A recap of week 3 of 2024 USTA League Nationals Mixed

Week 3 of this year's USTA League Nationals is in the books, and we have nine new Nationals Champions.

The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with all of the 18 & Over Mixed being played this weekend, plus a few 55 & Over events.  A recap of 55 & Over will follow, here are the Mixed recaps.

The 18 & Over Mixed 6.0 was played in Surprise and three 4-0 teams made the semis in Florida, Hawaii, and Southwest, and they were joined by Middle States, perhaps fortunate to get in ahead of PNW on the broken standings tie-breaker as they were tied on sets lost and PNW won more sets, but the USTA doesn't consider won sets.  Middle States won their semi over Flordai 2-1 as did Hawaii over Southwest, and then Hawaii won the title.  The simulation had Southwest and Middle States as the top-2 favorites with Hawaii and contender and Florida just outside that group.

Also in Surprise was the 18 & Over Mixed 8.0 and they also had three 4-0 teams in PNW, Hawaii, and SoCal with New England joining the group at 3-1 winning the courts tie-breaker.  In the semis PNW beat New England and SoCal beat Hawaii before PNW took the title.  The simulation had Hawaii as a favorite and the other three semifinalists as contenders.

Last in Surprise was the 18 & Over Mixed 10.0 and with just 10 teams competing, fourth place was a 2-2 NorCal team that joined 3-1 SoCal and MoValley and 4-0 Intermountain.  NorCal pulled the upset over Intermountain in one semi while SoCal won the other, and no winner is listed on TennisLink although the 3rd/4th match does show a winner.  The simulation had SoCal, Intermountain, and NorCal as the top-3 favorites, just MoValley the surprise to make the semis.

Orlando also hosted 18 & Over Mixed with the 7.0 there and Caribbean and SoCal advancing as 4-0 teams joined by 3-1 Hawaii and Mid-Atlantic.  Mid-Atlantic pulled the upset in the semis to face SoCal with SoCal coming out on top.  The simulation liked SoCal as the top favorite, but also Hawaii there too, and Mid-Atlantic and Caribbean as contenders so it did pretty well.

And in the 18 & Over Mixed 9.0, three 4-0 teams advanced with Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern, which were joined by solitary 3-1 New England.  Florida and Mid-Atlantic won their semis and Mid-Atlantic took the title.  The simulation had Florida and Mid-Atlantic as two of the favorites with Southern and New England both as contenders, so again a good prediction.

Congratulations to all the champions.

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 7.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 18 & Over 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 Mixed in Surprise, and 55 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 7.0 Mixed.

Teams: 16 (NorCal missing)
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 82% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.62 / 3.37
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.53 / 3.45
Favorites: Hawaii, Middle States, SoCal
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Southwest, Texas

Again, a very competitive event it appears with a very low chance of a lot of 4-0 teams, just one projected to have that record.  But it will likely still take a 3-1 record to make the semis, but there are a lot of contenders vying for it.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 9.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 18 & Over 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 Mixed in Surprise, and 55 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 9.0 Mixed.

Teams: 14
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 68% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.52 / 4.25
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.44 / 4.32
Favorites: Eastern, Florida, Mid-Atlantic
Contenders: Intermountain, Middle States, Midwest, MoValley, New England, NorCal, Southern

This event is wide open with no team having a most likely record of 4-0, although two of the teams have a greater than 30% chance of doing so.  Then I don't think I've ever seen this long a list of contenders and there is a chance there is a tie at 2-2 for the last spot which I believe would be a first.

What do you think?