Atlanta at NY Giants 2012 NFL Playoff Preview -

Atlanta plays at the NY Giants on 1/8 in a wildcard playoff game.

NY Giants are ranked #12 by the computer with a 9-7 record and a rating of 82.613 against a schedule strength of 82.357. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down, their worst game being against Washington and best game being at Philadelphia. They are 8-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-7-1 picking their games against the spread and 6-10 picking winners in their games.



Atlanta is ranked #8 by the computer with a 10-6 record and a rating of 84.062 against a schedule strength of 81.360. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a little down early then improved, their worst game being at Chicago and best game being at Detroit. They are 7-8-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 13-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees as follows:


2 NY_Giants-->Green_Bay-->Atlanta
2 NY_Giants-->New_Orleans-->Atlanta
2 NY_Giants-->New_Orleans-->Atlanta
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->Atlanta
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->Atlanta
2 NY_Giants-->Seattle-->Atlanta


The spread is the Giants by 3 and the computer agrees but b less picking them by 1.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Atlanta +3.0 over *x NY Giants 1.6 1.4 0.553 0.550

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Detroit at New Orleans 2012 Playoff Preview - New Orleans to win, Detroit to cover

New Orleans plays at Detroit on 1/7 in a wildcard playoff game.

New Orleans is ranked #3 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 88.518 against a schedule strength of 80.212. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down early but finished very strong, their worst game being at St Louis and best game being against Atlanta. They are 12-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-11 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.



Detroit is ranked #7 by the computer with a 10-6 record and a rating of 84.577 against a schedule strength of 82.269. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite up and down but finished on an upward trend, their worst game being at Chicago and best game being against San Diego. They are 8-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 11-5 picking their games against the spread and 11-5 picking winners in their games.



The teams played 5 weeks ago the Saints winning 31-17 at home and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

2 New_Orleans-->Atlanta-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Atlanta-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Carolina-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Carolina-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Chicago-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Chicago-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Green_Bay-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Green_Bay-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Minnesota-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Minnesota-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->Detroit

The spread is New Orleans by 10.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 6.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Detroit +10.5 over *x New Orleans 6.9 3.6 0.670 0.589

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Cincinnati at Houston 2012 Playoff Preview - Houston to win and cover

Houston plays at Cincinnati on 1/7 in a wildcard playoff game.

Houston is ranked #10 by the computer with a 10-6 record and a rating of 83.207 against a schedule strength of 80.183. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good most of the season, but finished on a downer, their worst game being against Carolina and best game being at Tennessee. They are 10-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



Cincinnati is ranked #14 by the computer with a 9-7 record and a rating of 81.977 against a schedule strength of 80.875. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, not as up in the second half of the season, their worst game being at Pittsburgh and best game being at Seattle. They are 9-6-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



The teams played 4 weeks ago Houston winning 20-19 on the road, are separated by 2 degrees:

2 Houston-->Baltimore-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Baltimore-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Cincinnati

The spread is Houston by 3 and the computer agrees picking them by 4.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xHouston -3.0 over . Cincinnati 4.2 1.2 0.638 0.541

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011/2012 College Bowl Games: An updated look at conference performance thus far

I've been keeping track of how each conference has performed in the bowl games, but not simply looking at their record in the games, instead looking deeper at what the record "should" be compared to the actual record.  And I've also added how each conference is doing against the spread.

The rationale for this is that the actual record alone doesn't tell the whole story.  If a conference is having a down year and/or gets some matchups that aren't favorable, you'd expect a poor record so even a 0.500 record may be an indication the conference did well or at least better than expected.  Thus comparing the actual with expected record is useful, as is looking at how a conference does against the spread, as that tells you if the teams did better/worse than Vegas and the public bettors expected.

