2009 Week 2 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Week 2 of the NFL season had a number of great games and it resulted in some changes in the ratings.  The ratings are below but can always be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.

New Orleans built upon their big win from week 1 with another one in week 2 and moves to #1.  They are followed by 3 other 2-0 teams that all moved up with new New York teams in the top-4.  Still, there are only 2 games in the system so the ratings will still be a bit volatile for a week or 2 but some teams are starting to establish themselves.

The computer did ok picking games this week going 9-7 against the spread and 9-7 picking winners too.  That isn't that great but the Vegas line only went 7-9 picking winners.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	90.354	2-0	79.784	+11, +7.178
2	Baltimore	88.645	2-0	79.048	+1, +0.819
3	NY Jets	87.994	2-0	81.152	+6, +3.269
4	NY Giants	87.079	2-0	82.202	+1, +0.834
5	Philadelphia	86.995	1-1	84.158	-4, -3.748
6	San Francisco	86.070	2-0	81.585	+9, +4.303
7	Minnesota	85.986	2-0	75.848	+1, +0.664
8	Atlanta	85.636	2-0	74.989	-1, -0.078
9	Dallas	85.305	1-1	81.299	-3, -0.724
10	Pittsburgh	84.977	1-1	81.657	-8, -3.487
11	San Diego	83.601	1-1	83.295	-1, -0.775
12	Denver	83.356	2-0	76.035	+12, +3.978
13	Indianapolis	83.051	2-0	77.795	-2, -1.026
14	New England	82.649	1-1	85.216	-1, -0.484
15	Arizona	82.637	1-1	81.823	+4, +2.241
16	Tennessee	82.474	0-2	82.316	-12, -4.546
17	Buffalo	82.437	1-1	79.084	+3, +2.071
18	Chicago	80.841	1-1	82.276	+0, +0.135
19	Seattle	80.534	1-1	78.555	+3, +0.565
20	Houston	79.655	1-1	85.234	+6, +2.178
21	Green Bay	79.574	1-1	76.893	-7, -2.982
22	Washington	79.098	1-1	79.059	-6, -2.121
23	Cincinnati	78.946	1-1	81.465	+6, +3.564
24	Miami	78.014	0-2	84.343	-3, -2.137
25	Carolina	77.963	0-2	86.316	-8, -2.973
26	Oakland	77.945	1-1	79.048	+1, +0.826
27	Jacksonville	77.575	0-2	82.844	-4, -2.390
28	Tampa Bay	75.519	0-2	83.871	-3, -3.360
29	Kansas City	74.495	0-2	83.295	+1, -0.881
30	Cleveland	73.124	0-2	84.671	-2, -2.389
31	Detroit	72.572	0-2	88.170	+0, +1.601
32	St Louis	71.039	0-2	82.816	+0, +1.072

BCS Busters go Bust, Boise St., Houston, and TCU remain

After week 3's upsets and other entertaining games, it is time for an update to my earlier BCS Buster analysis.

My earlier analysis highlighted Boise State, TCU, BYU, Utah, and Buffalo.  Of those, 3 have gone bust while 2 have remained on track to find their way into a BCS bowl.  And as you'll see below, another team has joined the ranks of a BCS buster to replace the 3 that have fallen.

#2 Boise State
Boise State has moved up in the rankings and continues to be projected to finish 13-0 (76%) and is thus the most likely BCS buster.  Getting by Fresno State was one of the keys to accomplishing the feat and with that out of the way along with defeating Oregon, the toughest tests the rest of the way are #53 Tulsa and #58 Bowling Green.

#8 Houston
Houston joins the ranks of potential BCS busters with their 10 point win at Oklahoma State.  They are also projected to finish undefeated (49.7%) but still have #24 Texas Tech, #53 Tulsa, and #59 Mississippi State to deal with.  If they can get by Texas Tech this coming week it, it would confirm their high rating and could be smooth sailing for them the rest of the way, and they get them in Houston.

