2025 USTA League Nationals Week 1 Day 2 Recap

Day two is in the books, and despite some continued delays due to rain in Arizona, semi-finalists are set, and even played in some cases.  Here is a recap.

The 2.5 women saw NorCal, Caribbean, and MO Valley all finish 4-0 and were joined by Southern at 3-1.  The simulation nailed it with those four being the top-4 favorites, although it called for just one to have a most likely record of 4-0.

The 3.5 men had Midwest and SoCal finish 4-0, and were joined by PNW and Florida at 3-1.  Midwest was a surprise being just a contender in the simulation, while SoCal and PNW were contenders, and just Florida was a favorite.

The 3.5 women had two 4-0 teams in Texas and Midwest, and then a 3-way tie at 3-1 / 12-8 for two spots with Mid-Atlantic and Florida taking it over New England on fewer sets lost.  Texas and Florida were favorites, but the other two were just in the have a chance category in the simulation.

The 4.0 men was really competitive with several of the top teams playing each other, the end result was Florida at 4-0, then a whopping seven (!) teams at 3-1 with Texas, Eastern, and Intermountain being the ones to advance.  Note that Texas played Florida and Intermountain, and Florida played Eastern, so there is a good chance of a rematch in the final.  The simulation had all four of these teams as favorites and also predicted a bunch of 3-1 teams.

The 4.0 women had three 4-0 teams, those being NorCal, Southern, and Florida, and then SoCal was the best of three 3-1 teams.  The simulation had NorCal, Southern, and SoCal as the top-3 favorites, and Florida was a contender as the 6th pick, so not bad.

Then the 5.0 men had two 4-0 teams in Southwest and Midwest, then PNW and Intermountain joined them at 3-1.  Midwest was a big surprise, the only team not highlighted in the simulation, but PNW and Intermountain were favorites and Southwest just a "has a chance" team.  And this event already played their semis with Southwest and Midwest advancing with 2-1 wins.

Last, the 5.0 women also had two 4-0 teams in Intermountain and Midwest, and SoCal and PNW were the only 3-1 teams so they joined them in the semis.  All four teams were favorites in the simulation so nailed this one too.  They also played their semis with PNW and Midwest advancing.

Good luck to all the teams on Sunday!

A recap of week 3 and 4 of 2024 USTA League Nationals 55 & Over

Week 4, the last one, of this year's USTA League Nationals is in the books, and we have nine new Nationals Champions.

The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with all of the 18 & Over Mixed being played this weekend, plus a few 55 & Over events.  I didn't cover the 55 & Over last week so I'll review those events from the past two weekends, all played in Scottsdale.

First from two weekends ago.

The 55 & Over 7.0 Women had two 4-0 teams, Southern and PNW, were joined by 3-1 Southwest and Texas in the semis who beat out Midwest on court record.  The two 3-1 teams won the semis each 2-1 with Southwest then beating Texas 2-1 in the final.  Southern and Southwest were favorites in the simulation, the other a bit of a surprise.

The 55 & Over 7.0 Men had four 4-0 teams, PNW, Texas, Eastern, and Midwest.  In the semis Midwest and Eastern won 2-1 each and then Eastern won the final also 2-1.  All four teams were favorites or contenders in the simulation.

The 55 & Over 9.0 Women had 4-0 Florida, Texas, and SoCal were joined by 3-1 Mid-Atlantic who beat out two other 3-1 teams on court record.  The semis saw Mid-Atlantic take out Florida 3-0 with Texas winning the other semi 2-1, but there is no winner listed on TennisLink as of now.  All four teams were favorites or solid contenders in the simulation.

And the 55 & Over 9.0 men had NorCal and MoValley go 4-0 and were joined by Midwest and Middle States who got in on court record.  Middle States and MoValley won semis 2-1, and then MoValley won the final 2-1.  Three of these teams were favorites in the simulation, just MoValley was a bit of a surprise.

Then from this weekend.

The 55 & Over 6.0 Women had just one 4-0 team, Southern, with a 6-way tie at 3-1 for three spots.  The top-4 all had 9-3 court records and Florida, NorCal, and Caribbean got in on fewer sets lost.  Southern and NorCal made the final where NorCal won 2-1.  Southern and NorCal were favorites, Caribbean a contender in the simulation.

The 55 & Over 6.0 Men was a similar scenario with 4-0 Southern and six 3-1 teams with the top-3 on court record being SoCal, NorCal, and Intermountain advancing.  Intermountain beat SoCal in the final 3-0.  The simulation had all four teams in the top-5 expected to make the semis.

The 55 & Over 8.0 Women had three 4-0 teams in NorCal, Hawaii, and SoCal, and then New England was the best 3-1 team.  NorCal and SoCal played in the final with SoCal won it all 3-0.  NorCal and SoCal were favorites in the simulation, Hawaii a solid contender.

Last, the 55 & Over 8.0 Men had four 4-0 teams in Southern, Caribbean, Midwest, and Eastern.  Southern and Caribbean won their semis 2-1 and Southern won the final 2-1.  Just Eastern wasn't a favorite or contender in the simulation.

Congratulations to all the champions.

A recap of week 3 of 2024 USTA League Nationals Mixed

Week 3 of this year's USTA League Nationals is in the books, and we have nine new Nationals Champions.

The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with all of the 18 & Over Mixed being played this weekend, plus a few 55 & Over events.  A recap of 55 & Over will follow, here are the Mixed recaps.

