Schmidt Computer Ratings

Baltimore at New England 2012 Playoff Preview - New England to win, Baltimore to cover but it is close

2012-01-21T13:27:00.000-08:00

Baltimore plays at New England on 1/22 in the AFC Championship.

Baltimore is ranked #5 by the computer with a 13-4 record and a rating of 85.745 against a schedule strength of 80.597. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent except in their losses, their worst game being at San Diego and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 8-8-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-10-1 picking their games against the spread and 11-6 picking winners in their games.

New England is ranked #1 by the computer with a 14-3 record and a rating of 89.360 against a schedule strength of 80.764. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down but pretty good late, their worst game being against NY Giants and best game being at Philadelphia. They are 10-7 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-11 picking their games against the spread and 13-4 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

2 Baltimore-->Indianapolis-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->San_Diego-->New_England

The spread is New England by 7.5 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 6.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Baltimore +7.5 over *x New England 6.6 0.9 0.707 0.529

But digging deeper, looking at their last 4 games, even with the down game against Miami, New England averages 92.3 ratings points, higher than their 89.4 rating for the year. With that rating, we'd expect New England to cover as well as win.

Even if we look at Baltimore's last 3, they are a tick up from their season rating at 86.9, but with having to go to New England it is hard to see how one would pick the upset and even taking the 7.5 may be iffy.

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Giants at San Francisco 2012 Playoff Preview - San Francisco to win and cover, except ...

2012-01-21T13:15:00.000-08:00

The Giants plays at San Francisco on 1/22 in the NFC championship.

New York is ranked #6 by the computer with a 11-7 record and a rating of 85.342 against a schedule strength of 83.010. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down but are up now, their worst game being against Washington and best game being last week at Green Bay. They are 10-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-9-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-11 picking winners in their games.

San Francisco is ranked #4 by the computer with a 14-3 record and a rating of 87.689 against a schedule strength of 80.824. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent, their worst game being against Dallas and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 13-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 13-4 picking winners in their games.

The teams played earlier in the year the 49ers winning 27-20 at home and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

2 NY_Giants-->Arizona-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Arizona-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Dallas-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Dallas-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Seattle-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Seattle-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Washington-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Washington-->San_Francisco

The spread is San Francisco by 2 and the computer agrees picking them by over 5. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xSan Francisco -2.0 over . NY Giants 5.3 3.3 0.677 0.613

But, let's dig deeper.

While San Francisco has been pretty consistent, the Giants have been all over the place, but very good lately. In their last 4, the Giants average rating is a whopping 97.9 which is better than the 49ers best game hosting Pittsburgh (97.6) and well ahead of the 49ers 87.7 rating and even the average of their best 4 games (94.1).

So if the Giants play at that level, the game would actually be a Giants pick against anything other than the 49ers single best game.

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

College Basketball Week 11 Ratings and Rankings - Syracuse back to #1

2012-01-16T22:53:00.000-08:00

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Syracuse narrowly moves back to #1 this week, but the big moves is at #3 and #4 with two Big-12 teams jumping up. Florida also makes a big move to #10.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Syracuse	87.758	19-0	70.994	+1, +0.620
2	Ohio State	87.573	16-3	71.260	-1, -0.864
3	Baylor	86.516	16-0	70.914	+5, +1.537
4	Missouri	85.618	16-1	68.921	+3, +0.269
5	Kansas	85.347	14-3	72.967	-1, -0.599
6	Michigan St	84.849	15-3	72.436	+0, -0.598
7	Kentucky	84.839	17-1	69.234	-4, -1.645
8	Duke	83.822	15-2	74.771	+2, -0.511
9	North Carolina	83.016	15-3	70.543	-4, -2.626
10	Florida	82.992	14-4	70.749	+9, +1.186
11	St Mary's CA	82.928	15-2	69.369	+3, +0.486
12	UNLV	82.776	14-3	71.908	+0, -0.510
13	Kansas St	82.553	12-4	72.842	-4, -1.966
14	Alabama	81.968	13-4	72.674	+1, -0.169
15	Seton Hall	81.935	15-3	72.016	+5, +0.277
16	Creighton	81.906	16-2	70.969	+7, +0.564
17	Indiana	81.561	15-3	71.643	-6, -2.713
18	Virginia	81.512	14-2	68.068	+9, +0.523
19	West Virginia	81.281	13-5	73.308	+6, +0.256
20	Wichita St	81.221	14-3	71.383	+6, +0.220
21	New Mexico	81.201	14-2	68.828	+9, +0.927
22	Wisconsin	81.188	14-5	71.551	+2, -0.084
23	Brigham Young	81.171	13-4	69.973	+5, +0.517
24	California	81.118	15-4	69.773	-2, -0.385
25	Murray St	81.080	15-0	68.723	-12, -1.760

Week 19 NFL Ratings and Rankings - New #1 New England

2012-01-15T17:02:00.000-08:00

The NFL ratings after week 19 are now posted here and below.