#12 TCU
TCU is hanging around that #10 spot and has improved their projected record to 11-1 (37.6%) with a 14% chance of going undefeated.  They will have a tough road with #18 Clemson, #31 Utah, #37 BYU, and #60 Air Force still on the schedule.

Chances are that one, but only one, will pull it off and due to the easy schedule it should be Boise State.

2009 Week 3 College Football Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 3 of the college football season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.

With the changes in the ratings this week, the projected records change as well.

Getting by Fresno State and improving their rating changes Boise State's projected record to 13-0.  And surprisingly the only other team joining them with an undefeated projection is Houston.  But with 28 teams still undefeated, there are a host of teams that could still pull it off.

The teams most likely to pull it off are those projected to have 1 loss and those are topped by Penn State with a 25.6% chance of doing so.  The current #1, Alabama has a 17.8% chance of being undefeated but is presently projected to have 1 loss.

Somewhat surprisingly Florida is not only no longer projected to go undefeated but is now projected to have 2 losses!  This is due to their rating dropping a bit after the close win over Tennessee but also future opponents LSU, Florida State, and Georgia all improving their rating.  Similarly, USC is now projected to have 3 losses and Cal is projected to be the best in the Pac-10 with just 2 losses.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Boise St	13-0	76.0	0.0	22.1
Houston	12-0	49.7	0.0	38.9
Penn State	11-1	40.6	25.6	25.1
Pittsburgh	11-1	37.2	18.1	29.3
Alabama	11-1	37.6	17.8	30.0
Cincinnati	11-1	37.8	16.0	31.0
Texas	11-1	36.6	15.8	31.9
TCU	11-1	37.6	14.0	33.4
Florida	10-2	32.1	29.2	19.2
Miami FL	10-2	33.9	26.1	22.4
California	10-2	31.6	24.7	22.5
Iowa	10-2	38.0	23.4	25.5
Northern Illinois	10-2	40.5	18.6	30.4
Navy	10-3	39.1	16.4	31.0
Kansas	9-3	31.4	28.6	18.3
Auburn	9-3	30.8	28.1	18.5
Missouri	9-3	32.2	28.0	19.0
Mississippi	9-3	29.5	27.2	18.6
North Carolina	9-3	31.6	27.1	19.9
Utah	9-3	38.8	22.4	26.1
Wisconsin	9-3	30.1	21.4	24.1
Ohio State	9-3	34.8	21.3	26.6
Brigham Young	9-3	31.2	18.3	27.4
Virginia Tech	9-3	29.6	17.1	27.5
LSU	9-3	31.6	17.0	29.8
Nebraska	9-3	31.4	16.6	29.5
Southern Cal	9-3	29.6	16.1	28.5
Clemson	9-3	31.2	15.1	30.6
Florida St	8-4	31.4	27.1	19.5
Middle Tennessee St	8-4	28.6	27.0	18.2
Connecticut	8-4	39.9	26.1	23.6
Oklahoma St	8-4	32.8	25.7	21.8
Colorado St	8-4	36.2	23.6	24.8
Ohio U.	8-4	33.9	23.3	24.4
Georgia Tech	8-4	30.8	23.2	23.0
Central Michigan	8-4	31.1	23.1	23.3
Michigan	8-4	32.0	22.3	24.6
Tulsa	8-4	33.6	22.1	25.1
Oregon	8-4	30.1	21.9	23.9
Oklahoma	8-4	29.0	19.2	25.6
