Friday, March 12, 2010

Who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament 3/12 version

To update the previous entry on the subject, here is the updated list of who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament.  The change column is the change in ranking/rating since Sunday.

The last 4 at-large in would presently be San Diego State, Ole Miss, Florida, and Georgia Tech.  The first 4 on the outside would be UConn, Memphis, Seton Hall, and ASU.

Changes from the Sunday forecast at-large teams are:
  • UConn out - Needed a run to cement borderline spot and lost first round
  • Florida in - One win thus far got them to next to last in
There were also a few changes in auto-bids, those being:

  • IUPUI out and Oakland in for the Summit League
  • Ohio U. forecast to win the MAC replacing Kent St. that lost in the league tourney
  • Robert Morris replacing Quinnipiac who they beat in the Northeast tourney

The computer already had ASU out and UW in on Sunday, and that has stayed the same.  It also had Notre Dame in and they've cemented that.

Stay tuned for more updates.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Kansas*95.96930-281.256+0, -0.320
2Duke*94.52126-581.871+0, -0.187
3Syracuse92.91128-481.141+0, -0.699
4Baylor91.83624-680.984+3, +0.576
5Kansas St91.66924-682.396+1, +0.382
6West Virginia*91.37225-683.327-2, -0.436
7Kentucky*91.24029-279.675-2, -0.166
8Ohio State*90.76024-779.873+0, -0.200
9Purdue90.60626-480.663+0, -0.254
10Brigham Young*90.49128-477.864+0, -0.299
11Wisconsin90.33123-781.331+1, -0.228
12Georgetown DC90.23222-983.318+4, +0.859
13Villanova90.17324-782.538-2, -0.433
14Maryland90.05922-780.855-1, -0.193
15Texas A&M89.31422-881.846-1, -0.299
16Marquette89.07422-1080.954+1, +0.023
17California*89.01422-981.401+2, +0.036
18Xavier OH*88.65223-780.369+2, -0.148
19Texas88.23124-981.503-1, -0.779
20Michigan St88.21424-780.785+2, -0.209
21Notre Dame88.20323-1080.137+7, +0.575
22Butler*88.19828-478.858+4, +0.375
23Temple88.18526-580.259+0, -0.120
24Pittsburgh88.12824-881.607-3, -0.437
25Missouri88.04022-1080.089-10, -1.417
26Utah St*87.98125-677.273+1, +0.253
27Clemson87.66321-1081.139-3, -0.589
28St Mary's CA*87.54125-577.435+9, +0.693
29Vanderbilt87.36222-781.223+1, -0.146
30Northern Iowa*87.25928-478.228+1, -0.184
31New Mexico87.19729-378.619-2, -0.417
32UTEP*87.17825-576.727+6, +0.357
33Tennessee87.17024-780.448-1, -0.238
34Florida St86.93722-880.734+1, -0.157
35Oklahoma St86.85622-1080.689-1, -0.336
36Louisville86.84020-1281.964-3, -0.501
37Washington86.79022-979.947-1, -0.098
38Gonzaga86.63125-678.249-13, -1.193
39Dayton86.59120-1179.707+0, -0.058
40UNLV86.43123-778.710+1, +0.042
41Minnesota86.22619-1280.203+6, +0.367
42Virginia Tech86.16523-779.036+0, -0.165
43Richmond86.05124-778.951+0, -0.262
44Georgia Tech86.02019-1181.191+0, -0.207
45Old Dominion*85.70626-878.152+1, -0.178
46Florida85.61621-1179.946+5, +0.039
47Mississippi85.59221-979.446+1, -0.127
48San Diego St85.55721-879.402-3, -0.425
50Siena*85.26327-676.706+4, +0.002
56Murray St*84.64128-472.871+1, -0.167
62Cornell NY*83.89325-475.159+0, -0.174
75Wofford*82.68125-875.686+1, -0.010
93Ohio U.*81.32418-1476.787+8, +0.573
95Montana*81.10120-975.147+1, +0.005
105Sam Houston St*80.46720-774.476-10, -0.667
110Pacific CA*80.10220-1075.876+1, -0.127
118Oakland*79.70324-876.079+15, +0.815
144Vermont*77.86624-972.571+2, -0.220
149East Tennessee St*77.72519-1475.760+2, -0.179
158Morgan St*77.43525-972.749+2, +0.213
164North Texas*76.84121-873.410+8, +0.274
183Lehigh*75.72621-1070.694+2, -0.201
191Robert Morris PA*75.48723-1171.893+1, -0.120
202Winthrop*74.55617-1373.366+0, -0.203
257Arkansas-Pine Bluff*70.95915-1572.919-3, -0.325

