What would the men's NTRP ratings be from the Australian Open?

I wrote yesterday about what the NTRP ratings would be for the Women's Australian Open if the USTA's NTRP algorithm were to be applied to the tournament results, and I've also done it for the men now.  See the table below.

Like I did for the women's, I only used results from this tournament so I had to default players to start, but did go through an extra iteration to dampen out the effects of doing so.

It is no surprise that Stan heads the list, but it is perhaps a little surprising to see that Djokovic and Berdych are ahead of Nadal.  This is in part because Novak took Stan to a 5th set and Berdych took him to 4 sets, but also because the NTRP algorithm gives a lot of weight to the most recent match, and Nadal was expected to win so the loss was a poor result and really dropped his rating.

Have a look, and let me know what you think.

Name	Rating	Record
Name	Rating	Record
S.Wawrinka	7.24	5-0
N.Djokovic	7.14	4-1
T.Berdych	7.10	5-1
R.Nadal	7.09	5-1
A.Murray	7.06	4-1
R.Federer	7.06	5-1
D.Ferrer	7.05	4-1
G.Dimitrov	7.03	4-1
K.Nishikori	7.02	3-1
R.BautistaAgut	6.95	3-1
F.Verdasco	6.93	1-1
R.Gasquet	6.91	2-1
M.Raonic	6.90	2-1
T.Robredo	6.90	3-1
S.Robert	6.90	3-1
M.Youzhny	6.90	1-1
J.Tsonga	6.89	3-1
V.Pospisil	6.89	2-0
F.Mayer	6.87	3-1
D.Istomin	6.87	2-1
J.DelPotro	6.86	1-1
E.Roger-Vasselin	6.86	2-1
F.Lopez	6.86	2-1
A.Dolgopolov	6.84	1-1
A.Falla	6.84	1-1
Y.Lu	6.83	1-1
I.Dodig	6.83	1-0
L.Mayer	6.82	1-1
D.Tursunov	6.82	1-1
D.Dzumhur	6.82	1-1
P.Andujar	6.82	1-1
M.Berrer	6.81	1-1
S.Querrey	6.81	2-1
J.Chardy	6.81	2-1
M.Klizan	6.80	1-1
F.Fognini	6.79	2-1
K.Anderson	6.79	3-1
V.Hanescu	6.78	1-1
G.Simon	6.78	2-1
B.Rola	6.78	1-1
V.Millot	6.77	1-1
B.Paire	6.77	2-1
G.Monfils	6.77	2-1
T.Gabashvili	6.76	2-1
A.Mannarino	6.76	1-1
N.Davydenko	6.76	1-1
N.Mahut	6.75	0-1
N.Kyrgios	6.74	1-1
J.Benneteau	6.74	1-1
J.Sock	6.74	1-1
M.Przysiezny	6.73	1-1
K.DeSchepper	6.73	1-1
A.Seppi	6.73	1-1
J.Vesely	6.73	0-1
M.Cilic	6.73	1-1
M.Ebden	6.73	1-1
J.Janowicz	6.73	2-1
T.Bellucci	6.72	0-1
L.Kubot	6.71	0-1
L.Hewitt	6.71	0-1
J.Nieminen	6.70	1-1
D.Thiem	6.70	1-1
I.Sijsling	6.70	0-1
L.Rosol	6.70	0-1
D.Lajovic	6.69	1-1
D.Brands	6.69	0-1
B.Klahn	6.68	0-1
G.Garcia-Lopez	6.68	0-1
J.Monaco	6.68	0-1
I.Karlovic	6.67	0-1
E.Gulbis	6.67	1-1
D.Young	6.67	1-1
A.Gonzalez	6.67	0-1
D.Sela	6.67	0-1
S.Devvarman	6.66	0-1
M.Matosevic	6.66	0-1
J.Thompson	6.66	0-1
A.Nedovyesov	6.65	0-1
S.Giraldo	6.65	0-1
R.Williams	6.65	0-1
T.Kokkinakis	6.65	1-1
C.Berlocq	6.65	0-1
P.Gojowczyk	6.64	0-1
J.Duckworth	6.64	0-1
B.Kavcic	6.64	0-1
L.Lacko	6.64	0-1
M.Baghdatis	6.64	0-1
J.Sousa	6.64	0-1
L.Pouille	6.63	0-1
S.Groth	6.63	0-1
T.Kamke	6.63	0-1
Z.Zhang	6.63	0-1
D.Wu	6.62	0-1
F.Dancevic	6.62	0-1
R.Harrison	6.62	0-1
D.Gimeno-Traver	6.61	0-1
F.Volandri	6.61	0-1
S.Johnson	6.61	0-1
H.Zeballos	6.61	0-1
M.Granollers	6.60	0-1
D.Kudla	6.60	0-1
R.Berankis	6.59	0-1
W.Odesnik	6.59	0-1
D.Guez	6.59	0-1
A.Ramos	6.58	0-1
B.Becker	6.58	0-1
J.HutaGalung	6.58	0-1
P.CarrenoBusta	6.58	0-1
F.Delbonis	6.57	0-1
A.Bedene	6.57	0-1
M.Llodra	6.56	0-1
J.Struff	6.54	0-1
G.Soeda	6.54	0-1
M.Kukushkin	6.51	0-1
M.Russell	6.51	0-1
S.Stakhovsky	6.51	0-1
J.Hajek	6.51	0-1
T.Smyczek	6.49	0-1
J.Wang	6.49	0-1
A.Montanes	6.46	0-1