Texas Tech	8-4	30.7	17.7	28.6
Georgia	8-4	29.0	17.0	27.8
Bowling Green	8-4	34.6	16.0	30.7
Hawaii	8-5	29.9	17.2	28.2
West Virginia	7-5	31.5	29.9	16.7
South Carolina	7-5	31.4	29.1	17.6
Fresno St	7-5	31.1	26.8	20.1
Southern Miss	7-5	30.5	25.9	20.2
Arizona	7-5	30.4	25.1	20.9
Marshall	7-5	27.7	25.1	19.1
UCLA	7-5	30.8	25.0	21.0
Buffalo	7-5	31.1	24.6	21.9
South Florida	7-5	28.7	19.5	25.2
Notre Dame	7-5	28.2	18.4	26.0
Air Force	7-5	28.3	17.8	26.5
Arizona St	7-5	25.5	16.8	25.3
Temple	6-6	32.2	30.3	17.2
Oregon St	6-6	31.6	27.9	18.7
UNLV	6-6	29.1	27.6	17.4
Rutgers	6-6	31.9	25.5	21.5
Minnesota	6-6	32.9	25.4	22.3
Kentucky	6-6	31.3	25.3	20.9
East Carolina	6-6	30.7	25.3	20.8
Louisiana-Lafayette	6-6	29.6	24.9	20.4
Texas A&M	6-6	28.1	23.0	21.1
Troy	6-6	27.0	22.7	20.7
North Texas	6-6	27.9	21.1	22.9
Boston College	6-6	27.5	21.0	22.8
Purdue	6-6	29.8	20.5	24.9
Stanford	6-6	28.0	19.6	24.5
Central Florida	6-6	34.6	17.2	30.6
Arkansas St	6-6	25.8	17.2	24.9
Western Michigan	6-6	30.1	17.1	28.3
Toledo	6-6	27.8	17.0	26.9
Army	5-7	35.8	29.2	18.1
Baylor	5-7	39.4	28.2	19.4
Wake Forest	5-7	30.1	27.9	17.3
Tennessee	5-7	28.8	26.5	18.1
Washington	5-7	29.6	25.9	19.1
Florida Int'l	5-7	27.6	25.1	19.0
Michigan St	5-7	29.6	24.4	20.7
North Carolina St	5-7	29.7	23.7	21.6
UTEP	5-7	30.3	20.1	25.8
Northwestern	5-7	35.8	19.6	30.0
Florida Atlantic	5-7	25.6	19.1	22.8
SMU	5-7	35.8	18.7	29.6
Louisiana Tech	5-7	31.2	18.0	28.9
Iowa St	5-7	36.3	17.5	31.2
Idaho	5-7	29.2	17.4	28.3
Mississippi St	5-7	28.3	17.0	28.2
Duke	5-7	31.1	16.9	30.0
Utah St	5-7	32.9	16.3	30.6
Indiana	4-8	40.8	29.5	18.3
Arkansas	4-8	31.7	27.2	19.0
Louisville	4-8	30.3	25.9	19.6
Louisiana-Monroe	4-8	27.7	24.9	18.7
Kansas St	4-8	39.0	23.8	25.6
Syracuse	4-8	40.6	22.4	28.2
Maryland	4-8	31.0	22.3	24.1
Nevada	4-8	28.0	22.1	22.0
Alabama-Birmingham	4-8	29.1	19.9	25.6
Illinois	4-8	29.4	19.8	25.8
San Jose St	4-8	29.7	19.5	26.2
San Diego St	4-8	40.6	17.5	31.1
Wyoming	3-9	32.3	29.0	17.3
Memphis	3-9	31.3	27.4	18.6
Akron	3-9	37.0	26.1	21.7
Vanderbilt	3-9	33.1	25.8	21.4
Kent St	3-9	37.4	22.6	27.1
Rice	3-9	29.8	18.1	28.1
Colorado	2-10	35.2	31.0	15.7
Eastern Michigan	2-10	35.0	25.4	22.8
Virginia	2-10	40.5	24.0	26.0
Tulane	2-10	31.9	18.6	29.8
New Mexico	2-10	38.1	15.9	37.2
Ball St	1-11	38.3	31.9	15.8
Western Kentucky	1-11	34.6	29.3	17.5
Washington St	1-11	82.6	16.5	0.0
New Mexico St	1-12	61.6	32.0	0.0
Miami OH	0-12	50.3	37.6	0.0

2009 Week 3 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Results

Ratings through week 3 (games played thru 19-Sep).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

With week 3 came some upsets, closer games than expected, and just plain more data for the computer and that results in a bunch of change as the computer also just about eliminates the effect of the pre-season ratings.