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament

Using my computer's rankings as I write this with 5 games still to be finished this evening, here is who should make the 65 team tournament.  The list below is arrived at by taking the automatic bids determined thus far, the highest rated team from each conference yet to determine and auto-bid, and then the next 34 highest rated teams to fill out the bracket.  Those teams with an asterisk are the auto-bid or highest rated from their conference and thus the projected automatic bid.

With Saint Mary's beating Gonzaga last night, some might say an at-large bid was lost, but the computer actually had them comfortably in as an at-large through Sunday at #37 and is actually ranked ahead of Gonzaga now at #27 compared to Gonzaga at #37.

The last team in according to my rankings is Ole Miss at #48.  This means UConn and Seton Hall (both tied at #49), Florida, and Memphis are the last 4 left out.

Living in the Pac-10 country, there has been much debate if they will get 2 teams in.  The computer says they should get 3 with both Washington (#36) and ASU (#47) getting in.  The Pac-10 tourney could affect both and result in only 1 getting in.

ESPN's Bubble Watch has 6 bids for 17 teams, those being:

  • ACC - They list Georgia Tech as having work to do, but the computer has them in at #43 but that is close enough they better win one game in the tournament.  ESPN lists Wake as a lock though and the computer disagrees having them at #54 so having work to do.
  • Big East - ESPN lists Notre Dame as should be in and the computer agrees having them at #29, actually ahead of #33 Louisville who they have as a lock.  Seton Hall, as mentioned above is right there so another win may get them in, and ESPN lists South Florida which shouldn't really have a shot as they are #64.
  • Big Televen - ESPN has Illinois and Minnesota needing to do some work and presently the computer has Minnesota in at #46 and Illinois out at #58.
  • Big-12 - ESPN agrees with the computer that there are 7 in and not much after that.
  • Pac-10 - As noted above, should get 2 with ASU or UW being the second.
  • SEC - ESPN lists Florida, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State as bubble teams and the computer agrees with those being #51, #48, and #56 respectively.
  • Mountain West - ESPN asks if 4 should make it and the computer, for now at least, says yes with UNLV at #40 and San Diego State at #44 making it.
  • Atlantic 10 - ESPN has 3 on the bubble in Dayton, Rhode Island, and St. Louis, and only Dayton should get in at #39 which is ironically ahead of Richmond at #42 who ESPN says is a lock.
  • Others - Utah State, UAB, and Memphis are listed and at #26 Utah State should be a lock but at #61 and #52 respectively, UAB and Memphis shouldn't be close at this point.