And there are some changes. With Green Bay's loss and New England's win, New England is the new #1. Despite their loss, New Orleans remains #2. San Francisco is a close #4 and the other teams in the conference championship games are #5 and #6.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	89.360	14-3	80.764	+2, +0.616
2	New Orleans	88.567	14-4	80.583	+0, -0.386
3	Green Bay	88.547	15-2	80.768	-2, -1.868
4	San Francisco	87.689	14-3	80.824	+0, +0.496
5	Baltimore	85.745	13-4	80.597	+0, +0.260
6	NY Giants	85.342	11-7	83.010	+3, +1.533
7	Pittsburgh	85.219	12-5	80.983	-1, +0.081
8	Philadelphia	84.607	8-8	81.996	-1, +0.412
9	Detroit	83.728	10-7	82.465	-1, -0.405
10	Houston	83.519	11-7	80.294	+0, -0.244
11	Atlanta	82.974	10-7	81.528	+0, -0.124
12	San Diego	82.597	8-8	81.426	+0, -0.206
13	NY Jets	82.259	8-8	82.131	+1, +0.241
14	Seattle	82.108	7-9	81.682	+2, +0.278
15	Miami	82.034	6-10	81.991	+0, +0.191
16	Chicago	81.947	8-8	81.767	-3, -0.387
17	Dallas	81.649	8-8	81.909	+0, +0.437
18	Cincinnati	81.068	9-8	81.152	+0, +0.047
19	Tennessee	80.873	9-7	80.080	+0, -0.103
20	Arizona	80.167	8-8	81.423	+2, +0.268
21	Denver	79.771	9-9	82.348	-1, -0.468
22	Carolina	79.711	6-10	80.983	-1, -0.231
23	Oakland	79.405	8-8	81.656	+0, -0.235
24	Buffalo	79.170	6-10	82.468	+1, +0.179
25	Kansas City	78.756	7-9	81.676	-1, -0.240
26	Washington	78.118	5-11	82.305	+0, +0.394
27	Minnesota	77.178	3-13	82.024	+0, -0.345
28	Jacksonville	76.984	5-11	80.936	+0, -0.089
29	Cleveland	76.508	4-12	81.543	+0, +0.072
30	St Louis	74.013	2-14	83.456	+2, +0.197
31	Tampa Bay	73.877	4-12	82.591	-1, -0.175
32	Indianapolis	73.831	2-14	81.534	-1, -0.100

Houston at Baltimore 2012 Playoff Preview - Baltimore to win, Houston to cover

2012-01-14T14:49:00.000-08:00

Houston plays at Baltimore on 1/15 in a divisional playoff game.

Houston is ranked #10 by the computer with a 11-6 record and a rating of 83.763 against a schedule strength of 79.858. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very consistent mid-year but had some down times, their worst game being against Carolina and best game being at Tennessee. They are 11-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-7 picking their games against the spread and 11-6 picking winners in their games.

Baltimore is ranked #5 by the computer with a 12-4 record and a rating of 85.485 against a schedule strength of 80.531. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, their worst game being at San Diego and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 8-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-10-1 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.

The teams played head to head week 6 Baltimore winning 29-14 and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

2 Houston-->Cincinnati-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Cincinnati-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Baltimore

The spread is Baltimore by 8 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 4.7. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Houston +8.0 over *x Baltimore 4.7 3.3 0.639 0.598

But let's dig deeper.

Houston had 5 clear bad games, if we remove those their ratings average is 89.6. Their problem is that we'd be removing 3 of their last 4 games. The good news is their last game was their second best of the year. Houston actually rates better on the road, an 85.7 average.

If we similarly drop Baltimore's 4 losses, their average rating is 90.1, a bit better than Houston's. At home their rating average is 89.7, better than their road average.

So, it is probably hard to see how Houston has a great shot at the win, but it could be close. Taking the points certainly looks promising.

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

New York Giants at Green Bay 2012 Playoff Preview - Green Bay to win and cover

2012-01-14T14:39:00.000-08:00

New York plays at Green Bay on 1/15 in a divisional playoff game.

New York is ranked #9 by the computer with a 10-7 record and a rating of 83.809 against a schedule strength of 82.357. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down, their worst game being against Washington and best game being against Atlanta. They are 9-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-8-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-10 picking winners in their games.

Green Bay is ranked #1 by the computer with a 15-1 record and a rating of 90.415 against a schedule strength of 80.833. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were far more consistent save a couple down games late in the season, their worst game being at Kansas City and best game being at Detroit. They are 11-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 15-1 picking winners in their games.

The teams played head to head and are separated by 2 degrees through as follows:

1 NY_Giants-->Green_Bay
2 NY_Giants-->New_Orleans-->Green_Bay
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->Green_Bay

The spread is Green Bay by 7.5 and the computer says it should be more, picking them by 9.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xGreen_Bay -7.5 over . NY_Giants 9.6 2.1 0.803 0.574

But let's dig deeper.

The Giants are clearly not a consistent team. If they play like their last 3, they are playing quite well. Their average rating over that span is an impressive 95.8. And their average in their best 5 games is an even more impressive 96.3. However, at their worst, they are pretty bad, their worst 5 averaging 69.7.

New Orleans cannot boast such highs or lows. Their worst 5 average 83.5 and their best 5 average 95.8. Their last 3 average just 85.0.

So should the average of both teams show up, the computer's pick looks solid. But based on the best of both teams, the game should be very close, and if the season ending trends hold up, you have to like the Giants.

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011/2012 College Bowl Games: A final look at how the conferences performed

2012-01-10T10:01:00.000-08:00

Here is the final look at how the conferences performed in the 2011/2012 bowl games. This analysis isn't just looking at win/loss record, but looks at how the conferences should have done based on each game.

The rationale for this is that the actual record alone doesn't tell the whole story. If a conference is having a down year and/or gets some matchups that aren't favorable, you'd expect a poor record so even a 0.500 record may be an indication the conference did well or at least better than expected. Thus comparing the actual with expected record is useful, as is looking at how a conference does against the spread, as that tells you if the teams did better/worse than Vegas and the public bettors expected.

