Midway point bowl game review

With just over half of the bowls now played, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how the computer has done and how the conferences have done against expectations thus far.  As a reminder, I posted a conference summary preview a few weeks ago and that is what I'll be comparing the records thus far against.

As far as the computer goes, through the Navy/Missouri game, it is 12-6 against the spread and 9-9 picking winners.  That probably sounds backwards, but from what I can tell all the experts are mostly under 0.500 picking winners this season and Vegas is only 7-11 so I consider the 9-9 very good.  Here are the details:

• Wyoming vs Fresno State - Picked Wyoming plus the points but didn't pick the upset.  1-0 and 0-1
• Rutgers vs Central Florida - Picked Rutgers minus the points and got it and the win.  2-0 and 1-1
• Southern Miss vs MTSU - Picked MTSU plus the points but not to win.  3-0 and 1-2
• BYU vs Oregon State - Picked OSU minus the points and missed on both.  3-1 and 1-3
• Utah vs California - Picked Utah in the upset and got it.  4-1 and 2-3
• SMU vs Nevada - Picked SMU plus the points but not the upset.  5-1 and 2-4
• Marshall vs Ohio U. - Picked Marshall plus the points but not the upset.  6-1 and 2-5
• UNC vs Pitt - Picked Pitt by 2.2 and they won by 2 nailing it.  7-1 and 3-5
• BC vs USC - Picked BC plus the points but USC to win.  7-2 and 4-5
• Clemson vs Kentucky - Picked UK plus the points but not quite enough points.  7-3 and 5-5
• TAMU vs Georgia - Picked TAMU plus the points and missed.  7-4 and 6-5
• Temple vs UCLA - Picked UCLA minus the points and got it.  8-4 and 7-5
• Miami vs Wisconsin - Picked Miami minus the points and missed.  8-5 and 7-6
• Bowling Green vs Idaho - Picked BG minus the points and missed. 8-6 and 7-7
• Nebraska vs Arizona - Picked Nebraska minus the points and got it.  9-6 and 8-7
• Air Force vs Houston - Picked AF plus the points but not the upset.  10-6 and 8-8
• Stanford vs Oklahoma - Picked Stanford plus the points and got it.  11-6 and 9-8
• Missouri vs Navy - Picked Navy plus the points but not the upset.  12-6 and 9-9

As far as the conferences go, here is what was predicted and how they've done thus far:

• SEC - 8-2 predicted and 1-1 thus far
• Big-12 - 4-4 and 2-2
• Pac-10 - 4-3 and 2-4
• Big-Televen - 1-6 and 1-0
• ACC - 4-3 and 1-3
• Big-East - 4-3 and 2-0
• C-USA - 2-4 and 2-3
• Mountain-West - 2-3 and 4-0
• MAC - 3-2 and 0-3
• WAC - 2-2 and 1-2
• Sun-Belt - 0-2 and 1-0
• Independent - 0-1 and 1-0

Some conferences still have a bunch of games to go, but the Pac-10 and ACC are a bit behind the predictions, the MAC is well behind and the Mountain West has made a statement thus far and if TCU can win as expected will be 3 games over the prediction.

And based on the strength of the Mountain West thus far, if I were to recalculate the ratings today TCU would actually move to #2 ahead of both Florida and Texas.  Other big movers since the bowls started include Boise State down 3 due to their past opponents doing poorly, Nebraska up 6 after their shutout, Miami down 5 after their loss and the ACC's poor showing thus far, BYU up 16 after their win and the Mountain West doing well, Stanford down 7 after their loss and the Pac-10 doing a little under expectations, and it goes on similar to that for the rest of the teams in the conferences mentioned.

Interesting stuff.

Week 9 NBA Ratings/Rankings

If you read my earlier entry, you saw I've started posting college basketball ratings and rankings, and as you might expect I'm doing it for the NBA too.