The new #1 is Alabama after a convincing win and they were also helped by Virginia Tech's win over Nebraska.  But they didn't so much jump to #1 as they benefited from previous top teams falling.  The biggest of those being a heavily favored USC losing at Washington and dropping all the way to #13.  And while Florida didn't lose, they too were heavily favored and won unimpressively dropping them to #4.  Texas also loses some ratings points but stays at #3.

Those moving up include Boise State after the free for all with Fresno State but also benefits from previous opponent Oregon beating Utah.  Cincinnati's win at Oregon State boosts them to #6 but Miami is the big mover jumping all the way to #7.  They benefited from prior opponent Florida State winning big at BYU as well which also helped jump them to #14.

The predictions did not have a good week going 23-39-1 against the spread but a much better 48-15 picking winners for the week so not all bad.  The Vegas line went 49-14 straight up for comparison.  A poor showing against the spread is not uncommon in the first 3 weeks of the season as the system begins to get enough games to work with so that one is out of the way now.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	88.262	3-0	68.559	+3, +0.840
2	Boise St	87.975	3-0	66.646	+6, +2.244
3	Texas	87.250	3-0	66.148	+0, -2.009
4	Florida	86.897	3-0	58.939	-3, -5.918
5	California	86.568	3-0	67.579	+0, +0.019
6	Cincinnati	86.000	3-0	64.380	+5, +1.800
7	Miami FL	85.660	2-0	81.165	+19, +6.256
8	Houston	85.403	2-0	63.088	-1, -0.715
9	Oklahoma	85.209	2-1	63.494	-3, -1.183
10	Kansas	84.235	3-0	62.075	+11, +3.586
11	Pittsburgh	84.121	3-0	66.104	+2, +1.306
12	TCU	83.527	2-0	63.004	-2, -1.240
13	Southern Cal	83.501	2-1	72.848	-11, -7.381
14	Florida St	83.429	2-1	75.078	+31, +8.261
15	Nebraska	83.038	2-1	68.466	+0, +0.490
16	Penn State	82.736	3-0	59.795	-7, -2.467
17	Mississippi	82.687	2-0	59.284	+0, +0.320
18	Clemson	82.351	2-1	72.529	+4, +2.169
19	Auburn	82.239	3-0	67.808	+16, +4.622
20	Iowa	82.090	3-0	73.098	+7, +2.916
21	Virginia Tech	81.590	2-1	77.653	+2, +1.475
22	North Carolina	81.368	3-0	67.420	+2, +1.781
23	Missouri	81.195	3-0	63.781	-4, -0.957
24	Texas Tech	81.062	2-1	66.569	-10, -1.664
25	Ohio State	80.868	2-1	73.095	-13, -2.234
26	LSU	80.812	3-0	66.525	+4, +2.149
27	Oklahoma St	80.005	2-1	71.329	-7, -1.149
28	Oregon	79.620	2-1	78.752	+0, +0.457
29	Connecticut	79.467	2-1	76.272	+17, +4.509
30	Georgia Tech	78.900	2-1	77.071	-1, -0.123
31	Utah	78.393	2-1	69.553	-13, -3.863
32	Georgia	78.384	2-1	76.884	+5, +1.026
33	South Carolina	78.132	2-1	72.096	+3, +0.709
34	Arizona	77.524	2-1	69.481	-9, -1.984
35	Navy	76.811	1-2	77.661	-1, -1.144
36	Wisconsin	76.463	3-0	66.693	+14, +3.089
37	Brigham Young	76.372	2-1	74.226	-21, -6.024
38	West Virginia	75.913	2-1	69.403	+2, -0.470
39	UCLA	75.662	3-0	65.547	+9, +2.000
40	South Florida	75.151	3-0	51.512	-2, -1.764
41	Notre Dame	75.137	2-1	69.040	+1, -0.614
42	Michigan	74.993	3-0	62.277	+7, +1.521
43	Northern Illinois	74.824	2-1	68.787	+22, +4.886
44	Wake Forest	74.711	2-1	65.427	-1, -0.765
45	Oregon St	74.674	2-1	68.124	-6, -2.139
46	Baylor	74.566	1-1	77.089	-13, -3.390
47	Arizona St	74.495	2-0	50.618	+8, +2.265