The table below has the totals for 34 bowls (BCS Championship game not included since it was SEC vs SEC) and lists the expected record based on Vegas' individual game picks, the record based on my computer's individual game picks, the record my computer said was most likely for the conference taking into account the chance of winning each game and the possible permutations, and then the actual record and record against the spread. The list is ordered by Vegas expected record.

Conference	Vegas	Computer	Most Likely	Actual	ATS
SEC	7-0	7-0	5-2	5-2	4-3
Big-12	6-2	7-1	6-2	6-2	6-2
Sun Belt	2-1	1-2	1-2	1-2	1-2
Mtn West	3-2	3-2	3-2	2-3	2-3
ACC	4-4	2-6	3-5	2-6	3-5
Independents	1-1	1-1	1-1	1-1	0-1-1
MAC	2-3	4-1	3-2	4-1	3-2
C-USA	2-3	3-2	3-2	4-1	4-0-1
Big-East	2-3	1-4	2-3	3-2	3-2
WAC	1-2	1-2	1-2	0-3	1-2
B1G	3-7	1-9	4-6	4-6	4-6
Pac-12	1-6	3-4	3-4	2-5	2-5

The SEC was supposed to go undefeated but didn't, going 5-2. That wasn't really unexpected, my computer said that 5-2 was the most likely record. And the SEC did go 4-3 against the spread so all in all the SEC did about what was expected.

Similarly, the Big-12 was supposed to go 6-2 and did, although they did go 6-2 against the spread so beating expectations there. My computer had the SEC and Big-12 in a virtual tie for the best conference and the bowl games did nothing to contradict that.

Behind them, the only other conferences expected to do better than 0.500 by Vegas were the Sun Belt and Mountain West, but neither did. The Sun Belt did what my computer said they would, 1-2, and the Mountain West was a game worse than expected. These are weaker conferences and did nothing to show that perception wasn't true.

The other major conferences also did about what was expected. The ACC probably underachieved a bit, Vegas expecting 4-4, but my computer said 2-6/3-5 and they finished 2-6. They went 3-5 against the spread though so probably a slight underachievement.

The BigTen was expected to be 3-7 by Vegas, the most likely record according to my computer though was 4-6 and they did that.

And the Pac-12 went 2-5, better than Vegas' 1-6, but worse than my computer's 3-4.

So there you have it. A look at how the conferences really did in the bowl games.

College Basketball Week 10 Ratings and Rankings

2012-01-10T00:01:00.000-08:00

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Due to the closeness at the top and a few big wins, there is a swap at the top. Ohio State thrashed their two opponents and while Syracuse also won two games, they were closer and Ohio State moves to #1. The big mover in the top-10 is Kansas moving to #4 after beating two top-50 teams.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Ohio State	88.437	15-2	70.572	+1, +0.844
2	Syracuse	87.138	17-0	70.351	-1, -0.918
3	Kentucky	86.484	15-1	69.286	+0, -0.372
4	Kansas	85.946	12-3	73.562	+9, +2.330
5	North Carolina	85.642	14-2	69.699	+1, -0.552
6	Michigan St	85.447	14-2	71.777	+1, +0.107
7	Missouri	85.349	14-1	67.605	-3, -1.009
8	Baylor	84.979	14-0	69.745	-3, -1.338
9	Kansas St	84.519	12-2	71.956	+3, +0.850
10	Duke	84.333	13-2	74.441	-1, -0.409
11	Indiana	84.274	15-1	70.890	-3, -0.508
12	UNLV	83.286	14-2	71.621	+4, -0.036
13	Murray St	82.840	13-0	69.995	+2, -0.728
14	St Mary's CA	82.442	12-2	69.837	-3, -1.308
15	Alabama	82.137	12-3	72.252	+12, +1.552
16	Georgetown DC	82.095	12-2	71.516	-2, -1.495
17	Gonzaga	82.089	13-2	70.526	+5, +0.487
18	Michigan	82.061	12-3	70.740	+20, +2.711
19	Florida	81.806	12-4	70.609	-9, -2.130
20	Seton Hall	81.658	14-2	71.459	+6, +0.930
21	St Louis U.	81.587	12-3	68.998	-3, -0.938
22	California	81.503	13-4	70.855	-1, -0.101
23	Creighton	81.342	13-2	70.257	-4, -0.758
24	Wisconsin	81.272	12-5	71.074	-7, -1.868
25	West Virginia	81.025	12-4	72.959	+15, +1.855

College Football Week 20 and Final 2011/2012 Ratings and Rankings

2012-01-09T23:50:00.000-08:00

Here are the week 20 and final college football ratings and rankings.

Alabama moves to #1 swapping places with LSU and Oklahoma State remains #3 but over 6 points back. According to the computer, the 2 best teams played in the BCS title game and based on the thumping they gave LSU, Alabama is the clear #1.