Here are the current ratings/rankings through the 27th of December.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Boston	94.498	23-6	85.081	+1, -0.030
2	Cleveland	94.052	24-8	86.474	+4, +2.264
3	LA Lakers	93.671	24-5	85.141	-2, -1.000
4	Atlanta	93.410	21-8	86.029	-1, -0.364
5	Orlando	92.691	22-8	86.458	-1, +0.043
6	Dallas	91.912	22-9	86.734	-1, +0.060
7	Denver	91.035	20-11	85.701	+1, -0.121
8	Portland	90.709	20-12	86.876	+3, +1.088
9	Phoenix	90.682	19-12	87.476	-2, -0.967
9	San Antonio	90.682	17-11	85.926	+1, +0.473
11	Houston	89.894	18-13	88.619	-2, -0.848
12	Oklahoma City	89.423	15-14	88.251	+1, +0.377
13	Utah	89.392	17-13	86.965	-1, -0.062
14	Miami	88.305	16-12	86.473	+0, +1.460
15	Toronto	85.456	15-17	87.275	+6, +0.960
16	Memphis	85.272	13-16	87.183	+2, +0.316
17	Charlotte	85.236	11-17	86.615	+0, +0.274
18	Milwaukee	85.054	12-16	85.857	-3, -0.965
19	Sacramento	84.609	13-16	86.239	+1, -0.172
20	New Orleans	84.307	13-15	87.142	-1, -0.505
21	Detroit	83.755	11-19	87.725	-5, -1.564
22	Washington	83.200	10-18	86.679	+2, +0.364
23	LA Clippers	83.090	13-17	86.260	-1, -0.373
24	New York	83.014	11-19	86.224	-1, -0.269
25	Chicago	82.190	11-17	87.617	+1, +0.063
26	Philadelphia	81.633	7-22	87.443	-1, -0.645
27	Golden State	81.625	8-21	87.284	+1, -0.045
28	Indiana	81.187	9-20	86.783	-1, -0.626
29	Minnesota	77.918	7-24	87.237	+0, +0.640
30	New Jersey	74.051	2-28	87.302	+0, -0.201

2009 Week 17 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 17 (games played thru 27-Dec).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Ten games down, 24 to go!  And with some upsets and surprises in the bowl games, there have been some changes in the ratings and rankings.

There is no change at the very top with Alabama and Florida staying #1 and #2, but behind them there is a swap with TCU moving ahead of Texas due to prior opponents Wyoming, BYU, Utah, SMU, and Clemson doing well in their games.  It really couldn't have gone much better for TCU in this regard.  Texas actually improved their rating a bit too as Wyoming was a prior opponent, but not enough to stay #3.

