Requests for Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports Still Coming In, Mid-Season Reports Available

The USTA publishes their end of year NTRP ratings in late-November/early-December and I had an influx of requests for my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports as people were curious about what their rating might be or looking for an explanation for why their rating was what it was.  And while many adult leagues have already started in many areas of the country, I'm still getting these requests and I'm still generating the reports.

So if you are still interested in knowing more details about your rating and what your rating did throughout the year, feel free to contact me.  I can generally create a report for players in any section as long as you've played enough matches in the relevant leagues.

But another report I'm now generating is a mid-season report.  I've had quite a few requests by people wanting to know how their rating has changed after several matches to get an idea of if it is going up or down, or to get an idea of how far they are away from potentially being bumped up or down.  I can also do these reports for most any section, so contact me for details.

And for reference, here is an example of a report or click here to see one too.

Jane Doe
Current NTRP: 4.5
Estimated DNTRP: 4.47
Match Record: 12-2
Sets Won-Lost: 24-5
Games Won-Lost: 155-72
Best Match Result: 4.92 on 2012-08-25
Worst Match Result: 3.80 on 2012-06-26
Highest Estimated DNTRP: 4.55 on 2012-09-19
Lowest Estimated DNTRP: 4.28 on 2012-06-26

Superbowl Preview - 49ers vs Ravens

Here is a preview of the Superbowl using my computer's ratings.

San Francisco is rated #1 by my computer so they are the pick to win the game on a neutral field.  But let's look deeper.

First, here is the 49ers performance chart.



This shows that in the majority of their games, they have been quite consistent, right around the low 90s with a few games a bit higher and a few a bit lower.  Their losses and tie appear as aberrations but the fact they happened means one could happen again.  To be fair though, the 2 losses in the last 9 games were both on the road and they just had a great road result in their last game.

If there is a "good" and "bad" 49er team, in their wins they averaged 93.1 rating points while in their losses they averaged 73.7.  And if you look at just their last 4 wins they average a slightly higher 93.7.

Here is Baltimore's chart.



They haven't had quite as clear a disparity between good and bad, with some fairly consistent results in their wins in the mid to upper 80s through much of the season, then some poor results in losses, but then have been very strong in the playoffs.  And you might throw out the Bengals game as meaningless so they've really had 4 strong results in a row recently.

If we look at just Baltimore's last 4 wins, they average 95.7.

So, looking at the entirety of the season, my computer would pick the 49ers by 3.  With Vegas having the line originally at 5 and closer to 3.5 or 4 now, that would make the pick the Ravens to cover.

And if you assume the teams are both going to show up with their best games, one could make the argument that the Ravens best is actually a bit better than the 49ers, around 2 points, so that would seem to reinforce the pick of the Ravens plus the points and even give hope to those that are picking the upset.

Here is hoping for an exciting and competitive game.

Week 20 NFL Ratings and Rankings - San Francisco moves to #1

The ratings after week 20 are now posted and listed below as well.

San Francisco moves to #2 while New England drops to #3 after the conference championship games.  Baltimore moves up two spots to #6 but still trails.

This means the computer likes the 49ers in the Superbowl, more to come.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	San Francisco	87.869	13-4-1	82.266	+2, +0.110
2	Seattle	87.785	12-6	82.296	+0, -0.178
3	New England	87.340	13-5	80.332	-2, -1.549
4	Denver	87.327	13-4	79.384	+0, +0.170
5	Green Bay	85.607	12-6	81.545	+0, -0.079
6	Baltimore	84.894	13-6	80.901	+3, +1.277
7	Atlanta	84.705	14-4	80.013	-1, -0.341
8	Chicago	83.815	10-6	81.106	-1, -0.107
9	NY Giants	83.794	9-7	81.142	-1, +0.170
10	Houston	83.332	13-5	80.187	+0, -0.211
11	Minnesota	83.150	10-7	81.699	+0, -0.103
12	Washington	82.671	10-7	80.964	+0, +0.133
13	Cincinnati	82.484	10-7	79.498	+0, +0.250
14	Carolina	81.421	7-9	80.815	+1, +0.012
15	St Louis	81.415	7-8-1	82.622	-1, -0.225
16	Pittsburgh	80.614	8-8	79.427	+1, +0.287
17	New Orleans	80.492	7-9	81.048	-1, +0.025
18	Tampa Bay	80.174	7-9	80.531	+0, -0.009
19	Dallas	80.171	8-8	81.478	+0, +0.125
20	Miami	79.428	7-9	80.196	+0, -0.336
21	San Diego	78.982	7-9	79.124	+1, +0.127
22	Indianapolis	78.841	11-6	79.134	-1, -0.126
23	Arizona	78.355	5-11	82.739	+0, -0.211
24	Buffalo	77.394	6-10	79.905	+0, -0.289
25	Detroit	77.353	4-12	81.727	+0, -0.142
26	NY Jets	77.000	6-10	80.737	+0, -0.272
27	Cleveland	76.525	5-11	80.182	+0, +0.246
28	Tennessee	75.328	6-10	79.808	+0, -0.199
29	Philadelphia	73.901	4-12	81.268	+0, +0.126
30	Oakland	73.302	4-12	79.712	+0, +0.132
31	Jacksonville	70.952	2-14	80.117	+0, -0.207
32	Kansas City	70.545	2-14	80.423	+0, +0.106

