Sunday, November 18, 2018

So, USTA League Nationals are over, when will 2018 year-end NTRP ratings be published?

With the completion of Mixed Nationals this weekend, everyone's attention will now turn to year-end ratings so players can prepare for their 2018 leagues and form teams at the right level.  Naturally, to know the right level, players need to know their 2018 year-end rating.

First, players that played at least three matches in a league that counts towards ratings will receive a new year-end rating for 2018 (there are a few more qualifiers, but that is the basic criteria).  If you didn't play the requisite three matches, your prior rating will carry over, unless it is 3 years old in which case it will expire and you will have to self-rate again to join a team in 2019.

In some areas like mine, 2019 leagues start early in January and teams must form in December.  In fact, we have to have team forms with minimum rosters turned in the first week of December, so learning what rating one is at as early as possible is desirable.

The general rule of thumb is that ratings are published around December 1st, or another rule of thumb is the week after Thanksgiving.  These are usually close to the same, but this year Thanksgiving is very early, and December 1st is a Saturday.  Hopefully they don't want for the first Monday of December as that would be the 3rd and really put a squeeze on teams in my area having to turn forms in I believe on the 4th.

Here is a history of when they've been published the last few years, typically late in the day/evening PST which is sometimes early AM the next day EST:



We see a lot of Monday releases, but the last couple years they were mid-week.

Given that Thanksgiving is so early, my guess (and hope?) is that ratings are published mid/late the week after Thanksgiving, somewhere around the 29th.  Although, in 2012 when Thanksgiving was early, they were out early the week after.  I do not think they will wait for December though.  But who knows, my guess could be wrong.

Last year the USTA put a countdown timer up on TennisLink telling us when ratings would be published.  It will be interesting to see if they do that again.

We are less than two weeks from the ratings likely being published, so many of you will just wait to see where you end up, but if you are interested in a more detailed analysis showing how I estimate all your matches have rated and how they affected your dynamic rating, contact me for a report.

2018 40 & Over Mixed National Champions: Caribbean, Southern, and Missouri Valley times two

The 40 & Over USTA League Mixed Nationals were played in Orlando this weekend, and after what sounds like some good competition, everything finished up smoothly on Sunday and National Champions were determined.

At the 6.0 level, Caribbean took the title with a 3-0 win over Pacific Northwest.

The 7.0 level, where there had been a 7-way tie for three spots, found Southern playing Hawaii in the final and pulling out a 2-1 win.

At the 8.0 level, Missouri Valley took out Southern Cal 2-1.

And at the 9.0 level, a similarly sounding final happened with Missouri Valley beating Southern 2-1, one of the two wins being decided in a match tie-break.

Congratulations all!

And with all Nationals complete, our attention now turns to year-end ratings.  Stay tuned for more details in the next few days, or contact me if interested in a report estimating where your rating may be.

Saturday, November 17, 2018

Tie-breakers galore at 40 & Over Mixed USTA League Nationals - A 7-way tie for 7.0!

Back when the new format for USTA League Nationals was announced, I wrote about the possibilities it presented and what might happen, a key point being that there could be large ties between teams to determine who would advance to the semi-finals, and the tie-breakers used would be very important.

We've had several scenarios where teams have advanced to the semis based on the currently used tie-breakers that wouldn't have had the tie-breakers been, in my opinion, more equitable, and this weekend for the 40 & Over Mixed we've had some similarly interesting and/or very large ties and a couple cases things could have been different with different rules.

Below, I'll show the standings for the semi-finalists and ties showing each team's win/loss record, their individual courts won/lost, their sets won/lost, and games won/lost.  This is similar to what TennisLink shows and uses for breaking ties, but I've added the sets won and games won stats.  The official tie-breaker doesn't include these but I'm including for discussion purposes.

First, the 7.0 level had what may be the largest tie ever broken in USTA history with 7 teams tied at 3-1 for 2nd thru 8th.  Hawaii was 4-0, and then Southern, Texas, and Caribbean got the other spots having lost fewer sets than Mid-Atlantic.

