2024 USTA League Nationals schedule is availalble - Only 4 weekends this year!

Calendar year 2024 is just getting started, and many sections have league play underway, but some areas had early start leagues and local league play is already over.  In both cases teams are progressing towards USTA League Nationals typically held in October and November.

For those teams aspiring to get to Nationals, knowing the schedule and locations can be useful and there is a PDF of the schedule here.

The summary is that there will be four sites for 2024:

• Barnes Tennis Center in San Diego, CA
• Scottsdale Ranch Park & Indian School Park in Scottsdale, AZ
• Surprise Tennis and Racquet Complex in Surprise, AZ
• USTA National Campus in Orlando, FL

A significant change is that Nationals don't start until mid-October, where they have typically started the first weekend of October, even starting late in September on occasion including last year.  This means just four weekends of Nationals compared with seven in 2023.  Here are the dates and events:

• October 18-20
• 18 & Over 2.5 women - Scottsdale
• 18 & Over 5.0 - Scottsdale
• 18 & Over 4.0 - Surprise
• 18 & Over 3.0 - San Diego
• 40 & Over 3.5 - Orlando
• October 25-27
• 18 & Over 3.5 - San Diego
• 40 & Over 3.0 - Scottsdale
• 40 & Over 4.0 - Orlando
• 40 & Over 4.5 - Surprise
• November 1-3
• Mixed 18 & Over 6.0 / 8.0 / 10.0 - Surprise
• Mixed 18 & Over 7.0 / 9.0 - Orlando
• 55 & Over 7.0 / 9.0 - Scottsdale
• November 8-10
• 18 & Over 4.5 - Surprise
• Mixed 40 & Over 6.0 / 8.0 - San Diego
• Mixed 40 & Over 7.0 / 9.0 - Orlando
• 55 & Over 6.0 / 8.0 - Scottsdale

We see that every location is used each week except for San Diego skipping the third weekend.  And we see events are much more compressed with four to seven events each weekend.  In 2023, there were just two to four most weekends.

This means that some players that would go to multiple Nationals will have a lot harder time doing it this year.  Someone can still go to 18 & Over and 40 & Over at the same level as there is no overlap there (but they are nearly all consecutive weekends), but the schedule for Mixed makes it nearly impossible for someone to go at two levels in the same age division.  For example, in 2023, if you were a 4.0, you could have played 7.0 and 8.0 Mixed at either 18 & Over or 40 & Over as they were on different weekends.  That is no longer possible.

The main 18 & Over and 40 & Over Adult divisions are typically first and that remains the case, but are compressed down into nearly just two weekends (18 & Over 4.5 oddly is now the last weekend) instead of the typical four to five weekends.

Why was this done?  I'm not sure, but can guess the following contributed:

• USTA staff having to cover seven consecutive weekends of Nationals is a lot.
• Surprise was used for six consecutive weekends last year and may have wanted a reduced commitment.
• The USTA may have wanted to spread the Nationals experience around by reducing the ability for the same players to go to many events.
• The USTA wanted Orlando used every weekend of Nationals and it is hard to do so early in October with the chance of hurricanes.
• The USTA wanted to make it harder on me to get all my simulations and predictions done each weekend (just kidding).

Seriously, this will make it harder to follow along with many more events going on simultaneously.  I certainly will be busier if I try to pull of previews, simulations, and updates for all the events.

What do you think of this change?  Were Nationals too drawn out before and getting it all done in four weeks is better?  Or did you prefer the prior schedule?

It is 2024! What is going on with the 40 & Over format?

For my first post of 2024, I thought I'd take a look at how things are playing out with the court format in the 40 & Over division.

For those paying close attention or that read my post on the subject, you know that the National format for 40 & Over for 2024 is changing back to a 5-court format after several years of a 4-court format.  The 4-court format had some challenges, dealing with 2-2 ties for one, and was not very popular with many players, so the change back to 5-courts is welcome.

However, the change back did not just revert to the prior 2-singles / 3-doubles format, but instead is a 1-singles / 4-doubles format.  This is perhaps good for getting players matches, 9 line-up spots instead of 8, but doesn't address those wanting to play more singles.

