No big changes from last week's projections, but perhaps somewhat surprisingly Denver and Houston are projected to get the byes in the AFC despite them both losing to the Patriots this year and New England being #1 in the rankings this week. This is in large part because they host the 49ers next week while Denver does have to go to Baltimore but then gets Cleveland and Kansas City.
The wildcards in the AFC are projected to be Indianapolis and then one of Pittsburgh or Cincinnati. The latter two are both projected at 9-7 but the nod presently goes to the Steelers based on the better chance of 9-7 and 10-6, although if they both finish 9-7 and Cincy gets there by beating Pittsburgh, they could have the tie-breaker advantage.
There is presently no drama in the NFC with both Seattle and Chicago being clear of Dallas and Washington and the Giants as well being at 10-6 ahead of them.
I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Denver | 13-3 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 47.7 |
| Atlanta | 13-3 | 44.6 | 23.6 | 26.8 |
| Houston | 13-3 | 43.2 | 41.3 | 14.0 |
| New England | 12-4 | 43.1 | 43.1 | 12.6 |
| San Francisco | 11-4-1 | 41.1 | 12.6 | 38.0 |
| Green Bay | 11-5 | 45.5 | 19.9 | 29.9 |
| Indianapolis | 10-6 | 48.9 | 28.9 | 17.9 |
| NY Giants | 10-6 | 45.5 | 18.4 | 31.8 |
| Seattle | 10-6 | 44.3 | 23.4 | 27.0 |
| Chicago | 10-6 | 41.2 | 17.2 | 32.9 |
| Baltimore | 10-6 | 38.6 | 36.4 | 13.6 |
| Dallas | 9-7 | 44.6 | 15.3 | 32.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 9-7 | 44.3 | 15.7 | 33.2 |
| Washington | 9-7 | 44.1 | 22.7 | 27.6 |
| Cincinnati | 9-7 | 39.9 | 13.9 | 35.9 |
| Minnesota | 8-8 | 45.6 | 24.5 | 26.1 |
| NY Jets | 8-8 | 40.1 | 15.0 | 35.0 |
| St Louis | 7-8-1 | 43.2 | 33.5 | 15.7 |
| San Diego | 7-9 | 47.1 | 19.9 | 28.8 |
| Miami | 7-9 | 46.5 | 9.2 | 37.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 7-9 | 43.0 | 33.6 | 16.1 |
| Cleveland | 6-10 | 47.9 | 14.2 | 37.1 |
| Buffalo | 6-10 | 42.4 | 32.0 | 17.8 |
| Carolina | 6-10 | 41.7 | 12.7 | 38.7 |
| New Orleans | 6-10 | 39.9 | 37.5 | 12.8 |
| Philadelphia | 5-11 | 45.5 | 18.4 | 34.0 |
| Tennessee | 5-11 | 44.9 | 34.5 | 14.8 |
| Arizona | 5-11 | 44.6 | 30.8 | 18.8 |
| Detroit | 5-11 | 41.9 | 31.7 | 18.5 |
| Oakland | 4-12 | 53.1 | 20.6 | 24.0 |
| Kansas City | 3-13 | 45.4 | 13.2 | 41.1 |
| Jacksonville | 3-13 | 43.0 | 13.5 | 42.2 |
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