What would the women's NTRP ratings be from the Australian Open?

Those of us that play USTA League are well aware of the NTRP rating system.  The system has levels of play all the way from 1.5 to 7.0 (leagues typically start at 2.5) where 7.0 is defined as a world class player.  The fact that they even list what a world class player would be has always piqued my interest and so I've started to collect ATP and WTA results that I can calculate NTRP ratings from.

Yes, I know these are meaningless, the pros don't care what their NTRP rating is, but I thought it would be fun to look at to see the range of ratings and if the ratings pass the smell test.

Now, this is just the first of what I hope will be many posts on the subject, and this one is using limited data, so let me explain what I've done.

I have only used results from the Australian Open women's main draw and only those results that had completed matches.  Because I have no history, I have defaulted all players to be an "average" 7.0 (6.75) but have gone through an extra iteration of calculations to have the effect of everyone starting at the same rating be diminished.

Without further adieu, the table below shows how the ladies would rate.

There is no surprise that Na Li tops the list and by a wide margin.  Cibulkova, Radwanska, Bouchard, and Ivanovic being next are also no surprise.  It is also interesting to note that the top 4 would technically have an NTRP rating of "7.5".  What is interesting is the next three.

Safarova is the 6th highest rated player despite going out in the third round.  Why you may ask?  Because she took Na Li to a third set, arguably playing her tougher than any of her other opponents.  Because the NTRP algorithm takes into account who you play, she gets more credit for this than other players do for advancing farther against weaker opponents.

Similarly, Serena and Jankovic with 3-1 records are ahead of three others with 4-1 records.

I will be continuing to work on this, and will have the men's posted tomorrow after the final.  Let me know what you think.