Now, this change may not really be a change where you are.  Sections/districts/areas have always had the ability to run local leagues using alternate formats, and many do, and some planned to stick with 4-court or other formats for 2024.  It is still very early in 2024, but I thought I'd take an early look at what formats are being used.

Keep in mind that some leagues haven't started yet and I'm only looking at those that have started or at least have schedules up.  Also keep in mind that a given league may have multiple formats as sometimes lower or higher level flights will use a 3-court format to require fewer players.

With that said, as of today, there are 104 leagues that have flights continuing to use the 1-singles / 3-doubles format and just 42 that are using the National 1-singles / 4-doubles format.  There are even 9 choosing to use 2-singles / 3-doubles.  Still the 4-court format is far and away the most common.

And this isn't something where different sections have standardized on a format.  As of right now, only Eastern is using a single format (1-singles / 3- doubles) and there are others not using 1-singles / 4-doubles at all including Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Midwest, Northern California, Pacific Northwest, Southern California, and Southwest, but all other than Eastern are using multiple formats.

I think this is an indication that the change in the regulations to a 4-court format was done late enough that many areas had already planned on continuing the format from 2023, or facilities prefer to not dedicate as many courts to USTA play keeping more available for other use.

What this means to players and teams is that as you progress through the season and advance in playoffs, the format used may change.  Local playoffs will likely use what was used in local league play, but come Districts, States, or Sectionals, you may need to field a line-up requiring more players, and certainly those that go to Nationals will have to use the 1-singles / 4-doubles format.  Keep that in mind as you recruiting players and get them matches to be qualified for post-season play.

What are you seeing in your area?  What reason have you been given for the format being used?

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Distribution of players across levels by gender

2023 year-end ratings were published a few days ago and I've started doing my stats with bump rates by section and gender, bump rates by level and gender, strange bumps, and player counts with year-end ratings.  Next up, distribution of players by level and gender.

This analysis looks at the players with year-end C ratings for 2023 and for comparison 2022.  The bar represents the number of players and the annotation is what percentage that number is of the total.

First up, players by level overall.

We see the standard "normal" distribution with just some small changes from last year.  There was some growth in raw numbers at lower levels, 2.5 thru 3.5, but the 4.0 and 4.5 levels shrunk slightly.  However, while there were more 3.5s in 2023, the percentage that are 3.5s went down slightly due to the significant growth of 3.0s.

Since we saw that generally speaking more players are bumped up than down, this is likely due to new players coming in at lower levels and getting year-end ratings while the higher levels perhaps have some players no longer playing USTA League.  I will have to do some analysis on this to see if that is the case.

Next, the distribution of women by level.

Similar story here, but the increased number of 3.0s was a bit larger and the 3.5s slightly less.

Last, the distribution of men by level.

The men had noticeably more 3.0s and 3.5s, but from a percentile distribution standpoint, over 1% fewer 4.0s and nearly 1% fewer 4.5s.

Stay tuned for more!

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Are the number of players with ratings going up or down?

Earlier this year, I wrote about the USTA's press release on tennis growth and in that post I introduced a new chart showing participation based on the number of players who receive year-end ratings.  Now that ratings are out, I can add 2023 to the mix.

Here is the chart showing the number of players with year-end ratings since 2012.

We see the metric has gone up slightly from 2022 (231K to 238K), it is still lower than all the other years from 2012 to 2021.

There are a number of possible reasons the number has gone up including:

• We are still in the post-COVID recovery period where players continue to come back to league play
• The COVID tennis boom we heard about from the TIA and USTA is finally resulting in some of those new players joining league play
• Some sections with secondary leagues that didn't count for ratings in the past are now counting these leagues, so players that play in them are now getting year-end ratings.

The bulk of the increase from 2022 is with C rated players which are up around 6K on their own.

2024 will be interesting to see where we end up!

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - What strange or unexpected bumps were there?

2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings are out and I've taken a look at bump rates by section and by level, and before slicing the data more, I thought I'd take a step back and just look for edge case bumps we don't see often or appear to be glitches in the system.

First up, the double bump.  Bumps up and down happen, in typical years about 15% of players are bumped, around 9% go up and 6% go down.  It varies from year to year but that is roughly what you can expect.  Bumps up or down just one level are the most common of course, but do double bumps happen?  If so, how often?

