2010 NFL Week 10 Ratings and Rankings; Jets #1, Patriots #2, Ravens #3

And there is a shakeup at the top.  The Jets have been in the top-4 nearly all year, but had dipped to #4 but leap back to #1 this week.  Behind them, New England who was #1 a couple weeks ago but fell after their bad loss, leaps back up to #2.

Green Bay is the highest rated NFC team at #4 and you don't get another NFC team until #8 with Atlanta but Philly is on the rise at #9.

The computer had a very good week predicting games going 9-5 against the spread continuing the streak of wining weeks taking it to 6.

See full rankings and other info on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	NY Jets	87.381	7-2	82.285	+3, +1.567
2	New England	86.597	7-2	82.598	+5, +2.267
3	Baltimore	86.280	6-3	82.824	-1, +0.230
4	Green Bay	85.778	6-3	80.415	+2, +0.899
5	Pittsburgh	85.435	6-3	83.148	-4, -1.732
6	Indianapolis	84.947	6-3	80.190	-1, -0.787
7	Tennessee	84.842	5-4	81.847	-4, -1.142
8	Atlanta	84.568	7-2	80.490	+1, +0.365
9	Philadelphia	84.353	6-3	81.859	+2, +1.104
10	Miami	83.413	5-4	83.649	+4, +1.976
11	San Diego	82.516	4-5	80.609	+1, -0.426
12	NY Giants	81.901	6-3	78.720	-4, -2.405
13	Cleveland	81.832	3-6	82.906	+0, -0.675
14	Kansas City	81.093	5-4	80.210	-4, -2.496
15	Chicago	80.762	6-3	78.174	+6, +1.261
15	Oakland	80.762	5-4	78.973	+2, -0.296
17	New Orleans	80.695	6-3	77.489	-2, -0.618
18	Detroit	80.287	2-7	81.679	-2, -0.779
19	Jacksonville	79.393	5-4	80.503	+5, +0.770
20	Minnesota	78.926	3-6	82.218	-1, -0.625
21	Cincinnati	78.744	2-7	82.691	+4, +0.472
22	St Louis	78.658	4-5	77.466	-2, -0.892
23	Denver	78.595	3-6	81.544	+6, +2.501
24	Washington	78.497	4-5	81.274	-6, -1.198
25	Tampa Bay	78.360	6-3	77.921	-2, -0.454
26	Seattle	78.276	5-4	79.188	+0, +1.170
27	Houston	78.067	4-5	80.924	-5, -1.298
28	Dallas	77.256	2-7	81.452	+2, +2.295
29	San Francisco	76.919	3-6	79.643	-1, +0.612
30	Buffalo	75.856	1-8	83.109	+1, +1.701
31	Arizona	74.791	3-6	80.449	-4, -1.896
32	Carolina	69.784	1-8	79.121	+0, -0.453

What would my computer say if it was handcuffed like the BCS computers are?

I enjoy taking shots at some of the BCS computers and the strange rankings they have (Billingsley has Oregon #5, really?  And Stanford #13? And TCU #1?  And he still had Utah #7?), but to be fair, the BCS computers are handcuffed by not being able to include margin of victory in their calculations.

Just for fun, I've toyed with an algorithm that is similarly handcuffed and I believe it has more reasonable results than some of the BCS computers.  Here is my BCS algorithms top-25.

Oregon is still #1 but Auburn does move up to #2.  TCU and Boise St are down a bit due to their weaker schedules.  I still have Stanford rated highly and oddly Missouri even with 2 losses is #8.  So, I like my BCS algorithm better than most of the others, but I still think it is flawed and that is because MOV can't be taken into account.

Now, MOV has to be taken into account appropriately, using diminishing returns and tailoring it so that a team neither benefits from running up the score but also doesn't get dinged if they don't.  That is exactly what my normal algorithm does, resulting in I believe a better set of ratings and rankings.