Note that all of this is not a prediction of what will happen, rather what the computer says should happen.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Kansas*96.25429-281.308+0, -0.035
2Duke*94.61426-582.001+0, -0.094
3Syracuse*93.62228-380.940+0, +0.012
4West Virginia91.77824-683.505+0, -0.030
5Kentucky*91.34629-279.786+0, -0.060
6Kansas St91.25123-682.448+0, -0.036
7Baylor91.22623-680.972+0, -0.034
8Ohio State*90.90024-780.021+0, -0.060
9Purdue90.79926-480.913+0, -0.061
10Brigham Young*90.77527-477.994+0, -0.015
11Villanova90.58624-682.428+0, -0.020
12Wisconsin90.47523-781.439+0, -0.084
13Maryland90.19422-781.001+0, -0.058
14Texas A&M89.57621-882.081+0, -0.037
15Missouri89.41322-980.121+0, -0.044
16Georgetown DC89.35020-983.167+0, -0.023
17Marquette89.03520-1080.641+0, -0.016
18California*88.96521-981.668+1, -0.013
19Texas88.92323-881.246-1, -0.087
20Xavier OH*88.77223-780.476+0, -0.028
21Pittsburgh88.59024-781.593+0, +0.025
22Michigan St88.36124-780.942+0, -0.062
23Temple88.32526-580.388+0, +0.020
24Clemson88.19921-981.205+0, -0.053
25Butler*87.80427-479.016+1, -0.019
26Utah St*87.75624-677.429+1, +0.028
27St Mary's CA*87.72825-577.626+10, +0.880
28New Mexico87.59728-378.820+1, -0.017
29Notre Dame87.56621-1079.867-1, -0.062
30Vanderbilt87.48022-781.344+0, -0.028
31Northern Iowa*87.41128-478.447+0, -0.032
32Tennessee87.36023-780.768+0, -0.048
33Louisville87.29020-1182.036+0, -0.051
34Oklahoma St87.16521-980.453+0, -0.027
35Florida St87.04722-880.853+0, -0.047
36Washington86.87921-980.072+0, -0.009
37Gonzaga86.86925-678.485-12, -0.955
38UTEP*86.79524-576.695+0, -0.026
39Dayton86.72120-1179.837+0, +0.072
40UNLV86.37122-778.845+1, -0.018
41Virginia Tech86.28423-779.160+1, -0.046
42Richmond86.26324-779.171+1, -0.050
43Georgia Tech86.16618-1181.300+1, -0.061
44San Diego St85.99320-879.570+1, +0.011
45Old Dominion*85.88526-878.347+1, +0.001
46Minnesota85.79818-1280.302+1, -0.061
47Arizona St85.69222-979.515+2, -0.015
48Mississippi85.68421-979.506+0, -0.035
53Siena*85.37327-676.836+1, +0.112
57Murray St*84.76228-473.008+0, -0.046
63Cornell NY*84.09825-475.376-1, +0.031
68Kent St*83.28822-878.069+0, -0.011
73Wofford*82.90025-875.898+3, +0.209
93Montana*81.24719-975.181+3, +0.151
95Sam Houston St*81.10618-774.833+0, -0.028
96IUPUI*80.98122-975.423+3, +0.032
109Pacific CA*80.24120-1076.037+2, +0.012
146Vermont*78.05724-972.775+0, -0.029
151East Tennessee St*77.86219-1475.917+0, -0.042
160Morgan St*77.18524-973.057+0, -0.037
163North Texas*77.01421-873.595+9, +0.447
184Quinnipiac*75.93623-869.034-1, -0.006
186Lehigh*75.90421-1070.886-1, -0.023
202Winthrop*74.68817-1373.500+0, -0.071
254Arkansas-Pine Bluff*71.25614-1573.325+0, -0.028

NBA Rankings through 3/7/2010

The computer's NBA ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 7th.

