How did the Bears and Giants rank in the top-10 but not make the playoffs?

We all know that a record doesn't tell you everything about a team, and looking at my week 17 ratings and rankings and comparing to who made the playoffs, this is evident on several levels.

First, Indianapolis is ranked #21 but is one of the 12 teams making the playoffs.  This is due to  2 things, a very weak schedule based in part on having the worst record last year, and winning a lot of close games.  Their performance chart is telling.  You can see how their wins are mostly just above their rating while several of their losses are well below their rating.



But what about the teams that were "left out"?

Chicago is ranked #7 by my computer but lost the wildcard tie-breaker to Minnesota on division record.  To be fair, my computer has Minnesota #8 just over 0.1 points behind, and Chicago is not ahead of any other non-division winner in the NFC.  Their chart shows a clear decline in the second  half of their year where they went 5-8, although all those losses were to playoff teams.  Their rating is fairly high because of this tough schedule (#7) with only 3 playoff teams having a tougher schedule.



The Giants are ranked #10 by my computer but were a game out of the tie-breaker with Chicago and Minnesota.  Had they won one more game, they would have had the conference record advantage over both of them and been in the playoffs.  But losing 3 of their last 5 hurt them, although they too were to playoff teams.  And losing early in the year to 3 teams that didn't make the playoffs didn't help.

Early 2012/13 NFL Playoffs Superbowl Odds

We now know who will be in the playoffs and who will play who.  With that, it is time to run through the scenarios of how the playoffs could play out, and what that means to the chances of each team making it to and winning the Superbowl.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
Denver	0.378	0.205
New England	0.323	0.174
San Francisco	0.292	0.148
Atlanta	0.292	0.138
Seattle	0.128	0.066
Green Bay	0.130	0.064
Houston	0.102	0.048
Baltimore	0.091	0.041
Minnesota	0.077	0.035
Washington	0.080	0.035
Cincinnati	0.060	0.027
Indianapolis	0.046	0.019

While Denver is not the highest rated team by my computer, they do have home field advantage through the playoffs and thus have the edge over the Patriots to get to the Superbowl as well as win it.  The Patriots are the 2nd pick though and not that far behind.

In the NFC, the 49ers and Falcons are nearly equals to both get to and win the Superbowl, the edge going to the 49ers because of Atlanta's slide the past few weeks of the season.  The highest rated team in the NFC is Seattle and because they have to play an extra round as compared with the 1st four mentioned, and thus the slot in at the 5th pick.

The chances fall out after that somewhat as expected with the Colts have the worst chance at just under 5% of making it to the Superbowl and less than 2% of winning.

NFL Playoff Team Performance Charts

With the completion of the NFL regular season, it is interesting to take a look at the performance charts for the playoff teams to see how they are entering the post-season.  Here they are with a few comments.



The Patriot's rating was remarkably consistent, even if they had a few up and down games.



Denver started the season a bit lower, and started 2-3, but then went on  a streak and have been in the top-4 the last 8 weeks.



Seattle benefited from a win over Green Bay early, but finished the season very strong and moving up to #3.



The 49ers have had the lowest lows of any of the top-4 teams, but also some pretty high highs.



The Packers have been a bit up and down, but finished pretty strong until the loss to the Vikings who they get to play again.



Atlanta was strong early, but wasn't as good late, some questions entering the post-season.



Minnesota was the last team in, but finished strong in their last 4 to get there.



Houston is a bit like Atlanta, not finishing strong at all.



Washington had a worse start than Denver, 3-6, but have had a similar strong finish.



Baltimore has a similar profile to Houston and somewhat Atlanta, not finishing that strong.



Cincinnati also finished strong, just the lone loss to Dallas, to get into the playoffs.



The Colts had a very weak schedule and made the most of it, being #21 in the league but being amongst the 12 teams making the playoffs.  A lot of close wins is what didn't impress the computer.

NFL Week 17 Ratings and Rankings - New England finished #1

The ratings after week 17 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England moves back ahead of Denver based primarily on Denver having to play the worst team in the league while the Patriots got to play now 7-9 Miami.  They are only a half point apart so it really is very close.

Behind them, Seattle stays ahead of San Francisco, despite San Francisco beating them out for the NFC West.  Atlanta falls more with their loss than Green Bay does leaving the Packers at #5 and the Falcons at #6.

It will be no solace to Chicago that they are #7 and ahead of Minnesota at #8 because they lost out on tie-breakers to them.  Houston's losing streak dropped them all the way to #9.

The Giants are another team that missed the playoffs but is ranked ahead of teams that made it.  The worst team in the playoffs?  The Colts way down at #21.

