The dreaded 2-2 tie at USTA League Nationals - Texas loses a semi spot because of it

The second weekend of Nationals this year had 40 & Over events start with the men's and women's 3.5 and 4.0 levels playing.  Since 40 & Over uses a 4-court format (one singles and three doubles) this means there is the possibility of matches being tied at 2-2 and having to be decided by tie-breakers.

As a reminder, the tie-breaker is first to look at sets lost and whomever lost the fewest gets the team win.  If sets lost is tied, then it goes to games lost, and if that is tied, then whichever team won court 1 doubles wins the match.

Those that follow my blog know I'm a critic of the format for a number of reasons, but it is what we have so it has to be used.  The question is, how often does it occur, and how deep into the tie-breakers do things go?

Through the round-robin of the four events, 136 matches have been played and 34 (25%) have ended in 2-2 ties.  Of those 34, 11 have been tied on sets, and then of those 11, two have been tied on games.

One was Caribbean vs Midwest for the 3.5 men and Midwest won it due to their win on court 1 doubles.  Caribbean finished 1-3 and Midwest 3-1 so this didn't factor into who made the semis.  But one game different and Caribbean wins and they are both 2-2 and Caribbean moves ahead of Midwest in the standings.

The other was also a 3.5 men's match between Northern and Hawaii.  Here, Northern won court 1 doubles so they got the win.  Northern finished 2-2 and Hawaii 0-4, so it didn't affect the semi-finalists, but I'm sure Hawaii would have loved to have a win.

There were several other matches that were almost tied on games, and these were more meaningful.  There were four matches that went to the games lost tie-breaker and were within two games.

In one in the 4.0 women's event, Southern won a 2-2 match versus Northern by winning two more games.  Southern went 4-0, but even had they lost they still would have made the semis as the third seed instead of the second.

In the 4.0 men's event, Texas lost a 2-2 match to Eastern and finished 3-1 and in fifth place.  The lost the match on games lost having lost two more games than Eastern.  If they had managed to lose two fewer games, because they won court 1 doubles they would have won the match and been 4-0 and have been the #1 seed!  Further, Midwest who was fourth would have fallen to fifth and they were 4-0 so an undefeated team would have been sent home.

It seems awfully tough for this much to be decided by so little.  An even number of courts and having to break ties to determine a team match winner on minutiae like this seems a little arbitrary.  Yes, all the teams know the rules going in, but I'd much rather see a team match decided by court wins.  USTA, please bring back a five court format for 40 & Over!

Hopefully we don't see a bad scenario decide an even more important match tomorrow or over the next few weeks.

2022 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Day 2 Mid-day Update - Undefeated scenarios?

As we near the end of round-robin play for week 2 of this year's USTA League Nationals, some interesting story-lines are emerging.

The 40 & Over 4.0 men have five 3-0 teams with one match to go.  But Mid-Atlantic and Midwest play each other so just four can finish 4-0.  But don't rule out a 3-1 team from finding their way in.

The 18 & Over 3.5 men also have five undefeated teams, and they can all finish 4-0.  Two teams have an easy path, two of the others a reasonable path, and it would take just one upset to have five 4-0 teams and one sent home.

The other events don't have similar undefeated scenarios, but there could be some really close tie-breakers with 3-1 teams.  Stay tuned.

2022 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Day 1 Update

It is a busy weekend with three events (six if you count each gender individually) going on in Oklahoma City and Arizona.  Here is a quick summary how how day one went and what may happen today.

The 40 & Over 3.5 women have five 2-0 teams but the updated simulation says only a 2% chance of even four remaining so.  Texas, Intermountain, SoCal, and Eastern now most likely to advance with Middle States and Florida lurking.

The 40 & Over 3.5 men also have five 2-0 teams and here the updated simulation has just a 3% chance of four finishing that way.  Texas, Southern, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic are most likely to advance with Intermountain knocking on the door.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women also have five 2-0 teams, this updated simulation saying there is no chance of even four remaining so with a 40% chance of just three.  NorCal, Midwest, Southern, and Florida are most likely but Texas, Eastern, and Caribbean have a shot.

In a recurring theme, the 40 & Over 4.0 men have five at 2-0, this updated simulation says only very slim chance of four remaining so.  Southern, Texas, Mid-Atlantic, Hawaii, Midwest, and Middle States all in a dog-fight for four spots.