Here is the up to date table through the Sugar Bowl:

Conference	Vegas	Computer	Most Likely	Thru 1/2	ATS
SEC	7-0	7-0	5-2	4-2	3-3
Big-12	6-2	7-1	6-2	6-1	6-1
Sun Belt	2-1	1-2	1-2	1-1	1-1
Mtn West	3-2	3-2	3-2	2-3	2-3
ACC	4-4	2-6	3-5	2-5	3-4
Independents	1-1	1-1	1-1	1-1	0-1-1
MAC	2-3	4-1	3-2	3-1	2-2
C-USA	2-3	3-2	3-2	3-1	3-0-1
Big-East	2-3	1-4	2-3	2-1	2-1
WAC	1-2	1-2	1-2	0-3	1-2
B1G	3-7	1-9	4-6	4-6	4-6
Pac-12	1-6	3-4	3-4	2-5	2-5

From this we can see that the SEC and Big-12 were supposed to do the best, and they have, but the SEC is actually behind where they should be.  Vegas and my computer had them favored in every game with my computer projecting a most likely record of 5-2, and with one game left to play they need to win it to just get to that 5-2 mark.  Note that I'm not including the BCS championship game as two SEC teams are facing each other.  The SEC is also just 3-3 against the spread, so performing about where the public betting said they would.

The Big-12 has arguably done the best, on track for the expected 6-2 or 7-1 but a great 6-1 against the spread.

A couple big conferences that didn't have a good outlook were the Big Ten and Pac-12.  The Big Ten has another game to play and will finish right around the expecte 3-7 or 4-6, but they haven't done well against the spread going only 3-6.  The Pac-12 similarly finished right between the expected 1-6 or 3-4 at 2-5, but also did poorly against the spread going 2-5.

The bowl games are often a chance for the smaller conferences to make a statement, but most haven't, the exception being Conference USA which is 3-1 overall, but a healthy 3-0-1 against the spread.  The Mountain West is only 2-3 in each category and the WAC 0-3 and 1-2.  The MAC has done decent but my computer expected them to.

2012 AT&T Cotton Bowl Preview - Arkansas to win and Kansas State to cover

The AT&T Cotton Bowl will take place on 1/6 pitting Kansas State against Arkansas. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Kansas State is ranked #19 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 77.484 against a schedule strength of 71.788. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent except for 2 games, their worst game being against Eastern Kentucky and best game being at Oklahoma State. They are 6-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-4 picking winners in their games.



Arkansas is ranked #5 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 83.926 against a schedule strength of 71.100. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very good with just a few down games, their worst game being against Troy and best game being against Tennessee. They are 4-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Texas A&M and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Kansas_St-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Baylor-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Eastern_Kentucky-->Missouri_St-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Iowa_St-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Kansas-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Kent_St-->Alabama-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Missouri-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Oklahoma_St-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Oklahoma-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Texas_Tech-->New_Mexico-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Texas_Tech-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Texas-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas

Against Texas A&M, Kansas State won 53-50 at home and Arkansas won 42-38 on the road.

The spread is Arkansas by 7.5 and the computer agrees but by less, picking them by 6.4. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Kansas State +7.5 over *. Arkansas 6.4 1.1 0.726 0.539

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

College Football Week 19 Preview Ratings and Rankings

I normally post updated college football ratings each Sunday to include all the games through the previous day, and I posted the week 18 ratings a few days ago, but with a bunch of key bowl games played yesterday I updated the rating through the Fiesta Bowl and the top-25 is below.

It is interesting to see some of the changes after the New Years Day, errr January 2nd, games.  There are no changes in position until #8, but then there is a fair amount.

Stanford moves up a spot despite losing, in large part because they were expected to lose so their rating was about where it was supposed to be.  They move up a spot because Wisconsin and the rest of the Big Ten had a bad day.  Wisconsin lost, but they were supposed to so that isn't why they dropped, instead it was the rest of the Big Ten teams except for Michigan State losing, and badly in a few cases, that pulled Wisconsin and the rest of the Big Ten down a bit with Michigan dropped 0.5 points and 3 spots despite not playing yet, Michigan State dropping 0.1 points and a spot despite winning, Nebraska dropping 1.4 points and 3 spots in a bad loss, and Penn State (not in the top-25) dropping 1.6 points and 6 spots after their bad loss.

