Results from the fifth weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals - How did the predictions do?

The fifth weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals is complete, and it is time for the summary and check on how the predictions did.

The 55 & Over 6.0 and 9.0 were played in Orlando and at the 6.0 level for the women, SoCal, Southwest, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic made the semis.  Three of those teams were in my projected top-5 and all four were in my top-7.  SoCal and Florida both won 2-1 to make it to the final with SoCal winning 2-1, and they were the top pick to win it all in the simulation.

The 6.0 men had Southern, Midwest, Middle States, and SoCal make the semis, two in my top-4 and all four in my top-8.  SoCal and Midwest both won their semis 2-1 and Midwest took the final. 

At 9.0, the women's flight saw Southern, Florida, Eastern, and Mid-Atlantic make the semis, all four in my simulation's top-5.  Southern and Florida made the final where Florida won 2-1 to take the title.

The 9.0 men had Southern, SoCal, Middle States, and Intermountain advance to the semis, all four in my simulation's top-6.  Southern and SoCal won their semis and then SoCal won the final.

18 & Over Mixed got going in Arizona with the 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 levels playing.

The 6.0 level had Intermountain, SoCal, Texas, and Southern make the semis, all four of those in my top-7.  Intermountain and SoCal, the two in my top-7, won their semis with Intermountain taking the title.

The 8.0 level had SoCal, Intermountain, Hawaii, and NorCal advance to the semis, all in my top-4!  NorCal and Hawaii won their semis and NorCal took the title.

The 10.0 level saw New England, SoCal, NorCal, and Eastern make the semis, all four in my top-5.  Eastern and NorCal won their semis with Eastern taking the title.

Congratulations to this weekend's champs.

A loss for PNW USTA is a gain for USTA National

If you are a regular reader of my blog, you know I live in the Seattle area and thus play in the Pacific Northwest section of the USTA.  Playing in the PNW, I've had the opportunity to interact with local and section USTA staff including Adam Hutchinson who over the years has grown to be responsible for effectively all competition, Adults and Juniors, in the PNW.  I worked on a regulations change proposal with Adam and he has been a great resource for other questions and, in my opinion and despite occasionally not agreeing on everything, has done a great job with league play in my section.

I learned yesterday that, unfortunately, Adam is leaving the PNW section, but fortunately, he is staying with the USTA and moving to National to be responsible for adult competition including league and tournament play.

Adam has been an advocate for growing the game, and PNW is one of the few sections to have had USTA League participation grow recently, team count was up 8% from 2014 to 2019 and player count up 5%, despite the general trend the other direction across all of USTA League play, player count down almost 10% over the same period.  So while I'm sorry to see him leave PNW, I'm encouraged that National is getting someone with a proven record of running leagues and tournaments in an area that has shown growth.

Good luck Adam and don't forget PNW way off in the other corner of the country!

Another big weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals starts tomorrow

The 2021 edition of USTA League Nationals has been ongoing this month and we enter the fifth weekend with a pretty big schedule.  While it is only at two venues, there are multiple levels being played at each so a lot of tennis will be played and five champions will be crowned.

The 55 & Over Nationals continue in Orlando with the last of the division's levels, 6.0 and 9.0, being played.  While in Surprise the 18 & Over Mixed begins with each of the 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 levels being contested.

Good luck to all playing this weekend!

Results from the fourth weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals - How did the predictions do?

 The fourth weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals is complete, and it is time for the summary and check on how the predictions did.

The 55 & Over 8.0 was played in Orlando and for the women, Florida, MoValley, Middle States, and SoCal made the semis.  Three of those teams were in my projected top-7.  Florida and Middle States played in the final with Florida winning 3-0, and they were the second pick to win it all in the simulation.

The men had Southern, Hawaii, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic making the semis.  The winners of the semis were SoCal and Southern, with SoCal winning the final 2-1, and SoCal was the predicted winner of my simulation.