Cleveland remains a clear #1 but now over Utah as the Lakers slides drops them all the way to #4.  Orland breaks into the top-3 for the first time in 12 weeks.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Cleveland89.43349-1583.468+0, -0.233
2Utah88.75240-2283.766+1, +0.308
3Orlando88.33644-2083.609+1, +0.494
4LA Lakers88.10146-1883.666-2, -0.384
5Denver87.40642-2183.606+1, +0.398
6Oklahoma City87.13538-2483.822-1, -0.242
7Phoenix86.72040-2583.773+0, +0.429
8San Antonio86.61036-2483.418+1, +0.849
9Atlanta86.30140-2283.526-1, +0.495
10Dallas86.07043-2184.074+0, +0.376
11Milwaukee85.88433-2983.543+1, +0.756
12Portland85.79737-2883.832-1, +0.431
13Boston85.61840-2183.535+0, +0.765
14Charlotte84.69230-3183.975+0, -0.031
15Miami84.65032-3184.102+0, +0.267
16Memphis83.39332-3183.832+2, +0.019
17Houston83.14231-3184.276+3, +0.331
18Chicago83.04131-3183.535-2, -1.276
19New Orleans82.67931-3283.864-2, -0.776
20Toronto82.23432-2983.502-1, -1.008
21Philadelphia81.81423-3983.796+0, -0.445
22Indiana80.42720-4383.980+0, -0.525
23Washington80.22221-3983.409+0, -0.380
24Golden State80.16517-4584.159+1, -0.013
25LA Clippers79.98725-3883.950-1, -0.387
26Sacramento79.93421-4284.346+2, +0.480
27Detroit79.57422-4183.675-1, -0.366
28New York79.31121-4183.017-1, -0.525
29Minnesota78.36214-4983.995+0, -0.236
30New Jersey76.7567-5583.955+0, +0.691

Monday, March 8, 2010

College Basketball Rankings through 3/7/2010


The computer's college basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 28th.

With post-season tournaments now the only thing between now and the 65 team tourney, it is interesting to see how things are shaping up.  The top-25 are below and Kansas moves to #1 and West Virginia jumps into the top-4 as the big changes.

If the season ended today the computer says the four #1 seeds should be Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, and WVU.  Look for a more detailed bracket analysis shortly.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Kansas96.28929-281.334+1, +1.470
2Duke94.70826-582.088-1, -0.247
3Syracuse93.61028-380.931+0, -0.631
4West Virginia91.80824-683.545+2, +0.734
5Kentucky91.40629-279.850+0, +0.130
6Kansas St91.28723-682.481-2, -1.510
7Baylor91.26023-680.995+4, +1.043
8Ohio State90.96024-780.074+1, +0.327
9Purdue90.86026-480.972-2, -0.092
10Brigham Young90.79027-478.010+2, +0.604
11Villanova90.60624-682.447-3, -0.123
12Wisconsin90.55923-781.524+1, +0.839
13Maryland90.25222-781.056+1, +0.627
14Texas A&M89.61321-882.105+5, +0.886
15Missouri89.45722-980.160-5, -0.887
16Georgetown DC89.37320-983.187+0, +0.193
17Marquette89.05120-1080.668+0, +0.249
18Texas89.01023-881.313-3, -0.503
19California88.97821-981.684+1, +0.347
20Xavier OH88.80023-780.508-2, +0.044
21Pittsburgh88.56524-781.597+1, +0.175
22Michigan St88.42324-781.006-1, -0.156
23Temple88.30526-580.367+4, +0.405
24Clemson88.25221-981.255-1, +0.060
25Gonzaga87.82425-578.168+3, +0.176

Thursday, March 4, 2010

NBA Rankings through 2/28/2010

The computer's NBA ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 28th.

Cleveland remains a clear #1 with the Lakers and Utah continuing their weekly flip-flop (4th week in a row they've swapped places).  Boston falls to their lowest ranking of the season at #13 going only 10-12 the past 7 weeks.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Cleveland89.66646-1483.674+0, +0.715
2LA Lakers88.48545-1583.412+1, -0.089
3Utah88.44438-2183.668-1, -0.388
4Orlando87.84240-2083.769+0, +0.297
5Oklahoma City87.37735-2383.780+0, -0.126
6Denver87.00839-2083.621+0, +0.061
7Phoenix86.29137-2483.868+2, +0.511
8Atlanta85.80637-2183.609+0, -0.329
9San Antonio85.76133-2483.394+1, +0.082
10Dallas85.69439-2184.216+2, +0.732
11Portland85.36635-2783.725+4, +0.803
12Milwaukee85.12830-2983.722+6, +1.533
13Boston84.85336-2183.731-6, -1.491
14Charlotte84.72328-2984.003+0, +0.116
15Miami84.38329-3184.248-4, -1.285
16Chicago84.31731-2883.657-3, -0.524
17New Orleans83.45531-2983.797+0, -0.233
18Memphis83.37430-2983.763+2, +0.362
19Toronto83.24231-2783.621-3, -0.879
20Houston82.81129-2984.501-1, -0.414
21Philadelphia82.25922-3683.673+0, +0.204
22Indiana80.95220-3983.556+0, +0.150
23Washington80.60221-3683.231+0, -0.184
24LA Clippers80.37424-3583.816+1, +0.057
25Golden State80.17817-4183.684-1, -0.457
26Detroit79.94021-3883.662+2, +0.527
27New York79.83620-3883.141-1, -0.328
28Sacramento79.45420-3984.102-1, -0.091
29Minnesota78.59814-4783.959+0, +0.285
30New Jersey76.0656-5383.967+0, +0.636