No real changes elsewhere with just 2 games played since the week 19 ratings. The full list is on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	96.146	12-1	73.309	+1, +3.498
2	LSU	93.996	13-1	74.849	-1, -2.550
3	Oklahoma St	87.469	12-1	73.527	+0, +0.020
4	Oregon	85.555	12-2	70.315	+0, -0.245
5	Arkansas	85.440	11-2	72.006	+0, +0.191
6	Boise St	84.083	12-1	65.853	+0, +0.012
7	Oklahoma	83.400	10-3	73.509	+0, +0.043
8	Stanford	82.547	11-2	69.881	+0, -0.069
9	Wisconsin	82.006	11-3	67.684	+0, +0.104
10	South Carolina	80.691	11-2	70.865	+0, +0.078
11	Southern Cal	79.610	10-2	70.165	+0, -0.064
12	Georgia	79.461	10-4	71.800	+0, -0.095
13	Texas A&M	79.137	7-6	73.163	+0, +0.054
14	Baylor	79.007	10-3	71.933	+0, +0.033
15	Michigan	78.792	11-2	68.508	+0, +0.034
16	Houston	78.521	13-1	62.654	+0, -0.042
17	Missouri	78.000	8-5	71.628	+0, +0.042
18	TCU	77.951	11-2	64.542	+0, -0.005
19	Michigan St	77.821	11-3	68.478	+0, +0.044
20	Kansas St	76.913	10-3	72.751	+0, +0.071
21	Texas	76.341	8-5	73.226	+0, +0.031
22	Florida St	76.103	9-4	65.445	+0, -0.003
23	Notre Dame	75.588	8-5	70.629	+0, -0.000
24	Southern Miss	75.425	12-2	63.247	+0, -0.060
25	Nebraska	74.880	9-4	70.325	+0, +0.051

2012 Superbowl Odds Using Who is Hot

2012-01-09T09:23:00.000-08:00

I've been posting odds of each team winning the Superbowl for awhile now, these odds based on the chances of winning each game along with all the potential matchups and the chances of each matchup occurring. I've also been using the season to date ratings as the input.

Now, my season to date ratings do give a little more weight to recent games, but certainly don't ignore the earlier games, which in some cases, like Denver, should be. Or in the case of New Orleans where they've gotten very hot late, continuing to include the earlier games can temper how high they get in the ratings. Or Green Bay built up a huge early lead and tailed off a bit late in the year, but perhaps they aren't really playing the best right now. Thus, the full season ratings, while pretty accurate, may not be as accurate as we'd like.

Ideally, one looks at the performance chart for a team and identifies trends and selects which games to consider including any mitigating factors. When this was done for Pittsburgh at Denver, we saw how one could have easily picked the upset.

As a quick way to look at the latter half of the season though, I've run my ratings for the last 8 weeks of the regular season plus the wildcard round of the playoffs. Doing this, New Orleans moves to #1 and New England to #2 ahead of #3 Green Bay. The Giants also move up to #6.

So, doing the Superbowl chances using these ratings, we get a slightly different picture.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
New England	0.708	0.370
New Orleans	0.403	0.267
Green Bay	0.350	0.178
San Francisco	0.165	0.076
Baltimore	0.190	0.053
NY Giants	0.081	0.034
Houston	0.055	0.011
Denver	0.047	0.010

Green Bay is no longer the favorite even with their home field advantage, not even in their own conference. New England is now the far and away favorite as they have the easier road. But despite their improvement, given that some future/potential opponents also improved, the Giants chances have gone down. Denver also had improved a bit but now has to go to an improved New England so their chances are down.

The NFC appears to have the stronger teams, 3 of the top 4 chances belonging to that conference and the conference itself having a 56% chance of winning the Superbowl.

For comparison, here is the full season ratings Superbowl chances.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
Green Bay	0.683	0.483
New England	0.706	0.395
New Orleans	0.198	0.126
San Francisco	0.190	0.110
Baltimore	0.241	0.105
Houston	0.123	0.047
NY Giants	0.087	0.040
Denver	0.075	0.020

Updated 2012 Superbowl Odds

2012-01-08T21:08:00.000-08:00

Here is the computer's updated chance of getting to and winning the Superbowl.

Home field advantage is still important, Green Bay and New England still being the favorites. New Orleans has a better chance than the 49ers though as they won their wildcard game and the computer rates them ahead of San Francisco, even though with home field advantage it picks the 49ers in their head to head matchup.

Denver and the Giants have the worst chances, below 6% of even getting to the Superbowl.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
Green Bay	0.556	0.345
New England	0.587	0.284
New Orleans	0.198	0.110
San Francisco	0.190	0.096
Baltimore	0.241	0.091
Houston	0.123	0.041
NY Giants	0.056	0.022
Denver	0.049	0.011

Update: corrected error 1/9 AM

Denver at New England 2012 Playoffs Preview - Patriots to win, Denver to cover

2012-01-08T20:46:00.001-08:00

Denver plays at New England on 1/14 in a divisional playoff game.

Denver is ranked #20 by the computer with a 9-8 record and a rating of 80.239 against a schedule strength of 81.942. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were down early, then up mostly with Tebow, but struggled to finish the regular season, their worst game being at Buffalo and best game being at Oakland. They are 9-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 13-4 picking their games against the spread and 9-8 picking winners in their games.

New England is ranked #3 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 88.744 against a schedule strength of 80.837. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they did have a few ups and downs, their worst game being against the Giants and best game being at Philadelphia. They are 9-7 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-10 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.

The teams played earlier in the year, New England wining, and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

2 Denver-->Buffalo-->New_England
2 Denver-->Buffalo-->New_England
2 Denver-->Kansas_City-->New_England
2 Denver-->Kansas_City-->New_England
2 Denver-->Miami-->New_England
2 Denver-->Miami-->New_England
2 Denver-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Denver-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Denver-->Oakland-->New_England
2 Denver-->Oakland-->New_England
2 Denver-->San_Diego-->New_England
2 Denver-->San_Diego-->New_England

The spread is New England by 14 and the computer agrees but by not quite that much picking the Patriots by 11.5. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Denver +14.0 over *x New England 11.5 2.5 0.824 0.580

But again, digging deeper. It seems like one of two Denver teams shows up with Tebow. In the 8 wins over their last 12, the average rating is 87.7 with a high of 93.4. Over those 12, on the road they average 84.7 and at home just 78.2. In the 3 road wins the average is 85.5.