We are now on to the playoffs.  Look for more posts shortly.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	88.523	12-4	80.320	+1, +0.357
2	Denver	88.081	13-3	79.177	-1, -0.169
3	Seattle	87.650	11-5	81.924	+0, -0.056
4	San Francisco	87.099	11-4-1	82.150	+0, +0.050
5	Green Bay	85.896	11-5	81.290	+1, -0.274
6	Atlanta	84.958	13-3	79.527	-1, -1.216
7	Chicago	84.060	10-6	81.363	+1, -0.064
8	Minnesota	83.946	10-6	81.484	+1, +0.269
9	Houston	83.794	12-4	79.902	-2, -1.170
10	NY Giants	83.602	9-7	80.989	+0, +0.179
11	Washington	83.021	10-6	80.597	+1, +0.274
12	Baltimore	82.519	10-6	80.111	-1, -0.376
13	Cincinnati	82.382	10-6	78.799	+0, +0.214
14	St Louis	81.614	7-8-1	82.785	+0, +0.136
15	Carolina	81.549	7-9	80.928	+1, +0.627
16	New Orleans	80.560	7-9	81.131	-1, -0.667
17	Tampa Bay	80.338	7-9	80.695	+3, +0.990
18	Pittsburgh	80.311	8-8	79.178	+1, +0.382
19	Dallas	80.100	8-8	81.347	-2, -0.382
20	Miami	79.731	7-9	80.485	-2, -0.357
21	Indianapolis	79.525	11-5	78.955	+2, +1.010
22	San Diego	78.938	7-9	79.111	-1, -0.333
23	Arizona	78.491	5-11	82.889	-1, -0.221
24	Buffalo	77.661	6-10	80.197	+2, +0.931
25	Detroit	77.635	4-12	81.987	+0, -0.145
26	NY Jets	77.269	6-10	81.018	-2, -0.952
27	Cleveland	76.327	5-11	79.939	+0, -0.365
28	Tennessee	75.700	6-10	80.204	+0, +0.503
29	Philadelphia	73.826	4-12	81.157	+0, -0.405
30	Oakland	73.267	4-12	79.700	+0, +0.301
31	Jacksonville	71.327	2-14	80.526	+0, -0.634
32	Kansas City	70.582	2-14	80.419	+0, +0.208

NFL Week 16 Ratings and Rankings - Denver the new #1

The ratings after week 16 are now posted and listed below as well.

Denver moves to #1 ahead of New England, and Seattle moves to #3 ahead of the 49ers.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Denver	88.250	12-3	80.022	+2, +0.282
2	New England	88.166	11-4	80.648	-1, -0.662
3	Seattle	87.706	10-5	82.157	+2, +1.147
4	San Francisco	87.049	10-4-1	82.646	-2, -1.201
5	Atlanta	86.174	13-2	79.659	+1, +0.303
6	Green Bay	86.170	11-4	80.981	+1, +0.384
7	Houston	84.964	12-3	79.729	-3, -1.683
8	Chicago	84.124	9-6	81.431	+1, +0.928
9	Minnesota	83.677	9-6	81.377	+2, +1.624
10	NY Giants	83.423	8-7	81.751	-2, -1.162
11	Baltimore	82.895	10-5	79.819	+1, +0.951
12	Washington	82.747	9-6	80.887	-2, +0.096
13	Cincinnati	82.168	9-6	78.862	+0, +0.378
14	St Louis	81.478	7-7-1	82.219	+3, +0.933
15	New Orleans	81.227	7-8	81.329	+0, +0.300
16	Carolina	80.922	6-9	80.856	+0, +0.046
17	Dallas	80.482	8-7	81.083	-3, -0.625
18	Miami	80.088	7-8	79.719	+2, +0.214
19	Pittsburgh	79.929	7-8	79.665	-1, -0.412
20	Tampa Bay	79.348	6-9	80.291	-1, -0.900
21	San Diego	79.271	6-9	79.733	+3, +1.013
22	Arizona	78.712	5-10	82.518	+0, -0.615
23	Indianapolis	78.515	10-5	78.954	+0, -0.055
24	NY Jets	78.221	6-9	81.001	-3, -1.221
25	Detroit	77.780	4-11	82.187	+0, -0.213
26	Buffalo	76.730	5-10	80.692	+0, -0.766
27	Cleveland	76.692	5-10	79.603	+0, -0.118
28	Tennessee	75.197	5-10	81.072	+0, -0.513
29	Philadelphia	74.231	4-11	80.849	+0, -0.304
30	Oakland	72.966	4-11	79.662	+0, +0.110
31	Jacksonville	71.961	2-13	80.616	+0, +0.200
32	Kansas City	70.374	2-13	79.622	+0, -0.003

NFC East Playoff Scenarios as of 12/13 2:40pm Pacific

After the early games today, we have a situation where 6 teams could be tied at 9-7 in the NFC, one winning the NFC East and the other 5 vying for the 2 wildcard spots.

First, let's take a look who would win the NFC East.  In this scenario, Dallas beats Washington and the Giants go 1-1 in their last 2 games.  Dallas would win the division on the common opponent tie-breaker over Washington with the Giants having fallen by the wayside on the division record tie-breaker.

That would leave Washington, the Giants, Minnesota, Chicago, and Seattle as the other teams.  Seattle would have to go 0-2, Chicago 1-1, and Minnesota 1-1.

Washington would get the first wildcard, first by beating the Giants on division record, then beating the other 3 teams on conference record.

Then the wildcard tie-breakers are done again, this time with the Giants included again and now the Giants beat the other teams on conference record.

There are certainly many other scenarios, but this one was pretty interesting so thought I'd write it up.  More perhaps later.

What if the NFL used the BCS?

Thankfully the NFL doesn't and we have normal playoffs, but Alex at the Bleacher Report went through the effort the use one human poll, my computer ratings, and three other computers to come up with "BCS" standings for the NFL.  Take a look here.