Simulating 2019 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

As I did last year, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  Last year, the simulations did a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals are approaching the third weekend of competition, the 18 & Over 4.0 men's event being held in Las Vegas.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

First, with 17 teams playing a random four opponents, it will always be possible for there to be five (or more) undefeated teams.  It is possible to limit it to five with the right schedule, but the USTA did not do that this time around and over 2,000 of the million simulations had six teams undefeated.  The chances of five is a not insignificant 4% and four is just a solid 22%.

Four undefeated would be a nice and tidy result with no drama, but there is a 41% chance of just three so we are more than likely to have some tie-break scenarios.

That leaves a good chance, 77%, that there will be a tie for the last spot and it come down to tie-breakers.  That tie is likely at a 3-1 record.  The most likely size of the tie is a good sized four at 30%, but five has a 26% chance, three 23%, and six 10%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 10-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 20% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 76% chance that is between two teams and a 21% chance it is between three teams,  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 4.03 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.19.  This leads to an easier road for some teams than others, one of the predicted semi-finalists getting there due to an easier schedule.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  Texas, Intermountain, and Middle States are all solid favorites, and Missouri Valley, just edging into the 4th spot.  SoCal is very close, and Mid-Atlantic and NorCal are ready to step in if anyone slips up.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2019 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Women

As I did last year, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  Last year, the simulations did a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

The third weekend of Nationals is just four days from the writing of this preview, the 18 & Over 4.5 women's event being held in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen.

Note that there are just 16 teams at this event, Caribbean appears to not be sending a team.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

First, with 16 teams playing a random four opponents, there is less theoretical chance of five (or more) undefeated teams.  But, with the schedule in place my simulation says the there still is a chance of six(!) undefeated as well as five, but there is still just a 4% chance of even four undefeated.

In fact, there is only at 25% chance of three undefeated, which leaves a very good chance, 93%, that there will be a tie for the last spot and it come down to tie-breakers.  That tie could be two teams at 4-0 but more likely 3-1.  The most likely size of the tie is four at 30%, but there is a 23% chance of a three or five team tie, 12% of six teams, and just 7% chance of two teams.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but an 11-way tie is theoretically possible.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 30% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 64% chance that is between two teams but a 29% chance it is between three teams, and 6% it is four.

The schedule strengths do vary a lot, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 4.39 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.57, a 0.18 spread.  That can clearly lead to an easier road for some teams than others, in fact the two strongest teams got both a tougher and easier schedule.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  NorCal, SoCal, Northern, and Middle States head the list, NorCal/SoCal being co-favorites.  But Florida and Texas are very close with Intermountain lurking along with Southern and Mid-Atlantic.  These teams could all be vying for a spot in a big tie.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Weather Report - 2019 USTA League Nationals Week 3 - Vegas, Arizona, OKC, Orlando

This week finds four sites being used for Nationals so here is the obligatory weather report.

Last week's forecast was pretty good, some cooler temps and wind in OKC and that did come true, but no delays I'm aware of.  But this week, one site may not be so lucky.

Arizona and Vegas are again being used this weekend, and as you'd expect, the weather is near ideal.

Surprise, AZ is 80s and no chance of rain, just some breeze on Sunday:

Vegas is 70s/80s and no chance of rain, slightly breezier on Friday and Sunday:

But the other two sites do not look as good.

Oklahoma City has a fair amount of wind all three days and while the temperatures are fine, some thunderstorms may affect things on Sunday.  Let's hope the matches get in before any rains arrive:

Orlando is the most questionable though with showers late on Friday and into Saturday with Thunderstorms on Sunday:

This is by no means a horrid forecast, it is possible there will be few if any delays, but the chance of them is there.  Thankfully, the National Campus should have the capacity to speed things up if needed.

Where would you rather be playing your Nationals?

Simulating 2019 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Men

As I did last year, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  Last year, the simulations did a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals are approaching the third weekend of competition, the 40 & Over 4.5 men's event being held in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

First, with 17 teams playing a random four opponents, it will always be possible for there to be five (or more) undefeated teams.  It is possible to limit it to five with the right schedule, but the USTA did not do that this time around and 341 of the million simulations had six teams undefeated.  The chances of five are quote low as well at less than 1%.

