Should a DQ at PNW 40 & Over Sectionals have changed who is going to Nationals?

The primary USTA League Adult Sectionals are complete in the PNW and someone brought to my attention a player that was disqualified at the 40 & Over Sectionals this past weekend.

The player in question was a 3.5S and played on the men's 3.5 team that made it to and won the final, and the player played in all four of the team's matches going 4-0 without dropping a set and giving up a total of 13 games across the four matches, the equivalent of about 6-2,6-1 each match.

Going in to Sectionals, the player was 12-0 including going 6-0 playing up at 4.0 and not dropping a set in any of those matches.  Interestingly he had dropped four sets earlier in the year playing 3.5 but managed to win all four match tie-breaks.

Now, most people know you don't get DQ'd based on your win/loss record, it matters who you play (and play with in doubles) and it is entirely possible to go undefeated and not get strikes if you happen to play weak opponents or have really close scores.  But on the surface, this player was well above level and the DQ very well may have been justified and perhaps was even overdue.  But that isn't what I'm writing about.

Instead, the topic is how PNW allows out of level players to play through the completion of Sectionals and only be DQ'd and promoted after the event, letting all results stand.  Since the scenario happened this weekend, I wanted to walk through the implications of it and how it affected the other teams and who qualified for the final and advanced to Nationals.

I've written about this before, one time when the rule in PNW changed for 2022, and then it came up again earlier this year when National went the other way and will administer DQ's during Nationals starting in 2027.

So, back to what happened at Sectionals.  The player very well could have had one, maybe even two strikes going in to the event, and almost certainly had at least two of his matches at Sectionals recorded as strikes, but perhaps all four is possible.  But let's go through some scenarios.

Conservatively, he got this third in the final at Sectionals and if strikes were checked during Sectionals, he would have been DQ'd and his match reversed, and because this was a 2-2 win for his team, this would have become a loss and instead of going to Nationals, the opponent would be going instead.  That is a pretty big shift.

But let's consider if he would have gotten his third during the round-robin play.  If it were in the last match, then all three of his wins would have been reversed, and the 2-2 tie would be a 3-1 loss, and the two 3-1 wins would have become 2-2 losses, and instead of going 3-0 the team would have gone 0-3 and a different team would have advanced to the final and had a chance to go to Nationals.

If the third strike would have been from the second round-robin match, then the first two would have been reversed, but the team could have played a different player in the third, so they could have possibly gone 1-2, but still another team would have gone to the final.

Had the third strike been from the first match, then there is a chance they go 2-1 and still make the final, but that would have been really hard considering they would have replaced him with a significantly lower rated player and would have had a 6-0,6-0 loss contributing to the standings tie-breakers.

So, was this fair to the other teams?  In virtually no scenario does his team advance to Nationals if strikes were administered during the event.  And now that he is DQ'd, his the team going to Nationals is effectively not the same team as they are weaker without him, and arguably the section is not sending the strongest team possible.

Now, one of the arguments for only administering the strikes/DQ after the event is that players have paid money to travel and take time off and you don't want to ruin the trip for them after just one match.  Well, what about all the other team's players who also traveled and took time off and were forced to play an out of level player, or have their team take a team loss because of playing an out of level player, and lose their opportunity to go to Nationals because of it?  Should the priority be to be fair to those 40-50 players instead of worrying about the one out of level player getting to keep playing?

It seems clear that National has had a change of heart and feels it is better and more fair to all the opponents to administer strikes during the event, and Nationals is almost certainly a bigger investment from a travel and time standpoint.  So if National feels that way, shouldn't Sections follow suit?

What does your section do regarding this rule in playoffs, and what is your view on it?  Should strikes be administered during championships with results reversed?  Or should it only happen after the event letting matches played stand?

PNW 40 & Over Sectionals are done - Who is going to Nationals?

It is late August, which means PNW Sectionals for the 18 & Over and 40 & Over divisions have been played, so it is time to take a look at who is going to Nationals.

