Baltimore at New England 2012 Playoff Preview - New England to win, Baltimore to cover but it is close

Baltimore plays at New England on 1/22 in the AFC Championship.

Baltimore is ranked #5 by the computer with a 13-4 record and a rating of 85.745 against a schedule strength of 80.597. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent except in their losses, their worst game being at San Diego and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 8-8-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-10-1 picking their games against the spread and 11-6 picking winners in their games.



New England is ranked #1 by the computer with a 14-3 record and a rating of 89.360 against a schedule strength of 80.764. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down but pretty good late, their worst game being against NY Giants and best game being at Philadelphia. They are 10-7 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-11 picking their games against the spread and 13-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees as follows:


2 Baltimore-->Indianapolis-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->San_Diego-->New_England


The spread is New England by 7.5 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 6.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Baltimore +7.5 over *x New England 6.6 0.9 0.707 0.529

But digging deeper, looking at their last 4 games, even with the down game against Miami, New England averages 92.3 ratings points, higher than their 89.4 rating for the year.  With that rating, we'd expect New England to cover as well as win.

Even if we look at Baltimore's last 3, they are a tick up from their season rating at 86.9, but with having to go to New England it is hard to see how one would pick the upset and even taking the 7.5 may be iffy.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Giants at San Francisco 2012 Playoff Preview - San Francisco to win and cover, except ...

The Giants plays at San Francisco on 1/22 in the NFC championship.

New York is ranked #6 by the computer with a 11-7 record and a rating of 85.342 against a schedule strength of 83.010. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down but are up now, their worst game being against Washington and best game being last week at Green Bay. They are 10-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-9-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-11 picking winners in their games.



San Francisco is ranked #4 by the computer with a 14-3 record and a rating of 87.689 against a schedule strength of 80.824. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent, their worst game being against Dallas and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 13-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 13-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams played earlier in the year the 49ers winning 27-20 at home and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:


2 NY_Giants-->Arizona-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Arizona-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Dallas-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Dallas-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Seattle-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Seattle-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Washington-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Washington-->San_Francisco


The spread is San Francisco by 2 and the computer agrees picking them by over 5.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xSan Francisco -2.0 over . NY Giants 5.3 3.3 0.677 0.613

But, let's dig deeper.

While San Francisco has been pretty consistent, the Giants have been all over the place, but very good lately.  In their last 4, the Giants average rating is a whopping 97.9 which is better than the 49ers best game hosting Pittsburgh (97.6) and well ahead of the 49ers 87.7 rating and even the average of their best 4 games (94.1).

So if the Giants play at that level, the game would actually be a Giants pick against anything other than the 49ers single best game.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

College Basketball Week 11 Ratings and Rankings - Syracuse back to #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Syracuse narrowly moves back to #1 this week, but the big moves is at #3 and #4 with two Big-12 teams jumping up.  Florida also makes a big move to #10.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Syracuse	87.758	19-0	70.994	+1, +0.620
2	Ohio State	87.573	16-3	71.260	-1, -0.864
3	Baylor	86.516	16-0	70.914	+5, +1.537
4	Missouri	85.618	16-1	68.921	+3, +0.269
5	Kansas	85.347	14-3	72.967	-1, -0.599
6	Michigan St	84.849	15-3	72.436	+0, -0.598
7	Kentucky	84.839	17-1	69.234	-4, -1.645
8	Duke	83.822	15-2	74.771	+2, -0.511
9	North Carolina	83.016	15-3	70.543	-4, -2.626
10	Florida	82.992	14-4	70.749	+9, +1.186
11	St Mary's CA	82.928	15-2	69.369	+3, +0.486
12	UNLV	82.776	14-3	71.908	+0, -0.510
13	Kansas St	82.553	12-4	72.842	-4, -1.966
14	Alabama	81.968	13-4	72.674	+1, -0.169
15	Seton Hall	81.935	15-3	72.016	+5, +0.277
16	Creighton	81.906	16-2	70.969	+7, +0.564
17	Indiana	81.561	15-3	71.643	-6, -2.713
18	Virginia	81.512	14-2	68.068	+9, +0.523
19	West Virginia	81.281	13-5	73.308	+6, +0.256
20	Wichita St	81.221	14-3	71.383	+6, +0.220
21	New Mexico	81.201	14-2	68.828	+9, +0.927
22	Wisconsin	81.188	14-5	71.551	+2, -0.084
23	Brigham Young	81.171	13-4	69.973	+5, +0.517
24	California	81.118	15-4	69.773	-2, -0.385
25	Murray St	81.080	15-0	68.723	-12, -1.760

Week 19 NFL Ratings and Rankings - New #1 New England

The NFL ratings after week 19 are now posted here and below.