For bumps up, I show 29 players whose 2023 year-end C rating was at least 1.0 higher than their C rating they were using for 2023.  So it does happen, but not a lot.  What about a triple bump up?  I found one, sort of, but it was actually a glitch (see below).

For bumps down, I only found one player that has this, sort of.  I say sort of because they were a 2022 year-end 4.5C, but were able to appeal down to 4.0, and at 2023 year-end received a 3.5C.  So they were a double bump down, but "benefited" from appealing down and being able to play 4.0, although they still played 4.5 and only played one Tri-Level match on the 4.0 court.  To be honest, the 3.5C doesn't appear warranted, but the USTA gave it to them.

There is always interesting year-end ratings around some players that go to Nationals.  Here are a few I've seen that are a little baffling:

1. A team finishes 3rd at Nationals, and no one is bumped up other than a player who went 4-5 on the year.  Others on the roster won 70+% of their matches on the year including 3-0, 4-1 or 5-1 at Nationals and weren't bumped up.
2. A 5.5C takes time off and comes back as a 5.0S and goes 9-0 including 4-0 at Nationals and gets a 4.5C.

For what it is worth, my ratings don't agree with either of the above.

How about some bumps that appear to be glitches or bugs or due to something other than the algorithm?

• A 5.0C takes time off and comes back as a 5.0S and goes 1-2 playing 5.0.  What is their year-end rating?  2.5C!  Clearly something amiss here, I'm guessing it will be fixed and changed at some point, and in fact as I just checked as I write this it has been, so good on the USTA for fixing it.  I saw a few more similar to this that have also been fixed.
• A 3.5S played in 2022 and was DQ'd to 4.0 mid-year, but somehow got a 2.5C year-end rating.  Clearly a glitch and it was fixed, but not for months it seems so the 4.0C they got this year looked like a triple bump but wasn't once the fixed 4.0C from last year was recorded.
• A 4.5S plays only Mixed, loses two matches early, then goes 14-1 and gets an M rating as expected, but it is a 4.0M!  My ratings had them closer to a 5.0 than a 4.0.
• A 5.0T self-rates as a 5.0 and plays 5.0, does go 0-3, but ends up as a 3.5C!

For some of these that are glitches, the USTA does correct them as I note so that is good.  But a few are outstanding and make one scratch their head.

What crazy bumps have you seen?

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Bump rates by level and gender

The 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings have been out for just over a day now and I started doing analysis with bump rates by section and gender, now on to slicing it another way, by level and gender.

First, here are the bump rates just by level.

This isn't at all unexpected, lower levels have more bump ups, higher levels have more bump downs.

Breaking it out by gender, first, the women.

The women have slightly more bumps down as the level gets higher, but looks very similar to the general trends.

And here is how the men look.

After seeing the women, as you might expect, much the same, just with fewer bumps down as the level goes up.

Stay tuned for more!

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Section bump rates by gender

The USTA published 2023 year-end NTRP ratings about 24 hours ago, so that means it is time to start doing some analysis to see what we can learn.

To start, we'll look at bump rates overall and by section including by gender.  In all the charts below, it is showing the percentage of players bumped down (purple) or up (green).

First, the overall rates were:

• Stayed - 84.9%
• Bumped up - 9.5%
• Bumped down - 5.6%

This is very consistent with most years.  For the women:

• Stayed - 84.5%
• Bumped up - 9.7%
• Bumped down - 5.7%

And then men:

• Stayed - 85.6%
• Bumped up - 9.1%
• Bumped down - 5.3%

Not a lot of variation, the men are bumped up slightly less than the women, the bump down percentages are about the same.  The number that stayed the same level is down about 1% point from last year.

Here are the overall bump rates by section.

Last year was pretty consistent across sections, but this year is even more so.  Every section had more bumps up than down, between 8 and 10% bumps up and around 5% bumps down.  No section stands out having an abnormally high number of bumps up.  Generally speaking, there were no radical changes to adjustments.

Taking a look at the same stats but by gender, here are the women.

Nothing is remarkably different here.  NorCal does get over 11% bumps up, but still pretty consistent.

And the men.

Texas is the only one over 9% at around 11% and some other variation, but nothing more significant as far as radical changes between sections.

Stay tuned for more.