Monday, March 4, 2013

Working on new USTA League tennis reports - Captains will want to look!

Most folks that read my blog know that I have been creating Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports for a little while now.  See this report for an example of what is included in it.

With the Adult 18+ and 40+ leagues in full swing here in Seattle now, I've been playing with some other team based reports that folks might find useful.  I know the captains on my two teams do.  See the end of this entry for details on how to get the reports for your team or sub-flight.

The first is a summary report for a team showing each players record, current Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating, and a summary of what court(s) they've played in matches.  Here is an example.

NameLevelWLRatingCourts
Player14.0303.9187411D-3
Player24.0203.6271001D-2
Player33.5203.5116462D-1 3D-1
Player44.0203.7800691S-2
Player54.0103.7267472S-1
Player64.0103.7760941D-1
Player74.0103.7701412D-1
Player84.0213.8394441S-1 2D-1 3D-1
Player94.0113.6512052D-2
Player103.5113.5100002D-1 3D-1
Player114.0113.4393383D-2
Player123.5013.5100003D-1
Player134.0013.5594202S-1
Player144.0013.3930472S-1
Player154.0003.200290
Player164.0003.782443
Player174.0003.342165

This report can be useful when looking at your own team, but particularly valuable when looking at an upcoming opponent as it makes it easy to see the strength of each player, their record, and what court they usually play.

The second report is a Head-to-Head comparison, looking at two team's rosters and displaying all the matches/results between the players.  Here is an example, although this one is just partial as they can get quite long if there is a lot of history between the players.

Team Roster Head-to-Head

PlayerDateFlightSub-FlightCourtScoreResult
Erik Hummer
Kyle Quinn Faino2011-04-244.0 MenA3D5,7,7,6,1,0W
Chris Hall
Vasu Reddy2011-02-263.5 MenC1D6,4,6,2W
Rick Eberhardt2011-02-263.5 MenC1D6,4,6,2W
Tyler Sims
Rick Eberhardt2010-04-173.5 MenA1D6,2,7,5W
This report gives a captain an easy look at how his roster has done against another in the past including the court and score.

Since these are brand new reports, I haven't established pricing yet but will offer them on a one-time basis or give discounts for repeating requests for a full sub-flight.  If interested, contact me.

To start, I'm only doing these reports for Northwest Washington in the PNW section, but will be expanding the districts/sections I can do reports for and those who give feedback or make requests will get their areas added first, so let me here from you.  Comments here or e-mail is welcome.

Let me know what you think!

Update: The team report format and content has been updated, example here.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Requests for Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports Still Coming In, Mid-Season Reports Available

The USTA publishes their end of year NTRP ratings in late-November/early-December and I had an influx of requests for my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports as people were curious about what their rating might be or looking for an explanation for why their rating was what it was.  And while many adult leagues have already started in many areas of the country, I'm still getting these requests and I'm still generating the reports.

So if you are still interested in knowing more details about your rating and what your rating did throughout the year, feel free to contact me.  I can generally create a report for players in any section as long as you've played enough matches in the relevant leagues.

But another report I'm now generating is a mid-season report.  I've had quite a few requests by people wanting to know how their rating has changed after several matches to get an idea of if it is going up or down, or to get an idea of how far they are away from potentially being bumped up or down.  I can also do these reports for most any section, so contact me for details.

And for reference, here is an example of a report or click here to see one too.

Jane Doe
Current NTRP: 4.5
Estimated DNTRP: 4.47
Match Record: 12-2
Sets Won-Lost: 24-5
Games Won-Lost: 155-72
Best Match Result: 4.92 on 2012-08-25
Worst Match Result: 3.80 on 2012-06-26
Highest Estimated DNTRP: 4.55 on 2012-09-19
Lowest Estimated DNTRP: 4.28 on 2012-06-26

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Superbowl Preview - 49ers vs Ravens

Here is a preview of the Superbowl using my computer's ratings.

San Francisco is rated #1 by my computer so they are the pick to win the game on a neutral field.  But let's look deeper.

First, here is the 49ers performance chart.



This shows that in the majority of their games, they have been quite consistent, right around the low 90s with a few games a bit higher and a few a bit lower.  Their losses and tie appear as aberrations but the fact they happened means one could happen again.  To be fair though, the 2 losses in the last 9 games were both on the road and they just had a great road result in their last game.