The 18 & Over was played a few weeks ago, here is who made the final and advanced for the 40 & Over.

• 2.5 Women - NWW-BTA-Hsu and NWW-AYTC-Tibbetts each won their flights 3-0, then BTA-Hsu won the final 3-0.  Note this is not a Nationals event.
• 2.5 Men - NWW-ETC-Box won the flight going 4-0.  Note this is not a Nationals event.
• 3.0 Women - N OR-MAC-Nguyen and SWW-TLTC-Paul each won their flights 3-0 before MAC-Nguyen won the final 4-0.
• 3.0 Men - NWW-WSC-Shen and NWW-STC-Wood won their flights each 3-0, then WSC-Shen won the final 3-1.
• 3.5 Women - N OR-PTC-Hill and SWW-LRC-Hudson won their flights 3-0 and 2-1 respectively, then PTC-Hill won the final 3-1.
• 3.5 Men - N OR-CRRC-Johnson and SWW-JTC-Severns won their flights 3-0, then CRRC-Johnson won the final 2-2 coming down to a 2 game differential to break the tie.
• 4.0 Women - N OR-MPRC-Huynh and SWW-TLTC-Simonson won their flights 3-0, then TLTC-Simonson won the final 3-1.
• 4.0 Men - N OR-PTC-Greenberg and SWW-JTC-White won their flights 2-1 and 3-0, then JTC-White won the final 2-2 by eight games in the tie-breaker.
• 4.5 Women - NWW-EDG-Allen and NWW-NTC-Wilson won their flights 3-0, with NTC-Wilson winning the final 3-1.
• 4.5 Men - N OR-PTC-Borosky and N OR-CAC-McGarity won their flights 3-0, then CAC-McGarity won the final 3-1.

Just a couple of finals came down to 2-2 ties, but quite a few more in round-robin did.

As far as what area won the most, the tallies are:

• NOR (Portland) - 5
• NWW (Seattle) - 4
• SWW (Tacoma/Olympia) - 1

More balanced than 18 & Over was.

Congratulations to all the Sectional Champs!

PNW 18 & Over Sectionals are complete - Who is going to Nationals?

It is late August, which means PNW Sectionals for the 18 & Over and 40 & Over divisions have been played, so it is time to take a look at who is going to Nationals.

The 18 & Over was played a few weeks ago, here is who made the final and advanced.

• 2.5 Women - NWW-ETC-Hsu and NOR-IRV-Sebastian each went 3-0 in their flight and then NWW won the final 2-1.
• 2.5 Men - Two NWW teams, HBSQ-Reda and MI-Chang won their flights 3-0 and HBSQ-Reda won the final 3-0.  Note that 2.5 men is not a Nationals event so they are not headed there.
• 3.0 Women - NWW-RBW-Chau and NWW-AYTC-Tong each went 3-0, and in the final AYTC-Tong won 4-1.
• 3.0 Men - EW-PC-Bjella and NOR-THPRD-Kadam/Udyavara each won 3-0 with NOR winning the final 4-1.
• 3.5 Women - NWW-WSC-Hashimoto and NWW-ETC-Zhu won their flights 3-0, then ETC-Zhu won the final 3-2.
• 3.5 Men - NWW-WSC-Yue and NOR-SHC-Lumetta won their flights each 3-0, then WSC-Yue won the final 4-1.
• 4.0 Women - SWW-TLTC-Mettler and EW-IND-Rose each won their flights 3-0, with TLTC-Mettler winning the final 4-1.
• 4.0 Men - NWW-TUK-Newman and NWW-WSC-Low went 2-1 and 3-0 respectively, with TUK-Newman winning the final 4-1.
• 4.5 Women - NOR-VTC-Mikalatos and NOR-THPRD-Ly went 3-0 each, then VTC-Mikalatos won the final 3-2.
• 4.5 Men - EW-PFC-Griner and NWW-TCSP-Liu each went 3-0, with TCSP-Liu winning the final 5-0.
• 5.0 Women - NOR-PTC-Kowalewski won the single flight going 3-1 and beating out NWW-AYTC-Kohrs on the courts tie-breaker.
• 5.0 Men - NWW-MI-Condiotty won the single flight going 4-0.