The 40 & Over 3.0 was played in Surprise, AZ and for the women, Florida, PNW, Midwest, and Eastern made the semis, all undefeated, all four of these in my projected top-5.  The other team in my top-5, Intermountain, finished 5th so the predictions had all of the top-5.  The semis had Eastern and PNW winning, with PNW winning it all.

The men had PNW, Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Florida in the semis, all undefeated, two of these being in the projected top-4, two being a surprise.  Florida and Eastern won their semis and Eastern won it all.

Congratulations to this weekend's champs.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.0 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the fourth weekend of Nationals, and the 40 & Over 3.0 level is being played in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 3.0 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 15
5+ undefeated: 0%
4 undefeated: <1%
Tie for 4th: 82%
Size of tie: 4 - 30%, 5 - 24%, 3 - 21%, in theory could be 12!
Sets tie-breaker: 26%, 2 teams 67%, 3 teams 27%
Easiest schedule: 3.03
Toughest schedule: 3.10
Likely semi-finalists: Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, Eastern
Contenders: Middle States, Southwest, Texas, Midwest

There are likely a few 4-0 teams and 3-1 should be required to make the semis.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

2021 USTA League Nationals continues this weekend

The 2021 edition of USTA League Nationals just wrapped up week three which  means week four is on the horizon.  It isn't going to be nearly as busy, but week three was the busiest with four events going on simultaneously.

This coming weekend finds the last 40 & Over event being played in Surprise, AZ while the 55 & Over continues in Orlando with the 8.0 level being played there.

Stay tuned for some predictions from my simulations and other info as the week progresses.

How is the 4-court format working for 2021 40 & Over Nationals? How are the ties being handled?

The USTA changed the 40 & Over division to a four court format for 2020, but with no Nationals last year, this year's Nationals was the first chance for it to be used.  The big issue is with four courts, there is a clear possibility, if not significant probability, that matches will end in 2-2 ties.  If that happens, who wins?

I wrote about how it all works a couple weeks ago, but now with most of the 40 & Over events complete, we can take a look at how things have played out.

So far, there have been 202 team matches played at 40 & Over Nationals, and of these, 64 have ended tied 2-2 on courts.  Of these, 38 had a winner declared based on who lost the fewest sets.  That leaves 26 matches going to the next tie-breaker, loser of the fewest games where 24 were decided.  That leaves two matched tied on all the criteria, which means the winner is the team that won court 1 doubles.

Note, there were eight other matches that were within a game or two of being full ties and having to go to the court 1 doubles winner tie-breaker.

First, regular readers of my blog know I've been critical of the tie-breakers the USTA uses for standings at Nationals where sets and games lost are used.  Let me say that in the case of a head-to-head match, the tie-breakers are not "flawed" and are in fact objective and not omitting information that should be used.

Note however that when the USTA first made the change to four courts, they did not have a provision to determine a winner if tied on games lost, and had to add using the winner of court 1 doubles after the fact and after a number of league matches ended in complete ties.

That said, in my opinion, it isn't terribly satisfying to have a match determined not by who wins the most courts, but instead by inspecting finer grained statistics.  One of the beauties of tennis and its scoring system is that winning a match doesn't require winning the most games or points, and winning a match in a super tie-break is a win just like a lopsided straight-sets win is.  But when there are an even number of courts and 2-2 ties can happen, it forces the use of these tie-breakers fundamentally changing the strategy of a team match.  A captain now has to worry about not just winning courts, but instead how the courts are won as there is a chance that will be used to determine the winner.

Now, change isn't necessarily bad.  One might argue that this format and use of tie-breakers discourages sacrificing a weaker player/pair against a strong pair, since a lopsided loss could hurt in the tie-breakers, and that is a good thing.  In a way, this gives the advantage to the deeper team and reduces the changes the "little guy" can pull an upset.  If you want the "better" team to win more of the time, this change is probably a good thing.

I still contend it was a mistake to go to a four court format, for this "2-2 tie" reason but others as well, but after a couple of years of it being used and one Nationals being nearly complete, what do you think?