If there is a "good" and "bad" 49er team, in their wins they averaged 93.1 rating points while in their losses they averaged 73.7.  And if you look at just their last 4 wins they average a slightly higher 93.7.

Here is Baltimore's chart.



They haven't had quite as clear a disparity between good and bad, with some fairly consistent results in their wins in the mid to upper 80s through much of the season, then some poor results in losses, but then have been very strong in the playoffs.  And you might throw out the Bengals game as meaningless so they've really had 4 strong results in a row recently.

If we look at just Baltimore's last 4 wins, they average 95.7.

So, looking at the entirety of the season, my computer would pick the 49ers by 3.  With Vegas having the line originally at 5 and closer to 3.5 or 4 now, that would make the pick the Ravens to cover.

And if you assume the teams are both going to show up with their best games, one could make the argument that the Ravens best is actually a bit better than the 49ers, around 2 points, so that would seem to reinforce the pick of the Ravens plus the points and even give hope to those that are picking the upset.

Here is hoping for an exciting and competitive game.

Week 20 NFL Ratings and Rankings - San Francisco moves to #1

The ratings after week 20 are now posted and listed below as well.

San Francisco moves to #2 while New England drops to #3 after the conference championship games.  Baltimore moves up two spots to #6 but still trails.

This means the computer likes the 49ers in the Superbowl, more to come.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1San Francisco87.86913-4-182.266+2, +0.110
2Seattle87.78512-682.296+0, -0.178
3New England87.34013-580.332-2, -1.549
4Denver87.32713-479.384+0, +0.170
5Green Bay85.60712-681.545+0, -0.079
6Baltimore84.89413-680.901+3, +1.277
7Atlanta84.70514-480.013-1, -0.341
8Chicago83.81510-681.106-1, -0.107
9NY Giants83.7949-781.142-1, +0.170
10Houston83.33213-580.187+0, -0.211
11Minnesota83.15010-781.699+0, -0.103
12Washington82.67110-780.964+0, +0.133
13Cincinnati82.48410-779.498+0, +0.250
14Carolina81.4217-980.815+1, +0.012
15St Louis81.4157-8-182.622-1, -0.225
16Pittsburgh80.6148-879.427+1, +0.287
17New Orleans80.4927-981.048-1, +0.025
18Tampa Bay80.1747-980.531+0, -0.009
19Dallas80.1718-881.478+0, +0.125
20Miami79.4287-980.196+0, -0.336
21San Diego78.9827-979.124+1, +0.127
22Indianapolis78.84111-679.134-1, -0.126
23Arizona78.3555-1182.739+0, -0.211
24Buffalo77.3946-1079.905+0, -0.289
25Detroit77.3534-1281.727+0, -0.142
26NY Jets77.0006-1080.737+0, -0.272
27Cleveland76.5255-1180.182+0, +0.246
28Tennessee75.3286-1079.808+0, -0.199
29Philadelphia73.9014-1281.268+0, +0.126
30Oakland73.3024-1279.712+0, +0.132
31Jacksonville70.9522-1480.117+0, -0.207
32Kansas City70.5452-1480.423+0, +0.106

Monday, January 14, 2013

NFL Conference Championship Performance Charts

As a quick way to visually see how the final 4 teams have performed, here are their performance charts.



New England is #1 for a reason, they've had a lot of good results.  I've had a few folks say they think even so, they are underrated, and what is holding them back are a few bad results.  The Arizona and early season Baltimore loss don't count that much now, but the 49ers loss and narrow win over Jacksonville are holding them back a bit now.  If you don't include those considering them aberrations  their last 5 games have all been in the 90-100 range, very strong.



Baltimore had a tough patch late in the year, but were banged up a bit and perhaps the Cincinnati game didn't mean much to them.  Ignoring that game, 3 of their last 4 have been in the 90-97 range, also quite strong.



Atlanta won a lot, but played a weaker schedule.  In fact, they've only had a few results over 90 late in the year, their best again the Giants.  They certainly don't look as strong as the AFC teams unless they can repeat their peak form.



The 49ers have also been a bit up and down, but like the AFC teams their highs have been in the 90-100 range and they've had a bunch.  They look a bit stronger in general than Atlanta and are ranked higher, but they have to go on the road.