NFL Conference Championship Performance Charts

As a quick way to visually see how the final 4 teams have performed, here are their performance charts.



New England is #1 for a reason, they've had a lot of good results.  I've had a few folks say they think even so, they are underrated, and what is holding them back are a few bad results.  The Arizona and early season Baltimore loss don't count that much now, but the 49ers loss and narrow win over Jacksonville are holding them back a bit now.  If you don't include those considering them aberrations  their last 5 games have all been in the 90-100 range, very strong.



Baltimore had a tough patch late in the year, but were banged up a bit and perhaps the Cincinnati game didn't mean much to them.  Ignoring that game, 3 of their last 4 have been in the 90-97 range, also quite strong.



Atlanta won a lot, but played a weaker schedule.  In fact, they've only had a few results over 90 late in the year, their best again the Giants.  They certainly don't look as strong as the AFC teams unless they can repeat their peak form.



The 49ers have also been a bit up and down, but like the AFC teams their highs have been in the 90-100 range and they've had a bunch.  They look a bit stronger in general than Atlanta and are ranked higher, but they have to go on the road.

NFL Week 19 Ratings and Rankings - New England stretches their lead

The ratings after week 19 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England stays #1 and Seattle stays #2, but the gap widens.  The 49ers and Broncos swap spots right behind them.

Seattle loses a few ratings points but stays #2 because they were predicted to have a narrow (less than 1 point, computer almost called it perfect) win and lost by 2, so they were rated pretty close to correct.  For the same reason, Atlanta's rating improves slightly but they stay #6 even though Green Bay at #5 did lose ratings points, just not enough.

Baltimore does move up 2 spots after their road win but will still be an underdog to the Patriots.  Atlanta and San Francisco will be a very close prediction.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	88.889	13-4	80.346	+0, +0.333
2	Seattle	87.963	12-6	82.496	+0, -0.172
3	San Francisco	87.759	12-4-1	82.181	+1, +0.578
4	Denver	87.157	13-4	79.267	-1, -0.929
5	Green Bay	85.686	12-6	81.643	+0, -0.692
6	Atlanta	85.046	14-3	79.691	+0, +0.163
7	Chicago	83.922	10-6	81.215	+0, -0.131
8	NY Giants	83.624	9-7	80.983	+1, +0.051
9	Baltimore	83.617	12-6	80.324	+2, +0.698
10	Houston	83.543	13-5	80.398	-2, -0.349
11	Minnesota	83.253	10-7	81.808	-1, -0.191
12	Washington	82.538	10-7	80.842	+0, +0.035
13	Cincinnati	82.234	10-7	79.266	+0, +0.018
14	St Louis	81.640	7-8-1	82.829	+0, -0.002
15	Carolina	81.409	7-9	80.805	+0, -0.087
16	New Orleans	80.467	7-9	81.020	+0, -0.039
17	Pittsburgh	80.327	8-8	79.166	+0, +0.056
18	Tampa Bay	80.183	7-9	80.521	+0, -0.058
19	Dallas	80.046	8-8	81.332	+0, +0.031
20	Miami	79.764	7-9	80.513	+0, +0.037
21	Indianapolis	78.967	11-6	79.280	+0, -0.053
22	San Diego	78.855	7-9	78.993	+0, -0.060
23	Arizona	78.566	5-11	82.969	+0, +0.017
24	Buffalo	77.683	6-10	80.231	+0, +0.022
25	Detroit	77.495	4-12	81.854	+0, -0.119
26	NY Jets	77.272	6-10	81.061	+0, +0.023
27	Cleveland	76.279	5-11	79.913	+0, +0.020
28	Tennessee	75.527	6-10	80.030	+0, -0.105
29	Philadelphia	73.775	4-12	81.127	+0, +0.044
30	Oakland	73.170	4-12	79.587	+0, -0.071
31	Jacksonville	71.159	2-14	80.340	+0, -0.076
32	Kansas City	70.439	2-14	80.286	+0, -0.078

College Football Week 20 and Final Ratings and Rankings - Alabama #1

This week's and the season's final ratings and rankings are now posted.