Name	Rating	Record
Name	Rating	Record
N.Li	7.26	7-0
D.Cibulkova	7.09	6-1
A.Radwanska	7.02	5-1
E.Bouchard	7.02	5-1
A.Ivanovic	7.00	4-1
L.Safarova	6.97	2-1
J.Jankovic	6.96	3-1
S.Williams	6.95	3-1
F.Pennetta	6.94	4-1
S.Halep	6.94	4-1
V.Azarenka	6.94	4-1
M.Sharapova	6.91	3-1
S.Stosur	6.89	2-1
C.Dellacqua	6.88	3-1
C.Wozniacki	6.87	2-1
A.Kerber	6.87	3-1
M.Keys	6.87	1-1
J.Goerges	6.86	1-1
A.Riske	6.86	2-1
Ka.Pliskova	6.86	1-1
K.Nara	6.85	2-1
A.Pavlyuchenkova	6.85	2-1
M.Niculescu	6.84	2-1
G.Muguruza	6.84	3-1
S.Lisicki	6.84	1-1
Z.Diyas	6.83	2-1
S.Stephens	6.83	3-1
G.Voskoboeva	6.81	1-1
K.Knapp	6.81	1-1
M.Puig	6.81	1-1
E.Svitolina	6.81	2-1
E.Makarova	6.80	3-1
D.Hantuchova	6.79	2-1
O.Rogowska	6.79	1-1
A.Beck	6.79	1-1
B.Jovanovski	6.78	1-1
C.McHale	6.78	1-1
B.ZahlavovaStrycova	6.78	1-1
J.Zheng	6.78	2-1
O.Govortsova	6.78	1-1
M.Rybarikova	6.78	1-1
B.Bencic	6.77	1-1
A.Cornet	6.77	1-1
K.Flipkens	6.77	1-1
M.Barthel	6.77	2-1
V.Razzano	6.76	1-1
L.Davis	6.76	2-1
I.Falconi	6.76	1-1
C.Giorgi	6.75	1-1
J.Gajdosova	6.75	0-1
L.Hradecka	6.75	1-1
V.Williams	6.75	0-1
C.SuarezNavarro	6.75	2-1
T.Majeric	6.75	0-1
L.Kumkhum	6.74	1-1
A.Kudryavtseva	6.73	1-1
A.Tomljanovic	6.73	1-1
M.Minella	6.73	1-1
I.Begu	6.73	0-1
K.Bertens	6.73	0-1
P.Kvitova	6.72	0-1
Y.Meusburger	6.72	2-1
A.Morita	6.72	1-1
F.Schiavone	6.72	0-1
H.Watson	6.71	0-1
T.Pironkova	6.71	1-1
L.Tsurenko	6.71	0-1
A.Schmiedlova	6.71	1-1
S.Peng	6.71	0-1
J.Glushko	6.71	0-1
A.VanUytvanck	6.70	0-1
T.Pereira	6.70	0-1
M.Erakovic	6.70	1-1
V.Lepchenko	6.70	1-1
V.Dolonc	6.70	1-1
S.Voegele	6.70	1-1
Y.Wickmayer	6.70	1-1
T.Babos	6.69	0-1
L.Arruabarrena	6.69	0-1
J.Larsson	6.68	0-1
K.Date-Krumm	6.68	0-1
K.Kanepi	6.68	0-1
Y.Shvedova	6.68	0-1
C.Scheepers	6.67	0-1
B.Mattek-Sands	6.67	0-1
P.Mayr-Achleitner	6.67	0-1
Y.Chan	6.67	0-1
K.Zakopalova	6.67	0-1
S.Cirstea	6.67	0-1
S.Zhang	6.66	0-1
A.Konjuh	6.66	0-1
H.Tang	6.66	0-1
R.Vinci	6.65	0-1
D.Pfizenmaier	6.64	0-1
Y.Putintseva	6.64	0-1
S.Sanders	6.63	0-1
K.Siniakova	6.63	0-1
A.Tatishvili	6.63	0-1
S.Kuznetsova	6.63	0-1
K.Mladenovic	6.63	0-1
P.Ormaechea	6.63	0-1
M.Duque-Marino	6.62	0-1
S.Errani	6.62	0-1
C.Garcia	6.62	0-1
N.Kichenok	6.62	0-1
S.Peer	6.62	0-1
S.Vickery	6.62	0-1
M.Doi	6.61	0-1
V.Zvonareva	6.60	0-1
A.Barty	6.60	0-1
E.Vesnina	6.60	0-1
J.Cepelova	6.60	0-1
A.Petkovic	6.59	0-1
Y.Duan	6.59	0-1
V.King	6.59	0-1
C.Witthoeft	6.58	0-1
A.Cadantu	6.57	0-1
S.Soler-Espinosa	6.57	0-1
M.Lucic-Baroni	6.57	0-1
S.Hsieh	6.57	0-1
A.MedinaGarrigues	6.56	0-1
D.Vekic	6.56	0-1
L.DominguezLino	6.56	0-1
K.Piter	6.55	0-1
L.Robson	6.54	0-1
P.Parmentier	6.53	0-1
P.Martic	6.47	0-1