And there are some changes.  With Green Bay's loss and New England's win, New England is the new #1.  Despite their loss, New Orleans remains #2.  San Francisco is a close #4 and the other teams in the conference championship games are #5 and #6.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	89.360	14-3	80.764	+2, +0.616
2	New Orleans	88.567	14-4	80.583	+0, -0.386
3	Green Bay	88.547	15-2	80.768	-2, -1.868
4	San Francisco	87.689	14-3	80.824	+0, +0.496
5	Baltimore	85.745	13-4	80.597	+0, +0.260
6	NY Giants	85.342	11-7	83.010	+3, +1.533
7	Pittsburgh	85.219	12-5	80.983	-1, +0.081
8	Philadelphia	84.607	8-8	81.996	-1, +0.412
9	Detroit	83.728	10-7	82.465	-1, -0.405
10	Houston	83.519	11-7	80.294	+0, -0.244
11	Atlanta	82.974	10-7	81.528	+0, -0.124
12	San Diego	82.597	8-8	81.426	+0, -0.206
13	NY Jets	82.259	8-8	82.131	+1, +0.241
14	Seattle	82.108	7-9	81.682	+2, +0.278
15	Miami	82.034	6-10	81.991	+0, +0.191
16	Chicago	81.947	8-8	81.767	-3, -0.387
17	Dallas	81.649	8-8	81.909	+0, +0.437
18	Cincinnati	81.068	9-8	81.152	+0, +0.047
19	Tennessee	80.873	9-7	80.080	+0, -0.103
20	Arizona	80.167	8-8	81.423	+2, +0.268
21	Denver	79.771	9-9	82.348	-1, -0.468
22	Carolina	79.711	6-10	80.983	-1, -0.231
23	Oakland	79.405	8-8	81.656	+0, -0.235
24	Buffalo	79.170	6-10	82.468	+1, +0.179
25	Kansas City	78.756	7-9	81.676	-1, -0.240
26	Washington	78.118	5-11	82.305	+0, +0.394
27	Minnesota	77.178	3-13	82.024	+0, -0.345
28	Jacksonville	76.984	5-11	80.936	+0, -0.089
29	Cleveland	76.508	4-12	81.543	+0, +0.072
30	St Louis	74.013	2-14	83.456	+2, +0.197
31	Tampa Bay	73.877	4-12	82.591	-1, -0.175
32	Indianapolis	73.831	2-14	81.534	-1, -0.100

Houston at Baltimore 2012 Playoff Preview - Baltimore to win, Houston to cover

Houston plays at Baltimore on 1/15 in a divisional playoff game.

Houston is ranked #10 by the computer with a 11-6 record and a rating of 83.763 against a schedule strength of 79.858. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very consistent mid-year but had some down times, their worst game being against Carolina and best game being at Tennessee. They are 11-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-7 picking their games against the spread and 11-6 picking winners in their games.



Baltimore is ranked #5 by the computer with a 12-4 record and a rating of 85.485 against a schedule strength of 80.531. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, their worst game being at San Diego and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 8-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-10-1 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head week 6 Baltimore winning 29-14 and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:


2 Houston-->Cincinnati-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Cincinnati-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Baltimore


The spread is Baltimore by 8 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 4.7. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Houston +8.0 over *x Baltimore 4.7 3.3 0.639 0.598

But let's dig deeper.

Houston had 5 clear bad games, if we remove those their ratings average is 89.6.  Their problem is that we'd be removing 3 of their last 4 games.  The good news is their last game was their second best of the year.  Houston actually rates better on the road, an 85.7 average.

If we similarly drop Baltimore's 4 losses, their average rating is 90.1, a bit better than Houston's.  At home their rating average is 89.7, better than their road average.

So, it is probably hard to see how Houston has a great shot at the win, but it could be close.  Taking the points certainly looks promising.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

New York Giants at Green Bay 2012 Playoff Preview - Green Bay to win and cover

New York plays at Green Bay on 1/15 in a divisional playoff game.