The 18 & Over Mixed 6.0 was played in Surprise and three 4-0 teams made the semis in Florida, Hawaii, and Southwest, and they were joined by Middle States, perhaps fortunate to get in ahead of PNW on the broken standings tie-breaker as they were tied on sets lost and PNW won more sets, but the USTA doesn't consider won sets.  Middle States won their semi over Flordai 2-1 as did Hawaii over Southwest, and then Hawaii won the title.  The simulation had Southwest and Middle States as the top-2 favorites with Hawaii and contender and Florida just outside that group.

Also in Surprise was the 18 & Over Mixed 8.0 and they also had three 4-0 teams in PNW, Hawaii, and SoCal with New England joining the group at 3-1 winning the courts tie-breaker.  In the semis PNW beat New England and SoCal beat Hawaii before PNW took the title.  The simulation had Hawaii as a favorite and the other three semifinalists as contenders.

Last in Surprise was the 18 & Over Mixed 10.0 and with just 10 teams competing, fourth place was a 2-2 NorCal team that joined 3-1 SoCal and MoValley and 4-0 Intermountain.  NorCal pulled the upset over Intermountain in one semi while SoCal won the other, and no winner is listed on TennisLink although the 3rd/4th match does show a winner.  The simulation had SoCal, Intermountain, and NorCal as the top-3 favorites, just MoValley the surprise to make the semis.

Orlando also hosted 18 & Over Mixed with the 7.0 there and Caribbean and SoCal advancing as 4-0 teams joined by 3-1 Hawaii and Mid-Atlantic.  Mid-Atlantic pulled the upset in the semis to face SoCal with SoCal coming out on top.  The simulation liked SoCal as the top favorite, but also Hawaii there too, and Mid-Atlantic and Caribbean as contenders so it did pretty well.

And in the 18 & Over Mixed 9.0, three 4-0 teams advanced with Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern, which were joined by solitary 3-1 New England.  Florida and Mid-Atlantic won their semis and Mid-Atlantic took the title.  The simulation had Florida and Mid-Atlantic as two of the favorites with Southern and New England both as contenders, so again a good prediction.

Congratulations to all the champions.

A recap of week 2 of 2024 USTA League Nationals

Week 2 of this year's USTA League Nationals is in the books, and we have eight new Nationals Champions.

The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with a full four events this first weekend.

The 18 & Over 3.5 men were in San Diego and they had a 3-way tie for the last semi spot with Intermountain taking it despite having the same court record and sets lost as SoCal, but they lost fewer games so they advanced even though their game winning percentage was not as good, another case of the flawed tie-breakers choosing the wrong team.  They joined 4-0 Middle States, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic in the semis and Intermountain came through in their semi 4-1 to face Mid-Atlantic who won 3-2, where Intermountain took the title.  The simulation had three of the semi-finalists as favorites or contenders, but Intermountain was a bit of a surprise.

The 18 & Over 3.5 women had a 5-way tie at 3-1 for two spots, Florida and SoCal taking them on court record.  SoCal took out NorCal 4-1 while Florida beat Intermountain 3-2 before Florida won the final 4-1.  The simulation had Florida, SoCal, and Intermountain but NorCal was a surprise.

The 40 & Over 3.0 men were in Scottsdale and just one 4-0 team, Florida, with 5-way tie for the remaining three spots saw Southern, PNW, and Intermountain take the spots on court record.  Intermountain beat Florida 5-0 while Southern took out PNW 3-2, before Southern won the final 5-0.  The simulation liked liked Intermountain, Southern, and Florida, but PNW was a surprise.

The 40 & Over 3.0 women saw three 4-0 teams in Middle States, SoCal, and NorCal, and then a 4-way tie for the last spot with Eastern taking it on court record.  Middle States beat Eastern 4-1 while SoCal beat NorCal 3-2, and then SoCal won the final 4-1.  The four semi-finalists were all in the simulation's top-6, so not bad.

The 40 & Over 4.5 men were in Surprise and had three 4-0 teams, Southern, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic, Southern only losing one court, and then a four way tie for the last spot with Intermountain taking it on fewer sets lost over NorCal and Midwest.  Southern ended up winning it beating Intermountain 4-1 and then SoCal 3-2 after SoCal beat Mid-Atlantic 3-2.  The simulation liked Southern as the favorite with SoCal next and Had NorCal as a favorite along with Intermountain as a contender as was Mid-Atlantic, so a very good prediction.

The 40 & Over 4.5 women had just a 2-way tie at 4-0 for two spots, Southern, and Mid-Atlantic, and then four teams vying for the last two spots at 3-1 with NorCal and SoCal taking the spots on court record.  The semis saw Southern beat SoCal 3-2 and NorCal beat Mid-Atlantic by the same score, and then Southern won 3-2 in the final.  The simulation had Mid-Atlantic and SoCal as favorites and NorCal and Southern as contenders.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women were in Orlando and had five tied at 3-1 for one semi spot and it went to Southwest on court record, them joining 4-0 Mid-Atlantic, SoCal, and Florida.  Mid-Atlantic beat Southwest in one semi 3-2, and Florida beat SoCal also 3-2 where Mid-Atlantic won the title also 3-2.  The simulation had Southwest, SoCal, and Florida as the top three teams with Mid-Atlantic a contender, so not too bad.

Last, the event I was at, the 40 & Over 4.0 men had four 4-0 teams, but very nearly had five before my team upset Midwest in our last match.  The irony of my team "saving" the USTA from five 4-0 teams is not lost on me as I would have had fun writing about it happening again, but my team fought and pulled out the win much to New England's delight as they would have been the 5th 4-0 team going home.   It is actually the second time a PNW team upset a 4-0 bound team avoided five 4-0 teams in just two weeks.  Florida, Southern, and Eastern were the other semi-finalists and Florida beat New England and Eastern got by Southern with three match TB wins, and then Florida won the final.  The simulation had Eastern, Midwest, and Southern as favorites and Florida as a contender, just New England was a bit of a surprise.

