NFL Week 4 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projections

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 3 ratings.  You'll see that the teams would basically swap positions 4 and 8, but a few other teams move slightly as well.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	94.419	4-0	80.812	+0, +0.019
2	Atlanta	90.417	4-0	79.622	+1, +0.005
3	Arizona	90.251	4-0	82.601	-1, -0.492
4	New England	88.725	2-2	84.404	+0, -0.149
5	San Francisco	88.271	3-1	83.746	+2, +0.665
6	Baltimore	87.957	3-1	80.701	-1, -0.094
7	Denver	87.861	2-2	84.014	-1, +0.015
8	Chicago	86.544	3-1	79.991	+0, +0.533
9	Green Bay	86.041	3-1	80.811	+2, +2.170
10	San Diego	83.990	3-1	78.151	+0, +0.010
11	Minnesota	83.800	3-1	79.858	+1, +0.243
12	Seattle	83.583	1-3	83.751	-3, -1.973
13	Cincinnati	83.413	3-1	81.460	+0, -0.017
14	Miami	82.461	1-3	85.242	+0, -0.020
15	Pittsburgh	82.262	1-2	82.387	+0, +0.050
16	Philadelphia	81.638	3-1	83.475	+0, -0.179
17	NY Jets	81.340	2-2	82.905	+0, +0.121
18	NY Giants	80.661	2-2	77.784	+0, -0.207
19	Dallas	79.424	2-2	81.667	+0, -0.460
20	St Louis	79.287	2-2	81.660	+0, -0.292
21	Washington	78.710	2-2	78.857	+0, -0.081
22	Buffalo	78.625	2-2	79.384	+0, +0.006
23	Jacksonville	78.145	1-3	84.211	+0, +0.093
24	Detroit	77.803	1-3	81.535	+0, +0.088
25	Tampa Bay	75.881	1-3	78.247	+0, -0.184
26	Indianapolis	75.212	1-2	81.829	+1, +0.211
27	Cleveland	75.030	0-4	82.908	-1, -0.067
28	Oakland	74.959	1-3	84.143	+0, -0.001
29	Tennessee	74.783	1-3	86.234	+0, +0.001
30	Carolina	74.193	1-3	79.452	+0, -0.106
31	Kansas City	72.443	1-3	80.970	+0, +0.004
32	New Orleans	70.847	0-4	77.847	+0, +0.078

And in the projected records, Green Bay would go from being 9-7 and tied with Minnesota for the last spot to being 11-5 and tied with Chicago for the division, and since they currently have the tie-breaker would be projected to win it.  Seattle would fall from 9-7 and tied for the last wildcard spot to 7-9 and out of the playoff hunt.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	15-1	40.1	24.1	25.9
Atlanta	14-2	30.9	27.6	19.9
Arizona	13-3	26.6	17.7	24.9
Denver	11-5	30.7	24.3	21.9
Baltimore	11-5	26.2	22.9	19.8
Chicago	11-5	25.5	16.9	24.6
Green Bay	11-5	25.0	16.1	24.9
Philadelphia	11-5	24.7	16.3	24.5
San Francisco	11-5	24.7	19.2	21.8
San Diego	11-5	24.1	16.4	23.7
New England	10-6	24.8	24.2	17.4
Cincinnati	10-6	23.7	20.4	19.5
Minnesota	9-7	26.2	24.5	17.9
Pittsburgh	9-7	23.7	18.0	21.9
Dallas	8-8	24.8	18.7	22.4
Miami	8-8	24.4	17.3	23.3
NY Giants	8-8	24.4	19.0	21.7
Buffalo	7-9	24.9	17.3	24.0
Washington	7-9	24.6	17.6	23.3
Seattle	7-9	23.8	21.4	18.7
NY Jets	7-9	23.0	22.2	16.9
Oakland	6-10	26.1	19.8	22.5
Jacksonville	6-10	25.8	20.8	21.3
Tampa Bay	5-11	29.8	27.1	18.1
Indianapolis	5-11	26.5	20.4	22.4
St Louis	5-11	25.7	24.3	17.4
Carolina	5-11	25.2	20.5	21.1
Kansas City	4-12	28.8	18.9	26.3
Tennessee	4-12	26.6	23.8	18.9
Cleveland	4-12	25.5	17.7	24.5
Detroit	3-13	31.8	28.3	17.3
New Orleans	2-14	30.8	23.7	22.4

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.

NFL Week 4 Ratings and Rankings - Houston stays #1

The ratings after week 4 are now posted and listed below as well.

Houston stays #1 while Arizona and Atlanta swap spots behind them.  Seattle drops but still has 3 NFC West teams in the top-9.