New England was down a bit with their back to back losses, but in the 8 games since has averaged 91.5. Interestingly, they've done better on the road with a 95.1 average vs 88.0 at home.

Based on this, if the good Denver shows up (87.7) and the late season home Patriots show up (88.0), the game could be close. It would be hard to outright pick and upset though. 14 points is certainly attractive though unless you think the bad Denver is going to show up (70.9).

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Week 18 NFL Ratings and Rankings - New Orleans creeps closer

2012-01-08T20:44:00.000-08:00

The NFL ratings after week 18 are now posted here and below.

With their win, the Saints move into the #2 spot continuing their strong finish to the season. The Giants also made a move up into the top-10 based on their big win.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Green Bay	90.415	15-1	80.833	+0, +0.024
2	New Orleans	88.953	14-3	80.182	+1, +0.435
3	New England	88.744	13-3	80.837	-1, +0.217
4	San Francisco	87.193	13-3	80.269	+0, -0.135
5	Baltimore	85.485	12-4	80.531	+1, -0.270
6	Pittsburgh	85.138	12-5	80.903	-1, -0.924
7	Philadelphia	84.195	8-8	81.579	+2, +0.177
8	Detroit	84.133	10-7	82.860	-1, -0.444
9	NY Giants	83.809	10-7	82.357	+3, +1.196
10	Houston	83.763	11-6	79.858	+0, +0.556
11	Atlanta	83.098	10-7	81.699	-3, -0.964
12	San Diego	82.803	8-8	81.644	-1, +0.087
13	Chicago	82.334	8-8	82.181	+0, -0.034
14	NY Jets	82.018	8-8	81.896	+2, +0.257
15	Miami	81.843	6-10	81.770	+2, +0.268
16	Seattle	81.830	7-9	81.392	-1, -0.116
17	Dallas	81.212	8-8	81.498	+2, +0.231
18	Cincinnati	81.021	9-8	81.094	-4, -0.956
19	Tennessee	80.976	9-7	80.181	-1, -0.086
20	Denver	80.239	9-8	81.942	+2, +0.704
21	Carolina	79.942	6-10	81.248	-1, -0.097
22	Arizona	79.899	8-8	81.135	-1, -0.095
23	Oakland	79.640	8-8	81.892	+0, +0.145
24	Kansas City	78.996	7-9	81.902	+0, +0.093
25	Buffalo	78.991	6-10	82.239	+0, +0.221
26	Washington	77.724	5-11	81.890	+1, +0.226
27	Minnesota	77.523	3-13	82.444	-1, -0.006
28	Jacksonville	77.073	5-11	81.018	+0, -0.124
29	Cleveland	76.436	4-12	81.453	+0, -0.248
30	Tampa Bay	74.052	4-12	82.846	+0, -0.096
31	Indianapolis	73.931	2-14	81.593	+0, -0.118
32	St Louis	73.816	2-14	83.265	+0, -0.093

New Orleans at San Francisco 2012 Playoff Preview - 49ers in the upset, but deeper analysis may say otherwise

2012-01-08T19:40:00.000-08:00

New Orleans plays at San Francisco on 1/14 in a divisional playoff game.

New Orleans is ranked #2 by the computer with a 14-3 record and a rating of 88.953 against a schedule strength of 80.182. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were consistent and improving, but for a few games, their worst game being at St Louis and best game being against the Giants. They are 13-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-12 picking their games against the spread and 13-4 picking winners in their games.

San Francisco is ranked #4 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 87.193 against a schedule strength of 80.269. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were more consistent but still had a few down games, their worst game being against Dallas and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 12-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through ? as follows:

2 New_Orleans-->Detroit-->San_Francisco
2 New_Orleans-->NY_Giants-->San_Francisco
2 New_Orleans-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 New_Orleans-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->San_Francisco
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->San_Francisco

The spread is New Orleans by 4 and the computer disagrees picking the 49ers by 1.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xSan Francisco +4.0 over . New Orleans 1.2 5.2 0.540 0.663

Having said that, as I explained in the Denver vs Pittsburgh analysis, one could have predicted a Denver upset by digger deeper. What can be said about this game?

At their best, against the Giants, New Orleans rated 99.2 points. The 49ers best against Pittsburgh was 97.5, so a slight advantage to the Saints.

At their worst, against St. Louis, New Orleans rated 66.2 points. The 49ers worst against Dallas was 74.4, a big advantage to the 49ers.

But how are they playing now? Over their last 7 weeks since their bye, the Saints are averaging a 95.5 rating and this pulled them up from #9 their bye week to a very close #2. Their low during that period on the road at Tennessee was 89.4.

The 49ers have been fairly consistent although they dipped slightly at the end of the year with the 2 losses, although those losses weren't as bad as the Dallas loss early in the season. Their average over their last 7 is just 86.9 and their best result that helps pull the average up that high was a 97.5 over Pittsburgh with an injured QB. But if we given them the benefit of the doubt and go back 9 games the average is only pulled up to 87.2. So big advantage to the Saints.

