New chart for showing projected records

I had an aha moment today with an idea of how to visually display the projected record my computer has for NFL teams.  For each team, I calculate the chances of each possible record, and then list the most likely record as the projected record along with the chance of finishing one game better or worse.

But that doesn't tell the whole story.  If you graph an individual teams possible projected records, you get something of a bell curve with the most likely record in the middle.  But it would be a pain to have 32 different charts to have to look at, so I've come up with a way to display all for a given conference on a single chart.

It is a little overwhelming at first, but take a look at this and let me know what you think.

What this is showing is a segment for each team for each possible win total indicating the likelihood of that record.  The size of the segment indicates a higher likelihood.

So for example, Atlanta in blue has a small chance of going 15-1 and a smaller chance of 10-6, the most likely record in between being 13-3.  Then Chicago is in red, the 49ers in orange/yellow, etc.

I used a stack bar chart to be able to fit it all on a single chart so it is a little complex, but I think it is somewhat useful.  Let me know what you think.

Oh, and the above is showing the current projected records after the Sunday night game.

Will we have a BCS title game between undefeated teams? Or can the SEC find their way back in?

With Alabama's loss, we are down to 3 undefeated teams vying for participating in the BCS title game; Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame.  There are only a few games left, so there is a good chance 2 will stay that way, but what are the exact chances of that occurring?

The 3 teams in question have the following chances of finishing perfect:

• Oregon - 81.7%
• Kansas State - 78.7%
• Notre Dame - 37.8%

It is safe to assume that any 2 undefeated results in them facing each other.  It is also probably safe to assume that if Oregon and K-State do it, Notre Dame gets left out.

So, there is a 64.3% chance of Oregon and Kansas meeting as undefeated teams.  But if one of them falters, Notre Dame could fill in.  Running the different permutations results in a 75.7% chance of some combination of these teams facing each other as undefeated teams.

If you look at that number, there is a good gap between it and 100%.  So what happens then?  It is probable that should the SEC champ finish with 1-loss, they would be the choice if 2 of the aforementioned teams have a loss.  So what are the chances of a 1-loss SEC champ?

Alabama has the best chance at 70.4%, but Georgia has a 27.5% chance too, and should Georgia falter and let Florida in the title game, they have a 20% chance.  If we put these permutations together, we have a 99.2% chance of a 1-loss SEC champ.

That means that there is still a 24.1% chance of an SEC team making it to the BCS title game.  Trust me, stranger things have happened.

College Football Week 11 Season Projections - Only 2 projected to be undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 11 are now available.  These projections now include projected conference championship games.

And then there were 2!  With Alabama's loss, and Notre Dame rating dropping a bit, just Oregon and Kansas State are projected to finish the season undefeated.  And both teams are definitely projected to do so at 82% and 79%.  This puts the chances of both occurring at 64% so a very good chance we have a match up of undefeated teams in the BCS Championship game.

Notre Dame still has a chance at a perfect season at 36%, but a 1-loss season is more likely at 64% due to having to visit USC.

Ohio State actually has a better shot at an undefeated season at 38%, but the computer still says 11-1 is more likely at 51%.

The teams with one or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Oregon	13-0	81.7	0.0	17.2
Kansas St	12-0	78.7	0.0	20.0
Ohio State	11-1	50.6	37.8	11.6
Notre Dame	11-1	63.5	35.9	0.6
Alabama	11-1	70.4	0.0	29.5
Florida	10-1	57.9	0.0	42.1
Northern Illinois	12-1	49.1	0.0	42.8

Analyzing the 11/11/12 AP Poll - Alabama drops to #3 but ahead of Notre Dame on one ballot

Here is week 11 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 11 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

With Alabama losing, there are some changes.  Oregon is up to #1 and receives only 1st and 2nd place votes.  Kansas State at #2 receives 1st thru 3rd place votes, and Notre Dame gets a 1st place vote but also two 4th place votes.  One voter has Alabama ahead of them, and one has Ohio State.  Note my computer agrees Notre Dame is too high, but voters don't always vote like they should :)

Florida is the first team that has varying opinions being votes everywhere from 4th to 18th.  Oregon State also has a bit of a range from 12th to 25th.

College Football Week 11 Ratings and Rankings - Oregon remains #1, Alabama only drops to #3

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

This week's #1 is the same in Oregon, but there are some changes behind them.  Kansas State moves to up #2 replacing Alabama, but the Crimson Tide, while losing over 4 ratings points, only falls to #3 because of the big lead in ratings points they had.  Oklahoma was supposed to beat Baylor by more than 8 at home and as a result drops 2 spots to #6 allowing Florida, despite losing ratings points, and Texas A&M, to move ahead of them.

Notre Dame, who my computer has never really liked, has a closer than expected game, even with the lower expectations, with Boston College and loses ratings points and falls to #8.

The BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings have some changes too with Notre Dame falling from #1 to #3 simply because they played a weak opponent.  This is a clear example of how the rules the BCS has for the computers aren't exactly fair as regardless of the score, Notre Dame was in a lose lose situation by having to play a weak opponent.  The result is K-State is up to #1 and even Florida moves ahead of ND to #2 because their close win, the margin of victory doesn't count with this algorithm, was against a stronger opponent than Notre Dame's, didn't hurt them as much.

Oregon does move up to #4 in the BCS algorithm ahead of Alabama based on the loss.  Oregon will be helped in coming weeks by finally playing some stronger opponents.  And thanks to Alabama losing, may not be in the position of being left out of the BCS picture like they were last week.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	97.139	10-0	71.338	+0, -0.437
2	Kansas St	92.822	10-0	73.146	+1, -3.018
3	Alabama	91.660	9-1	75.471	-1, -4.802
4	Florida	87.967	9-1	76.876	+1, -1.936
5	Texas A&M	87.778	8-2	74.756	+3, +0.785
6	Oklahoma	87.050	7-2	72.725	-2, -3.019
7	LSU	86.836	8-2	73.713	+0, -0.398
8	Notre Dame	86.158	10-0	73.481	-2, -2.523
9	Southern Cal	86.011	7-3	74.919	+3, +0.966
10	Georgia	85.732	9-1	72.622	+0, -0.987
11	South Carolina	85.332	8-2	74.303	+0, -1.075
12	Oregon St	85.221	7-2	78.358	-3, -1.499
13	Stanford	83.287	8-2	75.258	+2, +0.077
14	Oklahoma St	82.727	6-3	70.954	+3, -0.267
15	Florida St	82.697	9-1	62.768	-2, -1.875
16	Texas	82.638	8-2	74.111	+0, -0.417
17	Ohio State	82.357	10-0	68.183	-3, -1.455
18	Clemson	81.889	9-1	66.844	+0, -0.866
19	Utah St	81.706	8-2	66.659	+1, -0.626
20	Arizona	81.374	6-4	75.385	+2, -0.683
21	Nebraska	80.288	8-2	70.513	+3, -0.471
22	UCLA	79.737	8-2	72.259	+1, -1.667
23	Arizona St	79.610	5-5	75.516	-2, -2.699
24	Wisconsin	79.572	7-3	70.351	+5, +0.962
25	Texas Tech	79.535	7-3	72.615	-6, -2.959

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports for Teams

I've been doing Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports for individuals, but have had a few requests to do them for teams too.  If you have a team or group you want reports for, contact me and I can give a healthy discount over purchasing the reports individually.

NFL Week 9 Ratings and Rankings

The ratings after week 9 are now posted and listed below as well.

Houston is stays #1 but Chicago moves to #2 ahead of Atlanta.  Green Bay also makes a move up to #4.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	89.140	7-1	79.813	+0, -0.611
2	Chicago	87.934	7-1	79.769	+2, +0.729
3	Atlanta	87.441	8-0	79.061	-1, -0.516
4	Green Bay	87.283	6-3	81.780	+4, +0.501
5	Denver	87.138	5-3	82.419	+2, +0.147
6	San Francisco	87.116	6-2	81.969	-3, -0.112
7	New England	87.082	5-3	81.383	-1, +0.075
8	NY Giants	85.652	6-3	80.690	-3, -1.384
9	Seattle	84.348	5-4	83.232	+1, +0.895
10	Pittsburgh	83.566	5-3	80.356	+1, +0.925
11	Dallas	82.361	3-5	85.278	+2, +0.439
12	Miami	82.207	4-4	80.806	-3, -1.447
13	Baltimore	82.121	6-2	78.979	-1, +0.172
14	Tampa Bay	82.023	4-4	79.316	+0, +1.013
15	Detroit	81.215	4-4	81.353	+4, +1.093
16	Carolina	81.056	2-6	83.585	+6, +2.037
17	NY Jets	80.478	3-5	82.511	+0, -0.266
18	Minnesota	80.435	5-4	79.627	-3, -0.505
19	St Louis	80.205	3-5	82.872	-1, +0.003
20	San Diego	79.730	4-4	77.420	+1, +0.209
21	Washington	79.574	3-6	82.214	-5, -1.255
22	New Orleans	79.343	3-5	80.448	+3, +1.593
23	Arizona	79.335	4-5	82.133	-3, -0.602
24	Indianapolis	77.764	5-3	79.405	+2, +0.568
25	Cincinnati	77.200	3-5	79.714	-2, -0.812
26	Buffalo	77.005	3-5	81.061	+2, -0.014
27	Philadelphia	76.519	3-5	81.664	-3, -1.431
28	Oakland	75.848	3-5	80.774	-1, -1.288
29	Cleveland	74.636	2-7	79.146	+0, -1.018
30	Tennessee	74.439	3-6	82.319	+1, -0.050
31	Jacksonville	73.831	1-7	82.103	-1, -1.594
32	Kansas City	70.259	1-7	80.405	+0, -0.312