Yep, it happened again, yet another undefeated team sent home at Southern California Sectionals

I'm growing tired of having to write these blog posts, but until SoCal USTA fixes their format and it stops happening, I'll keep pointing it out.

What is "it" you ask?

Southern California chooses to use the unflighted round-robin format for their Sectionals, at least for some divisions and levels, but does so with too many teams and not enough matches, leading to the possibility that more than four teams go undefeated and one (or more) of them get left out of making the semi-finals.

It has happened before in SoCal, just two months ago at 40 & Over Sectionals, and last year as well.  And this weekend it happened for the 18 & Over 3.5 women with 18 teams in the flight and each team playing just three matches.  That is a recipe for disaster and sure enough, there are five 3-0 teams.

I feel bad for SD WD LLW 3.5 Mtn View/ Jackie Saenz as they won their three matches, but it wasn't enough.  Now, they won each one 3-2 and so had the least impressive individual court record and that is the first tie-breaker in this case, and hopefully they knew going in winning 3-2 three times might not be enough, but that is still tough to swallow.

SoCal players, why do you stand for this?  Are you giving your section leaders your thoughts?  Or are you ok with it as is?

Note: I took a look and it appears that there was a greater than 6% chance there would be six 3-0 teams, and over a 23% chance of five 3-0 teams.

Unflighted Round-Robin Format - USTA Southern gets it!

I've written several times over the years how the Southern California section has deployed the unflighted round-robin format in less than ideal ways where undefeated teams can be left out of advancing to the semis/final, and it has happened, most recently just a month ago.

Well, I happened to be looking at how the Southern section uses the format and am pleased to acknowledge that Southern does it right!

The challenge SoCal has is they have too many teams, and too few matches.  Some of SoCal's flights have 18 teams, and then each one only plays three matches, which is a recipe for disaster.  SoCal isn't alone as Florida has deployed the format where two teams got left out, and even at Nationals where there are fewer teams (no more than 17), National makes sure the teams play four matches each which mitigates the risk of having too many undefeated teams, although a fifth has happened a couple times.

Southern on the other hand has no more than 9 teams, and even with half the teams SoCal may have they get each team four matches!  That accomplishes several things:

• Gets each team more matches and more playing time for players
• More fairly identifies the top teams as more teams play more opponents
• Virtually eliminates the chance of an undefeated team being sent home

When there are 8 or 9 teams in the flight, Southern takes the top-4 teams into a draw starting with semifinals and in this format, there is virtually no way of having a fifth 4-0 team.  But if there are fewer than 8 teams the take just the top-2 teams to a final.

In this latter case, there may be the potential for a third 4-0 teams in extreme cases, but instead of sticking their head in the sand and hoping it doesn't happen, Southern has a clause in the rules to handle it!

The clause reads:

In the rare instance that there are more undefeated teams than allowed in playoffs, an additional playoff match may be added to accommodate the extra undefeated team. (For example, there are three undefeated teams in a partial round robin group of seven teams after four team matches against randomly selected opponents. A playoff match between the #2 and #3 team, based on standings, may be added to determine which team is placed in the final playoff against the #1 team.)

I think this is perfectly reasonable, and is something I've written about and suggested to National staff be implemented, so am pleased to see Southern doing it.  Yes, it creates an extra match that has to be fit in somewhere, but I think that is eminently more fair than telling a 4-0 team, that may have gone 4-0 with the toughest schedule of the 4-0 teams and lost out on a courts, sets, or games tie-breaker as a result, that they don't advance.

To my knowledge, even National has not adopted a clause like this to address the possibility of sending an undefeated team home, so well done Southern for leading the way.

What do you think?  Should National and all sections adopt language like this in how they implement the format?

And it happened again - An undefeated team is sent home at SoCal Sectionals

I wrote yesterday about the possibility of an undefeated team missing out on making the semi-finals and being sent home at 40 & Over SoCal Sectionals, and indeed it happened.

The 3.5 Women's flight had 18 teams and they played unflighted round-robin with each team playing just three matches.  This is ripe for problems and it has happened before and yet SoCal continues to use the format.