It is interesting that only in two cases did a flight winner not go undefeated, and one of those the flight win was mostly wrapped up before the loss, and in the other the flight winner just needed one court in their last match.  Also, just three of the ten finals were won by one court.  So I'm sure there was some drama in individual matches, but in the standings and finals, not so much.

As far as what area won the most, the tallies are:

• NWW (Seattle) - 8
• NOR (Portland) - 3
• SWW (Tacoma/Olympia) - 1

That is pretty typical for 18 & Over that Seattle wins the most.

Congratulations to all the Sectional Champs!

Yep, it happened again, yet another undefeated team sent home at Southern California Sectionals

I'm growing tired of having to write these blog posts, but until SoCal USTA fixes their format and it stops happening, I'll keep pointing it out.

What is "it" you ask?

Southern California chooses to use the unflighted round-robin format for their Sectionals, at least for some divisions and levels, but does so with too many teams and not enough matches, leading to the possibility that more than four teams go undefeated and one (or more) of them get left out of making the semi-finals.

It has happened before in SoCal, just two months ago at 40 & Over Sectionals, and last year as well.  And this weekend it happened for the 18 & Over 3.5 women with 18 teams in the flight and each team playing just three matches.  That is a recipe for disaster and sure enough, there are five 3-0 teams.

I feel bad for SD WD LLW 3.5 Mtn View/ Jackie Saenz as they won their three matches, but it wasn't enough.  Now, they won each one 3-2 and so had the least impressive individual court record and that is the first tie-breaker in this case, and hopefully they knew going in winning 3-2 three times might not be enough, but that is still tough to swallow.

SoCal players, why do you stand for this?  Are you giving your section leaders your thoughts?  Or are you ok with it as is?

Note: I took a look and it appears that there was a greater than 6% chance there would be six 3-0 teams, and over a 23% chance of five 3-0 teams.

Are some districts/states not sending teams to USTA League Southern Sectionals?

It is that time of year when Sectionals are being played across the country.  Sectionals is where teams from the various districts in a section all come together to play to see who will win and represent the section at Nationals.

Not all districts send teams to Sectionals at every gender and level as some areas/district just don't have critical mass for enough teams at every gender and level.  But the main levels are generally represented by each district.

In the Southern section there are 11 districts and these align with 11 states, those being Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee.  Thus a full flight would be 11 teams representing each state.

In taking a look at some flights, it appears not all states are represented, and not just at the genders/levels on the fringes.

At the 18 & Over Southern Sectionals, ignoring the 2.5 and 5.0 levels where it is common for some states to be absent:

• 3.0 women - Only 6 teams listed, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina are missing
• 3.0 men - Only 8 teams listed, North Carolina is missing
• 3.5 women - Only 8 teams listed, Georgia is missing
• 3.5 men - Only 6 teams listed, Alabama, Kentucky, and South Carolina are missing
• 4.0 women - All states listed
• 4.0 men - Only 6 teams listed, Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee are missing
• 4.5 women - Only 8 teams listed, Alabama missing
• 4.5 men - Only 8 teams listed, Mississippi missing

That is only one gender/level where all 9 states are there!  And three where three teams are missing!  So this isn't just a state missing here or there.  And some states are missing that are considered hot beds of tennis.

Note that the 3.0 and 4.0 levels are taking place this weekend so those teams are certainly set, while the 3.5 and 4.5 levels are next weekend, and I believe the deadline for entry has past so I doubt any teams are going to be added, but perhaps TennisLink is just not up to date and more teams will be there for 3.5 and 4.5.