TeamWLIWILSWSLGWGL
Hawaii4010221613180
Southern319318713082
Texas319319713099
Caribbean3193198136103
Mid-Atlantic319321913391
Midwest318417812196
Pacific NW3184181012893
Middle States3175171211495

But if we take a look at set differential and it were used, the order would change.  Texas and Mid-Atlantic were +12 and would have taken the #2 and #3 spots, and then Southern and Caribbean would have been +11, and with Southern having fewer sets lost, they would have taken the #4 spot.  But the USTA regulations do not look at sets won or sets differential so Mid-Atlantic is out.

It is also interesting to see that of the 7 teams tied, Caribbean lost the most games so had it gotten to that tie-breaker, they would not have advanced.

Next, the 6.0 level had three 4-0 teams, and then a 3-way tie at 3-1 for one spot.  PNW got the spot on fewer games lost compared to Midwest since they had the same number of sets lost.

TeamWLIWILSWSLGWGL
Southern4011123414071
Caribbean4011123414075
Northern409319713577
Pacific NW319318812382
Midwest3193198130113
Hawaii318417813180

We see though that while PNW and Midwest tied on sets lost, Midwest actually won more sets, and if sets differential was used first, they would have advanced.  But the USTA regulations ignore sets won or sets differential and just go straight to games lost after sets lost so PNW gets the spot.

The 9.0 level had one 4-0 team and a 4-way tie for three spots.  The last semi-finalist spot came down to Southern and Eastern tied all the way to sets lost, and Southern got the spot on fewer games lost.

TeamWLIWILSWSLGWGL
Missouri Valley4010220713395
Southern Cal3110221513272
Northern Cal3193191011297
Southern3184191013386
Eastern31841610121109

Had sets differential been used, Southern would have still gotten the spot with a +9 vs +6 for Eastern.

As far as head-to-head, Eastern gave SoCal their loss, Southern gave NorCal their loss, MoValley gave Southern their loss, and Texas (2-2) gave Eastern their loss.  Head-to-head is used after individual court wins/losses so didn't have a role here.

The 8.0 level was boring, two 4-0 teams in Missouri Valley and Southern Cal, and two 3-1 teams, although Intermountain did get the #3 spot over Southern having lost fewer games since they were tied on sets lost, and sets won for that matter.

So there was some very close and competitive tennis played so far, and a few situations that highlight the importance of fair and equitable tie-breakers.  But regardless of how the ties were broken, good luck to the semi-finalists tomorrow!

2018 USTA League 40 & Over Mixed Update

Part way into day 2, things are tight at all levels at the last 2018 Nationals being played in Orlando this weekend.

At the 6.0 level, as I write this a full 11 teams have one or fewer losses and are still in it.  And with just three undefeated teams, there is very likely to be a tie for at least one spot.  The updated simulation has Northern, Southern, and Caribbean advancing with PNW and Midwest in a tie for 4th.

The 7.0 level has 9 teams with one loss or fewer and just two undefeated.  The current simulation has a 6-way tie for 2nd behind an undefeated Hawaii, three teams will be left out if it plays out that way.

At 8.0, there are 9 teams with one or fewer losses and just three undefeated.  The simulation says just a 3-way tie at 3-1 behind SoCal and Midwest, but a large group at 2-2 right behind them.

And at 9.0, there are 7 teams with one or fewer losses and just one undefeated.  A big tie at 3-1 is possible but the simulation says just 4 tied for 2nd behind MoValley.

It will be fun to see how close these end up being.

Friday, November 16, 2018

When a DQ isn't a DQ?

Note: Apologies in advance to those that have regulations phobia.  I'm going to be doing some quoting and explaining of some USTA League regulations.

Note 2: If you read through it all, I do get around to asking for your opinion at the end, would love to get people's thoughts here on the blog or in Facebook comments.

Now, on to the topic at hand.