Monday, March 1, 2010

Projected 65 teams to make the Big Dance

Using this weeks NCAA rankings, below are the current teams that would make the 65 team tourney using the highest ranked team from the 31 conferences and the next 34 highest rated teams to fill out the bracket.  Those teams with an asterisk are the highest rated from their conference and thus the projected automatic bid.

There isn't a whole lot of change from the projection from 2 weeks ago, they key changes being ASU, SD State, VaTech, and Wake Forest out, and UConn, Florida, Minnesota, and Notre Dame in.

The last 4 at-large making it are Ole Miss, Florida, Richmond, and Washington with the first 4 not making it are SD State, ASU, Illinois, and VaTech.

Some of the differences compared to the current Bracketology on ESPN are:

  • ESPN has VaTech and SD State making it in as part of the last 4.
  • ESPN has Dayton, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, and Minnesota not making it.
More updates to come.


RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Duke*94.95525-481.868+1, +0.410
2Kansas*94.81927-280.625-1, -1.225
3Syracuse*94.24127-280.562+0, +0.930
4Kansas St92.79723-481.943+1, +0.681
5Kentucky*91.27627-279.678+2, -0.488
6West Virginia91.07422-683.092+0, -1.032
7Purdue*90.95224-481.108-3, -1.179
8Villanova90.72923-581.959+0, -0.143
9Ohio State90.63323-779.980+0, -0.010
10Missouri90.34421-879.618+3, +0.288
11Baylor90.21721-680.684+0, -0.066
12Brigham Young*90.18625-477.863-2, -0.382
13Wisconsin89.72021-781.529+2, +0.340
14Maryland89.62520-780.520+2, +0.520
15Texas89.51322-780.956-3, -0.691
16Georgetown DC89.18019-882.900-2, -0.296
17Marquette88.80219-980.469+2, +0.051
18Xavier OH*88.75621-781.151-1, -0.276
19Texas A&M88.72719-882.181+5, +0.877
20California*88.63120-981.520+5, +0.905
21Michigan St88.57922-781.303+5, +0.876
22Pittsburgh88.39022-781.836-4, -0.585
23Clemson88.19220-880.912+0, +0.300
24Vanderbilt88.14321-681.343-3, +0.170
25Butler*88.03026-479.260-5, -0.064
26New Mexico88.01027-379.149+5, +0.708
27Temple87.90024-580.154+1, +0.245
28Gonzaga*87.64823-578.619-7, -0.325
29Dayton87.61719-979.680+0, +0.082
30Louisville87.34919-1081.509-3, -0.334
31Oklahoma St87.28120-880.248+7, +0.520
32Georgia Tech87.25818-981.006-2, -0.230
33Florida St87.13420-880.671+6, +0.386
34Connecticut87.11717-1282.501+3, +0.332
35Utah St*87.10422-677.662-3, -0.180
36Notre Dame86.96419-1079.431+18, +1.945
37UTEP*86.93722-576.283-4, -0.137
38Tennessee86.78421-780.757-4, -0.167
39Minnesota86.56117-1180.348+3, +0.262
40UNLV86.48121-779.330+3, +0.256
41St Mary's CA86.36623-577.324-1, -0.246
42Mississippi St86.26721-878.469+7, +0.777
43Northern Iowa*86.24425-478.391-7, -0.682
44Washington86.09319-979.897+1, +0.120
45Richmond86.07022-778.992+2, +0.331
46Florida85.93920-979.571+7, +0.579
47Mississippi85.85019-979.738+1, +0.265
50Old Dominion*85.54223-878.431+0, +0.073
54Siena*85.09924-676.987+5, +0.445
59Murray St*84.31625-472.883+4, +0.199
65Cornell NY*83.65723-475.449-3, -0.529
77Kent St*82.54821-877.830+5, +0.155
86Wofford*82.17722-876.026-1, -0.184
92Sam Houston St*81.51617-675.005+5, +0.444
100Weber St*80.99617-977.093+2, +0.110
101IUPUI*80.97320-975.543+12, +0.818
125Western Kentucky*79.58719-1275.564+10, +0.853
126Coastal Carolina*79.53422-570.824+4, +0.557
128Pacific CA*79.40018-1075.902-19, -0.949
143Jacksonville FL*78.37918-1175.427-1, +0.007
154Vermont*77.79422-973.388-4, -0.119
170Morgan St*77.03322-973.710-14, -0.625
175Quinnipiac*76.45121-869.449+1, +0.323
195Lehigh*75.33419-1071.438+14, +0.594
256Arkansas-Pine Bluff*71.15013-1473.999+3, +0.187