New York is ranked #9 by the computer with a 10-7 record and a rating of 83.809 against a schedule strength of 82.357. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down, their worst game being against Washington and best game being against Atlanta. They are 9-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-8-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-10 picking winners in their games.



Green Bay is ranked #1 by the computer with a 15-1 record and a rating of 90.415 against a schedule strength of 80.833. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were far more consistent save a couple down games late in the season, their worst game being at Kansas City and best game being at Detroit. They are 11-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 15-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head and are separated by 2 degrees through as follows:


1 NY_Giants-->Green_Bay
2 NY_Giants-->New_Orleans-->Green_Bay
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->Green_Bay


The spread is Green Bay by 7.5 and the computer says it should be more, picking them by 9.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:


*xGreen_Bay             -7.5 over  .            NY_Giants  9.6  2.1 0.803 0.574


But let's dig deeper.

The Giants are clearly not a consistent team.  If they play like their last 3, they are playing quite well.  Their average rating over that span is an impressive 95.8.  And their average in their best 5 games is an even more impressive 96.3.  However, at their worst, they are pretty bad, their worst 5 averaging 69.7.

New Orleans cannot boast such highs or lows.  Their worst 5 average 83.5 and their best 5 average 95.8.  Their last 3 average just 85.0.

So should the average of both teams show up, the computer's pick looks solid.  But based on the best of both teams, the game should be very close, and if the season ending trends hold up, you have to like the Giants.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011/2012 College Bowl Games: A final look at how the conferences performed

Here is the final look at how the conferences performed in the 2011/2012 bowl games.  This analysis isn't just looking at win/loss record, but looks at how the conferences should have done based on each game.

The rationale for this is that the actual record alone doesn't tell the whole story.  If a conference is having a down year and/or gets some matchups that aren't favorable, you'd expect a poor record so even a 0.500 record may be an indication the conference did well or at least better than expected.  Thus comparing the actual with expected record is useful, as is looking at how a conference does against the spread, as that tells you if the teams did better/worse than Vegas and the public bettors expected.

The table below has the totals for 34 bowls (BCS Championship game not included since it was SEC vs SEC) and lists the expected record based on Vegas' individual game picks, the record based on my computer's individual game picks, the record my computer said was most likely for the conference taking into account the chance of winning each game and the possible permutations, and then the actual record and record against the spread.  The list is ordered by Vegas expected record.

Conference	Vegas	Computer	Most Likely	Actual	ATS
SEC	7-0	7-0	5-2	5-2	4-3
Big-12	6-2	7-1	6-2	6-2	6-2
Sun Belt	2-1	1-2	1-2	1-2	1-2
Mtn West	3-2	3-2	3-2	2-3	2-3
ACC	4-4	2-6	3-5	2-6	3-5
Independents	1-1	1-1	1-1	1-1	0-1-1
MAC	2-3	4-1	3-2	4-1	3-2
C-USA	2-3	3-2	3-2	4-1	4-0-1
Big-East	2-3	1-4	2-3	3-2	3-2
WAC	1-2	1-2	1-2	0-3	1-2
B1G	3-7	1-9	4-6	4-6	4-6
Pac-12	1-6	3-4	3-4	2-5	2-5

The SEC was supposed to go undefeated but didn't, going 5-2.  That wasn't really unexpected, my computer said that 5-2 was the most likely record.  And the SEC did go 4-3 against the spread so all in all the SEC did about what was expected.

Similarly, the Big-12 was supposed to go 6-2 and did, although they did go 6-2 against the spread so beating expectations there.  My computer had the SEC and Big-12 in a virtual tie for the best conference and the bowl games did nothing to contradict that.

Behind them, the only other conferences expected to do better than 0.500 by Vegas were the Sun Belt and Mountain West, but neither did.  The Sun Belt did what my computer said they would, 1-2, and the Mountain West was a game worse than expected.  These are weaker conferences and did nothing to show that perception wasn't true.

The other major conferences also did about what was expected.  The ACC probably underachieved a bit, Vegas expecting 4-4, but my computer said 2-6/3-5 and they finished 2-6.  They went 3-5 against the spread though so probably a slight underachievement.

The BigTen was expected to be 3-7 by Vegas, the most likely record according to my computer though was 4-6 and they did that.

And the Pac-12 went 2-5, better than Vegas' 1-6, but worse than my computer's 3-4.

So there you have it.  A look at how the conferences really did in the bowl games.