The 18 & Over 4.5 women have only three 2-0 teams so there will be some standings tie-breakers deciding semi-finalists.  The simulation now says three teams very likely to advance in Southern, Florida, and SoCal, with NorCal and Mid-Atlantic vying for the last spot.  PNW plays Southern and NorCal though so could make some noise.

Last, the 18 & Over 4.5 men have six 2-0 teams, and the simulation says there is a real, albeit just 2%, chance of five ending 4-0.  A nice and neat four 4-0 teams is more likely at 15%.  NorCal, Midwest, Southern, and Eastern are most likely to advance right now, but look out for Mid-Atlantic, SoCal, and Texas.

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its second week this weekend, the 40 & Over 4.0 event being held in Oklahoma City.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Men's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 17 teams at the event the USTA never creates a schedule that can avoid more than four undefeated teams, and there is no chance of six undefeated and a less than 1% chance of five undefeated.  There is also less than a 1% chance of four undefeated, so we may see a very competitive event.

There is an 88% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 4 at 28%, five is 27%, and three and six is 16%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 15-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 29% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 63% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 29% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary a bit, but very little compared to most Nationals, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 3.94 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.00.  This is about as balanced as it comes.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  Florida and Texas, are solid picks to advance, and Middle States, Northern, and Mid-Atlantic are likely vying for the last two spots, but Caribbean, Mid-West, SoCal, and Southern could be right there and others make some noise.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Women

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its second week this weekend, the 40 & Over 4.0 event being held in Oklahoma City.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Women's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 17 teams at the event the USTA never creates a schedule that can avoid more than four undefeated teams, and there is a slight (17 in a million) chance of six undefeated and a less than 1% chance of five undefeated.  There is only a 3% chance of four undefeated, meaning it could happen, but it is very likely a 3-1 team will find their way in to the semis and we see a very competitive event.

There is an 92% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 4 at 28%, five is 23%, and three is 21%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 13-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 28% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 67% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 28% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary a bit, but not as much as we see often, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 3.84 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 3.97.  This leads to an easier road for some teams than others, one of the predicted semi-finalists getting there due to an easier schedule.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  NorCal and Southern, are solid picks to advance, and Caribbean, Middle States, and Texas are likely vying for the last two spots, but Northern, Midwest, Intermountain, and Hawaii could make some noise.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Women

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its second week this weekend, the 18 & Over 4.5 event being held in Surprise, Arizona.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Women's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 17 teams at the event the USTA never creates a schedule that can avoid more than four undefeated teams, and there is no chance of six undefeated and a less than 1% chance of five undefeated.  There is only a 3% chance of four undefeated, meaning it could happen, but it is very likely a 3-1 team will find their way in to the semis and we see a very competitive event.

There is an 86% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 4 at 30%, five is 22%, and three is 23%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 13-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 25% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 70% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 26% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary a bit, but not as much as we see often, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 4.27 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.39.  This leads to an easier road for some teams than others, one of the predicted semi-finalists getting there due to an easier schedule.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  Florida and NorCal, are solid picks to advance, and Intermountain, Middle States, and Southern are likely vying for the last two spots, but Mid-Atlantic, SoCal, Northern, and New England could make some noise.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Men

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its second week this weekend, the 18 & Over 4.5 event being held in Surprise, Arizona.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Men's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 17 teams at the event the USTA never creates a schedule that can avoid more than four undefeated teams, and there is a chance of six undefeated (it happened in 406 of the million simulations) and a less than 1% chance of five undefeated.  There is only a 6% chance of four undefeated, meaning it could reasonably happen, but it is very likely a 3-1 team and find their way in to the semis and we see a very competitive event.

There is an 88% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a 4 at 27%, five is 25%, and three is 18%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 15-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 28% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 64% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 29% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary a bit, but not as much as we see often, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 4.35 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.50.  This leads to an easier road for some teams than others, one of the predicted semi-finalists getting there due to an easier schedule.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  SoCal, Southern, NorCal, and Missouri Valley are similarly likely to advance, with Midwest and Middle States also vying for the last spot.  Intermountain, Caribbean, Texas, and Northern could make some noise if they pull an upset or two.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.