What do you think?  Leave a comment.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	86.990	10-0	74.752	+1, +0.096
2	Auburn	86.766	11-0	73.177	-1, -0.776
3	Stanford	85.032	9-1	76.348	+3, -0.318
4	LSU	84.688	9-1	74.984	+1, -0.925
5	Nebraska	84.333	9-1	74.337	-2, -1.665
6	TCU	84.304	11-0	72.574	-2, -1.579
7	Oklahoma St	84.287	9-1	74.815	+0, -0.814
8	Missouri	83.178	8-2	76.426	+1, -0.097
9	Boise St	82.912	9-0	72.304	-1, -1.124
10	Alabama	82.395	8-2	76.129	+6, +0.442
11	Michigan St	82.320	9-1	72.096	+0, -0.740
12	Oklahoma	82.164	8-2	75.701	+2, +0.012
13	Wisconsin	82.070	9-1	71.480	-3, -1.102
14	Arkansas	81.662	8-2	73.948	+3, -0.058
15	Ohio State	81.341	9-1	71.545	+3, +0.039
16	Texas A&M	81.249	7-3	76.395	+5, +0.583
17	Southern Cal	81.120	7-3	77.134	+7, +1.085
18	Arizona	80.331	7-3	75.080	-6, -2.592
19	Nevada	79.955	8-1	71.857	+3, -0.405
20	South Carolina	79.907	7-3	75.429	+10, +1.188
21	Iowa	79.435	7-3	74.048	-8, -3.086
22	Mississippi St	79.329	7-3	73.881	-2, -1.636
23	Kansas St	79.209	6-4	76.460	-4, -2.088
24	Virginia Tech	78.857	8-2	71.953	+10, +0.789
25	Utah	78.715	8-2	72.537	-10, -3.357

2010 Week 11 College Football Ratings and Rankings; Oregon #1, Stanford #2, Boise St #3, TCU #4, Auburn #5

After what I called Separation Saturday last week, the 4 top teams all found a way to come back to the pack, each in their own way.  The top-4 are still in the top-4, but other than Oregon remaining at #1, teams have moved around.  And behind the top-4, several teams are making moves and getting closer.

Oregon struggled in beating California and their rating falls over 3 points, but they had such a cushion coming in that they are still #1 by a wide margin.  Of course, they were helped by last weeks #2, TCU, struggling themselves but also being hurt by Utah's collapse and Oregon State's poor showing as they fell an astounding 6.1 points and fell to #4.

Stanford and Boise State, last weeks #3 and #4 respectively, had their own issues, Stanford just getting by ASU and Boise being hurt by Oregon State's loss too, and lost ratings points, but due to TCU's fall move up to #2 and #3.

Behind them, Auburn finally gets into the top-5, and is within striking distance of #2 Stanford (less than 2 points) but Alabama, their opponent in 2 weeks, is right behind at #6 and at this point, the computer would pick Alabama to win that game since it is in Tuscaloosa.

Why isn't Auburn higher?  Let's remember that while they won by 18, it was at home and against a now 5-6 Georgia that lost to a 4-6 Colorado.  Additionally, while Oregon, TCU, and Stanford just had close games, Auburn had three wins each by just three points earlier this year against a 7-3 Mississippi State but more importantly against a 5-5 Clemson and 6-5 Kentucky.  When one looks at the entire season to this point, the teams ahead of them have had stronger results.

The SEC is represented very well, with the 5, 6, 7, 12, and 13th ranked teams, but the Pac-10 is as well with the 1, 2, 11, 23, and 25th ranked teams.  And the Big-12 also has 5 teams in the top-25 with 9, 10, 15, 16, and 19.

The computer eked out a winning record going 29-26-1, and the locks went 3-2.  See the prediction performance for more details.

Here is the top-30.  See the web-site for the full list.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	90.628	10-0	68.083	+0, -3.042
2	Stanford	84.123	9-1	71.460	+1, -1.505
3	Boise St	83.562	9-0	62.683	+1, -1.310
4	TCU	83.524	11-0	62.552	-2, -6.140
5	Auburn	82.193	11-0	67.178	+1, +1.297
6	Alabama	81.918	8-2	69.562	+2, +1.585
7	Arkansas	80.117	8-2	66.520	+5, +1.114
8	Ohio State	80.079	9-1	62.612	+2, +0.238
9	Oklahoma St	79.669	9-1	66.402	+0, -0.247
10	Nebraska	79.529	9-1	65.364	-5, -2.004
11	Southern Cal	78.567	7-3	72.756	+3, +0.496
12	South Carolina	78.530	7-3	70.096	+13, +3.297
13	LSU	78.193	9-1	67.506	+4, +0.208
14	Wisconsin	77.711	9-1	62.425	+4, -0.268
15	Missouri	77.555	8-2	68.163	+1, -0.440
16	Texas A&M	77.539	7-3	68.312	+5, +1.103
17	Iowa	77.084	7-3	64.852	-10, -3.739
18	Virginia Tech	77.056	8-2	64.568	+6, +1.610
19	Oklahoma	76.905	8-2	67.981	+1, +0.253
20	Arizona	76.628	7-3	68.602	-9, -2.408
21	Nevada	76.386	9-1	62.055	-2, -0.912
22	Michigan St	75.758	9-1	63.931	+0, -0.612
23	Arizona St	75.537	4-6	72.056	+0, -0.604
24	Miami FL	75.235	7-3	67.032	+4, +0.725
25	California	75.204	5-5	72.397	+1, -0.015
26	Florida St	73.921	7-3	66.048	+3, -0.428
27	Florida	73.831	6-4	69.392	+0, -1.201
28	North Carolina St	73.348	7-3	64.381	+6, +0.065
29	Mississippi St	73.235	7-3	66.238	+1, -1.019
30	Georgia	72.927	5-6	67.353	+6, +0.267

