Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over Mixed 10.0

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is continuing my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-16 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 18 & Over Mixed 10.0 that is coming up this weekend in Mobile, AL.

What is unique about this level is that there are just 9 teams attending so this doesn't have the same dynamics the larger events do.  Each team will play half of the potential opponents rather than just a quarter.

Given there are fewer teams, there is no chance of four undefeated, let alone more than that.  There is also less chance of large ties, just a 27% chance of a tie for 4th, although when it happens it will be between three teams 61% of the time.

The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:

• Texas - 99%
• Southern Cal - 99%
• Northern Cal - 97%
• Intermountain - 90%

Those four teams separate themselves by a clear margin, but just the top two teams have a most likely record of 4-0.  Just one team, Florida, has a most likely record of 2-2 behind these, but the simulation says New England has a similar chance at making the semis.

If the four teams predicted make the semis, Texas would be favored over Intermountain and SoCal over NorCal, with Texas the pick in the final.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over Mixed 7.0

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is continuing my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-16 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 18 & Over Mixed 7.0 that is coming up this weekend in Mobile, AL.

First, there is just a 0.2% chance of five teams finishing undefeated, so it is possible an undefeated team is sent home, but doubt it will happen here.  There is a 7% chance of four 4-0 teams though.

The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:

• Pacific Northwest - 95%
• Texas - 94%
• Florida - 86%
• Northern Cal - 81%

Those four teams separate themselves, and the most likely record for three of them is 4-0, and only NorCal is predicted to be 3-1.  Behind them is a 6-way tie at 2-2, so it is certainly possible another team jumps up to 3-1 and we have the tie-breakers come into play.  The teams most likely to do that are Southern Cal, Southern, Midwest, Hawaii, and Eastern, with New England, a long shot.

If the four teams predicted make the semis, PNW would be favored over NorCal and Texas over Florida, with Texas the pick in the final.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over Mixed 9.0

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is the first of my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-16 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 18 & Over Mixed 9.0 that is coming up this weekend in Mobile, AL.

First, there is just a 0.5% chance of five teams finishing undefeated, so it is possible an undefeated team is sent home, but doubt it will happen here.  There is a 6% chance of four 4-0 teams though.

The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:

• Southern Cal - 94%
• Southern - 94%
• Texas - 79%
• Mid-Atlantic - 71%

Those four teams separate themselves, but the most likely record for the last two is 3-1, and behind them is a 5-way tie at 2-2, so it is certainly possible another team jumps up to 3-1 and we have the tie-breakers come into play.  The teams most likely to do that are Northern, Intermountain and NorCal with Middle States a long shot.

If the four teams predicted make the semis, SoCal would be favored over Mid-Atlantic and Southern over Texas, with SoCal the pick in the final

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

USTA League 18 & Over Mixed Nationals in Mobile this weekend - Gotta check the weather

USTA League Nationals gets going again this weekend with the first Mixed Nationals, these in the 18 & Over division with all levels, 6.0 thru 10.0, being played in Mobile.

Having a Nationals in Mobile makes us have to do the requisite weather check, and while Mobile avoided weather a few weeks ago for 40 & Over 3.0, the forecast is a little iffy four days away from the event.

Here is the forecast for this weekend.

That 80% chance of rain/thunderstorms on Friday isn't encouraging, but it is better than the forecast the three days prior!

Let's hope the storm passes through quickly and clears out in time to get full matches played.

What will help a bit is no event has the full 17 sections attending so that reduces the number of matches to be played.  Still, with 5 events, there are 71 teams that have to play 4 matches each which is 142 team matches, or 426 courts.

Here is hoping they get it all in!

No USTA League Nationals this weekend, but Mixed Nationals the following two weekends

We had a flurry of Nationals all four weekends in October, but we get a break this weekend before 2018 Nationals wraps up with 18 & Over Mixed next weekend in Mobile, and 40 & Over Mixed the following weekend in Orlando.

The new format for Nationals has gotten a lot of positive feedback and now we get to see how it will work for Mixed.  One thing that is different for Mixed from most of the others is just three courts are played, vs five courts for nearly all the Adult Nationals.  Just three courts can make for closer team scoring, so it might make for closer standings and more tie-breakers being used to determine who advances.

For those headed to Mixed Nationals, I can do reports to help you scout and prepare just like I did for Adult Nationals.  And I'm pleased to say that a number of teams that got reports did make the semis, and there were even two that won it all.  My reports don't guarantee success, but they can help you maximize your chances.  Contact me if interested.

USTA Mid-Atlantic to build a new facility and headquarters in Virginia

This is sort of old news, the USTA release on the topic was earlier this year, but I just saw a new headline pop up about it and I hadn't written about it, so here goes!

We know Mid-Atlantic has a very popular USTA League population with the opportunity for players to play in multiple areas and districts given the close proximity of Maryland/Virginia/D.C. and the counties in each state, and the USTA cites growth among all participation of over 9% since 2012.

The site for the facility is in Prince William County and will provide indoor and outdoor courts and be the new headquarters for Section staff.  Construction of the $15 million project is expected to kickoff in 2020 and by completed by 2022.

Note: The original post mistakenly said Maryland in the subject, thanks to a reader for pointing out the correction.

USTA League Adult Nationals are done for 2018, let the count down to year-end ratings commence!

USTA League Adult Nationals were completed for 2018 yesterday with the last of the 40 & Over levels finishing up in Las Vegas and Mobile, and the last of the 55 & Over finishing up in Orlando.

The 18 & Over and 40 & Over Mixed Nationals are still to be played the second two weekends in November, but since those matches only count for players that get Mixed-exclusive ratings, the 2018 ratings year is effectively done for everyone that played at least three Adult league matches.

The next big event then is the publishing of year-end ratings.  That typically happens the week after Thanksgiving, but with Thanksgiving being early in the month this year, I'm not sure if that is what we should expect, or if the normally anticipated first Monday in December is the date.  I will do some investigation and report what I learn.

Note of course, even when there is a target date, it isn't a sure thing and the actual publishing date can move around a bit.  Last year though, there was a countdown timer on TennisLink, will we get that again?

Should you be interested in where your rating may be, or just want to get more information on how you've done in 2018, now is a great time to get one of my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating reports.

And it is never too early to start recruiting for next year.  In some areas, 2019 leagues that use the 2018 year-end ratings will start at the beginning of January and there isn't a whole lot of time from when ratings are published to when rosters have to be turned in and matches are played.  I can do a variety of team or recruiting reports, or lists of ratings for an area, to help captains identify who is likely to be at what level and who the highest rated players are so they can seek them out to join their team.

If you are interested in any of my reports, contact me for more information.