New Orleans stays the worst team and interestingly Cleveland is also winless but is ranked 6 spots ahead of them.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	94.400	4-0	80.790	+0, +1.369
2	Arizona	90.743	4-0	83.182	+1, -0.042
3	Atlanta	90.412	4-0	79.641	-1, -0.762
4	New England	88.874	2-2	84.549	+2, +1.241
5	Baltimore	88.051	3-1	80.805	+0, -0.484
6	Denver	87.846	2-2	83.996	+2, +1.087
7	San Francisco	87.606	3-1	83.091	+0, +0.639
8	Chicago	86.011	3-1	79.584	+4, +2.773
9	Seattle	85.556	2-2	83.519	-5, -3.153
10	San Diego	83.980	3-1	78.148	+0, -0.178
11	Green Bay	83.871	2-2	80.986	-2, -1.957
12	Minnesota	83.557	3-1	79.594	+7, +3.472
13	Cincinnati	83.430	3-1	81.498	+5, +3.339
14	Miami	82.481	1-3	85.331	+3, +1.332
15	Pittsburgh	82.212	1-2	82.342	-1, -0.616
16	Philadelphia	81.817	3-1	83.690	-1, -0.946
17	NY Jets	81.219	2-2	82.730	-4, -1.952
18	NY Giants	80.868	2-2	78.016	-2, -0.518
19	Dallas	79.884	2-2	82.125	-8, -3.521
20	St Louis	79.579	2-2	82.018	+5, +2.222
21	Washington	78.791	2-2	78.961	+1, +0.165
22	Buffalo	78.619	2-2	79.407	-1, -0.754
23	Jacksonville	78.052	1-3	84.097	+0, -0.154
24	Detroit	77.715	1-3	81.381	-4, -1.712
25	Tampa Bay	76.065	1-3	78.460	-1, -1.761
26	Cleveland	75.097	0-4	82.979	+2, +0.615
27	Indianapolis	75.001	1-2	81.540	+3, +1.444
28	Oakland	74.960	1-3	84.130	-2, -0.036
29	Tennessee	74.782	1-3	86.242	-2, +0.186
30	Carolina	74.299	1-3	79.528	-1, +0.088
31	Kansas City	72.439	1-3	80.945	+0, -0.790
32	New Orleans	70.769	0-4	77.350	+0, -0.608

Estimated Dynamic NTRP summary reports available for the Pacific Northwest

Those of you that follow my blog and estimated DNTRP ratings may have wondered why I announced summary reports for the Denver Metro Area but not the Pacific Northwest given that it is the PNW where I started doing the ratings.  There was no slight intended and in fact I can generate summary reports for the PNW for those that are interested.

An example report is shown below and will include results from regular season matches played in Men's and Women's Adult, Senior, Super Senior, Super Duper Senior, and One Doubles leagues for the 2012 league season.  It won't include Mixed league results, as those are not used for computing year end ratings unless you are a mixed-exclusive player.  But contact me if you are interested in a report on Mixed.

John Doe
Current NTRP: 4.5
Estimated DNTRP: 4.47
Match Record: 12-2
Sets Won-Lost: 24-5
Games Won-Lost: 155-72
Best Match Result: 4.92 on 2012-08-25
Worst Match Result: 3.80 on 2012-06-26
Highest Estimated DNTRP: 4.55 on 2012-09-19
Lowest Estimated DNTRP: 4.28 on 2012-06-26

This chart shows both how the Estimated DNTRP changes with each match, and the specific rating computed for an individual match.  This gives a nice visual view of how each match is rated and the trends in your rating.

If you are interested in purchasing a report for a small fee, please contact me.  And if you aren't in the PNW section or the Denver area but are interested, let me know and I'll see what I can do.

Update! Estimated Dynamic NTRP for Denver Metro Area - Now with charts

I wrote earlier that I can now generate summary reports for women in the Denver Metro area.  I have an update on what is now included in the report.  The big news being a chart to show match by match performance.  Here is an example:

Jane Doe
Current NTRP: 4.5
Estimated DNTRP: 4.47
Match Record: 12-2
Sets Won-Lost: 24-5
Games Won-Lost: 155-72
Best Match Result: 4.92 on 2012-08-25
Worst Match Result: 3.80 on 2012-06-26
Highest Estimated DNTRP: 4.55 on 2012-09-19
Lowest Estimated DNTRP: 4.28 on 2012-06-26

This chart shows both how the Estimated DNTRP changes with each match, and the specific rating computed for an individual match.  This gives a nice visual view of how each match is rated and the trends in your rating.

If you are interested in purchasing a report, please contact me.

College Football Week 5 Projections - And then there we none projected undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 3 are now available.