The 40 & Over Southern Sectionals is also going on this weekend and next weekend:

• 3.0 women - 10 teams are listed!  They are sending two from Mississippi, not sure why
• 3.0 men - Only 6 teams listed, Kentucky, Georgia, and North Carolina missing
• 3.5 women - 10 teams are listed!  They are sending two from Alabama
• 3.5 men - Only 8 teams are listed, Alabama missing
• 4.0 women - 10 teams are listed!  Georgia gets two at this level
• 4.0 men - All states are listed
• 4.5 women - Only 6 teams are listed, Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Carolina missing
• 4.5 men - Only 8 teams are listed, Kentucky is missing

Interestingly, this is not quite as bad as 18 & Over with four flights having full representation, and for some reason the Section has elected to have wildcards and 10 teams for the 3.0, 3.5, and 4.0 women.

One would actually think there are more teams and players at 18 & Over compared to 40 & Over, so there would be less chance of states skipping out.

Note that at 40 & Over the 3.0 and 4.0 levels are next weekend while the 3.5 and 4.5 are this weekend.  So they are staggered from 18 & Over so if players were on teams going to both, they would be able to.

So why are some states not sending teams?  And why is 18 & Over less represented than 40 & Over?

I can think of a few reasons, so I'll throw them out here, but I'd love to hear from folks in Southern if they know what is going on.

Going to Sectionals is a sizable commitment from a time and money perspective and perhaps some aren't willing to take it on.  This can especially be the case in Southern where depending on where the event is held, there can be a bunch of travel.

This year 18 & Over is being held in Mobile, AL on the back to back weekends while 40 & Over is in Rome, GA.  There is no perfect location for all states, but these are reasonably central locations and have been used on a regular basis so aren't new.  And the states skipping some events are not far from these locations at all, so it can't be just this reason.

Players could be on teams qualified for both 18 & Over and 40 & Over and are just picking one to attend.  I haven't done analysis of this, but I don't think the schedule is significantly different from prior years so if this were the reason, we would expect to have seen it in the past.

Teams could feel they have no shot at winning, perhaps due to knowledge or history of super teams from some states, and so don't want to go knowing they are likely to lose.  While this is possible, history tells us that super teams have come from nearly all of the states in Southern including some of those skipping events this year.

Are there other reasons?  Those from Southern, what is the inside scoop on what is going on?

But even if any of the above reasons are true and the States winner from some states opts out, why wouldn't the state send the runner up from States so they are represented?  I imagine in some cases if the winner opts out late and the members of the runner up have already made other plans, the runner up may also opt out.  But it still seems odd for so many teams to be missing.

FWIW, last year there were some events with just 8 teams, but only one with less than that and that was the 18 & Over 4.5 women, compared to a full five with just six teams this year.  So this year definitely has more teams missing.

What do you think?  Why is this happening this year?

And it happened again - An undefeated team is sent home at SoCal Sectionals

I wrote yesterday about the possibility of an undefeated team missing out on making the semi-finals and being sent home at 40 & Over SoCal Sectionals, and indeed it happened.

The 3.5 Women's flight had 18 teams and they played unflighted round-robin with each team playing just three matches.  This is ripe for problems and it has happened before and yet SoCal continues to use the format.

This time, there were six teams that were 2-0 after day one and none of them played each other in their 3rd match so it was possible that there would be six 3-0 teams and two sent home, but only five won leaving them all 3-0.  With just four spots for the semis, the 5th place 3-0 team is sent home.

As of right now, the four semi-finalists aren't populated, but standings show:

1. OC - RCI - 3-0 / 10-2 / 20-8
2. LA - WC - 3-0 / 9-3 / 18-6
3. SDNC - Fairbanks Ranch - 3-0 / 9-3 / 18-8
4. SD SDTRC - 3-0 / 8-4 / 19-9
5. LLW - Bake - 3-0 / 8-4 / 17-10

Tough luck for LLW.  They didn't lose a match, won the same number of courts as SD SDTRC, but lost one more set so they miss out.

This is known beforehand I assume, so teams should know it might happen and what they need to do to avoid it, but it is still a terrible format and way to decide the teams to advance to the semis.

What do you think?

Is USTA Southern California at it again?

It is that time of year when some sections start to have playoffs and Sectionals, and that means it is time to see what flawed formats get used.