On a personal note, playing at the National Campus was a blast, it was my first time there and it is a great facility.  Not making the semis we even took the opportunity to play on clay on Sunday since we rarely have the chance.  We had a very tough schedule facing the teams that finish 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th and they had a combined 14-2 record, one loss to us (Midwest) and the other loss when two of those played each other.  But we still had a great time and had competitive matches, I alone had three match tie-breaks, one going to 20-18!  Thanks to the USTA for putting on a well run event.

Congratulations to all the champions.

A recap of week 1 of 2024 USTA League Nationals

Week 1 of this year's USTA League Nationals is in the books, and we have nine new Nationals Champions.

The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with a full five events this first weekend.

The 18 & Over 2.5 women played in Scottsdale and had a 3-way tie for the last semi spot with Florida clearly having the best record.  They swept a Missouri Valley team that hadn't lost a court in one semi while Southern beat Texas 2-1, with Southern then sweeping Florida in the final.  For what it is worth, the pre-event simulation had all four semi-finalists correct.

The 18 & Over 3.0 men were in San Diego and they too had a 3-way tie for the last semi spot with Caribbean clearly having the best record.  They couldn't get past Southern though in one semi losing 4-1 while Northern California took out Pacific Northwest in the other semi 3-2 before Southern took the final 3-2 pulling a tiny upset on 2S for the win.  The simulation didn't do as well here having NorCal and Southern as near locks, but Caribbean and PNW were the 6th and 7th picks to make it to the semis.

The 18 & Over 3.0 women had a 6-way tie at 3-1 for two spots, Caribbean and Southern taking them on court record.  NorCal took out Southern 4-1 while Pacific Northwest beat Caribbean by the same score before NorCal won the final 5-0.  The simulation had Southern and NorCal making the semis, but had Caribbean and PNW 7th and 9th most likely to advance.

The 40 & Over 3.5 men were in Orlando and saw a 4-way tie for the last semi spot with Middle States getting it on court record.  The lost to Southern 3-2 in one semi while Texas beat Intermountain by the same score in the other before Texas swept the doubles, two in match tie-breaks, for the 3-2 win.  The simulation like Middle States and Southern, and had Texas and Intermountain as the 6th and 7th picks.

The 40 & Over 3.5 women saw a 5-way tie for three spots with Mid-Atlantic getting in on court record and Eastern and Midwest in on fewer sets lost.  Mid-Atlantic beat Eastern 3-2 in their semi, while NorCal beat Midwest 3-2 in the other and then NorCal won the final 3-2.  The simulation like Midwest and NorCal as the two most likely, but Eastern and Mid-Atlantic were 10th and 12th most likely to make it.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men were in Surprise and had four 4-0 teams, there was a chance of a 5th going in to the last match, with Intermountain beating Middle States 3-2 in one semi while Southern beat NorCal 3-2 in the other.  Southern won the final 3-2 to take the title.  The simulation liked Intermountain and NorCal, but Middle States and Southern were the 6th and 7th picks.

The 18 & Over 4.0 women had a 3-way tie at 3-1 for the last semi spot and NorCal got it on court record.    They then lost to Eastern 5-0 in one semi while Mid-Atlantic took out Caribbean 4-1 in the other, before Mid-Atlantic won the final 3-2.  The simulation liked Eastern, but the others were 5th, 11th, and 15th!  Some teams were laying low it appears.

The 18 & Over 5.0 men were in Orlando and had four 3-1 teams tied for two semi spots and it went to the sets tie-breaker for NorCal to get in and games tie-breaker for Southern to allowing them to beat Florida 2-1 in one semi while Intermountain won the other by the same score, and then Intermountain won the final 2-1.  The simulation had all four teams in the top-5 most likely to make the semis.

The 18 & Over 5.0 women had three 3-1 teams vying for two spots with Texas and NorCal getting in on court record.  In the semis Texas got a 2-1 win over Middle States, while Intermountain took out NorCal 2-1 before Intermountain won the final 2-1.  The simulation had all but Texas as favorites to make the semis, they were the 8th pick

The simulations had the winner in the favorites in 6 of the 9 events, and had the other semi-finalists as favorites or nearly so in many of the events with just a few surprises, notably at the 4.0 level.

Congratulations to all the champions.

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 7 Recap - The last four new National Champs

Week 7, the last one, of USTA League Nationals is over, and four new champions were crowned.

The 18 & Over 7.0 had 2-1 wins in every match with SoCal beating NorCal in one semi and Texas beating Southern in the other, then Texas won the final.

The 18 & Over 9.0 had Mid-Atlantic beat Missouri Valley 3-0 and Southern beat NorCal 2-1 in the semis, then Mid-Atlantic won the final 2-1.

The 40 & Over 8.0 had two 2-1 wins in the semis for Florida over Middle States and SoCal over Eastern, and SoCal won the final 3-0.

The 40 & Over 6.0 also had 2-1 wins in the semis and a 3-0 win in the final with NorCal beating Middle States and Eastern beating Caribbean in the semis, and then NorCal won the final.

With that, Nationals is over, and now we wait for year-end ratings.  The USTA sent a note out saying 11/30 is the target date, so under two weeks to go!

Congratulations to all the champions.

What ties did we have for week 7 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

The last weekend of Nationals is on-going and the round-robin has wrapped up.  Here is how things have played out in the matches, all being play in Orlando at the National Campus and all Mixed.

