Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 18 & Over 4.0 level is being played in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.0 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 17
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 2%
Tie for 4th: 92%
Size of tie: 4 - 26%, 5 - 26%, 6 - 17%, in theory could be 12!
Sets tie-breaker: 32%, 2 teams 61%, 3 teams 31%
Easiest schedule: 3.96
Toughest schedule: 4.06
Likely semi-finalists: Texas, Midwest, MoValley, Middle States
Contenders: SoCal, Eastern, Northern, Florida, New England

The simulation says a big 6-way tie at 3-1 are the most likely records, but three teams have a better than 20% chance of getting to 4-0 so that may happen, but a tie at 3-1 for the last spot is still very likely.  While the schedule strength range is 3.96 to 4.06, 14 of the teams are between 3.98 and 4.02.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

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Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 women

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 40 & Over 4.5 level is being played in Scottsdale, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.5 women.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 16
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 10%
Tie for 4th: 87%
Size of tie: 4 - 29%, 3 - 24%, 3 - 23%, in theory could be 11!
Sets tie-breaker: 26%, 2 teams 69%, 3 teams 26%
Easiest schedule: 4.26
Toughest schedule: 4.39
Likely semi-finalists: Florida, Southern, Middle States, SoCal
Contenders: NorCal, New England, Northern

There is likely to be a big group at 3-1, the simulation says six teams, and only three will advance.  Potentially a big tie on courts at 11-5.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 40 & Over 4.5 level is being played in Scottsdale, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.5 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 17
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 6%
Tie for 4th: 88%
Size of tie: 4 - 28%, 5 - 24%, 3 - 21%, in theory could be 12!
Sets tie-breaker: 27%, 2 teams 67%, 3 teams 27%
Easiest schedule: 4.36
Toughest schedule: 4.51
Likely semi-finalists: SoCal, Mid-Atlantic, Caribbean, Texas
Contenders: Northern, New England, MoValley, PNW

There are likely a few 4-0 teams and 3-1 should be required to make the semis.  Note there are wildly varying schedule strengths, a full 0.15 spread covering the strongest to weakest.  If my ratings are representative, the schedules could play a huge role in who advances.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.5 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 40 & Over 3.5 level is being played in Oklahoma City.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 3.5 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 16
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 1%
Tie for 4th: 89%
Size of tie: 4 - 27%, 5 - 27%, 6 - 17%, in theory could be 12!
Sets tie-breaker: 32%, 2 teams 60%, 3 teams 31%
Easiest schedule: 3.49
Toughest schedule: 3.61
Likely semi-finalists: Intermountain, Eastern, Middle States, MoValley
Contenders: Mid-Atlantic, Florida, Northern, and Southern

It should take a 3-1 record to make the semis, and the simulation says a 6-way tie for the top-6 spots at 3-1 is a real possibility.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.5 Women

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the third weekend of Nationals, and the 40 & Over 3.5 level is being played in Oklahoma City.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 3.5 women.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 17
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 3%
Tie for 4th: 91%
Size of tie: 4 - 26%, 5 - 25%, 3 - 17%, in theory could be 13!
Sets tie-breaker: 31%, 2 teams 61%, 3 teams 31%
Easiest schedule: 3.50
Toughest schedule: 3.58
Likely semi-finalists: Florida, Middle States, NorCal, Intermountain
Contenders: Caribbean, Texas, SoCal, and Eastern

It should take a 3-1 record to make the semis, and the simulation says a 7-way tie for the top-7 spots at 3-1 is a real possibility.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Weather report for the third weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals

The third weekend of USTA League Nationals is coming up and the Nationals Campus in Orlando enters the fray, so the weather report is in order.

Two events will be held in the Phoenix area, and weather there will be just fine, mid to upper 80s with 5-10 mph breezes.

Oklahoma City finishes up its service for 2021 this weekend, and Friday is forecast to have morning showers and be windy again, but after that the weather looks fine with mid to upper 60s.

Orlando hosts its first Nationals of the year and the temperatures look to be in the upper 80s with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and modest breezes.

So perhaps a minor delay in Oklahoma City, but otherwise looks good for the weekend.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

The third week of 2021 USTA League Nationals will be the busiest

The second week of Nationals is complete, and we can look forward to the third weekend which will be the busiest.  The first week had 18 & Over get things started, and this weekend continued that and added in one 40 & Over event (4.0), and this coming weekend adds in 55 & Over too.

The Phoenix area is again hosting two events with the 18 & Over 4.0 in Surprise and 40 & Over 4.5 in Scottsdale.  Oklahoma City hosts its third event in three weeks with the 40 & Over 3.5.  And the National Campus in Orlando hosts its first event of 2021 Nationals with the 55 & Over 7.0 level on clay.

Stay tuned for some previews and simulations.