Showing posts with label wta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wta. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for the WTA - How much higher rated is Sharapova than you?

I wrote yesterday about how the players on the ATP tour would be rated if the USTA's NTRP algorithm were to be used to calculate dynamic ratings from their matches.  Today, it is time to take a first look at the WTA players.

All the same caveats I mentioned before apply again.  And again, I scaled things so that the top-400 players would be considered 6.5 or higher.

So here are the WTA top-20 through the end of 2015.

RankNameRating
1Maria Sharapova6.96
2Garbine Muguruza6.89
3Serena Williams6.87
4Petra Kvitova6.82
5Simona Halep6.79
6Karolina Pliskova6.77
7Madison Keys6.74
8Karin Knapp6.70
9Caroline Garcia6.67
10Sabine Lisicki6.63
11Mirjana Lucic6.62
12Shuai Peng6.60
13Olga Govortsova6.60
14Louisa Chirico6.59
15Mona Barthel6.58
16Lesia Tsurenko6.58
17Denisa Allertova6.57
18Flavia Pennetta6.57
19Martina Hingis6.54
20Lucie Safarova6.53

Unlike the men where Djokovic was #1, Serena is not #1 but is instead #3 behind Sharapova and Muguruza.  This is because Serena had several closer than expected wins at the US Open and then the loss to Vinci, plus she didn't play the rest of the year while the others did play more and so had a chance to improve their ratings and not lose to Serena.  It will be interesting to see how this changes when I include the Australian Open.

The women are quite a bit closer grouped at the top than the men, although there is nearly a 0.5 drop from #1 to #20 which is similar to the men.

Stay tuned for more.

Attribution: Match data is courtesy Jeff Sackmann / Tennis Abstract.

Saturday, January 25, 2014

What would the women's NTRP ratings be from the Australian Open?

Those of us that play USTA League are well aware of the NTRP rating system.  The system has levels of play all the way from 1.5 to 7.0 (leagues typically start at 2.5) where 7.0 is defined as a world class player.  The fact that they even list what a world class player would be has always piqued my interest and so I've started to collect ATP and WTA results that I can calculate NTRP ratings from.

Yes, I know these are meaningless, the pros don't care what their NTRP rating is, but I thought it would be fun to look at to see the range of ratings and if the ratings pass the smell test.

Now, this is just the first of what I hope will be many posts on the subject, and this one is using limited data, so let me explain what I've done.

I have only used results from the Australian Open women's main draw and only those results that had completed matches.  Because I have no history, I have defaulted all players to be an "average" 7.0 (6.75) but have gone through an extra iteration of calculations to have the effect of everyone starting at the same rating be diminished.

Without further adieu, the table below shows how the ladies would rate.

There is no surprise that Na Li tops the list and by a wide margin.  Cibulkova, Radwanska, Bouchard, and Ivanovic being next are also no surprise.  It is also interesting to note that the top 4 would technically have an NTRP rating of "7.5".  What is interesting is the next three.

Safarova is the 6th highest rated player despite going out in the third round.  Why you may ask?  Because she took Na Li to a third set, arguably playing her tougher than any of her other opponents.  Because the NTRP algorithm takes into account who you play, she gets more credit for this than other players do for advancing farther against weaker opponents.

Similarly, Serena and Jankovic with 3-1 records are ahead of three others with 4-1 records.

I will be continuing to work on this, and will have the men's posted tomorrow after the final.  Let me know what you think.

NameRatingRecord
NameRatingRecord
N.Li7.267-0
D.Cibulkova7.096-1
A.Radwanska7.025-1
E.Bouchard7.025-1
A.Ivanovic7.004-1
L.Safarova6.972-1
J.Jankovic6.963-1
S.Williams6.953-1
F.Pennetta6.944-1
S.Halep6.944-1
V.Azarenka6.944-1
M.Sharapova6.913-1
S.Stosur6.892-1
C.Dellacqua6.883-1
C.Wozniacki6.872-1
A.Kerber6.873-1
M.Keys6.871-1
J.Goerges6.861-1
A.Riske6.862-1
Ka.Pliskova6.861-1
K.Nara6.852-1
A.Pavlyuchenkova6.852-1
M.Niculescu6.842-1
G.Muguruza6.843-1
S.Lisicki6.841-1
Z.Diyas6.832-1
S.Stephens6.833-1
G.Voskoboeva6.811-1
K.Knapp6.811-1
M.Puig6.811-1
E.Svitolina6.812-1
E.Makarova6.803-1
D.Hantuchova6.792-1
O.Rogowska6.791-1
A.Beck6.791-1
B.Jovanovski6.781-1
C.McHale6.781-1
B.ZahlavovaStrycova6.781-1
J.Zheng6.782-1
O.Govortsova6.781-1
M.Rybarikova6.781-1
B.Bencic6.771-1
A.Cornet6.771-1
K.Flipkens6.771-1
M.Barthel6.772-1
V.Razzano6.761-1
L.Davis6.762-1
I.Falconi6.761-1
C.Giorgi6.751-1
J.Gajdosova6.750-1
L.Hradecka6.751-1
V.Williams6.750-1
C.SuarezNavarro6.752-1
T.Majeric6.750-1
L.Kumkhum6.741-1
A.Kudryavtseva6.731-1
A.Tomljanovic6.731-1
M.Minella6.731-1
I.Begu6.730-1
K.Bertens6.730-1
P.Kvitova6.720-1
Y.Meusburger6.722-1
A.Morita6.721-1
F.Schiavone6.720-1
H.Watson6.710-1
T.Pironkova6.711-1
L.Tsurenko6.710-1
A.Schmiedlova6.711-1
S.Peng6.710-1
J.Glushko6.710-1
A.VanUytvanck6.700-1
T.Pereira6.700-1
M.Erakovic6.701-1
V.Lepchenko6.701-1
V.Dolonc6.701-1
S.Voegele6.701-1
Y.Wickmayer6.701-1
T.Babos6.690-1
L.Arruabarrena6.690-1
J.Larsson6.680-1
K.Date-Krumm6.680-1
K.Kanepi6.680-1
Y.Shvedova6.680-1
C.Scheepers6.670-1
B.Mattek-Sands6.670-1
P.Mayr-Achleitner6.670-1
Y.Chan6.670-1
K.Zakopalova6.670-1
S.Cirstea6.670-1
S.Zhang6.660-1
A.Konjuh6.660-1
H.Tang6.660-1
R.Vinci6.650-1
D.Pfizenmaier6.640-1
Y.Putintseva6.640-1
S.Sanders6.630-1
K.Siniakova6.630-1
A.Tatishvili6.630-1
S.Kuznetsova6.630-1
K.Mladenovic6.630-1
P.Ormaechea6.630-1
M.Duque-Marino6.620-1
S.Errani6.620-1
C.Garcia6.620-1
N.Kichenok6.620-1
S.Peer6.620-1
S.Vickery6.620-1
M.Doi6.610-1
V.Zvonareva6.600-1
A.Barty6.600-1
E.Vesnina6.600-1
J.Cepelova6.600-1
A.Petkovic6.590-1
Y.Duan6.590-1
V.King6.590-1
C.Witthoeft6.580-1
A.Cadantu6.570-1
S.Soler-Espinosa6.570-1
M.Lucic-Baroni6.570-1
S.Hsieh6.570-1
A.MedinaGarrigues6.560-1
D.Vekic6.560-1
L.DominguezLino6.560-1
K.Piter6.550-1
L.Robson6.540-1
P.Parmentier6.530-1
P.Martic6.470-1