What about home vs road? New Orleans road average is 83.8, their 3 losses all being on the road. And only 2 of their games in this 7 game streak have been on the road. In their last 3 road games, their average is 90.9.

At home, the 49ers average 88.8, over their last 4 it is 91.9, the early season Dallas game being the one pulling the overall average down. This seems to discount some of the Saints late season surge as being due to some home cooking and making the game seem pretty close again.

So, the computer does think the Saints are the better team rating them higher based on the entire season, but likes the 49ers at home a bit. Even if you factor in the Saints strong finish, one can see how they can win but on the road the 4 points may be enticing for a fan of the 49ers.

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Should we have seen the Denver upset over Pittsburgh coming?

2012-01-08T17:17:00.000-08:00

So Denver just beat Pittsburgh 29-23 in overtime. Should we have seen it coming?

First, let me be clear, my computer did not pick the upset. It did pick Denver plus the points, but it bases its picks on the entire season of games and based on that it said Pittsburgh should win by 3.5. However, the point of the computer isn't to just blindly take the picks as gospel, but to use it as an important source of data along with other factors.

So, what are the other factors? A key one I always include in the previews is a performance chart. As a reminder, here was Denver's.

We can see a tale of different Denver teams. Early, with Orton, they weren't that good. They were better with Tebow, a different team, particularly in the 6 game streak, but did have 4 poor games.

One can easily make the case that the first 5 games with Orton shouldn't be included as they aren't reflective of the current Denver team. Looking at their average over the last 11 games, it increases to 80.9, about a point and a half ratings increase.

Then, not to ignore the 4 bad games with Tebow, but the chart shows their results are either up, or down, not usually something in between. So if you assume you are going to get the good Denver/Tebow, one could look at just those 7 games. The average in those is an astounding 87.4.

Now, let's take a look at Pittsburgh.

They too had some up and down results, although they didn't have a major change like Denver did with their quarterback and offensive system change. So it is harder to argue that any games should be dropped. Further, they finished down a bit due to Rothlisberger's injury and that was probably reflective of the team that played today. So, sticking with their 86.1 rating probably makes sense.

So, if you expected the "good" Denver to show up, Denver was the better team, 87.4 to 86.1. Add in home field advantage and they were nearly a 4 point pick.

So, perhaps we should have seen the upset coming. Certainly the computer's analysis and charts could help get there.

Look for the previews for the upcoming playoff games late in the week. Or subscribe to receive them right away.

2012 BCS Championship Game Preview - LSU to win and beat the spread

2012-01-08T17:04:00.000-08:00

The Allstate BCS Championship Bowl will take place on 1/9 pitting LSU against Alabama. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

LSU is ranked #1 by the computer with a 13-0 record and a rating of 96.546 against a schedule strength of 72.941. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very consistent all year, their worst game being against Northwestern State and best game being against Arkansas. They are 5-1-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-0-1 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.

Alabama is ranked #2 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 92.648 against a schedule strength of 71.733. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were also fairly consistent, their worst game being against North Texas and best game being against Arkansas. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-1 picking their games against the spread and 6-1 picking winners in their games.

Being from the same division of the same conference, the teams are very connected having played head to head and separated by 2 degrees as follows:

1 LSU-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Arkansas-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Auburn-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Florida-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Mississippi-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Mississippi_St-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Tennessee-->Alabama

LSU won 9-6 on the road in the head to head game. In the games against common opponents, here is how they did:

Opponent	LSU	Alabama
Arkansas	41-17	38-14
Auburn	45-10	@42-14
Florida	41-11	@38-10
Mississippi	@52-3	@52-7
Mississippi State	@19-6	@24-7
Tennessee	@38-7	37-6

The scores in these games are remarkably similar, LSU having the slight advantage of 3 at home while Alabama had just 2 at home, but of course LSU had to go to Alabama in the head to head game.

The spread was LSU by 1 but is now Alabama by 2, the computer agreeing with the former picking LSU by 3.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*LSU +2.0 over .. Alabama 3.9 5.9 0.726 0.819

This pick is made based on a weighted average of each teams performance in all their games. But it is interesting to look at a few other comparisons.

At their best, both against Arkansas, LSU rated 102.3 points and Alabama 102.1 points. Based on that you'd expect a virtual tie.

At their worst, both in somewhat meaningless games mind you, LSU rated 80.3 and Alabama 82.2. Based on that, you'd give Alabama the edge.

If you throw out both teams best/worst, LSU averages 95.6 while Alabama falls to 91.4. This shows a clear advantage to LSU.

However, LSU got an extra game against Georgia and their 2nd best game was that one, so throwing it out too may be fair, but it only drops them to 95.0. LSU is definitely stronger at the top supporting the computer's pick of LSU by nearly 4.

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.
cfa11.gms:Alabama NL at Mississippi_St 24-7 on 12-Nov-11
cfa07.gms:LSU NL at Tennessee 38-7 on 15-Oct-11
cfa08.gms:Tennessee NL at Alabama 6-37 on 22-Oct-11

2012 GoDaddy.com Bowl Preview - Northern Illinois in the upset

2012-01-08T16:23:00.000-08:00

The GoDaddy.com Bowl will take place on 1/8 pitting Arkansas State against Northern Illinois. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Arkansas State is ranked #61 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 67.654 against a schedule strength of 57.868. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent with gradual improvement, their worst game being at Illinois and best game being against Florida Int'l. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 8-0 picking winners in their games.