Preliminary week 11 college football rankings after Auburn, TCU, Utah, etc. games

There are still a few more meaningful games to be played today, but I couldn't help seeing where things stand after the games played thus far.  The rankings below include all games finished as of the end of the Auburn game.  These are certainly not final and will change but should give us a good idea of what will happen.

Oregon is still to play and remains #1 by a large margin.  Stanford also still plays but moves to #2 simply because TCU falls.  TCU falls due to both their narrow win over an ok (was #51) San Diego State but also Utah and Oregon State losing bad games.  Boise State is also hurt a little by the Oregon State loss but holds on to #4.  At this point TCU and Boise State are effectively in a dead heat and Boise State has a tougher remaining schedule so could move ahead if they continue to win convincingly.

Auburn continues their creep up the rankings getting to #5 after a good win over an ok to decent Georgia (was #36 last week) and Alabama is right behind them.  Ohio State also moves up, all three of those teams getting help from a Nebraska that falls three spots.  They fall primarily due to Iowa State who they just beat last week playing poorly today.

It is interesting that Stanford is being generally ignored by the media, teams like LSU (and previously Alabama) are getting all the attention as the best 1-loss teams, but it seems pretty clear that Stanford has played a much tougher schedule and could in fact be the second best team in the country.  It would be a travesty if they don't get into a BCS bowl.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	93.589	9-0	67.563	+0, -0.081
2	Stanford	85.447	8-1	71.436	+1, -0.181
3	TCU	84.061	11-0	63.073	-1, -5.603
4	Boise St	83.898	9-0	63.283	+0, -0.974
5	Auburn	82.084	11-0	67.112	+1, +1.188
6	Alabama	81.100	7-2	69.626	+2, +0.767
7	Ohio State	80.581	9-1	63.172	+3, +0.740
8	Nebraska	80.458	8-1	66.782	-3, -1.075
9	Arkansas	79.521	7-2	67.828	+3, +0.518
10	Oklahoma St	79.501	8-1	66.623	-1, -0.415

2010 Week 11 College Football Preview; Mississippi State, Kansas State, South Carolina, Auburn

This week has had a lot of off the field drama, but will there be any drama on the field?  There aren't a bevy of what appear to be great games between top-25 teams, but here is a preview of the three there are as well as a few others.

In a matchup between BCS #19 Mississippi State and #12 Alabama, Vegas doesn't think the teams should be ranked that closely apparently having Alabama by 13.5 points.  My computer agrees on that point at least, having Alabama #8 and Mississippi State #30, but doesn't expect quite that large a win rather having it at 9.1 points, so take Mississippi State plus the points.

BCS #24 Kansas State visits #17 Missouri with Vegas similarly thinking the margin will be much higher than you'd expect between teams 7 spots apart, setting the line also at 13.5.  My computer has the teams ranked a bit closer, #16 and #32 but sets a 7.1 point margin so take K State and the points.

BCS #23 South Carolina visits #22 Florida as a 7 point underdog.  My computer thinks the BCS rankings are fair, having South Carolina at #25 and Florida at #27 so would pick South Carolina on a neutral field, but the game is in Gainesville so Florida is the pick by 2.8 so again take the underdog and the points.