The computer has continued the outstanding start to the bowl season going 7-3 against the spread.  It did slow down a bit as it was 7-1 but missed the last two games narrowly.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this. See the bowl game previews posted thus far and subscribe if you want to get them e-mailed to you well in advance of the games.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	92.075	13-0	72.228	+0, -0.094
2	Florida	87.273	12-1	71.321	+0, -0.096
3	TCU	87.033	12-0	66.152	+1, +1.255
4	Texas	86.689	13-0	69.736	-1, +0.208
5	Virginia Tech	82.733	9-3	72.894	+0, +0.122
6	Arkansas	81.826	7-5	72.947	+1, -0.048
7	Oregon	81.508	10-2	71.725	-1, -0.944
8	Cincinnati	81.225	12-0	66.615	+0, -0.498
9	LSU	81.030	9-3	72.535	+1, -0.174
10	Boise St	80.733	13-0	61.603	-1, -0.713
11	Oklahoma	80.682	7-5	70.887	+0, +0.418
12	Georgia Tech	80.131	11-2	72.728	+0, +0.125
13	Miami FL	79.356	9-3	71.832	+0, +0.181
14	Texas Tech	79.249	8-4	68.242	+0, +0.274
15	Clemson	78.727	9-5	71.231	+3, +0.430
16	Nebraska	78.256	9-4	69.224	+3, +0.126
17	Ohio State	78.051	10-2	65.902	+0, -0.302
18	Mississippi	78.014	8-4	70.268	+2, -0.016
19	Pittsburgh	77.707	10-3	68.846	+2, -0.118
20	Tennessee	77.578	7-5	70.814	+2, -0.221
21	Stanford	77.436	8-4	69.712	-5, -1.072
22	Brigham Young	77.371	11-2	67.671	+12, +2.704
23	Auburn	77.360	7-5	72.930	+0, -0.150
24	Penn State	76.677	10-2	64.096	+1, -0.286
25	Arizona	76.391	8-4	71.089	-1, -1.005
26	Southern Cal	76.293	9-4	70.925	+0, -0.461
27	Utah	76.057	10-3	66.851	+8, +1.532
28	Oregon St	76.033	8-5	70.345	-13, -2.823
29	Oklahoma St	76.023	9-3	68.970	-2, +0.177
30	North Carolina	75.628	8-5	69.982	-2, +0.045
31	Georgia	75.281	7-5	73.886	-1, -0.147
32	West Virginia	75.231	9-3	69.558	+0, +0.083
33	South Carolina	75.163	7-5	73.735	-2, -0.046
34	Iowa	75.154	10-2	67.568	-5, -0.354
35	Connecticut	74.802	7-5	69.057	-2, -0.171
36	Mississippi St	74.444	5-7	73.566	+1, +0.010
37	Kentucky	74.020	7-6	70.272	-1, -0.494
38	Rutgers	73.048	9-4	62.564	+1, +0.003
39	Florida St	72.947	6-6	73.465	+1, +0.260
40	Houston	72.727	10-3	64.046	+8, +0.824
41	California	72.509	8-5	70.810	-3, -1.563
42	Texas A&M	72.475	6-6	69.962	+3, +0.165
43	Missouri	72.238	8-4	68.628	+0, -0.192
44	Central Michigan	72.166	11-2	60.640	-3, -0.431
45	Air Force	72.100	7-5	64.900	+6, +0.723
46	Boston College	71.837	8-5	69.152	-4, -0.683
47	Wisconsin	71.777	9-3	65.421	-1, -0.346
48	Wake Forest	71.546	5-7	71.072	+1, -0.027
49	Washington	71.330	5-7	71.773	-5, -1.076
50	Notre Dame	71.329	6-6	69.307	-3, -0.627
51	South Florida	71.108	7-5	67.235	+1, -0.020
52	East Carolina	70.953	9-4	67.101	+2, +0.809
53	UCLA	70.572	6-6	71.724	-3, -0.844
54	Navy	70.142	9-4	65.080	+1, +0.192
55	Michigan St	69.329	6-6	66.852	+1, -0.327
56	Troy	68.815	9-3	62.694	+2, +0.106
57	Kansas	68.718	5-7	69.736	+2, +0.203
58	Arizona St	68.405	4-8	68.791	-1, -1.009
59	Middle Tennessee St	68.023	10-3	60.745	+2, +0.174
60	Nevada	67.836	8-5	64.057	-7, -2.631
61	Virginia	67.794	3-9	73.414	+1, +0.073
62	Minnesota	67.585	6-6	69.359	-2, -0.319
63	Iowa St	67.553	6-6	66.766	+0, +0.020
64	Kansas St	67.488	6-6	67.622	+0, +0.013
65	Central Florida	67.240	8-5	65.674	+4, +0.561
66	Southern Miss	66.886	7-6	63.043	+7, +0.590
67	SMU	66.738	8-5	64.703	+16, +3.208
68	Fresno St	66.673	8-5	64.704	-3, -0.617
69	Temple	66.663	9-3	60.449	-2, -0.222
70	Baylor	66.612	4-8	71.176	+0, +0.051
71	Purdue	66.570	5-7	67.446	-5, -0.339
72	Duke	66.498	5-7	68.123	-1, +0.063
73	Northwestern	66.407	8-4	62.780	-5, -0.297
74	North Carolina St	66.232	5-7	67.353	+0, -0.022
75	Bowling Green	65.650	7-5	63.673	+1, -0.152
76	Ohio U.	65.633	9-5	62.404	-4, -0.728
77	Louisiana Tech	65.441	4-8	65.002	-2, -0.652
78	Marshall	65.094	7-6	66.464	+2, +1.267
79	Syracuse	64.956	4-8	68.726	-2, -0.126
80	Wyoming	64.296	7-6	68.311	+0, +0.469
81	Northern Illinois	64.221	7-5	58.537	-3, -0.359
82	Maryland	63.872	2-10	70.720	-3, -0.086
83	Colorado	63.859	3-9	70.523	-1, +0.102
84	Alabama-Birmingham	63.621	5-7	66.088	+3, +0.778
85	Vanderbilt	63.286	2-10	71.575	+1, +0.004
86	Illinois	63.083	3-9	68.209	-2, -0.316
87	Michigan	63.026	5-7	63.951	-2, -0.322
88	Louisville	62.859	4-8	68.585	+0, +0.108
89	UNLV	62.801	5-7	66.745	+0, +0.189
90	Tulsa	62.694	5-7	63.580	+4, +0.924
91	Buffalo	62.084	5-7	62.242	-1, -0.147
92	UTEP	61.859	4-8	63.623	+4, +0.833
93	Utah St	61.817	4-8	66.037	-2, -0.371
94	Indiana	61.778	4-8	65.610	-2, -0.263
95	Idaho	61.393	7-5	63.581	-2, -0.602
96	San Diego St	61.341	4-8	65.851	+1, +0.358
97	Hawaii	60.799	6-7	62.463	-2, -0.502
98	Colorado St	60.052	3-9	67.447	+0, +0.176
99	Florida Atlantic	58.799	5-7	62.110	+1, +0.176
100	Kent St	58.717	5-7	60.127	-1, -0.241
101	Louisiana-Monroe	58.057	6-6	61.356	+1, -0.026
102	Western Michigan	57.999	5-7	60.338	-1, -0.242
103	Toledo	57.262	5-7	61.994	+0, -0.203
104	Memphis	56.996	2-10	66.576	+0, +0.659
105	Arkansas St	55.649	4-8	59.152	+1, +0.089
106	Louisiana-Lafayette	55.643	6-6	60.787	-1, +0.071
107	Army	55.486	5-7	60.346	+0, +0.111
108	Ball St	54.450	2-10	62.075	+1, -0.201
109	Tulane	54.446	3-9	65.458	+2, +0.877
110	Washington St	54.371	1-11	72.445	-2, -0.423
111	Akron	53.617	3-9	61.999	-1, -0.268
112	Miami OH	53.269	1-11	66.968	+0, -0.287
113	Rice	53.188	2-10	67.415	+4, +0.758
114	New Mexico	53.124	1-11	68.829	+1, +0.385
115	North Texas	53.122	2-10	60.942	-2, +0.021
116	Florida Int'l	52.576	3-9	64.988	+0, +0.051
117	San Jose St	52.252	2-10	66.431	-3, -0.585
118	New Mexico St	50.476	3-10	63.434	+0, -0.344
119	Western Kentucky	46.095	0-12	61.818	+0, +0.073
120	Eastern Michigan	45.457	0-12	63.153	+0, -0.204