Four undefeated would be a nice and tidy result with no drama, but there is only an 8% chance of that, so we are more than likely to have some tie-break scenarios.

That leaves a good chance, 89%, that there will be a tie for the last spot and it come down to tie-breakers.  That tie is likely at a 3-1 record.  The most likely size of the tie is four at 27%, then five at 23% and three at 22%.  There is a healthy 13% chance of 6-way tie, but just 8% chance of 2-way.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but an 11-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 28% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 66% chance that is between two teams and a 28% chance it is between three teams,  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 4.44 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.57.  This leads to an easier road for some teams than others, in fact one of the strongest teams got the easiest schedule.

Note that as the size of the potential ties tells us, this is a very competitive group of teams at the top with the top-5 teams separated by just 0.05 on average rating.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4? Mid-Atlantic, Texas, Intermountain, and NorCal head the list, Mid-Atlantic the most likely to make it.  Middle States and Florida are nipping at their heels, Eastern, Southern, and SoCal needing an upset or two..

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2019 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Women

As I did last year, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  Last year, the simulations did a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals are approaching the third weekend of competition, the 18 & Over 4.0 women's event being held in Las Vegas.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

First, with 17 teams playing a random four opponents, it will always be possible for there to be five (or more) undefeated teams.  It is possible to limit it to five with the right schedule, but the USTA did not do that this time around and 47 of the million simulations had six teams undefeated.  The chances of five is just 0.5% and four is just a modest 7%.

Four undefeated would be a nice and tidy result with no drama, but there is a 34% chance of just three so we are more than likely to have some tie-break scenarios.

That leaves a very good chance, 92%, that there will be a tie for the last spot and it come down to tie-breakers.  That tie is likely at a 3-1 record.  The most likely size of the tie is a health five at 29%, but four has a 28% chance, six 17%, and three 15%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 11-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 30% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 65% chance that is between two teams and a 29% chance it is between three teams,  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary a bit but not too much, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 3.97 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.10.  This leads to an easier road for some teams than others, one of the predicted semi-finalists getting there due to an easier schedule.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  NorCal, Southwest, Intermountain, and Texas head the list, NorCal the most likely to make it but not the favorite to win it all.  It is very close for that 4th spot, Florida, Middle States, PNW, and Southern are ready to step in if anyone slips up.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

What is on tap for week 3 of 2019 USTA League Nationals? Busiest weekend this year.

The second weekend of 2019 USTA League Nationals is in the books and week 3 is just 5 days away and will be the busiest weekend this Nationals season with four different events for each gender.

The 18 & Over Nationals continue with the 4.0 men and women in Las Vegas, and Surprise, AZ hosting the 4.5 men and women.

The National Campus in Orlando gets into the action with the 40 & Over 3.0 men and women playing there, and Oklahoma City hosts for the second consecutive weekend with the 40 & Over 3.5 men and women playing there.

Stay tuned for previews using my simulations, I expect some of these events to have some clear favorites and be hotly contested.  But if anyone is still wanting to do some scouting or get more information than my previews provide, contact me and I can do full simulation reports, flight reports, or detailed team reports.  Each can provide information to help captains plan line-ups and make the trip to Nationals more enjoyable.

More 2019 USTA League National Champions Crowned - Week 2

The second weekend of 2019 USTA League Nationals is complete and five more champions have been crowned.

The 18 & Over 2.5 women played in Las Vegas and Southern California and Midwest faced off in the final with Midwest taking the win 2-1.

The 18 & Over 3.0 women played in Oklahoma City with Northern California taking the title over Intermountain with a 3-2 win.

Also in Oklahoma City, the 18 & Over 3.0 men saw Southern and Caribbean in the final with Caribbean taking the 3-2 win.

The 40 & Over division got started with the 4.0 women in Surprise, AZ and the final had the Pacific Northwest facing off vs Southwest and Southwest taking the title with a 3-2 win.

The 40 & Over 4.0 men also in Surprise had Texas and Florida in the final with Texas taking the win 3-2.

While sometimes 3-2 and 2-1 wins are the result of the winning team retiring once they get three courts, these are still some very close matches!

Stay tuned for previews of week 3 soon, it will be a loaded weekend of action.