USTA SoCal has a history of using the unflighted round-robin format in questionable ways, specifically having too many teams and not enough team matches leaving the door open to a team going undefeated in round-robin and missing out on making the semis.

Last year the 2024 40 & Over 3.5 Women had a 3-0 team go home, and worse, they got the raw end of the deal on the broken standings tie-breakers.  And it has nearly happened several times before.

Well, they appear to be consistent if nothing else, as they are doing the same format with the same issues this weekend, but at least only for one flight.  The 40 & Over 3.5 Women again have 18 teams and each playing just three matches.

Will a team go undefeated and be left out of the semis?  There is no guarantee, but there is a really good chance of it.

Pacific Northwest USTA League Sectionals / Playoff Update

This is a busy time of year for USTA League tennis as the current year has a flurry of playoffs, Districts, States, and Sectionals, and in those areas with Early Start Leagues, those are about to get started.  This is happening across all 17 sections, especially with Sectionals for 18 & Over and 40 & Over being completed or played very soon, and the PNW is no exception.

Over the past few weeks there has been just in my area/section:

• 18 & Over Sectionals in Portland two weeks ago
• 40 & Over Mixed local playoffs in Seattle a week ago
• 55 & Over Mixed local playoffs in Seattle a week ago
• One Doubles local playoffs in Seattle a week ago
• 40 & Over Sectionals in Portland this weekend

I was fortunate to be on teams involved in three of those, and had friends/family playing in all of them, a busy few weekends.

The weather did play a part in some of the events.  18 & Over Sectionals had great weather with sun and 80s or even 90s, but last weekend there was some rain Sunday causing some disruption to matches and scrambling to find indoor courts, but the USTA and volunteer staff did a great job of getting everything in.

I was at 40 & Over Sectionals this past weekend and the forecast looked ominous as we neared the event with a good chance of rain Friday.  Thankfully the USTA planned ahead and had enough indoor courts available that they were able to make the call to play pro-sets and juggle the schedule a bit to get all of the Friday matches in.  There was rain early in the morning, and then a few showers so while some play could have occurred outside, it would have been interrupted and hectic while the adjusted indoor schedule went smoothly.  The rest of the weekend was fine with just a short delay Saturday morning as the courts had to try from a brief overnight shower.

What areas won Sectionals this year?

For the 18 & Over we had:

• 2.5 women - Eastern Washington/Deery beat Northern Oregon/Shin 2-1 in the final
• 2.5 men - Northwest Washington/Li won the round-robin going 4-0
• 3.0 women - NWW/Kim beat NOR/Agrawal in the final 3-2
• 3.0 men - NWW/Box beat NWW/Wang 5-0 in the final
• 3.5 women - NWW/Hawkins beat NWW/Lee 4-1 in the final
• 3.5 men - NWW/Powers beat NWW/Mar 4-1 in the final
• 4.0 women - Southwest Washington/Mettler beat Alaska/Welch 3-2 in the final
• 4.0 men - NWW/Maki beat NWW/Low 3-2 in the final
• 4.5 women - NOR/Affentranger beat NOR/Graham 3-2 in the final
• 4.5 men - NWW/Huang beat NWW/Liu 3-2 in the final
• 5.0 women - NOR/Donato won the round-robin going 3-0
• 5.0 men - NWW/Condiotty beat NWW/Purohit 3-0 in the final

So NWW took 8 of the 12.

In the 40 & Over this was the result:

• 2.5 women - SWW/Oie beat EW/Brown 2-1 in the final
• 2.5 men - NWW/Li won the round-robin 3-0
• 3.0 women - NWW/Perret beat NOR/Lee 2-2 on the games tie-breaker (4) in the final
• 3.0 men - NWW/Wang beat NWW/Khullar 3-1 in the final
• 3.5 women - NOR/Cowling beat NWW/Holland 3-1 in the final
• 3.5 men - NOR/Larsen beat NWW/Agrawal 2-2 on the sets tie-breaker (1) in the final
• 4.0 women - Southern Oregon/Kelly beat NOR/Huynh 3-1 in the final
• 4.0 men - NWW/Sharma beat NWW/Robey 3-1 in the final
• 4.5 women - NWW/Corsano beat NWW/Lao 2-2 on the sets tie-breaker (1) in the final
• 4.5 men - NOR/Borosky beat NOR/McGarity 2-2 on the games tie-breaker (3) in the final

Here NWW took 5 of the 10.