It is pretty common knowledge that a USTA League player that is 3-strike DQ'd and promoted to the next level is not allowed play at their lower/DQ'd level after the DQ occurs. Here is the rule from the USTA Regulations (emphasis mine).
2.04B(3) Following an NTRP Dynamic Disqualification, the player may not play at the disqualified NTRP level of play or any lower NTRP level of play in either singles or doubles for the remainder of the Championship Year and for the succeeding Championship Year.  In any Division using combined levels, the combined NTRP rating of the disqualified player and partner may not surpass the level of competition. A player who has been moved up as a result of an NTRP Dynamic Disqualification in the Adult Division must immediately adjust his/her NTRP level of play in the Mixed Division.

It is also pretty well known that a player cannot be DQ'd at Nationals.  Here is that rule:
2.04B(2) Championships NTRP Dynamic Disqualification. There will be no NTRP Dynamic Disqualifications at National Championships.

What is perhaps not well known and I've seen happen is that a player can be DQ'd after Nationals if they accumulate a third strike at Nationals.  Here is a relevant rule on how DQ's would affect play at subsequent championships/Nationals (emphasis mine).
2.04B(5) Individuals who receive their third strike while participating in an Early Start League (ESL) must immediately adjust their NTRP level of play. Such players may not participate at the disqualified NTRP level in a previous year’s championship for which they may have qualified.

Note that this seems go to against another rule saying strikes aren't even checked at Nationals (emphasis mine):
2.04B NTRP Dynamic Disqualification Procedures. Dynamic ratings will be calculated for all Adult Division players during local league competition and at every level of championship competition below National Championships to determine if any players have reached the NTRP Dynamic Disqualification criteria

But I have seen players DQ'd as a result of play at Nationals, so 2.04B only seems to be followed during the event but the strikes are calculated after the event.  In fact, it happened this year in an interesting case.

The player was self-rated this year and went to one of the Adult Nationals events in mid-October, and apparently got a third strike there (despite 2.04B) as they are shown at the next higher level with a 'D' now on TennisLink, and the date shown for the DQ is in October a few days after that Nationals finished with no other matches played.  Note that this player is rostered on a team in a 2019 ESL which is perhaps why their strikes were checked and the DQ/promotion recorded which is why I quoted 2.04B(5) above and believe it applies.

The player also went to 18 & Over Mixed Nationals three weeks after the Adult Nationals and per rule 2.04B(3) and 2.04B(5) above, would seem to have been required to play at their new/promoted level, but they played with a partner rated such that it is clear they were allowed to play at their lower/DQ'd level.

Further, the player also qualified for 40 & Over Mixed Nationals this weekend and the same thing happened again.

So why were they allowed to play?  The rules do seem to be at least a bit ambiguous, or at least somewhat in conflict with each other, so must be interpreted, and apparently the interpretation was to allow them to play.

One interpretation (A) of the rules is that DQ's don't happen at a given Nationals event, e.g. a player will not be DQ'd during the weekend of a specific event they are playing at, but can occur after the event like we see happened in this case.  Given the player shows up as a 'D' at the promoted level on TennisLink, this would seem to be what happened, the player was DQ'd.

Another interpretation (B) might be that once Nationals start, a player cannot be DQ'd from any Nationals event that year.  This is perhaps the interpretation used to allow them to play, even though the player does show up as DQ'd on TennisLink.  The rationale may be that the DQ should not have been calculated per 2.04B and so that supersedes it being published and they are acting as if it wasn't published.

I am not a lawyer, but my reading of the rules is that interpretation A is more correct, the player should not have been allowed to play at their lower/DQ'd level.  In my opinion, more of the rules support it, and more importantly the rules that say no DQ's occur or strikes aren't checked at Nationals don't seem to have been followed, the player does show up on TennisLink at DQ'd, so the other rules should then kick in.

Even if you consider the "at" in 2.04B(2) to be ambiguous to a specific event or all Nationals, 2.04B(5) applies in this case as the player is participating in an ESL, got their third strike, and so must immediately adjust their NTRP level, including not being able to participate at the DQ'd level in a 2018 championship.  The boxes for this rule seem to have all been checked and thus it should apply.  And 2.04B(5) would seem to have been written explicitly for this scenario.

