat them, moves Florida, who he had #12 all the way to #4, higher than the overrated FSU team.

It was pointed out to me that Oregon's game was televised only regionally while Florida's was nationally televised, and I can understand the general public being swayed by that, but I thought the AP voters could be held to a higher standard.

Analyzing the 11/25/12 AP Poll - Bias against Oregon?

Here is week 13 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 13 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

The top-4 remain the same this week with very little change for each.  Alabama gained 1 point, Georgia 15, and Ohio State 2.  Where it gets interesting is behind them.

Last week Oregon was #5 with a 75 point lead over #6 Florida.  This week, Florida turned that around to a 20 point lead over Oregon.  Oregon beat a then and still #16 Oregon State on the road by 24 and actually lost 4 points.  That isn't to say that Florida didn't do well, they did win by 11 on the road against a then #10 and now #13 FSU.  But both win on road against similar competition, and the team that wins by more loses points while the one that wins by less gains 91?  There seems to be some serious bias against Oregon with these voters.  Oregon even got a 2nd place vote this week, they didn't last, and lost points.

Ohio State still has the largest spread of the top teams garnering 2nd to 12th place votes.  You have to drop all the way to Stanford to get to the next team getting a 12th place vote.  And like last week, Texas A&M is getting a 2nd place vote ahead of a bunch of 1-loss (and Ohio State with no losses) teams.

College Football Week 13 Ratings and Rankings - Oregon stays #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Oregon stays #1 this week, in fact increasing their lead over Alabama who also improved slightly.  Florida improves the most of any team in the top-10 and moves ahead of Texas A&M to #3.

Oregon's improvement is largely from their win over a good Oregon State team while Alabama played a weak Auburn team but benefited from the SEC winning in general over some non-SEC opponents (Florida over FSU, Georgia over Georgia Tech, South Carolina over Clemson).  And while Florida improved their rating the most, Georgia made the biggest move up to #7, up 4 spots.

What about Notre Dame?  Their rating did improve after their win over USC and they are up to #5, but my computer still says they aren't the best team in the country.

The BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings do have Notre Dame on top and they are followed by Florida and Ohio State, with Oregon up to #4 ahead of Alabama at #5.  A computer that can't take margin of victory into account has to ding Alabama for a weak Auburn opponent while Oregon benefits from a strong Oregon State team.  We'll see what the actual BCS computers do later today.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	93.983	11-1	73.073	+0, +1.273
2	Alabama	91.672	11-1	71.655	+0, +0.408
3	Florida	89.288	11-1	75.872	+1, +2.240
4	Texas A&M	88.393	10-2	74.031	-1, +1.033
5	Notre Dame	87.977	12-0	73.981	+1, +1.527
6	Kansas St	87.369	10-1	73.988	-1, +0.341
7	Georgia	87.079	11-1	71.780	+4, +1.798
8	Stanford	86.419	10-2	77.222	+1, +0.892
9	South Carolina	86.368	10-2	73.698	+3, +2.063
10	LSU	85.709	10-2	74.194	-2, +0.075
11	Oklahoma	85.225	9-2	73.541	-1, -0.186
12	Oregon St	84.398	8-3	78.310	-5, -1.845
13	Oklahoma St	83.737	7-4	72.357	+2, -0.014
14	Ohio State	83.354	12-0	69.689	+0, -0.444
15	Southern Cal	82.831	7-5	76.039	-2, -1.393
16	Utah St	81.936	10-2	66.110	+2, -0.504
17	Florida St	81.475	10-2	64.626	-1, -1.868
18	Texas	81.228	8-3	74.529	-1, -1.503
19	Nebraska	81.047	10-2	70.493	+2, -0.494
20	Clemson	80.228	10-2	67.731	+0, -2.070
21	Arizona St	80.176	7-5	74.041	+4, +0.890
22	Arizona	80.138	7-5	75.060	-3, -2.163
23	Baylor	80.088	6-5	76.182	+0, +0.663
24	Michigan	79.775	8-4	72.775	+0, +0.429
25	UCLA	79.677	9-3	73.924	-3, -1.745

The ever colorful NFL Week 11 Projected Records Chart

I introduced a colorful wins chart last week and I've updated it with this week's projected records.  It is a bit busy and has a ton of info in it, but find the segment for your favorite team and get a feel for how many wins they might get to.