This time, there were six teams that were 2-0 after day one and none of them played each other in their 3rd match so it was possible that there would be six 3-0 teams and two sent home, but only five won leaving them all 3-0.  With just four spots for the semis, the 5th place 3-0 team is sent home.

As of right now, the four semi-finalists aren't populated, but standings show:

1. OC - RCI - 3-0 / 10-2 / 20-8
2. LA - WC - 3-0 / 9-3 / 18-6
3. SDNC - Fairbanks Ranch - 3-0 / 9-3 / 18-8
4. SD SDTRC - 3-0 / 8-4 / 19-9
5. LLW - Bake - 3-0 / 8-4 / 17-10

Tough luck for LLW.  They didn't lose a match, won the same number of courts as SD SDTRC, but lost one more set so they miss out.

This is known beforehand I assume, so teams should know it might happen and what they need to do to avoid it, but it is still a terrible format and way to decide the teams to advance to the semis.

What do you think?

Has USTA Florida botched the random round-robin format again?

In 2022 at Florida 18 & Over Mixed Sectionals, a disaster happened where two undefeated teams were sent home in the 9.0 flight.  Might it happen again?

This happened because the unflighted round-robin format was used with 10 teams with two sets of five teams on each side playing four teams on the other side.  This means in theory if all the teams on one side win, there could be five 5-0 teams, and they only took two teams to a final.  It is all explained here.

What is worse is they had five strong teams on one side and five weaker teams on the other, and sure enough four teams went 4-0 and two were sent home.

You would think an event like this happening would be a great learning opportunity and steps would be taken to prevent it from happening again.  Well, sort of.

This year, again at 18 & Over Mixed Sectionals, there are again 10 teams at both the 6.0 and 9.0 levels, and unflighted round-robin is being used with each team playing four matches.  The good news is it appears they will take the top-4 to semis instead of just the top-2.  Phew, we are safe then right?

Not so fast ...

Both levels appear to have had the short-sighted "two sides of five teams each" approach to scheduling, so there still remains a chance of five undefeated teams!

Here is what it looks like for 6.0 flight if you visually look at the schedule.

Yep, there are clearly two groups of five teams, the top row plays the bottom row, and it is possible either row could go 5-0.

And for the 9.0 flight.

We see the same thing here.

Now, will it happen?  The chances are probably low, but the mere fact the format is used in a way that allows for it to happen when it could easily be avoided is a gaffe.  All one has to do is actually make a random schedule instead of constructing a schedule that explicitly allows for the worst case scenario.

I don't know if anyone from the USTA Florida reads my blog, but if so, I volunteer my services for free to review your unflighted round-robin schedules in the future so this can be avoided.  I would prefer to nip this sort of thing in the bud before it is rolled out and can't be changed.  It isn't fair to the players involved.

Let's hope the worst case doesn't happen for the players' sake.  If the disaster is avoided, that doesn't mean the format is ok, it just means they got lucky.

Even the National format with 17 teams and a schedule that actually appears random has a chance of sending an undefeated team home and it has happened (also here).

Good luck to all the teams involved.  Make sure you smash your opponent lest you go 4-0 and lose out on the standings tie-breaker.

How did 2023 Florida 18 & Over Sectionals play out?

I wrote Friday about a potential issue with the use of the unflighted round-robin format at 18 & Over Florida Sectionals, but then heard they would be adding a final after all, but they didn't add the final to TennisLink until late Sunday so to outside observers there was some drama.

It turns out the drama was not because round-robin play finished with two undefeated teams (which was possible and the brewing issue), but because three teams finished 3-1.  Had they not introduced a final between the top two teams, they would have been picking a winner to go to Nationals where three teams were tied and two of them hadn't even played each other.

Here are the standings at the end of round-robin play:

• Miami - 3-1 / 14-6
• Hills - 3-1 / 12-8
• Broward - 3-1 / 11-9

Broward had beaten Miami 3-2, but then Hills beat Broward 3-2, but Hills lost to Orange 3-2 (who finished 5th of 7 teams at 2-2 / 9-11).  Miami and Hills did not play.