Week 7 College Basketball Ratings/Rankings

Yes, I am now tracking college basketball!  Presently just ratings/rankings are posted but I'm working on doing predictions and projections too and hope to have a newsletter soon.  Let me know what you'd be interested in seeing by leaving a comment.

As there are many more division I college basketball teams than I-A football teams, I won't list the full rankings on the blog but will just include the top-50 here.  See the full list on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Texas	99.115	11-0	77.527	+0, +0.352
2	Syracuse	98.203	12-0	74.595	+0, -0.397
3	Duke	96.775	9-1	78.763	+0, -0.759
4	Kansas	94.972	11-0	74.442	+0, +0.820
5	West Virginia	94.293	10-0	79.199	+0, +1.023
6	Kansas St	92.445	10-1	79.457	+0, -0.727
7	Purdue	91.911	11-0	74.864	+0, -0.028
8	Kentucky	90.258	13-0	76.170	+12, +1.531
9	Villanova	90.130	11-1	75.947	+3, -0.315
10	Georgetown DC	90.043	9-1	77.559	+16, +1.665
11	Temple	89.792	9-2	81.985	+3, +0.272
12	Minnesota	89.737	9-3	75.003	+1, +0.198
13	Mississippi	89.560	10-2	77.609	-2, -0.950
14	Clemson	89.478	11-2	76.763	+4, +0.645
15	Brigham Young	89.475	12-1	74.279	+14, +1.461
16	North Carolina	89.466	9-3	77.816	+21, +2.261
17	California	89.296	6-4	83.501	-7, -1.494
18	Mississippi St	89.238	10-2	75.737	+6, +0.759
19	Michigan St	89.079	9-3	77.793	-3, +0.041
20	Miami FL	88.791	11-1	72.443	-3, -0.046
21	Alabama-Birmingham	88.782	11-1	76.092	+9, +0.787
22	Ohio State	88.750	10-2	72.695	-7, -0.633
23	Connecticut	88.444	9-2	77.683	+2, +0.035
24	Memphis	88.329	8-2	72.433	-2, -0.280
25	St Mary's CA	88.326	10-2	79.064	-17, -3.026
26	New Mexico	88.236	12-1	77.150	-17, -2.567
27	Old Dominion	88.216	8-4	79.470	+24, +2.325
28	Wake Forest	87.841	8-2	76.797	+5, +0.021
29	Texas A&M	87.834	8-3	79.991	-10, -0.940
30	Washington	87.828	9-2	78.184	+5, +0.540
31	Missouri	87.769	9-3	74.257	+24, +2.377
32	Northwestern	87.589	10-1	74.723	+6, +0.525
33	Wisconsin	87.546	10-2	76.838	-6, -0.603
34	Gonzaga	87.130	7-3	80.935	+2, -0.108
35	Seton Hall	86.994	9-2	73.057	+7, +0.335
36	Marquette	86.992	9-3	73.283	+8, +0.502
37	Georgia Tech	86.788	9-2	74.774	+15, +0.907
38	Texas Tech	86.775	10-1	75.089	+7, +0.355
39	Butler	86.705	8-4	83.032	+1, -0.112
40	Tennessee	86.496	9-2	74.818	+16, +1.122
41	St John's NY	86.277	10-2	77.555	-18, -2.304
42	Rhode Island	86.262	9-1	77.083	+5, +0.028
43	Xavier OH	86.106	7-4	80.200	-2, -0.644
44	Dayton	86.057	9-2	78.512	+14, +0.821
45	Cincinnati	86.034	8-3	76.773	+4, +0.078
46	Pittsburgh	86.015	10-2	76.606	+24, +1.445
47	William & Mary	85.983	7-2	81.175	-4, -0.631
48	Northern Iowa	85.965	9-1	75.736	+5, +0.229
49	Cornell NY	85.901	9-2	81.253	+22, +1.528
50	Florida	85.869	8-3	75.241	-29, -2.762

