2014 Pacific Northwest Early Start Ratings are out, how accurate are the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings?

As I wrote about yesterday, in the Pacific Northwest Section of the USTA, we have Early Start Ratings and as expected they came out yesterday.  The can be found here.

With their release, it provides an opportunity to check my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings as they should mirror and predict the bump ups/downs fairly closely.

I'm working on a more comprehensive analysis, but I did some spot checks based on feedback and questions from a few folks that had gotten individual or team reports in the past.

For one team I did a team report for, I predicted that 4 players were in line to be bumped up from 3.5 to 4.0 and indeed they were.  However, the team also had 3 more players that got bumped up that I didn't predict.  Looking closer, these 3 were the next 3 highest rated in my report and I had each one above 3.5 a few matches earlier and they'd dipped just below in their last match or two.  So certainly very close on these 3 "misses".

Another person I've done several individual reports for wrote me to let me know that he and a teammate had been moved up, but two others who had thought they might be weren't.  For these 4, my estimated were spot on agreeing with both bump ups and also agreeing the 2 that weren't shouldn't have been.

Then there was also another 2 that thought they'd be bumped down and were and I predicted these too.

Last, a friend had been getting periodic updates and expected to be bumped down and was and I predict this one correct.

For this sampling then, my ratings went 11 for 14 on predicting the bumps.  And the three that missed did so by just a few hundredths so not far off at all.

Stay tuned for more.

2013 Early Start Ratings for 2014 Early Start Leagues for the Pacific Northwest

At this time of year in the Pacific Northwest, USTA League players look forward to the Early Start Ratings coming out.  I've been told by one of the mixed doubles coordinators that they should be out in early July so it could be any day now.

What are Early Start Ratings?  Basically, they are ratings that are used to determine the level players should play at for Early Start Leagues.  What is an Early Start League?  It is a league that starts play before the USTA year begins (normal year is roughly November thru October).

The idea is that if a league starts play before year-end ratings are out, for example a 2014 mixed doubles league that starts in September, players that are well on their way to being bumped up or bumped down at year end should play in the Early Start League using their new rating instead of their old rating.  The Early Start Rating is basically a snapshot of the Dynamic Rating at a point in time.

How about an example.

Say a player is a 3.5 in 2012 year-end ratings and has had a great 2013 adult league season and improved their Dynamic Rating to 3.7.  This is well into the range for a 4.0 and indicates they are likely to be bumped up at the end of the year.  Because the 2014 mixed and senior leagues start play before 2013 year-end ratings come out, it wouldn't be fair to let this player enter those leagues and play well into 2014 as a 3.5.  So, because their Dynamic Rating at the time Early Start Ratings come out is 3.7, they are given an Early Start Rating of 4.0 and must play 2014 mixed and senior leagues as a 4.0.

Correspondingly, a player may have their rating go down and receive an Early Start Rating down a level and be permitted to play the Early Start Leagues at that level.

Note that an Early Start Rating does not guarantee that a player will stay bumped up or down in the year-end ratings.  Year-end ratings will include additional matches played after Early Start Ratings come out and also incorporate benchmark calculations which can move a rating up or down.

So stay tuned for the ratings to come out.  And if you want to know before or after why your rating ended up where it is, an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Report is a great way to find out.  Contact me to learn more.

Update: I just found out that the early start ratings should be out this evening (7/2) and will include matches played through 6/25.

Northwest Washington 40 & over playoffs in less than two weeks

In the Northwest Washington District of the Pacific Northwest Section of the USTA, we have local playoffs for most flights to determine the team to advance to Sectionals.  The 18 & over league had their playoffs last month, and the 40 & over league playoffs are coming up July 11-14.

If you are on a team headed to local playoffs, an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Team Report can be a useful way to assess the members of your team and a great way to scout the opposition.  Or if you just want more details on yourself or a specific player, individual reports provide all the match by match details of how a player's rating has changed throughout the year.

Contact me if interested in either.

Atlanta added as a USTA area I've done Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports for

Tennis is popular in Atlanta, and I've had several players from there purchase reports recently to find out their Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating.  I'll update the map soon, but more and more of the country is in my database and I'll be posting additional lists soon too.

As always, contact me if you want your own report or if you are interested in team report.

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports for USTA League Teams Updated

I wrote awhile back about some new reports I'd come up with, but the example captains/team report included there is now dated as I've updated and improved the information provided.  See this example for the latest format and content of the team report.

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports in more USTA areas

I've had a busy week with some report requests from some new areas coming in for not just individual reports but also team reports.  I have now added the Missouri Valley (Tulsa), Inter-Mountain (Las Vegas), Texas (Houston), and Pacific Northwest (Portland) as areas that have taken advantage of team reports.

In all cases, these reports are for teams heading to or advancing in USTA League playoffs and they are wanting to get an idea of how their team stacks up against the competition.  A team report can be useful not just for your own team, but also on opponents to scout the strength of their roster in general and to try to identify trends on who plays on which court.

Having this added intelligence helped a team in Northern California win their District and then Section and they are headed to Nationals this fall.

Contact me if you are interested in individual or team reports.

Estimated Dynamic NTRP List for Houston

I've done a number of reports for players in the Houston area and have published a list of my ratings for players there through April 1st of this year.  See that list here.