NFL Week 19 Ratings and Rankings - New England stretches their lead

The ratings after week 19 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England stays #1 and Seattle stays #2, but the gap widens.  The 49ers and Broncos swap spots right behind them.

Seattle loses a few ratings points but stays #2 because they were predicted to have a narrow (less than 1 point, computer almost called it perfect) win and lost by 2, so they were rated pretty close to correct.  For the same reason, Atlanta's rating improves slightly but they stay #6 even though Green Bay at #5 did lose ratings points, just not enough.

Baltimore does move up 2 spots after their road win but will still be an underdog to the Patriots.  Atlanta and San Francisco will be a very close prediction.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1New England88.88913-480.346+0, +0.333
2Seattle87.96312-682.496+0, -0.172
3San Francisco87.75912-4-182.181+1, +0.578
4Denver87.15713-479.267-1, -0.929
5Green Bay85.68612-681.643+0, -0.692
6Atlanta85.04614-379.691+0, +0.163
7Chicago83.92210-681.215+0, -0.131
8NY Giants83.6249-780.983+1, +0.051
9Baltimore83.61712-680.324+2, +0.698
10Houston83.54313-580.398-2, -0.349
11Minnesota83.25310-781.808-1, -0.191
12Washington82.53810-780.842+0, +0.035
13Cincinnati82.23410-779.266+0, +0.018
14St Louis81.6407-8-182.829+0, -0.002
15Carolina81.4097-980.805+0, -0.087
16New Orleans80.4677-981.020+0, -0.039
17Pittsburgh80.3278-879.166+0, +0.056
18Tampa Bay80.1837-980.521+0, -0.058
19Dallas80.0468-881.332+0, +0.031
20Miami79.7647-980.513+0, +0.037
21Indianapolis78.96711-679.280+0, -0.053
22San Diego78.8557-978.993+0, -0.060
23Arizona78.5665-1182.969+0, +0.017
24Buffalo77.6836-1080.231+0, +0.022
25Detroit77.4954-1281.854+0, -0.119
26NY Jets77.2726-1081.061+0, +0.023
27Cleveland76.2795-1179.913+0, +0.020
28Tennessee75.5276-1080.030+0, -0.105
29Philadelphia73.7754-1281.127+0, +0.044
30Oakland73.1704-1279.587+0, -0.071
31Jacksonville71.1592-1480.340+0, -0.076
32Kansas City70.4392-1480.286+0, -0.078

Monday, January 7, 2013

College Football Week 20 and Final Ratings and Rankings - Alabama #1

This week's and the season's final ratings and rankings are now posted.

Alabama moves to #1 after swapping it back and forth with Oregon during the bowl season with their dominating win over Notre Dame.  They aren't that far ahead of Oregon, less than 0.7 ratings points, but they finish #1 never the less.

The SEC is well represented after that with Texas A&M, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina in spots 3 thru 6 and LSU at #9.  The Pac-12 is represented with 2 teams with Stanford at #10 joining Oregon.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Alabama93.56413-173.779+1, +2.262
2Oregon92.88612-172.047-1, -0.111
3Texas A&M89.93011-274.817+0, +0.574
4Georgia88.23512-274.265+0, +0.684
5Florida86.63011-276.239+1, +0.327
6South Carolina86.29811-274.580+1, +0.399
7Kansas St85.66911-274.441+1, -0.075
8Notre Dame85.25212-174.985-3, -1.508
9LSU84.87910-374.538+0, +0.700
10Stanford83.73312-275.418+0, -0.237
11Ohio State83.41312-069.739+0, +0.049
12Florida St82.77812-266.569+0, -0.045
13Utah St82.70811-265.806+0, -0.099
14Oklahoma82.60710-374.066+0, -0.128
15Oregon St81.9329-474.181+0, -0.112
16Clemson81.75711-269.976+1, +0.110
17Oklahoma St81.7108-571.373-1, -0.043
18Baylor80.4638-575.068+0, -0.163
19Wisconsin80.0488-673.061+0, +0.016
20Michigan79.6958-573.560+0, +0.142
21Texas79.5959-474.879+0, +0.049
22Vanderbilt79.3059-470.711+2, +0.479
23Brigham Young79.2568-569.171-1, -0.194
24Mississippi78.9817-675.080+6, +1.775
25Southern Cal78.9037-674.665-2, -0.270