College Football Week 5 Preview

Here are what the computer thinks of a few of the key games today.  And there are a bunch of good ones.

Last week, the featured games went 5-0 against the spread including picking the Oklahoma State upset.

Poll #14 Texas A&M and #18 Arkansas meet in Arlington in a preview of a future SEC game, and the computer likes its #11 A&M by 8.6 over its #32 Arkansas, a lot more than the 2.5 point line.  This is one of the stronger picks by the computer this week.

The ACC has a big game with poll #13 Clemson visiting #11 Virginia Tech.  The computer doesn't have them ranked as high, #24 and #19 respectively, but it should be a good game with Virginia Tech winning by around 5.  This is less than the 7.5 line so take Clemson plus the points.

In a rematch from a big upset last year, poll #17 Texas visits 3-0 Iowa State.  Iowa State won in Austin 28-21 last year, so Texas will be out to return the upset.  The computer has them #33 and #44 respectively and being at home for them likes Iowa State to pull the upset again, but in a virtual tie.  Take them plus the 9 points.

While Texas A&M and Arkansas is a preview of a future conference matchup, poll #8 Nebraska visiting #7 Wisconsin is the first game of a new conference matchup and could very well determine the BIG10 champion.  Vegas has Wisconsin by 10 which the computer thinks is too much, having its #8 Wisconsin winning by just 7.3 over its #13 Nebraska.  Take the road team plus the points.

And in the game that could be a significant factor in determining BCS bowls the SEC is in and perhaps the national champion, poll #3 Alabama visits #12 Florida.  The computer has about the same ranking at #2 and #12, but likes Alabama by a lot more than the 4 point line, picking them by 8.2.  If Florida does pull off the win, they'll definitely move up in the ratings.

Enjoy the games!

NFL projected records after week 3

Three games in, the projected playoff picture is becoming a bit clearer.  See the full list of projections here.

In the NFC Green Bay is projected to go 15-1 and lead the entire NFL.  They would be favored in all their games, but with 13 to go the cumulative chance that they lose 1 is still higher than winning them all.  The other NFC playoff teams would be New Orleans, Dallas, and San Francisco, with wildcards Detroit and Washington.  Interestingly the computer is projecting that it will take an 11-5 record to make the playoffs.

In the AFC, New England still leads the way but at just 13-3 now.  The other division winners are projected to be Houston, Oakland, and Baltimore, with wildcards Buffalo and Tennessee.  Again, an 11-5 record is required to make the playoffs.

Week 3 NFL Ratings Posted - Green Bay new #1

The NFL ratings after week 3 are now posted here.

Green Bay is the new #1 but the Patriots are still close behind at #2 and another 1-loss team in New Orleans is #3.  The unbeaten surprises, Detroit and Buffalo are at #4 and #5 with a bunch of 1-loss teams right behind.  Chicago is the best 2-loss team at #12.

At the bottom of the list, Seattle climbs out of the cellar to #30 ahead of the Colts and new cellar dweller St. Louis.

The computer is still adjusting and went 7-9 against the spread, but went a nice 10-6 picking winners compared to Vegas' 9-7.

College Football Performance Charts - Week 4

I've been creating performance charts that show specifics about how each team has performed and give a little insight into how the rating is arrived at.

Below you can see:

• The points each team has received for each game (green and red dots), the size of the dot showing how meaningful the game was.
• The opponents current rating (yellow diamond)
• The rating by week (dark blue line)
• The schedule strength by week (light blue line)

Let me know if you have any questions!

Preliminary Week 3 Season Projections

Last week I posted preliminary ratings and rankings before Monday night's game.  This week I'm posting preliminary projected records for the regular season.

NFC playoff teams are in blue, division winners in bold, AFC playoff teams in red.

As of now, surprises Buffalo and Detroit would be in the playoffs both as wildcards.  The NFC division winners would be no surprise, but the 49ers being 11-5 is likely a surprise.  The AFC division winners are also no real surprise except perhaps Oakland at 11-5.