The computer doesn't always pick underdogs though.  There are 16 games where the favorite is picked to cover, and yes Georgia at Auburn is one of them.  The line started at 9.5 but has dipped to 6.5 on all the rumors which makes the computers pick strong, but having Auburn by 11.2 it would have picked them at the starting line.  Clearly if Cam Newton doesn't play that changes things, but if he does play this seems a pretty strong pick.

Enjoy the games!

2010 Week 10 BCS Bowl Game Predictions

We are now close enough to the end of the regular season that we can start to look at who is going to be in conference championship games and who will win each conference.

Using my most recent projected records, the conference champions would be:

• ACC - Virginia Tech 10-3 (beating FSU in championship game)
• Big-12 - Nebraska 12-1 (Oklahoma State)
• Big-East - Pitt 8-4
• Big-Televen - Michgan State 11-1 (beating out Wisconsin at 11-1 due to head to head)
• Pac-10 - Oregon 12-0
• SEC - Auburn 12-1 (Florida)

TCU will likely hold on to their lead over Boise State in the BCS and thus get the non-AQ conference automatic bid.  That makes 7 teams for the 10 games leaving 3 at-large berths.  Other eligible teams for those would likely be:

• Boise State 12-0
• Stanford 11-1
• Wisconsin 11-1
• Utah 11-1
• Oklahoma State 11-2
• Iowa 10-2
• Ohio State 10-2
• LSU 10-2
• Alabama 10-2

Since my computer projects Auburn to have 1-loss, they wouldn't be in the BCS championship game, instead TCU would move up.  So with tie-ins and the BCS top-2, we have:

• BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs TCU 12-0
• Rose Bowl - Michigan State 11-1 vs ?
• Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs ?
• Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 10-3 vs ?
• Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 12-1 vs ?

Since the Rose Bowl lost a tie-in to the NCG, they get first pick, and while my read of the rules is that they would not be obligated to take Boise State since they wouldn't be the non-AQ automatic qualifier, my guess is they would anyway.  Their alternative though would be to keep the Big-Televen vs Pac-10 and take an 11-1 Stanford making it an attractive game.  The games are now:

• BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs TCU 12-0
• Rose Bowl - Michigan State 11-1 vs Boise State (possibly Stanford)
• Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs ?
• Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 10-3 vs ?
• Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 12-1 vs ?

The Sugar Bowl gets the next pick and is going to be interested in a team that will travel well.  My guess is they try to draw from the Big-Televen and take Wisconsin.  They could possibly take whichever of Boise State or Stanford the Rose doesn't, but I really doubt they'd take Boise State because of fewer fans/dollars they'd bring to New Orleans as well as it would be a no-win situation for the SEC as they've been saying Boise isn't worthy of a BCS bowl so why give them a chance to knock off Auburn and embarrass them?  If they do take someone else it would more likely be Stanford, but they are farther away and wouldn't bring as many fans.  The bowls are now:

• BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs TCU 12-0
• Rose Bowl - Wisconsin 11-1 vs Boise State (possibly Stanford)
• Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs Michigan State 11-1
• Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 10-3 vs ?
• Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 12-1 vs ?

The Orange Bowl gets the next pick and would also like to pick a team that travels well, but can't take a Big-Televen team (they already have 2 in the BCS) and my computer projects the rest of the SEC teams will all have 2 losses, so it would be hard to pass up a 1 loss Stanford over a 4 loss Pitt.  If the Rose opts to take Stanford then the Orange doesn't want a rematch and wouldn't take Boise so it would be Pitt or likely an LSU and I'd think they'd prefer LSU.  That would give us:

• BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs TCU 12-0
• Rose Bowl - Michigan State 11-1 vs Boise State 12-0 (possibly Stanford 11-1)
• Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs Wisconsin 11-1
• Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 10-3 vs Stanford 11-1 (possibly LSU 10-2)
• Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 12-1 vs ?

The Fiesta Bowl would be forced to take Pitt as the last AQ giving us:

• BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs TCU 12-0
• Rose Bowl - Michigan State 11-1 vs Boise State 12-0 (possibly Stanford 11-1)
• Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs Wisconsin 11-1
• Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 10-3 vs Stanford 11-1 (possibly LSU 10-2)
• Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 12-1 vs Pitt 8-4

Note that in scenario 2 (Rose Bowl taking Stanford), Boise State gets left out of the BCS bowls unless the Sugar Bowl bails them out and takes them or the Orange Bowl takes Pitt leaving the Fiesta to take Boise State who you know they'd love to.  It also stinks for Nebraska who gets stuck playing an 8-4 Pitt team.