The 18 & Over 9.0 found three teams unblemished at 4-0, Mid-Atlantic, NorCal, and Southern, and a 3-way tie at 3-1 for the last spot.  Midwest was a court back at 7-5 but Florida and Missouri Valley were tied at 8-4 as well as tied on sets lost (10), so it went to games lost and Missouri Valley lost fewer, 91 vs 94, and took the spot.  The teams advancing were numbers 1, 3, 4, and 6 in the simulation, so not too bad!

The 18 & Over 7.0 also had three 4-0 teams and a 3-way tie at 3-1, the unblemished teams being SoCal, Southern, and Texas.  NorCal was the best 3-1 team with a 9-3 court record, two better than Caribbean at 7-5 and New England at 6-6.  The teams advancing were numbers 1, 2, 3, and 7 in the simulation, again not bad!

The 40 & Over 6.0 still has a few matches to complete as I write this, but it appears the semi-finalists are decided with a 4-0 Eastern, 3-1 Caribbean and Middle States a court ahead of 3-1 Southern (8-4 vs 7-5), and then it appears NorCal, presently 3-0, has a spot wrapped up as they can do no worse than 3-1 / 8-4 which would be the fourth team at that record.  SoCal could also get to 3-1 / 8-4 if they sweep their last match, but they've already lost more sets than the others.  Again, the simulation had the advancing teams 1, 2, 3, and 7!

Last, the 40 & Over 8.0 had a nice tidy four 4-0 teams, Florida, SoCal, Eastern, and Middle States.  The simulation had these teams 2, 3, 4, and 6!

Congratulations to the semi-finalists!

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 6 Recap - Only two new National Champs

Week 6 of USTA League Nationals is over, and only two new champions were crowned on the least busy weekend of Nationals this year.  Next weekend Nationals wrap up with four Mixed events in Orlando and San Diego.

You can see prior recaps here.

The 40 & Over 7.0 saw NorCal beat Mid-Atlantic in one semi 2-1, while Eastern beat Florida 3-0 in the other (but every match in a super tie-break!), before NorCal won the final 2-1, one of the won courts in a super tie-break.  Close!

The 9.0 level saw Texas beat New England 2-1 and PNW beat Midwest 3-0, and then PNW won the final 3-0, all in straight sets.

Congratulations to the new champs!

What ties did we have for week 6 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

This weekend's Nationals round-robin is complete so we can take a look at who has made the semis and what ties there were.  This weekend was a light one with just the 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed going on.

For the 7.0 level, there were four 2-0 teams after day one, but just two ended up 4-0, NorCal who didn't even drop a court, and Florida.  There were four 3-1 teams behind them and Eastern and Mid-Atlantic took the last two semi-finalist spots with better court records than Missouri Valley and Middle States.  Florida and NorCal were the top-2 picks to make the semis, and Mid-Atlantic and Eastern were 5th and 7th most likely, so the simulation did pretty well.

At 9.0, it was even more competitive with a bunch of 1-1 teams after day one, and the top-6 teams all being  3-1.  New England, PNW, and Midwest had the three best court records, and then Texas took the 4th spot being tied on court record at 8-4 but losing fewer sets than Southern.  All four of the semi-finalists were in the simulation's contenders.

Good luck the semis tomorrow!

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 5 Recap - 9 new champions crowned

Week 5 of 2023 USTA League Nationals is over, and with all of the Adult (18 & Over, 40 & Over, and 55 & Over) are complete.  We only have a couple weekends of Mixed Nationals left on the calendar the next two weekends.

You can see prior recaps here.

This weekend had 9 events going on, the busiest of the year.

The 40 & Over division wrapped up this weekend with the 4.0 level in San Diego.

The women's event saw two 3-1 wins with Southern beating Florida and Midwest beating SoCal in the semis, and then Southern swept the final 4-0.

For the men Texas beat Mid-Atlantic 3-1 and Middle States swept Midwest 4-0 before a tight 2-2 final with Middle States taking it losing 4 fewer games.

The 55 & Over division also wrapped up but with two levels, 7.0 and 9.0 in Orlando.

The 7.0 women had two 2-1 wins in the semis for Midwest over Hawaii and SoCal over Southwest, and then a 2-1 win for SoCal in the final.

The 7.0 men also had 2-1 wins in each semi and the final with Southern beating Eastern and SoCal beating Caribbean with Southern taking the final.

At the 9.0 level, the women's event had Eastern beat New England and Florida beat SoCal, both by 2-1 margins, before Florida won the final 3-0.

The 9.0 men had two 3-0 wins in the semis, SoCal over Middle States and NorCal over Eastern, and NorCal took battle of California 2-1.

Then, Mixed 18 & Over got going in Arizona with three levels playing.

The 6.0 event had Southern beat PNW 3-0 and NorCal take out Middle States 2-1 with Southern winning the final 2-1.

At 8.0, New England and SoCal both won 2-1 over PNW and Florida respectively, with SoCal winning the final by a 2-1 score.

And at 10.0, the semis were both won 2-1 by SoCal over NorCal and PNW over Mid-Atlantic and then SoCal won the final 3-0.

Congratulations to the new National Champions!

What ties did we have for week 5 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

The round-robin of this weekend's USTA League Nationals is complete (or nearly so) and we have 9 sets of semi-finalists.

The 55 & Over 7.0 was played in Orlando and the women had two 4-0 teams in Midwest and Southwest, then a huge 6-way tie at 3-1 for two spots.  SoCal and Hawaii were 9-3 on courts so got the spots ahead of Southern and Texas (both 8-4), Eastern (7-5) and PNW (6-6).  PNW is probably a little bummed as they went 3-1 and beat Hawaii, but had to play 4-0 / 11-1 Midwest and lost 3-0.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Two of those teams were favorites in the simulation.