NFL Week 11 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projections - Giants could be the team left out

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.  This is being done to see how things would be different if the officials had made the right call.  I've done this a few times this season for this case because I don't recall there ever being a single controversial call that was the clear deciding factor in the game, and this has clear playoff implications.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 11 ratings.  You'll see that Green Bay would be up 3 spots to #2 and Seattle would drop just one spot to #8.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	89.448	9-1	80.050	+0, +0.110
2	Green Bay	87.992	8-2	81.772	+3, +0.844
3	New England	87.899	7-3	80.803	-1, -0.095
4	Denver	87.793	7-3	81.759	-1, -0.027
5	San Francisco	87.489	7-2-1	81.385	-1, -0.014
6	Atlanta	85.247	9-1	78.673	+0, -0.037
7	Chicago	85.044	7-3	81.268	+1, +0.085
8	Seattle	84.322	5-5	82.437	-1, -0.739
9	Baltimore	83.966	8-2	79.091	+0, -0.023
10	NY Giants	82.856	6-4	80.417	+0, -0.053
11	Tampa Bay	82.844	6-4	78.847	+0, -0.056
12	Pittsburgh	81.909	6-4	79.043	+0, -0.034
13	Minnesota	81.565	6-4	79.683	+0, -0.085
14	Dallas	81.382	5-5	82.204	+0, -0.104
15	New Orleans	81.126	5-5	80.080	+0, +0.010
16	NY Jets	80.533	4-6	82.566	+0, -0.086
17	Washington	80.143	4-6	80.775	+0, -0.045
18	Cincinnati	80.115	5-5	79.153	+0, -0.021
19	Detroit	80.083	4-6	81.730	+0, +0.001
20	San Diego	79.788	4-6	79.821	+0, -0.023
21	Arizona	79.501	4-6	82.577	+0, -0.021
22	St Louis	79.154	3-6-1	82.615	+0, -0.008
23	Miami	79.143	4-6	80.274	+0, -0.011
24	Buffalo	78.805	4-6	82.126	+1, -0.028
25	Carolina	78.775	2-8	82.760	-1, -0.107
26	Indianapolis	78.345	6-4	80.137	+0, +0.074
27	Tennessee	76.808	4-6	82.203	+0, -0.001
28	Cleveland	75.970	2-8	80.349	+0, -0.025
29	Philadelphia	74.156	3-7	81.218	+0, -0.035
30	Oakland	73.497	3-7	80.559	+0, -0.012
31	Jacksonville	73.208	1-9	82.388	+0, +0.074
32	Kansas City	70.568	1-9	80.709	+0, -0.022

And here are the projected records where you see Green Bay winning the division outright (in the current actual projections they are projected to win the tie-breaker with Chicago at 11-5), and Seattle would fall to 9-7 and be tied with Dallas or the Giants for the last wildcard rather than winning it outright.  Should they tie with Dallas, they have the advantage with a head to head win, but should it be with the Giants, they'd likely lose out on conference record.