48	Stanford	74.416	2-1	65.635	+5, +1.997
49	Fresno St	73.391	1-2	72.281	+5, +1.133
50	Tennessee	73.203	1-2	70.166	+12, +2.291
51	Washington	72.925	2-1	72.514	+36, +7.576
52	Purdue	72.887	1-2	72.139	-11, -3.283
53	Tulsa	72.568	2-1	67.752	-21, -5.699
54	Michigan St	72.422	1-2	65.008	+6, +0.920
55	Boston College	72.266	2-1	59.695	-24, -6.359
56	North Carolina St	72.237	2-1	53.944	+0, +0.062
57	Minnesota	72.146	2-1	73.453	+0, +0.159
58	Bowling Green	71.830	1-2	72.912	-14, -3.606
59	Mississippi St	71.519	2-1	63.588	+38, +8.742
60	Air Force	71.348	2-1	58.578	+4, +0.951
61	Central Michigan	71.232	2-1	64.620	+0, +0.146
62	Kentucky	70.568	2-0	57.421	-15, -3.327
63	Duke	70.564	1-2	75.040	-5, -1.406
64	Rutgers	70.229	2-1	58.529	+4, +1.324
65	Colorado St	70.212	3-0	63.160	+6, +2.203
66	Ohio U.	69.882	2-1	68.161	+24, +5.333
67	Texas A&M	69.710	2-0	56.649	-16, -3.452
68	Hawaii	69.624	2-1	63.657	+4, +2.203
69	Arkansas	69.515	1-1	63.640	-17, -3.432
70	Middle Tennessee St	69.420	2-1	71.695	+9, +3.071
71	Maryland	68.656	1-2	74.010	-12, -2.914
72	Southern Miss	68.629	3-0	54.601	-5, -0.289
73	UNLV	68.197	2-1	62.217	-7, -1.380
74	Louisville	67.917	1-1	45.659	+42,+13.510
75	Marshall	67.660	2-1	71.478	+28, +5.385
76	Buffalo	67.531	1-2	72.208	-7, -1.185
77	Iowa St	67.068	2-1	62.537	+16, +3.323
78	East Carolina	67.059	1-2	73.848	-4, +0.112
79	Illinois	66.976	1-1	63.935	+7, +1.483
80	Kansas St	66.899	1-2	70.066	-10, -1.175
81	Troy	66.880	1-2	74.724	-6, -0.053
82	Virginia	66.337	0-3	73.512	-9, -1.024
83	Northwestern	65.765	2-1	55.329	-3, -0.519
84	Central Florida	65.553	2-1	64.534	+10, +1.828
85	Temple	65.494	0-2	76.136	-4, -0.571
86	Syracuse	65.442	1-2	72.549	-1, -0.157
87	Florida Int'l	65.290	0-2	82.246	-5, -0.771
88	Vanderbilt	65.187	1-2	63.971	-25, -5.392
89	Indiana	65.033	3-0	57.598	+20, +4.369
90	Louisiana Tech	64.992	1-2	69.209	+2, +0.928
91	Toledo	64.974	1-2	72.770	-3, -0.125
92	North Texas	64.798	1-2	73.666	+14, +3.558
93	Colorado	64.553	1-2	64.291	+15, +3.685
94	Louisiana-Lafayette	64.463	2-1	63.405	-11, -1.583
95	Utah St	64.289	0-2	77.051	-11, -1.633
96	Western Michigan	64.241	1-2	64.317	+6, +1.937
97	Arkansas St	64.143	1-1	51.606	-2, +0.497
98	UTEP	63.950	1-2	65.865	+2, +1.293
99	Army	62.829	2-1	61.290	-3, -0.264
100	Nevada	62.705	0-2	75.675	-9, -1.548
101	Florida Atlantic	62.666	0-2	83.585	-2, -0.036
102	Alabama-Birmingham	62.445	1-2	61.570	-13, -2.370
103	Idaho	62.229	2-1	61.432	+12, +5.859
104	San Jose St	61.749	0-3	79.770	-28, -5.159
105	SMU	61.632	2-1	60.714	-4, -0.829
106	Memphis	61.078	1-2	65.023	+6, +1.946
107	Wyoming	60.687	1-2	71.342	-30, -6.199
108	Ball St	59.852	0-3	63.681	+2, -0.453
109	Louisiana-Monroe	59.693	1-2	66.346	-11, -3.052
110	San Diego St	59.540	1-2	65.172	-6, -2.379
111	Rice	59.200	0-3	77.504	-4, -1.752
112	Akron	57.448	1-2	61.676	-34, -9.227
113	Washington St	57.444	1-2	66.557	+5, +3.427
114	Eastern Michigan	56.454	0-3	68.862	+0, -0.646
115	Kent St	55.875	1-2	60.990	-10, -5.655
116	New Mexico	55.009	0-3	70.209	-5, -4.994
117	Tulane	54.039	0-2	71.470	-4, -3.319
118	Western Kentucky	50.938	0-3	70.228	+1, -2.267
119	Miami OH	49.926	0-3	76.261	-2, -4.434
120	New Mexico St	48.830	1-2	54.810	+0, -0.478