Had they just taken the top team in the standings, Miami would have advanced never having to play Hills.  But even with the final, you have to pick two of these teams and Broward got left out despite beating the top team in the standings.  But taking the top two teams to a final still solves the major problem.

In the final, Hills came out on top winning 3-2, so a very close competition, Hill ultimately beating both of the other two top teams to punch their ticket to Nationals.

I'm glad it all worked out in the end, congratulations to Hills!

Update: Unflighted Round-Robin may work out ok at Florida Sectionals

I just wrote about what appeared to be a potential unflighted round-robin issue at Florida Sectionals, but a reader on Facebook said a team dropped out late causing the change from two flights to unflighted seven teams and there is a final planned.  I guess it just doesn't show up on TennisLink yet so the fears may be unfounded.

I did think it would be interesting to visually see the schedule, so here it is.

If indeed there is a final, it could be the nice resolution to two undefeated teams, but it is perhaps more likely that it will be a rematch of a round-robin match.  That is the possibility with this format and one can argue it is good or bad.

On the good side, it means a team with a tough schedule that loses early can still have a chance to advance.  This keeps some drama and excitement, and perhaps keeps the teams more engaged through the end of the event.

On the bad side, it means a team could have to beat the same opponent twice to win the event.  If there are two top teams and they play in round-robin, pulling out the stops to win that match may just mean you get to play them again in the semis or final.  That can lead to the round-robin match perhaps being meaningless, especially if it is the last one and the teams know already they will both advance.

In general, I think unflighted round-robin is better than the most alternatives, as long as it is implemented correctly.  Hopefully there is a final for the 4.5 men this weekend.

USTA Florida may be botching the unflighted round-robin format once again! (false alarm, phew)

The unflighted round-robin format was introduced by USTA National a number of years ago for use at Nationals so that all teams could play four matches and the format would be consistent regardless of the number of sections that sent teams.  Some sections have adopted the format for section or even district championships, some smartly, and some not so smartly.

A few of the gaffes include NorCal having too many teams (22) and too few matches (3) leading to undefeated teams not advancing, SoCal doing something similar, and Florida using a mindless implementation of it (missing the "random" part) also leading to two undefeated teams being sent home.

It appears Florida may be at it again, this time having the 18 & Over Sectionals with what appears to be some flawed unflighted round-robin set ups.

Specifically, the 4.5 men this weekend appears to have seven teams all playing four matches, so every team doesn't play every other team, and they are only taking the top team as the Sectionals winner!  If every team doesn't play all the others, obviously two teams could go undefeated, and if you only take one team as the winner ... duh?

Hopefully what I'm seeing on TennisLink is wrong, but for every other flight going on this weekend, it shows flights/round-robins and then a finals to be played, but for the 4.5 men there is just the round-robin with no final.

If they do indeed take just the top team in the standings as the winner, they may luck out as the top teams do play each other.  Still, it is possible, and using such a format is just plain dumb.

I also see the 2.5 women with 10 teams and no final, but I don't think that event is this weekend so perhaps TennisLink just isn't fully populated.  Similarly the 4.0 men and women don't show finals, hopefully those get fixed.

Updated: I've been told there is indeed a final between the top-2 teams that just hasn't been added to TennisLink yet.  Apparently there was a late withdrawal and change to seven teams and unflighted.  Phew!  See this update.

Well, it happened, TWO undefeated teams are left out at Florida Mixed Sectionals

I wrote two days ago that there was a chance an undefeated team in the Florida Mixed Sectionals 9.0 flight would be left out and not have a chance to advance.  I wrote an update yesterday saying things were on track for it to happen.  Well, unfortunately it ended up happening.

With four teams all 2-0 after yesterday's matches and none of them playing each other today, it was primed to happen.  After one match today, the four teams were all 3-0 with court records ranging from 8-1 to 6-3.

Two teams won quickly and they were 4-0 with one 11-1 on courts and the other 10-2, but I think there was a rain delay and matches moved indoor to complete so we had to wait to see if we had more undefeated teams.  The team that was 3-0/6-3 was already eliminated, even winning their last match 3-0 would only get them to 4-0/9-3 (which they did) and there were already two teams ahead of them.  The other one ended up winning and ending up 4-0/10-2.