So, there you have it, the BCS bowl games my computer (and my bowl game selection logic) predicts will take place.  What do you think?

Updated 11/9 to correct incorrect Big-Televen tie-breaker being used, swaps Michigan State and Wisconsin

Boise State could be an undefeated #4 and not go to a BCS bowl

The rules for how teams qualify for the BCS and how the bowls select the at-large teams is fairly complicated, but we are getting close enough to the end of the season that it is worthwhile to start looking at how it might play out.

Let's assume that Oregon, Auburn, TCU, and Boise State all win out and finish undefeated.  Let's also assume that TCU stays ahead of Boise State at #3 and Boise State is #4.  Let's also assume Virginia Tech wins the ACC, a 1-loss Nebraska or Oklahoma State wins the Big-12, Pitt wins the Big-East, and a 1-loss Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Michigan State wins the Big-Televen.

That gives us the 6 AQs from the 6 conferences plus TCU gets an AQ bid by being the highest rated non-AQ conference team in the top-12.  That leaves 3 at-large spots, but these are not automatically determined by BCS rankings, rather each bowl that has an open slot gets to choose in a pre-determined order.  That order varies each year and also depends on which bowls lose a tied in team to the BCS championship game.  So let's take a look at how it works this year.

First, the rules for an at-large team are that they have won at least 9 games and are in the top-14 of the BCS rankings.  Each conference is limited to two teams unless two non-champs from a conference are #1 and #2 which is not the case in this scenario.

The bowl tie-ins call for the ACC champ (Virginia Tech) to go to the Orange Bowl, Big-Televen (Wisconsin) to the Rose Bowl, Big-12 (Nebraska) to the Fiesta, and then since the Pac-10 and SEC are in the championship game those auto tie-ins become open in the Rose and Sugar Bowls respectively.  And there is a clause that calls for the Rose Bowl's bid in this case to go to the non-AQ conference AQ, in this case TCU.  We then have our first bowl matchup, Wisconsin vs TCU in the Rose Bowl.

A summary at this point then is:

NCG: Oregon vs Auburn
Rose: Wisconsin vs TCU
Fiesta: Nebraska vs ?
Orange: Virginia Tech vs ?
Sugar: ? vs ?

with Pitt the remaining team that must be placed and a number of teams available as at-large including an undefeated Boise State, and potential 1-loss LSU, Stanford, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Utah teams.

The Sugar Bowl gets to select next as they lost Auburn to the NCG and they would likely stick with an SEC team likely picking LSU in this scenario.  The order for the remaining selections is Sugar, Orange, then Fiesta this year.

The Sugar Bowl picks next and is going to want to cater to ratings and a team that travels well from the mid-west or east, and would likely go with Ohio State or even Michigan State if available instead of AQ Pitt.  They could pick Boise State too, but likely wouldn't because it won't bring as many fans and money all the way from the west.  If they did "go west", they'd probably prefer a 1-loss Stanford.

The Orange Bowl picks next and with Virginia Tech already there, likely wouldn't take Boise State as that would be a rematch from the regular season.  They'd most likely take which ever of Ohio State/Michigan State or Stanford the Sugar doesn't pick.  There is an outside chance they'd take Pitt being from the east coast, but they aren't even in the top-30 of the polls now so that is unlikely.

That leaves the Fiesta to pick, and they'd love to take Boise State, but they may be forced to take the last AQ, Pitt leaving Boise out.  The Fiesta might even prefer Stanford to Boise, but I really doubt they'd make that choice if that was the option since Boise would be a solid pick and would be undefeated.

That would leave:

NCG: Oregon vs Auburn

Rose: Wisconsin vs TCU

Fiesta: Nebraska vs Pitt

Orange: Virginia Tech vs Stanford

Sugar: LSU vs Ohio State

So, there you have it!  A very realistic scenario where Boise State finished undefeated and #4 in the BCS, but doesn't get invited to a BCS bowl.  This really highlights the issue with AQs for the 6 conferences as clearly Virginia Tech and Pitt are less deserving of a BCS bowl than Boise State is.  I'd even argue that should Stanford get left out that is a travesty too as they are far more deserving.

Could the Orange Bowl bail us out of this scenario by taking Pitt?  Possibly.  Could the Sugar bail us out by taking Boise State or Pitt?  Possibly.  I certainly hope one of them do.