2009 Week 2 NFL Predictions

Here are my computer's predictions for week 2 of the NFL season.  These are also posted here each week for easier reference.

With only 1 game in the system for each team, it is still early, but the computer went 9-6-1 against the spread last week so perhaps it is dialed in early.

The computer is picking 2 upsets this week.  The first is the Jets to beat New England where the line is New England by 4.  This pick is due to the game being at the Meadowlands, it would be the other way in New England, so the plea for a 12th/13th man could be the difference.

The other upset is Baltimore over San Diego where the line is San Diego by 3.5.  Now, the computer is picking Baltimore by only 0.4 so it isn't a terribly confident upset pick, but we'll see if the computers regard for Baltimore is well founded.

The Sunday night game should be a good one with Dallas favored by 3 over the Giants and the computer picking Dallas by 2.8.  Early bragging rights in the NFC East are up for grabs.

Favorite	Margin	Underdog
Favorite	Margin	Underdog
Philadelphia	10.6	New Orleans
NY Jets	4.6	New England
Tennessee	12.5	Houston
Washington	14.3	St Louis
San Francisco	4.8	Seattle
Baltimore	0.4	San Diego
Denver	6.9	Cleveland
Indianapolis	0.9	Miami
Minnesota	11.4	Detroit
Pittsburgh	4.8	Chicago
Kansas City	1.3	Oakland
Atlanta	7.8	Carolina
Green Bay	10.2	Cincinnati
Jacksonville	2.6	Arizona
Dallas	2.8	NY Giants
Buffalo	4.5	Tampa Bay

Updated 9/30: Corrected transcription errors.

College Week 3 Preview Highlights - Florida/Tennessee, Utah/Oregon, Georgia Tech/Miami, Wyoming/Colorado, Nebraska/Virginia Tech

With week 3 nearly upon us, it is time for a preview of some of the interesting games.  Full picks are here.

The weekend gets started with Georgia Tech visiting Miami tonight.  The computer picks Miami by 3.4 which is less than the 5 point line so the pick is Georgia Tech plus the points.  Note that this gap shrunk from the previous weeks ratings due to Florida's fairly narrow win over Jacksonville St hurting Miami and Georgia Tech's win over Clemson helping them.

It is always interesting to see what upsets the computer picks as they are pretty rare, and this week has one with Wyoming picked by 3 at Colorado when the line is Colorado by 7.  This is due largely to Colorado being 0-2 and losing over 5 rating points after last weeks loss to Toledo.