So, depending on how the NFC East plays out, there may be no change in the playoffs teams and seedings due to the bad call, or the Giants could be the team that loses a playoff spot because of it.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	14-2	34.4	13.2	32.8
Atlanta	13-3	33.3	23.1	24.8
Green Bay	12-4	34.6	31.2	18.2
Denver	12-4	45.7	31.1	19.5
San Francisco	11-4	32.3	18.8	28.1
Baltimore	11-5	30.4	28.5	17.9
New England	11-5	33.4	24.0	24.1
Chicago	11-5	29.9	16.1	29.3
Pittsburgh	10-6	33.7	17.7	29.6
NY Giants	9-7	33.2	25.6	22.2
Tampa Bay	9-7	35.9	25.4	23.3
Dallas	9-7	32.6	18.5	28.7
Seattle	9-7	32.8	18.4	28.7
Indianapolis	9-7	32.1	15.6	31.6
Cincinnati	8-8	32.5	26.3	21.2
Minnesota	8-8	34.2	23.1	25.4
New Orleans	8-8	31.1	17.2	29.8
NY Jets	7-9	31.3	26.7	20.2
San Diego	7-9	32.9	26.6	21.0
Buffalo	7-9	32.2	24.9	22.4
Washington	7-9	31.8	24.6	22.5
Miami	7-9	31.6	16.6	30.6
Arizona	6-10	32.3	30.2	16.6
Tennessee	6-10	31.8	30.2	16.4
Detroit	6-10	35.0	26.9	21.4
St Louis	5-10	33.0	25.7	21.9
Carolina	5-11	33.3	24.5	23.2
Oakland	5-11	36.7	23.9	24.8
Philadelphia	4-12	33.4	33.3	12.9
Cleveland	4-12	38.0	29.0	20.1
Jacksonville	3-13	33.6	22.4	26.1
Kansas City	2-14	40.1	27.5	22.1

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.

NFL Week 11 Projected Records - Things get clearer, especially in the AFC

The projected records after week 11 are now posted and listed below as well.

Atlanta and  Houston continue to lead the way as you might expect.  But behind them, it is tight with Denver at 12-4 then five teams projected to finish 11-5.

In the NFC, Atlanta is projected to have a first round bye and the 49ers have the inside track to the 2nd one with Green Bay and Chicago close behind with the Packers getting the nod for the division based on current tie-breakers.  The Giants would beat out the Cowboys, both 9-7, for the NFC East based on current tie-breakers and the Bears and Seahawks would pick up the wilcards.  Seattle does have a 21% chance of being 9-7 and Tampa Bay and Dallas have decent shots at 10-6, so this could all certainly change and is not a lock by any stretch.

The AFC is a bit clearer with all four division winners alone at 11-5 or better but Pittsburgh is close at 10-6 but really would need some help to get the division given the current tie-breakers.  The Colts, despite their bad loss, still hang on to the last wildcard and have only a 15% chance of 8-8, but the Bengals do have a 26% chance of 9-7 so this too isn't a lock.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	14-2	33.9	12.7	33.1
Atlanta	13-3	33.3	23.1	24.8
Denver	12-4	45.7	31.1	19.5
San Francisco	11-4-1	32.2	18.4	28.4
Baltimore	11-5	30.4	28.5	18.0
Green Bay	11-5	35.2	28.2	20.9
New England	11-5	33.5	24.3	23.8
Chicago	11-5	29.7	15.8	29.5
Seattle	10-6	34.0	21.2	26.7
Pittsburgh	10-6	33.7	17.7	29.6
NY Giants	9-7	33.1	26.1	21.6
Tampa Bay	9-7	35.9	25.5	23.1
Dallas	9-7	32.8	18.8	28.4
Indianapolis	9-7	32.0	15.4	31.7
Cincinnati	8-8	32.5	26.2	21.2
Minnesota	8-8	34.0	24.4	23.9
New Orleans	8-8	31.0	16.9	30.0
NY Jets	7-9	31.3	26.9	20.0
San Diego	7-9	32.9	26.5	21.1
Buffalo	7-9	32.3	24.6	22.8
Washington	7-9	31.8	24.6	22.6
Miami	7-9	31.4	16.1	31.1
Tennessee	6-10	31.5	30.3	16.1
Arizona	6-10	32.6	30.1	16.9
Detroit	6-10	34.7	27.3	20.9
St Louis	5-10-1	33.2	25.4	22.4
Carolina	5-11	33.3	24.8	22.9
Oakland	5-11	36.7	23.9	24.9
Philadelphia	4-12	33.5	33.2	13.0
Cleveland	4-12	38.0	29.0	20.1
Jacksonville	3-13	33.6	22.1	26.4
Kansas City	2-14	40.1	27.5	22.1