Alabama moves to #1 after swapping it back and forth with Oregon during the bowl season with their dominating win over Notre Dame.  They aren't that far ahead of Oregon, less than 0.7 ratings points, but they finish #1 never the less.

The SEC is well represented after that with Texas A&M, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina in spots 3 thru 6 and LSU at #9.  The Pac-12 is represented with 2 teams with Stanford at #10 joining Oregon.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	93.564	13-1	73.779	+1, +2.262
2	Oregon	92.886	12-1	72.047	-1, -0.111
3	Texas A&M	89.930	11-2	74.817	+0, +0.574
4	Georgia	88.235	12-2	74.265	+0, +0.684
5	Florida	86.630	11-2	76.239	+1, +0.327
6	South Carolina	86.298	11-2	74.580	+1, +0.399
7	Kansas St	85.669	11-2	74.441	+1, -0.075
8	Notre Dame	85.252	12-1	74.985	-3, -1.508
9	LSU	84.879	10-3	74.538	+0, +0.700
10	Stanford	83.733	12-2	75.418	+0, -0.237
11	Ohio State	83.413	12-0	69.739	+0, +0.049
12	Florida St	82.778	12-2	66.569	+0, -0.045
13	Utah St	82.708	11-2	65.806	+0, -0.099
14	Oklahoma	82.607	10-3	74.066	+0, -0.128
15	Oregon St	81.932	9-4	74.181	+0, -0.112
16	Clemson	81.757	11-2	69.976	+1, +0.110
17	Oklahoma St	81.710	8-5	71.373	-1, -0.043
18	Baylor	80.463	8-5	75.068	+0, -0.163
19	Wisconsin	80.048	8-6	73.061	+0, +0.016
20	Michigan	79.695	8-5	73.560	+0, +0.142
21	Texas	79.595	9-4	74.879	+0, +0.049
22	Vanderbilt	79.305	9-4	70.711	+2, +0.479
23	Brigham Young	79.256	8-5	69.171	-1, -0.194
24	Mississippi	78.981	7-6	75.080	+6, +1.775
25	Southern Cal	78.903	7-6	74.665	-2, -0.270

NFL Week 18 Ratings and Rankings - Patriots remain #1

The ratings after week 18 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England stays #1 but Seattle moves up to #2 just ahead of Denver.  All three teams are very close and the 49ers are close behind before a bit of a drop to Green Bay and the rest.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	88.556	12-4	80.348	+0, +0.033
2	Seattle	88.135	12-5	82.143	+1, +0.485
3	Denver	88.086	13-3	79.162	-1, +0.005
4	San Francisco	87.181	11-4-1	82.213	+0, +0.082
5	Green Bay	86.378	12-5	81.178	+0, +0.482
6	Atlanta	84.883	13-3	79.452	+0, -0.075
7	Chicago	84.053	10-6	81.354	+0, -0.007
8	Houston	83.892	13-4	79.805	+1, +0.098
9	NY Giants	83.573	9-7	80.928	+1, -0.029
10	Minnesota	83.444	10-7	81.970	-2, -0.502
11	Baltimore	82.919	11-6	79.797	+1, +0.400
12	Washington	82.503	10-7	80.803	-1, -0.518
13	Cincinnati	82.216	10-7	79.255	+0, -0.166
14	St Louis	81.642	7-8-1	82.822	+0, +0.028
15	Carolina	81.496	7-9	80.877	+0, -0.053
16	New Orleans	80.506	7-9	81.086	+0, -0.054
17	Pittsburgh	80.271	8-8	79.141	+1, -0.040
18	Tampa Bay	80.241	7-9	80.590	-1, -0.097
19	Dallas	80.015	8-8	81.287	+0, -0.085
20	Miami	79.727	7-9	80.480	+0, -0.004
21	Indianapolis	79.020	11-6	79.347	+0, -0.505
22	San Diego	78.915	7-9	79.085	+0, -0.023
23	Arizona	78.549	5-11	82.951	+0, +0.058
24	Buffalo	77.661	6-10	80.195	+0, +0.000
25	Detroit	77.614	4-12	81.978	+0, -0.021
26	NY Jets	77.249	6-10	81.022	+0, -0.020
27	Cleveland	76.259	5-11	79.880	+0, -0.068
28	Tennessee	75.632	6-10	80.135	+0, -0.068
29	Philadelphia	73.731	4-12	81.071	+0, -0.095
30	Oakland	73.241	4-12	79.674	+0, -0.026
31	Jacksonville	71.235	2-14	80.452	+0, -0.092
32	Kansas City	70.517	2-14	80.372	+0, -0.065