If the intent of the "at" in 2.04B(2) was to mean cannot be DQ'd from any Nationals event once they have been started, and 2.04B(5) is there only to potentially DQ a player prior to any Nationals event starting, one can see that side of the argument.  But then why do they show up as DQ'd on TennisLink?

Playing devil's advocate for a minute, I can see an argument that a player may be playing at Nationals on consecutive weekends and have made travel plans for the second already when they are DQ'd after the first, and that it would not be fair to not allow them to play and be out the travel expenses.  I can poke two holes in this though.

First, this is the accepted danger/risk of having self-rated players on a Nationals team.  The USTA already gives a wide berth allowing self-rated players to improve and not get strikes.  By the time they've gotten 3 strikes they really have demonstrated themselves to be way above level and that their self-rating was not accurate.  And in this case, the player went 5-1 at Nationals at the new/promoted level!  Allowing them to play isn't fair to all their opponents and opposing teams, a significantly larger number than the player in question and their teammates.  Shouldn't the rule be biased towards being fair to the larger number of players, and fair to those that didn't violate a rule and get DQ'd?

Second, the events affected were Mixed where it being a "combo" league, it was possible for this player to still play at their promoted level on the team, just with a lower rated partner.  E.g. for 7.0 Mixed, a 3.5 that is DQ'd to 4.0 can still play on the team, they just must play with a 3.0 partner.  So this player was still eligible to play both Mixed events, just with a different partner, so their travel expenses would not be for nought.

Clearly there is some interpretation to be made with the rules and regardless of what the right interpretation was, one was made and the players at the Mixed Nationals this year will carry on.  What I think is more important now is that this is cleared up in the future, specifically that the language in the regulations is clarified or enhanced to be clear on how this should be handled, even if it is interpretation B, just so there isn't controversy about it.

But I've stated my case for not allowing them to play.  What do you think and why?  Am I being too strict it not allowing them to play?  Should there be some leniency during Nationals?  How should the regulations be changed or clarified?



Thursday, November 15, 2018

Weather Update: Getting _to_ USTA League Nationals!

Normally I give an update on the weather at the site for a Nationals weekend.  This weekend in Orlando the weather looks very good, 70s and sunny.  However, getting to Orlando may be the issue.  With a winter storm hitting the Northeast, I'm hearing of delayed and even cancelled flights.

I'm not sure what the contingency plan is if a team just can't make it.  They could just give all opponents default wins, or just not include the match in the standings, both have a different effect on how teams would be identified for the semis.

Ideally, if a team were to be missing, the schedule would get redone without the team so that all teams still play four matches.  With the schedule simulation work I've done, I know I could do that in minutes, not sure if the USTA is prepared to or not.

I do hope it doesn't come to that though.  Here's hoping everyone's flights go as scheduled or alternate plans can be found to get all the teams there on-time.

Safe travels everyone!

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 40 & Over Mixed 8.0 (corrected)

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is the set of my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-12 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 40 & Over Mixed 8.0 that is coming up this weekend in Orlando, FL.

There is the full 17 teams and with that and the schedule the USTA came up with, there is actually a chance of six(!) teams being undefeated.  That shouldn't be the case, it is entirely possible to have a schedule where no more than five teams can be undefeated.  Now, the chances are exceedingly low of six 4-0 teams occurring, 0.001%, but it is possible, and five teams undefeated has a 4% chance.

The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:
  • Southern Cal - 89%
  • Northern Cal - 81%
  • Midwest - 80%
  • Hawaii - 80%

Just the first above has a 4-0 record as most likely, and there is just four teams in a tie at 3-1 as the most likely record, Eastern being the other team.  Five teams are at 2-2 though and could get to 3-1.

If the teams predicted make the semis, Hawaii would be a narrow favorite over SoCal and NorCal over Midwest, with Hawaii the very narrow pick in the final.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-12 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Update: Made a correction due to marking a player ineligible which changed things a bit.