Bowl Games Thus Far

The bowl games played thus far have been entertaining and there have been a few upsets, as evidenced by the computer and Vegas doing poorly picking winners, but I'm please to say that the computer is cleaning up against the spread going 7-1 thus far.

I've posted a summary for all the bowl game previews which are posted right around the start of each game, and if you want to get them sooner, subscribe to the newsletter and get the rest of the previews well in advance of the games, and also get all the details for the rest of the NFL season.

BC and USC have just started so take a look at the preview for that game here.

2009 Week 16 NFL Preview

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

With 2 weeks to go in the season, the playoff picture is coming in to focus, but there are a few teams still trying to make it in and others wanting to secure a top seed so we still have some interesting games this weekend.

The full predictions each week are at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-predictions but below is a discussion of some of the interesting games.  These games all picked by the current computer ratings located here.

The computer is coming off 3 great weeks going 11-5, 12-4, and 10-6 against the spread making the season total 133-86-5.  See full records by week here and if you are interested in additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, locks, performance charts, and more, see this where you can subscribe to a weekly newsletter.

In the highlighted games last week, the computer went 2-1 ATS.  Let's see how it does this week.


In what is possibly a loser out situation, certainly for the Steelers, Baltimore visits Pittsburgh with the home team favored by 3.  The computer is picking the upset here, narrowly, with Baltimore the pick by 0.6.

Two teams presently in the playoffs and wanting to stay there are Denver and Philly, and with the former visiting the latter, the Eagles have the better shot of staying there, Vegas picking them by 6.5 and the computer by 7.6.
Jacksonville is presently 7th in the AFC and does not control their own destiny, but if they were able to beat the Patriots this weekend, with Cleveland up last they have a great shot at 9-7, and with Baltimore and Denver having tough games this week, could be positioned well.  The trouble is New England is favored by 7.5 and my computer says that isn't near enough setting the margin at 11.5.



Enjoy the games.

Early Superbowl Predictions

With 2 weeks to go before we know the playoff teams for sure, we actually have a pretty good idea of who will make it and so I thought it would be interesting to plug the current projected playoff contenders into my Superbowl projections and see what popped out.

Using my computer's current projections the AFC teams are Indianaplis, San Diego, New England, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Denver, and in the NFC they are New Orleans, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona, Green Bay, and Dallas.  By going through all the permutations of who could meet who, the chance of each scenario occurring, and the chance a team wins the various games, my computer can calculate the chance that any given team gets to the Superbowl and also wins it.

With that as a lead in, let's just get to the results.  From the table below, using the week 15 ratings, it is no surprise Indianapolis and New Orleans are odds on favorites to get to the Superbowl, both at over a 50% chance.  As the Saints are rated slightly higher presently, they have a slightly better chance at getting there (57.5% to 54.2%) but interestingly the Colts have a better chance of winning the Superbowl.  This is because the rest of the NFC is a bit weaker in general than the AFC and the rest of those teams do have a 45.8% and 42.5% chance of being the opponent so that factors in.

It also isn't a surprise that the other division winners that would have home field advantage are the next 4.  Those teams that have to go on the road the first week have a pretty slim chance of getting to the Superbowl let alone winning it.

For what it's worth, last year at the end of the regular season Tennessee and Pittsburgh were virtually tied at 19.7% and 19.4% chance of winning and Arizona had only a 6% chance of even getting to the big game.  It is interesting that that is right about where Arizona is again this year!

I'll update these next week and then again at the end of the regular season.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
Indianapolis	0.542	0.319
New Orleans	0.575	0.238
San Diego	0.212	0.129
New England	0.146	0.084
Minnesota	0.180	0.067
Philadelphia	0.135	0.059
Baltimore	0.047	0.029
Cincinnati	0.033	0.023
Arizona	0.054	0.019
Denver	0.020	0.013
Green Bay	0.030	0.010
Dallas	0.026	0.010