Saturday, October 31, 2015

2015 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Women Nationals semi-finals prediction

The semi-finals are set for the 40 & over 4.0 Women at the 2015 USTA League Nationals.

Northern California won a loaded flight 1 easily at 4-0 and 15-5 on courts, with 3 teams tied at 2-2 behind them.

Mid-Atlantic won flight 2 at 3-0 and 10-5 over Missouri Valley at 2-1 and 9-6.

Southern California won flight 3 at 3-0 and 11-5 over a 2-1 and 10-4 Florida.

And New England won flight 4 at 3-0 and 11-4 over a 2-1 and 9-6 Pacific Northwest.

With the matches from the flight taken into account, the top-8 average ratings say Northern Cal is an ever so flight favorite over Southern Cal, and New England is a similarly slight favorite over over Mid-Atlantic.  The final has Northern Cal a slightly larger favorite to beat New England.

We'll find out how it ends up tomorrow!

2015 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Men Nationals semi-finals prediction

The semi-finals are set for the 40 & over 4.0 Men at the 2015 USTA League Nationals.

Texas won flight 5 as the flight favorite there going 4-0 and 17-3 on courts, having it wrapped up before their last match.

Middle States won flight 6 going 3-0 and 12-3 on courts, almost having it wrapped up before their last match.

New England won a very tight flight 7 at 2-1 and 8-7 on courts beating out Southern Cal who was also 2-1 and 7-8 on courts.

Last, Intermountain, the favorite in their flight won flight 8 comfortably at 3-0 and 10-5.

With the results of the flight play included, Texas is favored over New England and Intermountain over Middle States, with Texas the pick to win it all.  We'll see tomorrow!

Friday, October 30, 2015

Day one of 40+ 4.0 USTA League Nationals is in the books

The first day of the last weekend of USTA League Adult Nationals is complete.

The 40+ 4.0 Women flights sees Northern Cal and Midwest leading flight 1 at 2-0.  They play tomorrow and the winner will likely win the flight.

Mid-Atlantic leads flight 2 at 2-0 and they play 0-2 Hawaii tomorrow so any win gets them to the semis, but a loss and one of the 1-1 teams will advance.

Flight 3 is led by Northern and Southern Cal, both at 1-0, and flight 4 is led with PNW and New England at 1-0.  There is a lot of tennis to go in each of these flights.

The 40+ 4.0 Men flights has Texas leading flight 5 at 2-0, but with 2 matches to play tomorrow, several teams still in it.

Middle States leads flight 6 at 2-0 and almost has it wrapped up, needing just 2 courts to advance to the semis.

Flight 7 is led by Southern Cal, but they likely need a win to advance.

And flight 8 is led by Intermountain, they get to play 0-2 Southwest in their match tomorrow to get to the semis.

Good luck to all!

The 2015 USTA League year is almost over, NTRP ratings will soon be calculated

The last weekend of USTA League Adult Nationals completes this weekend, and with that, the year ends for Adult NTRP rating purposes.  So what exactly does that mean?  It is all a bit confusing the way the USTA does it, but here is a hopefully concise explanation.

Year-end ratings are generally released the week after Thanksgiving, so they aren't really through calendar year-end, but they are still given a rating date of 12/31.  So what is the "year" they are calculated for?

Generally the year runs from November thru October, but more precisely the league year typically ends when the last Adult League Nationals finishes.  This makes sense, you'd want the matches from Nationals to count!  But this also means that matches played in other leagues that count on or before that cut-off date will also count.  This is true even if it is an early start league for the following year.

While this may seem strange that a "2016" league will count for your 2015 year-end rating, this also makes sense because the matches are played during the 2015 league year, and since some early start leagues start back in the late Spring and early Summer, it would be stranger to be including matches from May 2015 in your 2016 year-end rating.

So why, if the cut-off date is this Sunday November 1st, do ratings not come out for another 4+ weeks?  My guess is that the USTA uses this time to do all the benchmark and other year-end calculations and review and determination of if any adjustments will be made.