And yes, our section still uses 1 singles and 3 doubles for 40 & Over so we have to deal with the 2-2 ties.  And some of the 3-1 wins were exceedingly close with match tie-breaks being two of the wins where either going the other way would have reversed the result with the 2-2 tie going to the other team on the games tie-breaker.  Very close!

And there are more Sectionals coming up with Mixed 40 & Over and Mixed 55 & Over in just over three weeks.

Congratulations to all that played, competed, and won!

Seattle and Portland split the 2023 Pacific Northwest 40 & Over Sectional champions.

The Pacific Northwest section held their 18 & Over Sectionals two weeks ago and Seattle area teams romped and are sending the Section's representative at every gender and level.  The 40 & Over Sectionals was this weekend and the same thing did not occur.

The women's 2.5 had Portland's MAC face Southwest Washington's JTC with MAC taking the title.

The men's 2.5 was a round-robin with two Seattle and two Portland teams, the Seattle teams finished first and second with ETC beating our CAC/Silver Lake.

The women's 3.0 had Seattle's Mercer Island facing Portland's WHRC in the final and Mercer Island taking the 3-1 win and heading to Nationals.

For the 3.0 men, two Seattle teams faced off with Central Park facing Mercer Island and Mercer Island taking the 3-1 win for a clean sweep of 3.0 for Mercer Island teams.

At 3.5, the women's final had Seattle's TCSP playing Portland's GLVR with TCSP taking the 3-1 win.

The 3.5 men had two Portland teams facing off with  IRV and MAC playing in the final, and MAC winning 3-1.

The women's 4.0 had another Mercer Island team from Seattle face Portland's LOTC with LOTC coming out on top 3-1.

The men's 4.0 saw GTC from Southwest Washington face BETC from Seattle and BETC took the 2-2 win by extending one of their lost courts to a super tie-break.

The 4.5 women had two Portland teams make the final with GLVR taking the 3-1 win over SHC.

The 4.5 men also had two Portland teams face off in the final, MAC beating UP 2-2 due to extending a lost court to  a super tie-break.

Last, there was a 5.0 men's round-robin where Seattle Forest Crest went 3-0 against three other Portland teams.

The result is at the four advancing levels (3.0 thru 4.5), Seattle won four and Portland won four, so very balanced between the two largest districts in the section.  If you count the 2.5 and 5.0 levels, Seattle did come out ahead  6-5.

Congratulations to all the teams headed to Nationals!

Seattle area teams sweep PNW 2023 18 & Over Sectionals

The 18 & Over Sectionals for Pacific Northwest were held this weekend, and remarkably the Seattle area teams (Northwest Washington) pulled of the clean sweep and in fact in most cases both finalists were from Seattle.

The 2.5 women saw two Seattle teams make the final, but WSC did it with a 2-1 record winning the tie-breaker over a Portland team at 2-1, and Mercer Island won the final 2-1 to punch their ticket to Nationals.

The 2.5 men had just four teams so just played round-robin and Seattle teams took first and second, ETC ahead of Columbia Silver Lake.  There is no Nationals at this level however, so just a Sectionals title.

The 3.0 women found Seattle teams ETC and Mercer Island in the final, each winning their flights with 3-0 records, and ETC took the title with a 4-1 win.

The 3.0 men also had Seattle teams in the final with TCSP and ETC meeting up having both gone 3-0, and TCSP took the 3-2 win to be heading to Nationals.

The 3.5 women had the first non-Seattle team in a final with Portland's MAC facing off against AYTC from Seattle, and AYTC won 5-0.

