Simulating 2023/2024 USTA League Tri-Level National Invitational - 3.5/4.0/4.5 Women

This weekend is the 2023/2024 Tri-Level Invitational and this year I'm giving my simulations a go.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

As I did for Nationals in the Fall, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.  Doing Tri-Level is new for me so we'll see how this goes.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 3.5/4.0/4.5 Women after doing the Men a bit ago.

Teams: 16 (Caribbean missing)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 9%

Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 81% / 4

Favorites: Mid-Atlantic, New England, Northern

Contenders: Middle States, Midwest, NorCal, SoCal, Texas

Fringe: Intermountain, Florida, Southern

One team is a favorite over the others and the only team forecast to go 4-0, but 3-1 and perhaps even 2-2 could make the semis as it is competitive behind the big favorite.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023/2024 USTA League Tri-Level National Invitational - 3.5/4.0/4.5 Men

This weekend is the 2023/2024 Tri-Level Invitational and this year I'm giving my simulations a go.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

As I did for Nationals in the Fall, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.  Doing Tri-Level is new for me so we'll see how this goes.

On to the projections from the simulation, starting with the 3.5/4.0/4.5 Men.

Note: This was updated an hour after originally posting with improvements to the simulation

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 15%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4

Favorites: Caribbean, Mid-Atlantic, MOValley, SoCal, Southern

Contenders: Middle States, Midwest, NorCal

Fringe: Texas

This looks fairly competitive with five teams having a >50% of making the semis, and three more contending for a spot.  And no team has a most likely record of 4-0 and six having 3-1 records most likely.  With just three courts a match, the chances of tie-breakers going to sets and games is pretty high.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

2023 Tri-Level Nationals is in San Diego this weekend!

USTA League Nationals are generally all held in October and November each year, but several of the Nationals events find themselves being played early in the year.  One of those is Tri-Level Nationals.

Technically, the event is called the Tom Fey Tri-Level Nat'l Invitational as for many years, it wasn't a USTA sponsored event but instead was run by Tom Fey, the Tennis Director at Indian Wells Tennis Garden for many years, and done as an Invitational.  Tom passed away far too soon a few years ago, and the event now bears his name, but now the USTA runs the it as a National Invitational.

The timing of the event remains the same, right around the time of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, but this year it is in San Diego.  Also, for many years the Invitational invited teams playing in the 3.5/4.0/4.5 division to play, but now the USTA holds the event for three different divisions for both genders, 3.0/3.5/4.0, 3.5/4.0/4.5, and 4.0/4.5/5.0.

The stature of the event has grown as a result with teams from all of the sections participating in at least one event.

• Women's 3.0/3.5/4.0 has 14 teams (Hawaii, Intermountain, and Midwest missing)
• Men's 3.0/3.5/4.0 has 14 teams (Hawaii, Caribbean, and Intermountain missing)
• Women's 3.5/4.0/4.5 has 16 teams (Caribbean missing)
• Men's 3.5/4.0/4.5 has the full 17 teams
• Women's 4.0/4.5/5.0 has 9 teams
• Men's 4.0/4.5/5.0 has 9 teams

That is a whopping 79 teams all playing over the weekend, which it appears necessitates some different scheduling to what we normally see for a Nationals.  Normally it is a Friday to Sunday event, but this weekend has:

• 3.5/4.0/4.5 division being played 3/7 thru 3/9
• 4.0/4.5/5.0 division being played 3/8 thru 3/10
• 3.0/3.5/4.0 division being played 3/9 thru 3/11

Even with the staggered schedule, it is too big for one venue so the event is being co-hosted by Barnes Tennis Center and Balboa Tennis Club.

Given all the rain in California this year, a weather check is in order and the start of the event looks in a little danger as there are thunderstorms forecast for the 6th with hail possible and rain showers lingering into the morning of the 7th, but after that all looks fine with cloudy to partly cloudy skies the rest of the days.

Good luck to all the teams!

Mid-Atlantic rules at 2022 USTA Tri-Level Invitational

The 2022 USTA Tri-Level National Invitational was held this weekend in the California desert, and Mid-Atlantic came through winning both the men's and women's events.

The event uses a similar format to Nationals with a single round-robin flight with each team playing four matches against random opponents and the top-4 teams in the standings advancing to the semis.

For the women, three teams, New England, Texas, and Mid-Atlantic, went 4-0 and Midwest was the best 3-1 team based on the best court record.  New England and Mid-Atlantic won their semis, and Mid-Atlantic took the final.

The men also had three teams, Mid-Atlantic, Florida, and Caribbean, go 4-0, and Midwest was the best 3-1 team to make the semis.  Mid-Atlantic and Florida won each semi 2-1, and Mid-Atlantic took the final 2-1.

Congratulations!

USTA League Tri-Level Invitational is on for 2021!

I did not see an announcement or e-mail from the USTA on this, and I otherwise missed seeing it, but I learned today that the Tri-Level Invitational, that has typically been held in March at Indian Wells Tennis Garden, is scheduled to be played in March 2021 in Surprise, AZ!  The event is officially called the Tri-Level National Invitational and will be held March 5-7.

This is good news in general, it is good to see events being held and a little bit of "life as normal" reappearing, but especially for those players and teams that have qualified.

The location change is due to a few factors I think, namely restrictions in California likely precluded holding the event there, but I also understand the Tournament Director who championed the event in the past is no longer at IWTG so even if it could have been held, it may not have been a priority.

So what else has changed other than the location?

First, selection of invitees likely has to be a little creative this time around.  With the 2020 shutdown of league play for several months, many sections likely didn't have Tri-Level leagues, or if they did may not have made it through to Sectionals, so who gets to go?  My guess, and what I believe PNW is doing, is to offer spots to the teams that qualified from 2019 and did not get to play at the event in 2020.  But check with your Section Coordinator for specifics.

Second, with no ATP/WTA event going on immediately before/after the Invitational, is there a perk?  It appears tentative plans are in place to have complementary tickets to a Spring Training baseball game as Surprise is the Spring Training home to the Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals.  That of course is dependent on MLB not delaying Spring Training and a variety of other factors I'm sure.

Third, the event is being run by the USTA.  In prior years, it was an invitational run by IWTG and just happened to invite Tri-Level winners from each section, but the event was not a USTA sanctioned event and results did not show up on a player's record.  As a USTA run event, I understand TennisLink will be used to manage the event much like Nationals, meaning results will show up on a player's record, and there is a chance the matches may count towards a player's rating.

Fourth, in the past, I understand that self-rated players were not eligible to play at the Invitational.  The USTA's rules however appear to allow for up to 3 self-rates, appeals, mixed-exclusive, or tournament-exclusive rated players per team to appeal to be allowed to play.  The appeal will be reviewed by the tournament. committee, but the player must also have played four matches in an advancing league during calendar year 2020.

I actually liked self-rates not being eligible for this event in the past, but can see the USTA's desire to be a little flexible.  Let's hope they are very strict with the appeal review and only allow players to play if their match results really do indicate they are at the right level.

Fifth, I don't know if this is a change or not, but the format will use the un-flighted round-robin used at recent Nationals where a team will play four matches against random opponents, with the top-4 teams in the standings using standard TennisLink tie-breakers, will advance to the semis.  Yes, this means the broken tie-breakers of sets lost and games lost continue to be used and may result in the wrong team advancing, or an undefeated team not advancing.

There is a long list of COVID related rules and guidelines in the tournament handbook, but it does not list players as having to wear masks, but spectators will be required to wear them.

It is great to see the event being held for 2021, good luck to all the teams headed there!