A good test for both teams and a chance to see how a couple of good teams from major conferences fare is Nebraska at Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech is favored by 5 but the computer picks them by just 0.6.  With Virginia Tech already losing out of conference to Alabama, ACC bragging rights could take a hit with another out of conference loss.

In a game that potentially has BCS bowl implications both for Utah and the Mountain West conference, Utah visits Oregon and the computer picks them by 0.1, a virtual tie prediction, while the line is Oregon by 4.5.  Folks will likely compare how Utah does against Oregon with how Boise State did when everything shakes out if these two teams can remain undefeated.

Last, there is what likely won't be a good game but will be talked about, Tennessee at Florida.  #1 Florida has rolled but not been tested at all in their first 2 games while Tennessee rolled in their first over Western Kentucky but was upset by UCLA.  The computer says Florida by 24.9 but the line may be over 30 so take the points ... as long as you don't think Urban Meyer will hold a grudge and RUTS :)

2009 Week 3 College Football Predictions

Here are my computer's predictions for week 3 of the college football season.  These also appear, and the current predictions always will, at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-predictions.  And see http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-prediction-performance for the historical performance of the picks.

These predictions are based on the week 2 ratings so there are 2 games for many team so they should begin to get a little more accurate.  A blog post with commentary on the interesting games should come tomorrow.

Favorite	Margin	Underdog
Favorite	Margin	Underdog
Kentucky	22.5	Louisville
LSU	15.6	Louisiana-Lafayette
Kansas	11.7	Duke
Southern Miss	4.6	Virginia
Colorado St	6.8	Nevada
Stanford	8.5	San Jose St
Texas A&M	10.2	Utah St
Wyoming	3.0	Colorado
North Carolina	15.6	East Carolina
Alabama	29.2	North Texas
Air Force	7.4	New Mexico
Mississippi	28.6	SE Louisiana St
Penn State	22.1	Temple
Rutgers	5.8	Florida Int'l
Syracuse	2.3	Northwestern
Western Michigan	10.9	Miami OH
Bowling Green	10.2	Marshall
Oklahoma St	23.2	Rice
Texas	9.5	Texas Tech
Arizona St	12.5	Louisiana-Monroe
TCU	29.2	Texas St-San Marcos
Cincinnati	4.4	Oregon St
Buffalo	2.0	Central Florida
Virginia Tech	0.6	Nebraska
Cal Poly SLO	0.8	Ohio U.
North Carolina St	21.7	Gardner-Webb
Central Arkansas	6.6	Western Kentucky
Notre Dame	7.2	Michigan St
Wisconsin	12.7	Wofford
Missouri	26.5	Furman
Florida	24.9	Tennessee
Michigan	19.4	Eastern Michigan
Akron	9.0	Indiana
Utah	0.1	Oregon
Oklahoma	11.1	Tulsa
Baylor	6.0	Connecticut
Central Michigan	35.1	Alcorn St
Kent St	0.8	Iowa St
Wake Forest	18.0	Elon
Boise St	10.5	Fresno St
Georgia	1.4	Arkansas
Purdue	9.2	Northern Illinois
Memphis	14.2	Tennessee-Martin
Vanderbilt	10.8	Mississippi St
Auburn	4.2	West Virginia
South Carolina	17.7	Florida Atlantic
UCLA	8.6	Kansas St
Ohio State	18.0	.Toledo
Iowa	2.7	Arizona
Clemson	4.6	Boston College
Southern Cal	22.5	Washington
Brigham Young	10.2	Florida St
UTEP	10.3	New Mexico St
Army	5.8	Ball St
Louisiana Tech	20.3	Nicholls St
California	11.6	Minnesota
Maryland	8.2	Middle Tennessee St
Miami FL	3.4	Georgia Tech
Troy	5.1	Alabama-Birmingham
South Florida	32.4	Charleston Southern
SMU	5.4	Washington St
Pittsburgh	7.9	Navy
San Diego St	2.5	Idaho

Updated 9/30: Corrected transcription errors.