The men also had two 4-0 teams in Southern and SoCal, then a 5-way tie at 3-1.  Caribbean got the 3rd spot at 9-3 on courts, then Eastern and Middle States were 8-4 and Eastern lost fewer sets to take the last spot.  Southern was a surprise, but the other three were favorites or contenders in the simulation.

The 55 & Over 9.0 was also in Orlando and the women had two 4-0 teams in Eastern and SoCal, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with Florida and New England both 9-3 on courts to take the spots over 8-4 Southern and 7-5 Middle States.  Three of those were favorites and another one a contender in the simulation!

The men had a 6-way tie at 3-1!  SoCal, Eastern, NorCal, and Middle States were all 3-1 or better to take the spots over 7-5 Missouri Valley and 6-6 Texas.  Two of those teams were favorites in the simulation.

The 40 & Over 4.0 was in San Diego and the women had three 4-0 teams in Southern, Midwest, and SoCal and then just two teams at 3-1, Florida being 11-5 on courts to beat out 10-6 Middle States.  Two of these teams were favorites and one was a contender in the simulation.

The men had one 4-0 team in Texas, then a 6-way tie at 3-1.  Midwest was 12-4 and then 11-5 teams Middle States and Mid-Atlantic rounded out the semi-finalists ahead of NorCal and Southern (10-6) and SoCal (9-7).  NorCal was 3-1 / 10-6 and beat Midwest 3-1 head to head, but they were a court back so didn't get the spot.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Three of the semi-finalsts were favorites or contenders in the simulation.

The 18 & Over Mixed got started in Arizona and the 6.0 level had a nice and tidy four 4-0 teams in Southern, NorCal, Middle States, and PNW.  The simulation nailed this one, these teams being the top-4 teams expected to make the semis!

The 8.0 level had two 4-0 teams in New England and SoCal and then three 3-1 teams for two spots.  Florida was 9-3 getting one spot, and PNW at 8-4 beat out Southern with the same record due to beating them head to head.  Three of the semi-finalists were in the top-6 of the simulation.

Last, the 10.0 level had five 3-1 teams for the four spots and SoCal, PNW, Mid-Atlantic, and NorCal were all 8-4 or better to beat out Eastern at 6-6.  Eastern did beat NorCal head to head but had to play Mid-Atlantic which hurt their court record.  Should head-to-head be higher up on the list of tie-breakers?  Three of those teams were the top-3 in the simulation, and the other was a contender.

Good luck to all the teams on Sunday!

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 5 Day 1 Observations

Day 1 of week 5 of USTA League Nationals is in the books, here are some observations.

The last 40 & Over event of the year is the 4.0 men and women.

The women have only four 2-0 teams in Southern, SoCal, Midwest, and New England, and the simulation now says it won't stay that way with just a 13% chance of even three 4-0 teams.  Look for Middle States, Eastern, and Florida to be the most likely to break up those top-4.

The men have five 2-0 teams in Texas, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, NorCal, and Southern, and just a 10% chance of four 4-0 teams.  The four semi-finalists are likely to come from those five, but SoCal will try to insert themselves into the mix.

The 55 & Over 7.0 women have five 2-0 teams in Southern, SoCal, Midwest, Southwest, and PNW and just a 3% chance of four 4-0 teams.  Look for NorCal and Texas as the most likely to get in the mix.

The 7.0 men have just four 2-0 teams, Southern, SoCal, Midwest, and PNW, and it is very unlikely we have four or even three remain 4-0.  Carribean and Eastern are most likely to join in.

The 9.0 women have Florida, NorCal, Eastern, SoCal, and Intermountain all 2-0 but just an 8% of four 4-0 teams.  New England is most likely to try to break things up.

The men have have SoCal, Southern, Middle States, and NorCal all 2-0, and a decent 28% chance of three 4-0 at the end.  It is very likely those four are the semi-finalists.

18 & Over Mixed is going on with three levels in play.

The 6.0 has six 2-0 teams, but some play each other and just a 15% chance four remain that way.  The current top-4 of Southern, NorCal, Middle States, and PNW are the ones likely to advance.

The 8.0 also has six 2-0 teams, but just a 2% chance of four 4-0 teams.  New England, SoCal, Southern, and Florida are the ones likely to advance.

And the 10.0 has just two 2-0 teams due to just 10 teams there, New England and PNW, and those teams play each other and there will be five teams vying for four spots, NorCal, New England, PNW, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic.

It should be an exciting finish to the round-robin on Saturday.

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 4 Recap - A self-rated team wins, a 4-0 team misses the semis

Week 4 of USTA League Nationals is complete, here is a recap.  You can also see my recap after day 2 here.

This was the busiest week so far with 8 events going on.  And there were some notable events!

The most notable was that we had a team that went 4-0, didn't lose a match, and didn't advance to the semis!  This happened because five teams in the 40 & Over 3.0 men's event went 4-0 and only four can go to the semis.  The original simulation said it was a real possibility, then after the first day the chances went way up, and then it happened.  The team that got the short-end of the stick was Texas who finished in 5th.  In the semis we had two 2-2 ties, errr wins, with PNW beating Middle States due to one fewer set lost, and Southern beat NorCal also with one fewer set lost.  The final went to PNW in yet another 2-2 tie/win where they also lost one fewer set.

The 40 & Over 3.0 women was not quite as exciting until the final as Texas beat SoCal 4-0 and PNW beat NorCal 4-0, but in the final we had another 2-2 tie/win with Texas losing one fewer set.

