Drilling in to what sections make USTA League Nationals semi-finals the most - Counts by division

USTA League Nationals are over for the Adult leagues and I took a look at how many times each section made the semi-finals overall, now it is time to break it down by division.

First we look at the 18 & Over division.

Southern led the overall totals and leads for 18 & Over too, and Intermountain isn't far behind despite making only one semi this year.  They made a whopping 7 of 11 semi-finals in 2021.

Next, 40 & Over.

Southern leads here too, but Texas is second and three sections are tied behind them.  Texas made the semis in 75% (6 of 8) of the events this year.

Last, 55 & Over.

Southern Cal leads here also going to 75% (6 of 8) of the semis this year, but went to 7 of 8 in 2021!  Southern falls all the way to second.

What sections make the semis at USTA League Nationals the most often? Southern and SoCal lead!

With the Adult Nationals (18 & Over, 40 & Over, and 55 & Over) complete, I thought I'd take a look at how often each of the sections make the semis.

I'll probably end up slicing this data by gender and division, but to start we'll just look at the total across both genders and all three divisions over the past three years (2021-2023).

We see that Southern and SoCal are well ahead of the rest with 41 and 35 appearances respectively, but Midwest, Florida, and Texas make a good showing each with 25 or more semi-final appearances.

All of the sections do show up, although 2022 was the only one of the three years were every section wasn't represented with Southwest missing out.

In the above, i used 2021 thru 2023 as that is post-COVID.  If we look at the three years pre-COVID it is similar, but not the same.

We see Southern still leads with nearly the same total, but Texas and Florida on close behind, SoCal drops down to mid-pack and PNW moves up some.

Still, there is a clear trend of the same handful of Sections consistently making the semis more than the rest, and Southern has been at the top throughout this period.

What do you think?  Is this expected?  Southern is by far the largest section and teams have to go through more playoffs that most other areas to get to Nationals, are they more battle tested?

Or do warm weather sections have an advantage in that players can more easily play year-round and continue to improve or be sharp come Nationals?

Should the USTA do something to give the smaller sections a better chance at making the semis more regularly?

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 5 Recap - 9 new champions crowned

Week 5 of 2023 USTA League Nationals is over, and with all of the Adult (18 & Over, 40 & Over, and 55 & Over) are complete.  We only have a couple weekends of Mixed Nationals left on the calendar the next two weekends.

You can see prior recaps here.

This weekend had 9 events going on, the busiest of the year.

The 40 & Over division wrapped up this weekend with the 4.0 level in San Diego.

The women's event saw two 3-1 wins with Southern beating Florida and Midwest beating SoCal in the semis, and then Southern swept the final 4-0.

For the men Texas beat Mid-Atlantic 3-1 and Middle States swept Midwest 4-0 before a tight 2-2 final with Middle States taking it losing 4 fewer games.

The 55 & Over division also wrapped up but with two levels, 7.0 and 9.0 in Orlando.

The 7.0 women had two 2-1 wins in the semis for Midwest over Hawaii and SoCal over Southwest, and then a 2-1 win for SoCal in the final.

The 7.0 men also had 2-1 wins in each semi and the final with Southern beating Eastern and SoCal beating Caribbean with Southern taking the final.

At the 9.0 level, the women's event had Eastern beat New England and Florida beat SoCal, both by 2-1 margins, before Florida won the final 3-0.

The 9.0 men had two 3-0 wins in the semis, SoCal over Middle States and NorCal over Eastern, and NorCal took battle of California 2-1.

Then, Mixed 18 & Over got going in Arizona with three levels playing.

The 6.0 event had Southern beat PNW 3-0 and NorCal take out Middle States 2-1 with Southern winning the final 2-1.

At 8.0, New England and SoCal both won 2-1 over PNW and Florida respectively, with SoCal winning the final by a 2-1 score.

And at 10.0, the semis were both won 2-1 by SoCal over NorCal and PNW over Mid-Atlantic and then SoCal won the final 3-0.

Congratulations to the new National Champions!

What ties did we have for week 5 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

The round-robin of this weekend's USTA League Nationals is complete (or nearly so) and we have 9 sets of semi-finalists.

The 55 & Over 7.0 was played in Orlando and the women had two 4-0 teams in Midwest and Southwest, then a huge 6-way tie at 3-1 for two spots.  SoCal and Hawaii were 9-3 on courts so got the spots ahead of Southern and Texas (both 8-4), Eastern (7-5) and PNW (6-6).  PNW is probably a little bummed as they went 3-1 and beat Hawaii, but had to play 4-0 / 11-1 Midwest and lost 3-0.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Two of those teams were favorites in the simulation.

The men also had two 4-0 teams in Southern and SoCal, then a 5-way tie at 3-1.  Caribbean got the 3rd spot at 9-3 on courts, then Eastern and Middle States were 8-4 and Eastern lost fewer sets to take the last spot.  Southern was a surprise, but the other three were favorites or contenders in the simulation.