The 3.5 men was back to two Seattle teams with Forest Crest winning over Mill Creek 3-2 in the final.

The 4.0 women saw Southwest Washington (Tacoma/Olympia) make an appearance in a final facing off against AYTC from Seattle, and AYTC won 3-2.

The 4.0 men found two Seattle teams in the final, RBW who went 2-1 in their flight against BETC who went 3-0, and RBW came out on top with a 4-1 win.

The 4.5 women had Southern Oregon make a finals showing facing off against NTC from Seattle, and NTC won 4-1.

The 4.5 men had two Seattle teams play in the final with WSC taking the title over AYTC.

For the 5.0 women, there was just one flight and round-robin play where AYTC from Seattle won over SHC from Portland.

Last, the 5.0 men was also round-robin and had perhaps the most competitive event with Mercer Island, the sole representative from Seattle vs three from Portland, being tied with THPRD from Portland tying at 2-1 and 5-4 on courts with the other two Portland teams at 1-2 and 4-5 on courts.  But Mercer Island won the head to head match with THPRD and took the title.

Congratulations to all the winners.  Good luck at Nationals!

Another unflighted round-robin disaster in the making at SoCal 40 & Over Sectionals

Southern California will be holding their Sectionals for the 40 & Over division in a few weeks, and once again the unflighted round-robin format is being used in a way that could likely result in an undefeated team not advancing.

I've written numerous times on the subject of the risks and occurrences of undefeated teams being sent home, so I won't go through them all again, but suffice it is to say, it has happened and the chances are often pretty good it will happen for a given event.

National uses the format for Nationals, and with 17 teams and four matches per team, there is almost always a chance of it happening, but the chance is very low, often around 1% or less.  Still, even with that low a chance, you would expect it to happen every 75-100 events or so.

But what has been done by several sections is to use the format in an even riskier way, and that is what SoCal is doing.  The riskier use is to have more than 17 teams, and have them play only three matches.  When this is done it is even more likely you get "islands" of teams where many teams to play each other and they can all go 3-0.

As of my writing this, the teams/schedules could still change a bit perhaps, but:

• The 3.0 women have 14 teams playing three matches each.
• The 3.5 women have 17 teams, and the schedule isn't up yet but they'll likely play three matches each.
• The 4.0 women have 18 teams playing three matches each.

These are the risky flights, the others have fewer teams or have flights.

The 4.0 women is the worst, more teams than Nationals and fewer matches, a recipe for disaster.  If all the teams were equal, my simulation says there could be as many as seven (7!) undefeated teams and there is a 2% chance of five or more.

But the teams aren't equal, and in that case some teams are more likely to win, and my simulation says there is over a 6% chance of five or more being undefeated.  It isn't odds on to happen of course, but that is a reasonably high chance and once you'd think they would try to avoid.

This can be seen if we look at this diagram showing who plays against who.

For example, SDNC-Flynn, SD-Webster, CC-Braun, V-Schoenburg, V-Chao, SD-Dielman, and SDNC-Moses all don't play each other and could each finish 3-0.

The other two scenarios are not as bad.  The 3.0 women with 14 teams has a less than 1% chance of five or more undefeated.

We'll see what happens!

SoCal 18 & Over Sectionals may be another unflighted round-robin disaster

It is the time of year that Sectionals begin to be played, and some sections elect to use the the unflighted round-robin format to identify the teams to advance to a single elimination bracket.  In this format, each team plays the same number of matches against random opponents, and then the top-2 or top-4 teams advance to a final or semi-finals.  USTA National began using it several years ago, and more sections are using it for Sectionals when the number of teams they have doesn't nicely fit into an even number of sub-flights.

The major problem with the format is that when not done correctly, there is a chance of a team going undefeated and not advancing.  The way Nationals is run with 17 sections and each team playing four matches, there is usually a very small chance of it happening, and it has come close to happening twice but hasn't yet.  However, the way some sections implement it there has been a far higher chance of it happening and it has happened at least once in NorCal.