The 18 & Over 4.0 women had its own form of excitement as Texas beat New England in one semi and Florida beat Mid-Atlantic in the other.  The final had Texas win 4-1.  What was the excitement?  Texas had a small roster, just 10, but the interesting thing is that 9 of those were self-rated.  Self-rated players at Nationals are not uncommon, but large numbers of them are usually at lower levels, not 4.0.  Everything could have been by the book and fair, but a team with that many self-rates winning Nationals makes you scratch your head.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men was relatively normal with Middle States beating Eastern and Southern taking out Florida to meet in the final where Southern won it all 3-2.  What is semi interesting is Southern has a fairly high shenanigans score indicating they had a lot of self-rates and/or players who had been 4.5s in the past.

[Update: Upon reviewing the Southern team, while the score was reasonably high, I saw no indication of any tanking, and self-rates didn't appear to manage scores, i.e. no shenanigans.  It appears to be a team that did it by the book.]

The 55 & Over events got going this weekend the 6.0 women saw MOValley beat SoCal and Northern beat Midwest, before MOValley won the final.

The 6.0 men was interesting in that they show SoCal in 4th, but 5th place Midwest in the semis.  Looking at the matches SoCal defaulted a court every match so must have been ruled ineligible to advance for that reason.  Normally teams must bring the minimum number of players, but I've heard of extenuating circumstances causing the shortage of players being a reason a team is allowed to play but they aren't eligible to advance.  The teams that did play had Midwest beat Eastern and Northern beat NorCal before Northern won it all.

The 8.0 women saw Texas beat Middle States and Florida beat Midwest before Florida won it all, all the matches 2-1 results.

Last, the 8.0 men saw Mid-Atlantic beat Southern and SoCal beat Florida with SoCal winning it all, again all the results were 2-1 so very close.

Congratulations to all the new champs!

What ties did we have for week 4 of 2023 USTA League Nationals? A 4-0 team sent home!

The round-robin for week 4 of 2023 USTA League Nationals is complete and we have eight sets of semi-finalists.

The 18 & Over 4.0 women had two 4-0 teams in Texas and Florida, then a 5-way tie at 3-1 for two spots.  Mid-Atlantic and New England went 14-6 and 13-7 on courts which was better than Southern and Middle States both at 12-8.  I noted in the preview/simulation that Texas had 9 self-rates and they came through to be the #1 seed perhaps bringing into question the validity of those self-ratings.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men also had two 4-0 teams in Middle States and Southern, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with Florida and Eastern getting the spots with better court records than SoCal and Hawaii.

The 40 & Over 3.0 women also had two 4-0 teams in Texas and NorCal, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with PNW and SoCal having better court records over Florida and Midwest.

The 40 & Over 3.0 men is where things got interesting with five 4-0 teams and Texas being sent home without a loss with the worse court record despite having a tougher schedule than those who did advance.  The teams going on are Middle States, NorCal, Southern, and PNW.  See this for some suggestions on how to fix this.

The 55 & Over 6.0 women continued the trend of two 4-0 teams in MOValley and Midwest, then a 5-way tie at 3-1.  Northern had the best court record, but then SoCal and NorCal were both 9-3 on courts and SoCal got the spot having lost fewer sets.

The 55 & Over 6.0 men is an odd one as yet again there were two 4-0 teams in Eastern and NorCal, then a 4-way tie at 3-1 with Northern and SoCal listed as in 4th due to better court records than Midwest and PNW, but SoCal is not listed in the semis draw!  Instead Midwest is listed.  Looking at SoCal's matches, I see they defaulted a court every match (and still were in 4th!) which Nationals tries to avoid, so I have to think something happened due to that.

The 55 & Over 8.0 women also had two 4-0 teams!  Here it was Texas and Midwest, then Florida and Middle States were 3-1 with better court records than SoCal and Southern.

The 55 & Over 8.0 men broke the trend and had three 4-0 teams in Southern, SoCal, and Florida.  Four teams were tied at 3-1 for one spot, and Mid-Atlantic got it over NorCal despite both being 3-1 / 8-4 / 18-10.  This tie-breaker came down to games lost where Mid-Atlantic was better.

Congratulations to all the teams, good luck on Sunday

Well, it happened - An undefeated team misses the semis at USTA League Nationals!

Ever since the new format for USTA League Nationals came out, I've written about the possibility of more than four undefeated teams leading to a team without a loss missing out on the semis and being sent home.  It very nearly happened two weeks ago, an upset in the last match prevented it, and it has nearly happened several times at prior year's Nationals.

And in fact it has happened at a "National" event in the past, it was just 55 & Over Mixed 7.0 in April of 2022 at what is technically an "Invitational", but it uses the same format of Nationals so it effectively is a Nationals.  At that event, Eastern was 4-0 and tied on courts with two teams ahead of them, but lost more sets so lost the tie-breaker.

Well, it happened again, and this time at "real" Nationals, the 40 & Over 3.0 men's event.

I wrote in my simulation of the event that there was perhaps the largest chance of it occurring we'd seen, 16%, and after one day my updated simulation said the chances were now 34% as the five 2-0 teams didn't play each other on Saturday, so if they all just won, it would happen.

Each team won their 3rd match and each one faced an 0-3 or 1-2 team in their final match, so there was a strong probability it would happen at this point and it did.

The final standings were:

Middle States - 4-0 / 15-1
NorCal - 4-0 / 14-2
Southern - 4-0 / 14-2
PNW - 4-0 / 13-3
Texas - 4-0 / 12-4

The tie-breakers were clear, the 4-0 teams that were 13-3 or better on courts advanced, which mean Texas who won each of their matches 3-1 would not go the semis.

There are a few unfortunate things here.  The main one is that the format allows for a team to go to Nationals and not lose a team match, but not advance.  That has to be tough for the team and I hope they knew it was a possibility and this wasn't a surprise.