The final standings were:

Miami-Dade - 4-0 / 11-1 / 22-5
Sarasota - 4-0 / 10-2 / 21-6
Hills - 4-0 / 10-2 / 22-7
Broward - 4-0 / 9-3 / 18-8

Miami-Dade was in as the first place team, but it took the sets lost tie-breaker to select Sarasota as the second place team, leaving Hills and Broward out.

While the flawed tie-breakers didn't come into play here, the sets lost tie-breaker was still used to break a tie between two teams that didn't play each other or the exact same schedule which feels a little unfair.  But that is the way it is and everyone knew the situation up front.

That is brutal for both Hills and Broward, but especially Hills as they only lost two courts across four matches and that wasn't enough to advance to the final.  I can't imagine what it would be like to have that performance and not have a chance to continue playing.

I was half wondering if they would ad lib and take all four teams and play two semi-finals instead of just taking the top-2 to the final, but TennisLink shows Miami-Dade and Sarasota in the final, so it appears that won't happen.

As much as I like writing about these topics and this was clearly fodder to do so, I really hoped this wouldn't happen and and would never wish this on any team.  And it was avoidable.  With 10 teams, they could have had two flights of five and have everyone play the same four matches and have two flight winners advance.  Or they could have used unflighted round-robin but with an actual random assignment of matches and a verification it was sound beforehand.

If nothing else, perhaps this is educational for Florida and other sections and even National to avoid scenarios like this in the future.

Day one update on Florida Mixed Sectionals - Still a great chance of an undefeated team being sent home

I wrote yesterday about the potential for an unflighted round-robin fiasco at Florida Mixed Sectionals, and then added a diagram showing the issue this morning.  After day one, the worst case scenario has already been averted, but we aren't out of the woods yet.

In today's matches in the 9.0 flight, each of Miami, Hills, Sarasota, and Broward all won, but Alachua lost 2-1 to Orange when there was an upset on one court.  So there are four 2-0 teams, and none of them play each other tomorrow.  But we won't have five 4-0 teams.

Here again is the visual description of the schedule.

So you can see the four 2-0 teams are all in the bottom row (the row I said was the "good" pod) and none of them play each other.

My simulation now says there is a 16% chance all four teams go 2-0 tomorrow and finish 4-0, and there is a 39% chance three teams do so, together that means there is a 55% chance three or more teams finish 4-0 and one of them doesn't advance and is sent home.

Now, there is a 45% chance it doesn't happen as well, but that is lower than it was at the start of the event.

In a way, I hope it doesn't happen as it really wouldn't be fair to the teams that are sent home.  But then I'm hoping teams lose which seems wrong.

On the other hand, if it does happen it will help highlight the issues with the format and hopefully educate folks on when not to use it, or how to use it correctly.

A diagram illustrating the unflighted round-robin problem at Florida 18 & Over Mixed Sectionals

I wrote yesterday about the possibility of there being five undefeated teams for two advancing spots at this weekend's Florida 18 & Over Mixed Sectionals in the 9.0 flight.

I think it was pretty clear the issue, that having two pods play matches against other pods but not within the pod is a recipe for disaster.  But I've created a diagram to explicitly show it.

You can see there are clearly two groups of five teams that play against the other five, but not each other.

While this is a simple format to create, it clearly won't select the top two teams very well.  Since none of the top group or bottom group play each other, it is possible for all the teams in one group or the other to end up 4-0, and thus my simulation saying that is possible.

Now, if there are strong teams in both pods, the chances of it occurring may not be that large, but if you have the strong teams all in one pod, it can be very likely to happen.

In this case, the top row has, by my ratings, four of the bottom five rated teams while the bottom row has four of the top five rated teams.  Thus the fairly high likelihood that three or more teams finish 4-0 and one or more of them get left out.

I don't know if someone at Florida came up with this way of doing "random" opponents, or if this was what National advised, but it clearly isn't the best way to do things.