Northern Illinois is ranked #51 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 69.414 against a schedule strength of 63.150. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down, their worst game being at Central Michigan and best game being against Western Michigan. They are 1-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-1 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 3 degrees as follows:

3 Arkansas_St-->Illinois-->Western_Michigan-->Northern_Illinois
3 Arkansas_St-->Illinois-->Wisconsin-->Northern_Illinois
3 Arkansas_St-->Louisiana-Lafayette-->Kent_St-->Northern_Illinois

The spread is Arkansas State by 1 and the computer disagrees picking Northern Illinois by 1.8. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Northern Illinois +1.0 over . Arkansas State 1.8 2.8 0.574 0.615

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Atlanta at NY Giants 2012 NFL Playoff Preview -

2012-01-07T06:00:00.000-08:00

Atlanta plays at the NY Giants on 1/8 in a wildcard playoff game.

NY Giants are ranked #12 by the computer with a 9-7 record and a rating of 82.613 against a schedule strength of 82.357. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down, their worst game being against Washington and best game being at Philadelphia. They are 8-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-7-1 picking their games against the spread and 6-10 picking winners in their games.

Atlanta is ranked #8 by the computer with a 10-6 record and a rating of 84.062 against a schedule strength of 81.360. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a little down early then improved, their worst game being at Chicago and best game being at Detroit. They are 7-8-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 13-3 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

2 NY_Giants-->Green_Bay-->Atlanta
2 NY_Giants-->New_Orleans-->Atlanta
2 NY_Giants-->New_Orleans-->Atlanta
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->Atlanta
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->Atlanta
2 NY_Giants-->Seattle-->Atlanta

The spread is the Giants by 3 and the computer agrees but b less picking them by 1.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Atlanta +3.0 over *x NY Giants 1.6 1.4 0.553 0.550

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Detroit at New Orleans 2012 Playoff Preview - New Orleans to win, Detroit to cover

2012-01-06T10:30:00.000-08:00

New Orleans plays at Detroit on 1/7 in a wildcard playoff game.

New Orleans is ranked #3 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 88.518 against a schedule strength of 80.212. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down early but finished very strong, their worst game being at St Louis and best game being against Atlanta. They are 12-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-11 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.

Detroit is ranked #7 by the computer with a 10-6 record and a rating of 84.577 against a schedule strength of 82.269. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite up and down but finished on an upward trend, their worst game being at Chicago and best game being against San Diego. They are 8-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 11-5 picking their games against the spread and 11-5 picking winners in their games.

The teams played 5 weeks ago the Saints winning 31-17 at home and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

2 New_Orleans-->Atlanta-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Atlanta-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Carolina-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Carolina-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Chicago-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Chicago-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Green_Bay-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Green_Bay-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Minnesota-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Minnesota-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->Detroit
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->Detroit

The spread is New Orleans by 10.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 6.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Detroit +10.5 over *x New Orleans 6.9 3.6 0.670 0.589

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Cincinnati at Houston 2012 Playoff Preview - Houston to win and cover

2012-01-06T10:00:00.000-08:00

Houston plays at Cincinnati on 1/7 in a wildcard playoff game.

Houston is ranked #10 by the computer with a 10-6 record and a rating of 83.207 against a schedule strength of 80.183. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good most of the season, but finished on a downer, their worst game being against Carolina and best game being at Tennessee. They are 10-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.

Cincinnati is ranked #14 by the computer with a 9-7 record and a rating of 81.977 against a schedule strength of 80.875. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, not as up in the second half of the season, their worst game being at Pittsburgh and best game being at Seattle. They are 9-6-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.

The teams played 4 weeks ago Houston winning 20-19 on the road, are separated by 2 degrees:

2 Houston-->Baltimore-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Baltimore-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Cincinnati
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Cincinnati

The spread is Houston by 3 and the computer agrees picking them by 4.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xHouston -3.0 over . Cincinnati 4.2 1.2 0.638 0.541

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011/2012 College Bowl Games: An updated look at conference performance thus far

2012-01-03T14:08:00.000-08:00

I've been keeping track of how each conference has performed in the bowl games, but not simply looking at their record in the games, instead looking deeper at what the record "should" be compared to the actual record. And I've also added how each conference is doing against the spread.

The rationale for this is that the actual record alone doesn't tell the whole story. If a conference is having a down year and/or gets some matchups that aren't favorable, you'd expect a poor record so even a 0.500 record may be an indication the conference did well or at least better than expected. Thus comparing the actual with expected record is useful, as is looking at how a conference does against the spread, as that tells you if the teams did better/worse than Vegas and the public bettors expected.

Here is the up to date table through the Sugar Bowl:

Conference	Vegas	Computer	Most Likely	Thru 1/2	ATS
SEC	7-0	7-0	5-2	4-2	3-3
Big-12	6-2	7-1	6-2	6-1	6-1
Sun Belt	2-1	1-2	1-2	1-1	1-1
Mtn West	3-2	3-2	3-2	2-3	2-3
ACC	4-4	2-6	3-5	2-5	3-4
Independents	1-1	1-1	1-1	1-1	0-1-1
MAC	2-3	4-1	3-2	3-1	2-2
C-USA	2-3	3-2	3-2	3-1	3-0-1
Big-East	2-3	1-4	2-3	2-1	2-1
WAC	1-2	1-2	1-2	0-3	1-2
B1G	3-7	1-9	4-6	4-6	4-6
Pac-12	1-6	3-4	3-4	2-5	2-5

From this we can see that the SEC and Big-12 were supposed to do the best, and they have, but the SEC is actually behind where they should be. Vegas and my computer had them favored in every game with my computer projecting a most likely record of 5-2, and with one game left to play they need to win it to just get to that 5-2 mark. Note that I'm not including the BCS championship game as two SEC teams are facing each other. The SEC is also just 3-3 against the spread, so performing about where the public betting said they would.