Note that Mixed Nationals are still to be played November 13-15 and 20-22, so while I have not confirmed this, I think the cut-off for Mixed-exclusive ratings would be November 22nd.  That means the USTA only has a week or so to turn around "M" ratings, but with the vast majority of players playing Adult league, there aren't that many M-rated players so they are able to do it.

Of course, this leads to players being in this limbo state where the matches are all done and there is nothing they can do to influence their rating, but they have to wait to find out what it is.  With many leagues start right away in January, players and captains would like to know sooner than December what their NTRP level will be so they can form teams and not be rushed to do it all during the holidays.

For those that are impatient and wanting to plan, or just curious what their rating is or how their rating has changed match by match, I can generate Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports.  These reports show what I estimate your dynamic NTRP rating to be, but also show a bevy of statistics for your 2015 season including a chart showing match by match how each match rated and affected your dynamic rating, plus you get a partner report showing how your matches rated when playing with your different doubles partners.


And while the USTA does not calculate separate singles and doubles ratings, my reports will show you how you've done in both, singles matches in green and doubles matches in blue, so you can see which you do better in.

And if you were fortunate to go to and play at Nationals this year, my reports always include all relevant matches played including playoff matches, so you can see how those rate and the impact they have on your dynamic rating.  Each phase of playoffs is noted in the chart as well, D for Districts, S for Sectionals, and N for Nationals as you can see above.

If you are interested in getting a report, contact me and I can generate a report for you or answer any questions you might have.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 4.0 Men Preview

The last weekend of Adult Nationals is October 30-November 1 and has the 40 & over division 4.0 level playing.  Here is a preview of the 4.0 Men.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

The highest top-8 average is 4.18 and the lowest is 3.86.

Flight 5 may be the toughest with Caribbean, Eastern, Florida, Midwest, and Texas comprising the #2, #3, #10, #11, and #15 teams.

Flight 8 with Intermountain, Northern California, Southern, and Southwest is pretty tough with the #1, #5, #7, and #14 teams.

Flight 6 is not far behind with Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, and Pacific Northwest comprising the #4, #8, #9, and #13 teams.

Flight 7 has Missouri Valley, New England, Northern, and Southern California comprising the #6, #12, #16, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 4.0 Women Preview

The last weekend of Adult Nationals is October 30-November 1 and has the 40 & over division 4.0 level playing.  Here is a preview of the 4.0 Women.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

The top team has a top-8 average of 4.11 while the lowest rated team is at 3.84.

Flight 4 appears to be the toughest with Caribbean, Eastern, New England, and Pacific Northwest comprising the #1, #2, #5, and #16 teams.

Flight 1 is not far behind with Intermountain, Midwest, Northern California, Southern, and Texas comprising the #3, #6, #8, #9, and #15 teams.  With some traditionally strong sections, this could be very tough to advance out of.

Flight 2 with Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, and Missouri Valley comprises the #4, #11, #12, and #13 teams.

Last, flight 3 has Florida, Northern, Southern California, and Southwest comprising the #7, #10, #14, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Congratulations to this weekend's 2015 USTA League Nationals Champions - 40+ 3.5 and 4.5+ and 55+ 6.0 and 8.0

The 2015 USTA League Nationals continued this weekend with play in the 40 & over and 55 & over divisions.

The 40 & over 3.5 Women was won by Texas with a 3-2 win over Pacific Northwest.

The 40 & over 3.5 Men had a very close final with 4 matches going to match tie-breaks and Caribbean winning 3 of them to get the 3-2 win over Pacific Northwest.

Florida won the 40 & over 4.5+ Women with a 3-2 win over Hawaii, all 3 wins in straight sets.

The Men's 40 & over 4.5+ was won by Mid-Atlantic with a 5-0 drubbing of Intermountain, all in straight sets!

The 55 & over 6.0 Women was won by Florida over Pacific Northwest 3-0.

The 55 & over 6.0 Men was won by Northern over Northern Cal 2-1, a win for each team going to a match tie-break.

Southern Cal on the 55 & over 8.0 Women beating Pacific Northwest 2-1.

And Southern beat Florida in the 55 & over 8.0 Men 2-1.

A full summary of the results from this weekend and the past 2 weeks can be seen here.