The full projections will be posted tomorrow night.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Green Bay	15-1	38.5	18.7	29.2
New Orleans	14-2	38.0	19.8	28.5
New England	13-3	32.0	24.1	23.1
Houston	12-4	28.1	26.5	18.3
Buffalo	12-4	23.7	16.6	23.0
Oakland	11-5	30.0	26.9	18.9
Dallas	11-5	28.2	24.8	19.9
San Francisco	11-5	27.3	20.6	22.6
Tennessee	11-5	24.8	16.4	24.4
Detroit	11-5	24.4	20.9	19.8
Baltimore	11-5	23.8	18.9	21.1
NY Jets	10-6	24.6	21.1	19.8
Washington	10-6	23.3	20.6	18.8
Chicago	9-7	26.6	20.8	22.0
Cincinnati	9-7	24.4	17.2	23.4
Pittsburgh	8-8	23.4	19.0	20.6
Tampa Bay	7-9	29.3	20.1	25.3
Atlanta	7-9	27.0	18.0	24.9
San Diego	7-9	26.5	18.3	24.8
NY Giants	7-9	26.4	20.7	21.9
Arizona	7-9	25.5	20.5	21.3
Cleveland	6-10	27.7	24.3	19.2
Jacksonville	6-10	24.3	20.7	19.8
Philadelphia	6-10	23.6	17.7	22.2
Denver	5-11	26.6	24.0	18.8
Carolina	4-12	29.3	26.1	18.7
Seattle	4-12	27.7	21.6	22.3
Kansas City	4-12	24.5	20.7	20.1
Minnesota	3-13	29.6	19.0	26.8
Miami	3-13	29.4	20.9	24.5
Indianapolis	2-14	33.2	19.5	29.2
St Louis	2-14	30.1	25.0	20.3

College Football Week 4 Season Projections

And now there are 4 teams projected to finish the season undefeated.

Florida International falls out after their loss, but so does LSU as their future opponents now look stronger, specifically Alabama, which is now projected to finish unblemished.  Boise State now has the best chance, followed by newcomer South Florida.  Oklahoma State also has a good chance now.

There are 7 teams projected with 1-loss now including LSU who has the best chance of the group of being undefeated, but also Stanford, Michigan, and Wisconsin all having a better than 28% chance of being undefeated.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Boise St	12-0	92.0	0.0	7.7
South Florida	12-0	75.1	0.0	22.3
Alabama	12-0	60.8	0.0	36.8
Oklahoma St	12-0	45.3	0.0	39.5
LSU	11-1	64.3	33.6	2.1
Stanford	11-1	43.2	38.9	15.3
Michigan	11-1	42.3	41.2	14.3
Wisconsin	11-1	41.0	28.2	23.2
Oklahoma	11-1	39.8	8.7	35.2
Virginia Tech	11-1	36.7	13.3	32.5
Georgia Tech	11-1	33.3	14.6	31.2

College Football Week 4 Schedule Strengths

Four weeks into the college football season, we can begin to see how teams' schedules compare.  At this point, it is heavily influenced by out of conference schedules and teams in tough conferences may not show up with a difficult schedule yet but will in the end.

Here are the full week 4 ratings, but sorted by schedule strength.

