One week to the Super Bowl

With the Super Bowl one week away, it is time to start to take a closer look at the combatants and the match up.  Newsletter subscribers already received a detailed preview and that preview will be posted on the Playoffs Preview page shortly before kickoff for all to see.

While it has not been common to have the #1 seeds from each conference make it to the Super Bowl, it happened this year just as the computer predicted.  Now, it is easy to pick the #1 seeds to make it, but the computer had the Saints and Colts far and away the favorites at 59.7% and 32.7% chance of making it thus far.

So, they made it.  How do they match up?  Below are the performance charts for each team through the end of the regular season.  The charts including playoff games is in the full preview to be posted later.

Both teams were the clear #1 and #2 all season until they let up on the accelerator late in the year, although the Saints had a large enough cushion to stay #1 even with the 3 losses.  If you believe the real indication of the quality of the teams was what they had done in week 14 or 15, New Orleans should be the pick to win.  And even with both teams getting back in the swing of things in the playoffs, New Orleans as stayed #1 with Indianapolis now up to #2 in the current rankings.

So what does that mean the prediction is?  The computer is picking the Saints by 1.4 which obviously makes the pick against the spread the Saints plus the points.

Stay tuned for the full preview with more details on the web-site later!

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 1/24/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played yesterday.

In the NBA, Cleveland remains #1 and the Lakers #2 but there is jostling behind them with Utah, Orlando, and Denver moving up at Atlanta, Boston, and San Antonio's expense.  All these teams are close though so a loss or big win here and there can cause movement.

In College, Kansas moves to #1 as Duke's loss drops them to #2.  Texas' second loss drops them to #6 and Kentucky still isn't getting credit from the computer for being undefeated moving up only to #10.

And There Were Two - Colts vs Saints

We now know the Superbowl contestants and with form holding, which it rarely does, we have the top 2 teams from the regular season in each conference facing off. And while they weren't #1 and #2 coming in to this weekend (#1 and #5), they were every meaningful week of the season since week 5 and are once again in the week 20 rankings below.  As usual, the current rankings can always be found here.

The computer did pick the winners in both championship games, but had the wrong side of the spread in the Indy game with the Jets inability to score in the second half letting that margin grow too large and got a push in the New Orleans game where they simply let the Vikings have try after try to tie the score keeping that one too close.  That drops the post reason record to 5-4-1 against the spread but increases the picks on winners to 7-3.  See this page for details.

Look for a Superbowl preview soon, and as usual newsletter subscribers will get a detailed preview this week including some "what if" scenarios of what the prediction would be if Indy and NO hadn't shut things down.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	87.906	15-3	80.664	+0, -0.154
2	Indianapolis	86.548	16-2	80.619	+3, +0.663
3	Minnesota	85.969	13-5	79.763	+0, +0.062
4	Dallas	85.840	12-6	81.133	+0, -0.056
5	New England	85.586	10-7	82.233	+1, -0.048
6	NY Jets	85.462	11-8	82.582	-4, -0.585
7	San Diego	84.931	13-4	79.766	+0, -0.065
8	Baltimore	84.815	10-8	81.295	+0, +0.063
9	Green Bay	84.750	11-6	79.329	+0, +0.019
10	Philadelphia	84.119	11-6	81.362	+0, -0.047
11	Carolina	83.923	8-8	82.880	+0, -0.095
12	Atlanta	83.820	9-7	82.390	+0, -0.103
13	Houston	82.787	9-7	80.331	+0, +0.058
14	Pittsburgh	82.139	9-7	79.998	+0, -0.014
15	Arizona	81.847	11-7	79.724	+0, +0.052
16	San Francisco	81.324	8-8	79.202	+1, +0.060
17	Cincinnati	81.275	10-7	80.638	-1, -0.093
18	Miami	80.929	7-9	83.163	+0, -0.059
19	Tennessee	80.637	8-8	81.302	+0, +0.066
20	Buffalo	80.400	6-10	82.456	+0, -0.049
21	NY Giants	80.209	8-8	81.886	+0, -0.052
22	Denver	80.109	8-8	80.860	+0, -0.009
23	Chicago	78.455	7-9	80.051	+0, +0.010
24	Tampa Bay	77.621	3-13	83.317	+0, -0.104
25	Jacksonville	77.402	7-9	80.746	+0, +0.039
26	Washington	77.022	4-12	80.536	+0, -0.056
27	Cleveland	76.182	5-11	80.507	+0, -0.013
28	Kansas City	75.521	4-12	80.538	+0, -0.038
29	Oakland	74.563	5-11	81.311	+0, -0.060
30	Seattle	74.459	5-11	79.780	+0, +0.058
31	St Louis	70.285	1-15	80.393	+0, +0.072
32	Detroit	69.560	2-14	80.975	+0, +0.015

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 1/17/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played yesterday.

In the NBA, Cleveland remains #1 by a healthy margin over a new #2 in the Lakers.  The Lakers move up not so much because they had a great week but because Boston went 1-2 and fell.  The next 5 in San Antonio, Atlanta, Utah, Orlando, and Denver are very close behind, the 7 spots behind Cleveland all being covered by less than 1 rating point.

In College, Duke remains #1 by over 2 ratings points with Kansas and Texas very close behind.  Why isn't Texas, or even Kentucky rated higher given they are undefeated?  It is helpful to look at the performance charts for this, so here is Duke, Texas, and Kentucky for comparison.