The 55 & Over 9.0 was also in Orlando and the women had two 4-0 teams in Eastern and SoCal, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with Florida and New England both 9-3 on courts to take the spots over 8-4 Southern and 7-5 Middle States.  Three of those were favorites and another one a contender in the simulation!

The men had a 6-way tie at 3-1!  SoCal, Eastern, NorCal, and Middle States were all 3-1 or better to take the spots over 7-5 Missouri Valley and 6-6 Texas.  Two of those teams were favorites in the simulation.

The 40 & Over 4.0 was in San Diego and the women had three 4-0 teams in Southern, Midwest, and SoCal and then just two teams at 3-1, Florida being 11-5 on courts to beat out 10-6 Middle States.  Two of these teams were favorites and one was a contender in the simulation.

The men had one 4-0 team in Texas, then a 6-way tie at 3-1.  Midwest was 12-4 and then 11-5 teams Middle States and Mid-Atlantic rounded out the semi-finalists ahead of NorCal and Southern (10-6) and SoCal (9-7).  NorCal was 3-1 / 10-6 and beat Midwest 3-1 head to head, but they were a court back so didn't get the spot.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Three of the semi-finalsts were favorites or contenders in the simulation.

The 18 & Over Mixed got started in Arizona and the 6.0 level had a nice and tidy four 4-0 teams in Southern, NorCal, Middle States, and PNW.  The simulation nailed this one, these teams being the top-4 teams expected to make the semis!

The 8.0 level had two 4-0 teams in New England and SoCal and then three 3-1 teams for two spots.  Florida was 9-3 getting one spot, and PNW at 8-4 beat out Southern with the same record due to beating them head to head.  Three of the semi-finalists were in the top-6 of the simulation.

Last, the 10.0 level had five 3-1 teams for the four spots and SoCal, PNW, Mid-Atlantic, and NorCal were all 8-4 or better to beat out Eastern at 6-6.  Eastern did beat NorCal head to head but had to play Mid-Atlantic which hurt their court record.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Three of those teams were the top-3 in the simulation, and the other was a contender.

Good luck to all the teams on Sunday!

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 5 Day 1 Observations

Day 1 of week 5 of USTA League Nationals is in the books, here are some observations.

The last 40 & Over event of the year is the 4.0 men and women.

The women have only four 2-0 teams in Southern, SoCal, Midwest, and New England, and the simulation now says it won't stay that way with just a 13% chance of even three 4-0 teams.  Look for Middle States, Eastern, and Florida to be the most likely to break up those top-4.

The men have five 2-0 teams in Texas, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, NorCal, and Southern, and just a 10% chance of four 4-0 teams.  The four semi-finalists are likely to come from those five, but SoCal will try to insert themselves into the mix.

The 55 & Over 7.0 women have five 2-0 teams in Southern, SoCal, Midwest, Southwest, and PNW and just a 3% chance of four 4-0 teams.  Look for NorCal and Texas as the most likely to get in the mix.

The 7.0 men have just four 2-0 teams, Southern, SoCal, Midwest, and PNW, and it is very unlikely we have four or even three remain 4-0.  Carribean and Eastern are most likely to join in.

The 9.0 women have Florida, NorCal, Eastern, SoCal, and Intermountain all 2-0 but just an 8% of four 4-0 teams.  New England is most likely to try to break things up.

The men have have SoCal, Southern, Middle States, and NorCal all 2-0, and a decent 28% chance of three 4-0 at the end.  It is very likely those four are the semi-finalists.

18 & Over Mixed is going on with three levels in play.

The 6.0 has six 2-0 teams, but some play each other and just a 15% chance four remain that way.  The current top-4 of Southern, NorCal, Middle States, and PNW are the ones likely to advance.

The 8.0 also has six 2-0 teams, but just a 2% chance of four 4-0 teams.  New England, SoCal, Southern, and Florida are the ones likely to advance.

And the 10.0 has just two 2-0 teams due to just 10 teams there, New England and PNW, and those teams play each other and there will be five teams vying for four spots, NorCal, New England, PNW, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic.

It should be an exciting finish to the round-robin on Saturday.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 10.0 Mixed

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 10.0 mixed.

Teams: 10

Chance of 3 undefeated: 13%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 2%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 54% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.95 / 4.56

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.86 / 4.68

Favorites: Mid-Atlantic, New England, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Middle States, PNW

Just 10 teams, but not as competitive as you might think due to the schedule and a few really strong teams.  With just 10, you might think a 2-2 record has a shot in some scenarios, and it does, a decent 34%.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 6.0 Mixed

The fifth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 6.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 15%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.28 / 2.98

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.15 / 3.03

Favorites: Middle States, NorCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England, PNW

Another competitive event with little chance of a lot of undefeated teams and a lot of contenders.  3-1 almost certainly makes the semis, question is how many will be there and what will break the tie.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.