The beneficiary in large part was the SEC, even the idle teams having their ratings improve 0.3+ points, but esepcially South Carolina, as well as Oregon and Houston, although Oregon's gap to #3 Oklahoma State was too large for it to change their ranking.

How close is Oklahoma State to #2 now?  Still not very close, their loss to Iowa State just a far worse result than Alabama's loss to LSU.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	LSU	96.197	13-0	72.703	+0, +0.361
2	Alabama	92.432	11-1	71.615	+0, +0.298
3	Oklahoma St	87.900	12-1	73.629	+0, +0.124
4	Oregon	85.714	12-2	70.454	+0, +0.601
5	Arkansas	84.475	10-2	71.429	+0, +0.549
6	Boise St	83.927	12-1	65.714	+0, +0.012
7	Oklahoma	83.582	10-3	73.636	+0, +0.039
8	Stanford	82.317	11-2	69.974	+1, +0.074
9	Wisconsin	81.913	11-3	67.580	-1, -1.098
10	South Carolina	80.735	11-2	70.854	+3, +1.469
11	Southern Cal	79.664	10-2	70.207	+0, +0.100
12	Georgia	79.574	10-4	71.905	-2, -0.175
13	Baylor	79.140	10-3	72.039	+1, +0.053
14	Texas A&M	79.108	7-6	73.042	+1, +0.060
15	Michigan	79.043	10-2	68.063	-3, -0.505
16	Missouri	78.203	8-5	71.770	+0, +0.054
17	Houston	78.008	13-1	62.283	+4, +1.639
18	Michigan St	77.855	11-3	68.496	-1, -0.140
19	TCU	77.589	11-2	64.310	-1, +0.080
20	Kansas St	77.524	10-2	71.813	-1, +0.040
21	Florida St	76.485	9-4	65.798	+2, +0.176
22	Texas	76.484	8-5	73.335	-2, +0.061
23	Notre Dame	75.766	8-5	70.822	+1, -0.011
24	Southern Miss	74.962	12-2	62.857	+1, +0.433
25	Nebraska	74.887	9-4	70.317	-3, -1.429

Week 9 NCAA College Basketball Tournament Teams Projection

Here is the updated projected 68 NCAA tournament teams using my rankings.  My methodology, for now at least, is to take the highest ranked team from each of the 31 conferences and select them as the automatic qualifier, and then select the next 37 highest ranked teams.  As teams actually automatically qualify, they will be used instead.

The list is below, but will also be posted on the web-site each week.

With this list, we can take a look at the last 4 in, first 4 left out, and other observations.

Differences from last week are that Arizona, Missouri State, Norfolk State, and Vanderbilt replace Denver, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, and Oregon State.

The last 4 at large teams making this list are Arizona, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and Marshall.  The first 4 left out are Akron, Minnesota, Washington, and Illinois.