While Duke has losses, they also have more highs than Texas or Kentucky.  Duke has 5 games scoring over 100 ratings points (Charlotte, Gonzaga, Clemson, Iowa St, and Wake Forest) while Texas has only 2 (Pitt and USC) and Kentucky just 1 (Florida).  And even in their 2 losses Duke scored 91 and 88 ratings points, while Texas has 4 wins that scored under 90 ratings points (Rice, Gardner-Webb, TAMU-Corpus Christi, and Texas A&M) and Kentucky has 8 such games.

In the end, the computer thinks Duke is better than Texas and Kentucky even though they have 2 losses and the others are undefeated.

NFL Divisional Round Rankings and Summary

Three of the games weren't terribly compelling, but the last one was, and in any case we are down to the final 4 teams with 3 expected to be there and one big surprise.

But should we really be surprised?  The computer had the Jets in the top-10 since week 14 and had them #6 coming in to this game less than 0.4 ratings points behind the Chargers.  This made them a clear pick plus the points and they pulled off the minor upset.

The result is that they move to #2 behind the Saints who continue to hold a pretty clear margin at #1.  Very close behind the Jets are the other combatants in next weeks games plus Dallas is still at #4 on the strength of their December finish and big wins over Philly.  Even though the Colts are #5, we know this is due to not playing starters the last 2 games and thus probably isn't representative of where they should really be rated.  Even so #2 thru #5 are less than 0.17 ratings points apart so not much between them.

The computer has done fairly well picking games in the playoffs going 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 picking winners.  See the 2010 NFL Playoffs Previews for more details on the picks and performance.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	88.060	14-3	80.612	+0, +0.599
2	NY Jets	86.047	11-7	82.209	+4, +0.611
3	Minnesota	85.907	13-4	79.103	+6, +1.173
4	Dallas	85.896	12-6	81.180	-2, -1.355
5	Indianapolis	85.885	15-2	80.514	+2, +0.932
6	New England	85.634	10-7	82.286	-1, +0.141
7	San Diego	84.996	13-4	79.828	-4, -0.793
8	Baltimore	84.752	10-8	81.244	-4, -0.783
9	Green Bay	84.731	11-6	79.315	-1, -0.091
10	Philadelphia	84.166	11-6	81.417	+0, -0.403
11	Carolina	84.018	8-8	82.977	+0, +0.136
12	Atlanta	83.923	9-7	82.490	+0, +0.048
13	Houston	82.729	9-7	80.276	+0, +0.208
14	Pittsburgh	82.153	9-7	80.007	+0, -0.122
15	Arizona	81.795	11-7	79.667	+0, -0.382
16	Cincinnati	81.368	10-7	80.703	+0, -0.001
17	San Francisco	81.264	8-8	79.130	+0, +0.066
18	Miami	80.988	7-9	83.230	+0, +0.210
19	Tennessee	80.571	8-8	81.243	+1, +0.138
20	Buffalo	80.449	6-10	82.523	+2, +0.234
21	NY Giants	80.261	8-8	81.938	-2, -0.217
22	Denver	80.118	8-8	80.859	-1, -0.300
23	Chicago	78.445	7-9	80.037	+0, +0.058
24	Tampa Bay	77.725	3-13	83.416	+0, +0.075
25	Jacksonville	77.363	7-9	80.682	+1, +0.167
26	Washington	77.078	4-12	80.589	-1, -0.292
27	Cleveland	76.195	5-11	80.517	+0, -0.120
28	Kansas City	75.559	4-12	80.572	+0, -0.301
29	Oakland	74.623	5-11	81.375	+0, -0.280
30	Seattle	74.401	5-11	79.709	+0, +0.058
31	St Louis	70.213	1-15	80.327	+0, +0.122
32	Detroit	69.545	2-14	80.965	+0, +0.021

Updated Superbowl Odds (1/10)

With 2 teams eliminated and 2 teams through, it is time to take a look at how the Superbowl odds have changed.

The Saints remain the team most likely to get to the Superbowl in large part due to the Eagles no longer being a possible opponent.  While they couldn't beat Dallas this year, Philly was rated fairly highly, certainly higher than Arizona.

Naturally the Jets and Cowboys improved as they are past the first game, and in fact they move ahead of Minnesota for winning, but not getting to, the Superbowl.  The computer is presently calling the Dallas at Minnesota game pretty much a pick'em right now as Dallas is rated higher.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
New Orleans	0.597	0.336
Indianapolis	0.327	0.178
San Diego	0.280	0.160
Dallas	0.237	0.133
NY Jets	0.189	0.108
Minnesota	0.209	0.099
New England	0.157	0.096
Green Bay	0.108	0.053
Baltimore	0.048	0.024
Arizona	0.057	0.022
Cincinnati	0.000	0.000
Philadelphia	0.000	0.000

Good Start to the Playoffs

The computer is off to a good start predicting playoff games going 2-0 picking winners and against the spread yesterday.  See the detailed picks/preview for the Jets/Bengals and Eagles/Cowboys for more info.  Also see the summary for the full playoffs here.

Today, the computer likes New England to cover and Green Bay to win, although the pick against the spread depends on what line you get.  The detailed preview for the Packers/Cardinals will go up shortly before game time.

Enjoy the games!