College Basketball Rankings through 2/28/2010

The computer's college basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 28th.

With today being the first day of March, we know that March Madness is near so it is interesting to see how teams are positioning themselves in the rankings.  The top-25 are below and there is a little jockeying at the top as Purdue drops after the narrow win over Minnesota and the loss to Michigan State, and that win correspondingly moves Michigan State up 5 spots but so do Texas A&M and Cal.

If the season ended today the computer says the four #1 seeds should be Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, and Kansas State, but most probably have Kentucky, my #5 team as the 4th #1 in lieu of Kansas State.

Look for a more detailed bracket analysis shortly.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Duke 94.955 25-4 81.868 +1, +0.410
2 Kansas 94.819 27-2 80.625 -1, -1.225
3 Syracuse 94.241 27-2 80.562 +0, +0.930
4 Kansas St 92.797 23-4 81.943 +1, +0.681
5 Kentucky 91.276 27-2 79.678 +2, -0.488
6 West Virginia 91.074 22-6 83.092 +0, -1.032
7 Purdue 90.952 24-4 81.108 -3, -1.179
8 Villanova 90.729 23-5 81.959 +0, -0.143
9 Ohio State 90.633 23-7 79.980 +0, -0.010
10 Missouri 90.344 21-8 79.618 +3, +0.288
11 Baylor 90.217 21-6 80.684 +0, -0.066
12 Brigham Young 90.186 25-4 77.863 -2, -0.382
13 Wisconsin 89.720 21-7 81.529 +2, +0.340
14 Maryland 89.625 20-7 80.520 +2, +0.520
15 Texas 89.513 22-7 80.956 -3, -0.691
16 Georgetown DC 89.180 19-8 82.900 -2, -0.296
17 Marquette 88.802 19-9 80.469 +2, +0.051
18 Xavier OH 88.756 21-7 81.151 -1, -0.276
19 Texas A&M 88.727 19-8 82.181 +5, +0.877
20 California 88.631 20-9 81.520 +5, +0.905
21 Michigan St 88.579 22-7 81.303 +5, +0.876
22 Pittsburgh 88.390 22-7 81.836 -4, -0.585
23 Clemson 88.192 20-8 80.912 +0, +0.300
24 Vanderbilt 88.143 21-6 81.343 -3, +0.170
25 Butler 88.030 26-4 79.260 -5, -0.064