The typical problem is having too many teams not playing enough matches.  In NorCal's case they've had over 20 teams in some flights and played just three matches.  That is a recipe for disaster and a 5th place team that was undefeated got sent home.

Well, it appears it may happen again this weekend.  SoCal is holding its 18 & Over Sectionals and is using unflighted round robin with too many teams and not enough matches.  Specifically, using my simulation of the round-robin, the problematic levels are:

• 3.0 Women - 14 teams playing 3 matches for 4 spots - More than 3% chance of 5+ undefeated.
• 3.5 Women - 17 teams playing 3 matches for 4 spots - More than 5% chance of 5+ undefeated before the event, part way through it is now over 42%!
• 4.0 Men - 10 teams playing 3 matches for 4 spots - Less than 1% chance of 5+ undefeated, but there is a chance.

The other levels are either in sub-flights or don't have too many teams.

The 3.0 women and 4.0 men have very slim chances of it happening, but we will see how the 3.5 women finish up, but I think there is a good chance an undefeated team is sent home!

2019 Southern 18 & Over USTA League Sectionals Recap

The Southern section held their 18 & Over Sectionals this weekend, actually the last finals finishing up today, and here is a recap.

First, the weather.  The event was again in Mobile, and again there was rain.  So much that by the end they were playing no-ad and short sets to 4 rather than 6.  Note that 40 & Over is back at Mobile against this weekend and the forecast is for a 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms Saturday thru Monday, so there could be format changes again.  Let's hope the rain isn't too bad and a Sectionals Champ isn't decided with a short format.

Second, this Sectionals used the flightless random round-robin format for some events, it appears where there were fewer than 10 teams and so they couldn't have two five team flights.  Thankfully, unlike NorCal's use of the format where they had as many as 21 teams in the round-robin and each team play only 3 matches, Southern had each team play 4 round-robin matches and with only 7-9 teams in the round-robin, there were no undefeated teams left out from advancing to the semis.

That isn't to say things were always clear-cut.  There were some ties for the advancing spots:

• The 2.5 women had seven teams in the round-robin and three teams tied at 2-2 for 3rd-5th, but the 3rd and 4th teams had better court records.
• The 4.0 women had nine teams in the round-robin and a 4-way tie for 4th at 2-2, but one team had a better court record and advance, but still very close.  One super tie-break goes the other way in a number of matches and the result is a lot different.
• The 4.5 women had eight teams but no tie for the last advancing spot.
• The 3.0 men had eight teams and a 3-way tie for 4th, the advancing team having the better court record.
• The 5.0+ men had seven teams and a 2-way tie for 4th, the advancing team having the better court record.

So the format seemed to work well, and thankfully things were decided on court records and didn't get to the bad tie-breakers.

Third, we need to check if any Sectional Champs were early start league teams with bumped up players that won't be eligible at Nationals.

• The 3.0 men had a Georgia and Alabama team in the final, both from ESLs with players that are now 3.5s, and Georgia won.  They have just one 3.5 though so the team will largely be the same at Nationals.
• The 4.5 women had an ESL Georgia team in the final, but they did not have any year-end 5.0s and lost to Kentucky in the final anyway.
• The 4.0 women had an ESL Tennessee team in the final with one year-end 4.5, but Louisiana won the final.
• The 3.0 women had an ESL Georgia team with 7(!) now 3.5s playing a Tennessee ESL team with 3 now 3.5s.  Georgia predictably won and now goes to Nationals with a radically different roster than they won Sectionals with.  The seven ineligible players played in 66% of the player slots in round-robin.
• The 2.5 women had an ESL Tennessee team with 6 of 10 eligible players now 3.0s win and advance to Nationals.  Note that these 3.0s may be eligible for Nationals as the 2.5 level is granted an exception and players must be "clearly above level" to not be eligible for Nationals.

So one team will definitely be affected, and two others may have minor impacts to their Nationals eligible rosters.

Were you at the event?  How did it go or what are your thoughts?