And there are now no teams projected to be undefeated.  Alabama's drop in the ratings make it slightly more likely (42%) that they lose one game than lose none (39%).  Similarly, Ohio U. had a narrow win over a bad Massachusetts team and is projected with one loss.

The team now with the best chance of finishing with one loss is FSU at just over 50%.  They also have a decent (24%) chance of finishing undefeated.  Interestingly, Rutgers is projected to have the best shot at undefeated (39%) and still has a 44% chance of a one loss season.

The teams with 2 or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Florida St	11-1	50.2	23.5	22.1
Rutgers	11-1	44.4	39.0	14.5
Ohio U.	11-1	44.0	34.6	18.4
Georgia	11-1	43.8	14.1	35.9
Oregon	11-1	42.8	35.5	18.0
Florida	11-1	42.3	26.3	24.3
Alabama	11-1	42.2	38.7	16.3
Clemson	10-2	65.0	23.4	11.0
Boise St	10-2	49.7	21.2	25.2
Louisiana Tech	10-2	47.3	17.1	28.6
Western Kentucky	10-2	44.7	23.2	26.1
Toledo	10-2	43.0	16.9	32.3
San Jose St	10-2	41.9	39.1	16.1
Louisville	10-2	40.3	26.5	23.8
South Carolina	10-2	39.3	22.6	26.7
Texas A&M	10-2	36.6	10.7	34.1
Notre Dame	10-2	36.4	33.4	16.2
Texas	10-2	36.4	26.8	22.0
Northern Illinois	10-2	34.8	12.2	34.7
Nevada	10-2	34.5	14.8	32.0
Purdue	10-2	34.3	14.3	31.5
Northwestern	10-2	33.4	17.8	29.5
Kansas St	10-2	32.6	24.1	23.5
Ohio State	10-2	32.3	19.8	27.1
Texas Tech	10-2	30.8	17.7	28.0

Analyzing the 9/30/12 AP College Football Poll

Here is week 5 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 5 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

There isn't a lot of change at the top other than LSU dropping from #3 to #4 and Alabama picking up their first place vote to become unanimous.  Interestingly though, LSU received a 10th place vote last week but now the worst is a 9th place.  FSU who moves to #3 is now receiving 2nd place to 8th place votes.

Stanford falls all the way to #18, interestingly behind USC who they beat at #13.  This is a common occurrence with the polls, they over-rotate on the most recent result and forget earlier results.  My computer has Stanford #20 and USC #21.

College Football Week 5 Ratings and Rankings - New #1 in Florida

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

And for the 2nd week in a row, we have a new #1, this week in Florida.  They were helped by Alabama dropping slightly, but more by Florida improving due to previous opponents doing well; Texas A&M thumping Arkansas 58-10 and Tennessee playing within 7 points of Georgia on the road.  Oregon's somewhat lackluster performance against a bad Washington State team is what drops them to #3 and Georgia was hurt by letting the game with Tennessee be so close.

LSU falters a bit more after beating Towson by only 16 and Stanford falls 10 spots to #20.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Florida	91.282	4-0	71.966	+4, +2.091
2	Alabama	90.902	5-0	64.979	+0, -1.058
3	Oregon	87.610	5-0	57.765	-2, -4.773
4	Georgia	87.091	5-0	63.098	-1, -4.356
5	Texas A&M	86.888	3-1	67.028	+4, +3.107
6	Texas	85.433	4-0	68.748	+0, +0.212
7	Kansas St	85.329	4-0	61.593	-3, -4.684
8	South Carolina	84.572	5-0	66.488	+0, +0.182
9	Texas Tech	84.536	4-0	64.097	+8, +5.816
10	Florida St	84.535	5-0	54.589	-3, -0.180
11	Notre Dame	80.086	4-0	68.764	+3, -0.285
12	Arizona St	79.875	4-1	66.064	+0, -1.279
13	West Virginia	79.767	4-0	64.716	+7, +2.082
14	LSU	79.448	5-0	59.005	-1, -1.128
15	Baylor	79.117	3-1	69.211	+0, -0.687
16	Oklahoma	78.749	2-1	62.843	-5, -2.752
17	Tennessee	78.521	3-2	65.352	+7, +2.008
18	TCU	77.969	4-0	55.946	+0, -0.100
19	Clemson	77.884	4-1	67.599	+4, +1.320
20	Stanford	77.621	3-1	70.740	-10, -3.961
21	Southern Cal	77.540	3-1	65.583	-5, -1.659
22	Purdue	77.289	3-1	64.342	-1, +0.254
23	Rutgers	76.998	4-0	58.705	+6, +1.587
24	Mississippi St	76.448	4-0	54.167	+10, +2.486
25	Oregon St	75.879	3-0	74.433	+17, +3.285