As if often the case, teams with losing records show up at the top as they've played tough teams and lost,  but we see Notre Dame as having played the toughest schedule thus far of any non-losing team, but close behind Oklahoma State, LSU, and Oklahoma being undefeated teams that have played tough schedules.  This is why they are ranked #6, #1, and #7 in the rankings.  Boise State has also played the #12 schedule thus far which is needed for them as their conference schedule will drag them down some.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are a bunch of undefeated teams that have played very weak schedules.  This includes top-25 teams Florida (#105), Wisconsin (#100), Baylor (#95), South Florida (#92), Georgia Tech (#88), and Virginia Tech (#81).  This isn't saying these teams aren't good, my computer has them all in the top-27, but they haven't been consistently tested yet.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Tulsa	70.184	1-3	80.156
2	Arizona	70.272	1-3	77.872
3	Florida Atlantic	54.032	0-3	76.954
4	Notre Dame	79.515	2-2	76.857
5	Nevada	71.280	1-2	76.118
6	Oklahoma St	86.775	4-0	72.678
7	LSU	93.117	4-0	72.331
8	Oklahoma	84.799	3-0	71.959
9	Marshall	59.585	1-3	71.635
10	North Texas	53.428	1-3	71.342
11	Oregon	86.863	3-1	71.194
12	Boise St	86.821	3-0	70.919
13	Troy	61.933	1-2	70.874
14	Rice	57.702	1-2	70.796
15	Kent St	55.810	1-3	70.698
16	Maryland	67.267	1-2	70.409
17	San Jose St	61.428	1-3	70.080
18	Utah	76.590	2-1	69.940
19	UNLV	58.709	1-3	69.809
20	Toledo	68.006	1-3	69.788
21	Brigham Young	67.061	2-2	69.713
22	Georgia	74.568	2-2	69.552
23	Mississippi St	70.379	2-2	69.337
24	South Carolina	78.808	4-0	68.660
25	Penn State	77.652	3-1	68.580
26	Iowa St	70.402	3-0	68.191
27	Middle Tennessee St	60.029	0-3	68.176
28	Miami FL	70.100	1-2	67.918
29	Oregon St	59.510	0-3	67.875
30	Tennessee	76.364	2-1	67.875
31	Missouri	74.596	2-2	67.752
32	Texas A&M	82.116	2-1	67.478
33	Southern Cal	72.685	3-1	67.426
34	Arizona St	80.020	3-1	67.359
35	Louisiana-Monroe	56.272	1-3	67.341
36	Army	58.970	1-3	66.931
37	Alabama-Birmingham	49.156	0-3	66.750
38	Miami OH	56.068	0-3	66.633
39	East Carolina	60.514	1-2	66.618
40	Michigan	82.422	4-0	66.486
41	Kansas	64.478	2-1	66.444
42	Pittsburgh	71.197	2-2	66.352
43	West Virginia	74.806	3-1	66.073
44	San Diego St	71.984	3-1	65.914
45	Stanford	88.016	3-0	65.841
46	UTEP	60.716	2-2	65.822
47	UCLA	65.394	2-2	65.625
48	Washington	68.438	3-1	65.392
49	North Carolina	72.062	3-1	65.242
50	Fresno St	64.105	2-2	65.197
51	Northern Illinois	68.039	2-2	65.018
52	Colorado	60.066	1-3	64.943
53	Louisiana-Lafayette	68.138	3-1	64.865
54	Mississippi	61.261	1-3	64.763
55	Arkansas St	66.292	2-2	64.604
56	Auburn	69.966	3-1	64.558
57	Clemson	76.035	4-0	64.411
58	Idaho	55.536	1-3	64.127
59	Louisiana Tech	63.612	1-3	64.087
60	Central Michigan	53.483	1-3	64.039
61	Duke	62.822	2-2	63.941
62	Western Michigan	70.367	2-2	63.785
63	Ball St	65.116	3-1	63.773
64	Illinois	76.497	4-0	63.754
65	Buffalo	59.203	1-3	63.656
66	Nebraska	80.059	4-0	63.641
67	Alabama	91.709	4-0	63.613
68	Arkansas	73.560	3-1	63.576
69	Wyoming	65.504	3-1	63.556
70	TCU	78.860	3-1	63.225
71	New Mexico	50.555	0-4	63.113
72	Vanderbilt	68.681	3-1	62.497
73	Texas	73.541	3-0	62.386
74	SMU	69.124	3-1	61.940
75	Navy	73.876	2-1	61.890
76	New Mexico St	55.631	1-3	61.888
77	Syracuse	62.958	3-1	61.882
78	Florida Int'l	68.139	3-1	61.804
79	Iowa	72.676	3-1	61.701
80	Minnesota	56.136	1-3	61.511
81	Virginia Tech	77.892	4-0	61.477
82	Akron	48.532	1-3	61.438
83	Western Kentucky	46.516	0-3	61.428
84	Utah St	63.786	1-2	61.397
85	Eastern Michigan	56.076	2-2	61.349
86	Florida St	74.098	2-2	61.146
87	Memphis	50.652	1-3	60.986
88	Georgia Tech	78.389	4-0	60.689
89	Virginia	61.920	2-2	60.471
90	Connecticut	68.196	2-2	60.442
91	California	69.071	3-1	60.363
92	South Florida	82.418	4-0	60.233
93	Boston College	59.312	1-3	60.194
94	Ohio State	68.482	3-1	60.176
95	Baylor	74.641	3-0	59.896
96	Hawaii	62.445	2-2	59.718
97	Temple	75.322	3-1	59.677
98	North Carolina St	62.468	2-2	59.214
99	Michigan St	71.392	3-1	59.166
100	Wisconsin	84.384	4-0	59.147
101	Kentucky	59.194	2-2	58.924
102	Louisville	64.191	2-1	58.731
103	Rutgers	71.620	2-1	58.481
104	Washington St	67.027	2-1	58.270
105	Florida	80.505	4-0	58.186
106	Kansas St	71.003	3-0	58.096
107	Southern Miss	64.573	3-1	57.880
108	Ohio U.	69.270	3-1	57.528
109	Texas Tech	71.062	3-0	57.462
110	Air Force	68.523	2-1	57.396
111	Tulane	56.230	2-2	57.141
112	Central Florida	67.459	2-2	56.997
113	Indiana	57.501	1-3	56.666
114	Cincinnati	70.012	3-1	56.379
115	Northwestern	62.584	2-1	56.229
116	Houston	68.022	4-0	55.891
117	Wake Forest	62.789	2-1	55.234
118	Bowling Green	66.165	3-1	53.592
119	Colorado St	56.776	3-1	53.525
120	Purdue	61.205	2-1	53.194