But another is that the criteria used to determine which team doesn't advance isn't exactly equitable.  Yes, Texas had the worst individual court record of the five teams, but the format used for Nationals doesn't have teams play the same opponents, and it is even possible that the teams tied at 4-0 don't play any common opponents.

This means one team could have a really tough schedule and eke by going 4-0 while another has a really easy schedule on their way to 4-0.  The team with the tough schedule will likely have more close wins and a worse individual court record, and as a result fare worse in the tie-breaker and not advance.

In this case, Texas played 1-3 Southwest, 2-2 Intermountain, 1-3 New England, and 1-3 Midwest, a combined 5-11.

PNW just ahead of them played 1-3 New England, 3-1 Caribbean, 2-2 Florida, and 1-3 Eastern, a combined 7-9, perhaps a tougher schedule.

But Southern got 0-4 Hawaii, 1-3 Midwest, 0-4 SoCal, and 1-3 Southwest, a combined 2-14!  This is clearly an easier schedule than Texas and likely contributed to Southern's individual court record being 14-2 to Texas' 12-4.

And NorCal got 0-4 SoCal, 2-2 Florida, 0-4 MOvalley, and 0-4 Hawaii, also a combined 2-14, a very weak schedule.

Middle States opponents were 4-12, so a bit tougher than Southern's and NorCal's, but not exactly tough.

My preview highlighted the schedule strengths to be:

• Middle States - 3.05
• NorCal - 3.05
• Southern - 3.08
• PNW - 3.05
• Texas - 3.07

So NorCal, Middle States, and PNW had easier schedules than Texas.

If we look at who actually played, the played schedule strengths were:

• Middle States - 2.99
• NorCal - 2.99
• Southern - 3.03
• PNW - 3.05
• Texas - 3..05

Here Texas had the toughest schedule, NorCal and Middle States the easiest.  So there is something to the theory that Texas may have missed out on the semis simply because they had the toughest schedule.

This makes it especially tough for a team to lose out by one court when they had one of the two toughest schedules and the other teams they were in a tie with had easier schedule.

With a random round-robin schedule, it is hard to create similar schedules, but I'm not sure any attempt is made to make more of an equitable schedule and perhaps there should be.

To be fair, I've written about this for years and I have to hope everyone involved knew of this possibility going in, so everyone knew the rules and the possibility of this and what they may need to do to win the tie-breaker.  If so, them is the rules everyone is playing by so you have to accept it.

Stay tuned, I'll be posting my suggestions on how to fix this soon.  But what do you think?  Is it a problem that a 4-0 team can miss out on the semis?  Are the unequal schedules an issue?  Or everyone knows the rules going in so it is what it is?

Update: See my suggestions on how to avoid this happening again.

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 4 Day 1 Observations

Day 1 of week 4 of USTA League Nationals is finally over, several 7pm matches finally just finished up shortly after 10pm.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men have six 2-0 teams and only two of those play each other, Hawaii and Middle States, so five could finish 2-0.  But the updated simulation says that isn't likely, just 2%.  The teams most likely to advance are Southern, Middle States, Florida, and NorCal with SoCal, Mid-Atlantic, and Southwest lurking, but if Hawaii can pull the upset, they'll be right there.

The 4.0 women have five 2-0 teams and the simulation says no chance of all five staying unblemished, and only a 1% chance of four doing so.  We are likely to have a big tie at 3-1 with Texas, Southern, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic most likely to advance, but SoCal and New England will be right there.

Moving on to the 40 & Over division, the 3.0 men have five 2-0 teams and none of them play each other so all five getting to 4-0 is possible, and the updated simulation says the chances are a very doable 34%!  Those teams would be NorCal, Middle States, Southern, Texas, and PNW and all five have a 61% chance or better to make the semis.  Something has to give, and it may be the tie-breakers used.  And with this being 40 & Over with 4 courts, we could be deciding winners on tight tie-breakers to boot.

The 3.0 women have five 2-0 teams but no chance of them all remaining that way, in fact just a 2% chance of four 4-0 teams, so we'll have a tie at 3-1 in all likelihood.  The simulation says the teams most likely to advance are SoCal, Texas, PNW, and NorCal with Caribbean and Missouri Valley lurking.

On to the first 55 & Over events, the 6.0 men have just four 4-0 teams and the simulation says even just three is likely, so a 3-1 tie-breaker is in the offing.  Right now, NorCal, Eastern, and Southern are favorites, the last spot a very tight race between Missouri Valley, SoCal, and Intermountain.

The 6.0 women have six 2-0 teams and the simulation says a 5% chance of five them remaining so.  SoCal, NorCal, Missouri Valley, and Northern are the favorites, Midwest the most likely to break up the party.

The 8.0 men also have six 2-0 teams, and while five could finish 4-0, the chances are less than 1%.  Southern, SoCal, and New England are favorites, Florida, Midwest, and Texas vying for the last spot.

The 8.0 women have just four 2-0 teams and it is unlikely they remain all perfect (4% chance) with Florida, Intermountain, Midwest, and Texas most likely to advance.

Good luck to all the teams on Saturday!

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 3 Recap

Week three of 2023 USTA League Nationals is complete.  Here is a recap.

The 18 & Over 3.0 women saw NorCal beat PNW and SoCal beat Eastern, both by 4-1 scores, with NorCal winning the California battle 5-0.  NorCal was the overwhelming favorite in the simulation and they came through, and could have a double bump up or two.

The 18 & over 3.0 men, Southwest lost to Eastern 4-1 and NorCal lost to Texas 3-2, and then Texas won the final 4-1.  Texas was one of the favorites, and with a host of self-rates won it all.  It isn't uncommon to have a lot of self-rates at the 3.0 level, but all but one of the players who played at Nationals was a self-rate and many will be clear bump ups.