Stay tuned for more updates as the season progresses.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Syracuse*	88.056	15-0	70.033	+3, +0.959
2	Ohio State*	87.593	13-2	70.389	+1, +0.405
3	Kentucky*	86.856	13-1	69.520	+4, +0.701
4	Missouri*	86.358	13-0	65.339	-3, -1.309
5	Baylor	86.317	12-0	70.342	-3, -1.109
6	North Carolina*	86.194	13-2	70.482	+0, -0.435
7	Michigan St	85.340	13-2	70.906	+6, +1.471
8	Indiana	84.782	13-1	69.694	+1, -0.284
9	Duke	84.742	12-1	73.205	+6, +1.012
10	Florida	83.936	11-3	70.480	-2, -1.673
11	St Mary's CA*	83.750	11-2	70.713	+13, +1.397
12	Kansas St	83.669	11-1	69.192	+0, -0.299
13	Kansas	83.616	10-3	72.209	+4, +0.198
14	Georgetown DC	83.590	11-1	69.688	+4, +0.280
15	Murray St*	83.568	11-0	70.409	-1, -0.261
16	UNLV*	83.322	13-2	71.966	-6, -1.508
17	Wisconsin	83.140	12-3	69.682	-12, -3.854
18	St Louis U.*	82.525	11-2	68.393	+3, -0.224
19	Creighton*	82.100	11-2	71.167	+1, -0.765
20	Louisville	82.033	12-2	70.656	-4, -1.393
21	California*	81.604	12-3	70.037	+1, -1.095
22	Gonzaga	81.602	11-2	71.469	+10, +1.398
23	Wichita St	81.393	9-3	71.270	+0, -1.245
24	New Mexico	81.050	11-2	70.465	+22, +1.968
25	Virginia	80.831	12-1	64.966	+0, -1.050
26	Seton Hall	80.728	12-2	70.935	+7, +0.593
27	Alabama	80.585	10-3	71.878	+2, -0.208
28	Brigham Young	80.573	10-4	70.307	-2, -1.232
29	Ohio U.*	80.464	11-1	69.664	-10, -2.737
30	Connecticut	80.410	12-1	69.524	-3, -1.246
31	Marquette	80.302	12-2	70.507	-20, -4.356
32	Oklahoma	80.089	10-2	68.305	+3, -0.004
33	Memphis*	79.947	8-5	74.354	+7, +0.281
34	Long Beach St*	79.676	5-6	79.231	-4, -0.559
35	Harvard*	79.627	11-1	70.630	-4, -0.597
36	Virginia Tech	79.549	11-3	69.965	+16, +0.623
37	Texas	79.385	10-3	68.292	+6, -0.054
38	Michigan	79.350	11-2	68.829	+3, -0.265
39	Middle Tennessee St*	79.262	12-2	69.009	+0, -0.441
40	West Virginia	79.170	10-4	72.435	-2, -0.608
41	San Diego St	79.062	11-2	70.162	+7, +0.081
42	Mississippi St	78.984	13-2	68.184	+2, -0.242
43	Missouri St	78.964	8-5	74.177	+32, +3.079
44	St Joseph's PA	78.951	10-4	71.851	+9, +0.318
45	Purdue	78.834	12-3	68.871	+11, +0.538
46	Southern Miss	78.633	11-2	71.230	-9, -1.232
47	Belmont*	78.407	8-5	72.763	+3, -0.528
48	VA Commonwealth*	78.080	10-3	70.204	+11, +0.356
49	Stanford	77.959	12-2	67.456	+2, -0.968
50	Florida St	77.857	8-5	70.937	-14, -2.138
51	Temple	77.851	9-3	73.894	-4, -1.151
52	Marshall	77.838	8-4	72.195	-24, -3.597
53	Northwestern	77.718	11-3	71.159	-4, -1.253
54	Vanderbilt	77.634	9-4	70.838	+19, +1.735
55	Arizona	77.467	10-4	70.550	+11, +0.377
57	Wagner*	77.328	10-3	70.675	+8, +0.159
61	North Dakota St*	77.094	9-3	68.445	+6, +0.158
64	Iona*	76.908	10-3	71.899	-19, -2.239
72	Lehigh*	76.228	10-4	69.007	+4, +0.407
74	New Mexico St*	76.090	8-5	70.522	-20, -2.364
79	Lamar*	75.387	7-5	74.046	-11, -1.442
88	Cleveland St*	74.692	11-3	72.158	-1, -0.303
92	Davidson*	74.407	7-4	73.061	-3, -0.568
113	Weber St*	72.725	8-3	69.256	+9, +0.166
130	Charleston Southern*	71.734	6-4	69.836	-18, -1.401
135	Norfolk St*	71.504	9-4	70.373	-11, -0.939
193	Vermont*	68.462	6-8	69.194	-13, -0.763
250	Mississippi Valley St*	65.295	1-11	79.856	+14, +0.910