The 40 & Over 4.5 women saw Northern beat Texas 3-1 and Intermountain beat Middle States 4-0 before Northern won the final 4-0.  Northern was a contender and came through with four players appealing down from 5.0 and another just bumped down.

The 40 & Over 4.5 men saw Florida and Texas each advance 3-1 over Eastern and Southern, then Florida "won" the final 2-2 when they were tied on sets and managed to win 2 more games.  This was perhaps the closest final we've seen.  Florida was one of the favorites and won it with five players rostered who were 5.0s last year.

Congratulations to the new Nationals winners.

What ties did we have for week 3 of 2023 USTA League Nationals? Another 8-way 3-1 tie!

The round-robin for week 3 of 2023 USTA League Nationals is complete and we have four sets of semi-finalists.

The 18 & Over 3.0 women are still going as I write this three 7:00 pm matches are not recorded yet, and that could affect things as two 2-1 teams are playing and both could get to 3-1 and be in the tie for a playoff spot.  Right now just one 4-0 team, NorCal, and then SoCal and PNW at 3-1 appear to have spots locked up, but Intermountain in the fourth spot right now could be passed.  That is tough for Intermountain as they beat PNW head-to-head but are a court back on the tie-breaker.  I will update this as it finishes up.

Update: Eastern won their match 5-0 to pass Intermountain for the last spot.  Caribbean could still get into a tie though.

The 18 & Over 3.0 men ended up with two 4-0 teams, Southwest and NorCal, and then a 5-way tie at 3-1 for the last two spots.  Texas, Eastern, and Caribbean were all 16-4 on courts but Caribbean lost one more set than the others, so they miss out along with SoCal and MoValley who were 3 or more courts back on that tie-breaker.

The 40 & Over 4.5 women had the big tie for the weekend.  Eight (!) teams were all 3-1 and only four could advance.  Northern and Middle States were 13-3 on courts and got two spots, and then Intermountain and Texas were 11-5 and got the next two leaving out Mid-Atlantic (10-6), New England and MoValley (9-7 each), and Florida (6-10).  Florida even being 3-1 is an accomplishment with three 2-2 "wins" and a 0-4 loss for their record!  This is tough for Mid-Atlantic to miss out as they beat Intermountain head-to-head (albeit a 2-2 win) and MoValley beat Texas head-to-head (albeit 2-2 as well).  Should head-to-head come first at Nationals?

The 40 & Over 4.5 men had two 4-0 teams in Eastern and Texas and then a 6-way tie for the last two spots.  Southern (13-3) and Florida (12-4) were ahead of the rest on court record and took the spots.  This is tough for New England at 3-1 who beat Southern head-to-head (albeit 2-2).

So there you have it.

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 3 Day 1 Observations

The first day of week 3 of 2023 USTA League Nationals is in the books, here is a recap.

The 40 & Over 4.5 men has six 2-0 teams, and only two of them play each other, so five remaining unbeaten is possible, but the updated simulation says it is unlikely.  The four teams most likely to advance are Texas, Southern, Florida, and Eastern.

The 40 & Over 4.5 women is where the first team match tie happened for 2023, Eastern and SoCal splitting the four matches 2-2, each having a win in a super tie-break to have the teams tie on sets 5-5, and then they tied on games 37-37.  New England gets the win because they won court 1 doubles, and that contributed to their 2-0 record so far.  Note their other win was also 2-2, but they won one more set than their opponent.  Close!

And being 2-0, New England joins Missouri Valley, Intermountain, Texas, and Mid-Atlantic as unbeaten teams.  But several of these play each other, so no chance of five 4-0 teams.  In fact, teams with one loss have a great chance of advancing still, e.g. Northern, Middle States, and SoCal.

The 18 & Over 3.0 men and women have a few late matches still going, so this doesn't reflect a full day 1, but the 3.0 men have a 15% chance four 4-0 teams, and three of them likely.  NorCal, Southwest, SoCal, and Caribbean likely to advance.

The 3.0 women have even more matches still going, so things can certainly change, but they also have almost no shot of even four 4-0 teams.  NorCal and Florida should advance, with Intermountain, PNW, SoCal, and Missouri Valley vying for the last two spots.

It should be exciting on Saturday!

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 1 and 2 Recap

The first two weeks of Nationals are complete, and here is a recap of the action.

Week one had the 2.5 women saw Caribbean beat Florida and Eastern beat NorCal, both by 2-1 scores, to meet in the final where Eastern took the 2-1 win.

The 3.5 men had Texas beat Caribbean in one semi and SoCal beat Florida in the other.  The final saw Texas beat SoCal to complete the first leg of the 18/40 double.

The women's 3.5 saw Caribbean beat Intermountain and Midwest beat Southern  with Caribbean winning the final.

The 5.0 men had Southwest beat SoCal in one semi while NorCal beat Southern.  In the final, NorCal won the title.

The 5.0 women had Mid-Atlantic beat Florida and SoCal beat Texas in the other semi.  SoCal won the final.

Week two had the 3.5s back in the 40 & Over variant.

The women's 3.5 had SoCal beating Southern, while Intermountain got the 2-2 win over Texas.  The final saw another 2-2 win, SoCal taking the title.

The men very nearly had five 4-0 teams, but ended up with four of them, and Texas beat Middle States while Midwest beat New England.  The final saw Texas wrap up the back half of the 18/40 double.

The 18 & Over 4.5 was also played in week 2.

The women had Midwest take out New England while SoCal beat Florida, and Midwest came through in the final.

The men had Pacific Northwest beat NorCal and their opponent in the final was Southern who beat Midwest to get there.  In the final Southern won.

Congratulations to all the new National Champions!