The Big-12 has arguably done the best, on track for the expected 6-2 or 7-1 but a great 6-1 against the spread.

A couple big conferences that didn't have a good outlook were the Big Ten and Pac-12. The Big Ten has another game to play and will finish right around the expecte 3-7 or 4-6, but they haven't done well against the spread going only 3-6. The Pac-12 similarly finished right between the expected 1-6 or 3-4 at 2-5, but also did poorly against the spread going 2-5.

The bowl games are often a chance for the smaller conferences to make a statement, but most haven't, the exception being Conference USA which is 3-1 overall, but a healthy 3-0-1 against the spread. The Mountain West is only 2-3 in each category and the WAC 0-3 and 1-2. The MAC has done decent but my computer expected them to.

2012 AT&T Cotton Bowl Preview - Arkansas to win and Kansas State to cover

2012-01-03T13:59:00.000-08:00

The AT&T Cotton Bowl will take place on 1/6 pitting Kansas State against Arkansas. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Kansas State is ranked #19 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 77.484 against a schedule strength of 71.788. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent except for 2 games, their worst game being against Eastern Kentucky and best game being at Oklahoma State. They are 6-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-4 picking winners in their games.

Arkansas is ranked #5 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 83.926 against a schedule strength of 71.100. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very good with just a few down games, their worst game being against Troy and best game being against Tennessee. They are 4-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Texas A&M and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Kansas_St-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Baylor-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Eastern_Kentucky-->Missouri_St-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Iowa_St-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Kansas-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Kent_St-->Alabama-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Missouri-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Oklahoma_St-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Oklahoma-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Texas_Tech-->New_Mexico-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Texas_Tech-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas
3 Kansas_St-->Texas-->Texas_A&M-->Arkansas

Against Texas A&M, Kansas State won 53-50 at home and Arkansas won 42-38 on the road.

The spread is Arkansas by 7.5 and the computer agrees but by less, picking them by 6.4. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Kansas State +7.5 over *. Arkansas 6.4 1.1 0.726 0.539

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

College Football Week 19 Preview Ratings and Rankings

2012-01-03T10:44:00.000-08:00

I normally post updated college football ratings each Sunday to include all the games through the previous day, and I posted the week 18 ratings a few days ago, but with a bunch of key bowl games played yesterday I updated the rating through the Fiesta Bowl and the top-25 is below.

It is interesting to see some of the changes after the New Years Day, errr January 2nd, games. There are no changes in position until #8, but then there is a fair amount.

Stanford moves up a spot despite losing, in large part because they were expected to lose so their rating was about where it was supposed to be. They move up a spot because Wisconsin and the rest of the Big Ten had a bad day. Wisconsin lost, but they were supposed to so that isn't why they dropped, instead it was the rest of the Big Ten teams except for Michigan State losing, and badly in a few cases, that pulled Wisconsin and the rest of the Big Ten down a bit with Michigan dropped 0.5 points and 3 spots despite not playing yet, Michigan State dropping 0.1 points and a spot despite winning, Nebraska dropping 1.4 points and 3 spots in a bad loss, and Penn State (not in the top-25) dropping 1.6 points and 6 spots after their bad loss.

The beneficiary in large part was the SEC, even the idle teams having their ratings improve 0.3+ points, but esepcially South Carolina, as well as Oregon and Houston, although Oregon's gap to #3 Oklahoma State was too large for it to change their ranking.

How close is Oklahoma State to #2 now? Still not very close, their loss to Iowa State just a far worse result than Alabama's loss to LSU.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	LSU	96.197	13-0	72.703	+0, +0.361
2	Alabama	92.432	11-1	71.615	+0, +0.298
3	Oklahoma St	87.900	12-1	73.629	+0, +0.124
4	Oregon	85.714	12-2	70.454	+0, +0.601
5	Arkansas	84.475	10-2	71.429	+0, +0.549
6	Boise St	83.927	12-1	65.714	+0, +0.012
7	Oklahoma	83.582	10-3	73.636	+0, +0.039
8	Stanford	82.317	11-2	69.974	+1, +0.074
9	Wisconsin	81.913	11-3	67.580	-1, -1.098
10	South Carolina	80.735	11-2	70.854	+3, +1.469
11	Southern Cal	79.664	10-2	70.207	+0, +0.100
12	Georgia	79.574	10-4	71.905	-2, -0.175
13	Baylor	79.140	10-3	72.039	+1, +0.053
14	Texas A&M	79.108	7-6	73.042	+1, +0.060
15	Michigan	79.043	10-2	68.063	-3, -0.505
16	Missouri	78.203	8-5	71.770	+0, +0.054
17	Houston	78.008	13-1	62.283	+4, +1.639
18	Michigan St	77.855	11-3	68.496	-1, -0.140
19	TCU	77.589	11-2	64.310	-1, +0.080
20	Kansas St	77.524	10-2	71.813	-1, +0.040
21	Florida St	76.485	9-4	65.798	+2, +0.176
22	Texas	76.484	8-5	73.335	-2, +0.061
23	Notre Dame	75.766	8-5	70.822	+1, -0.011
24	Southern Miss	74.962	12-2	62.857	+1, +0.433
25	Nebraska	74.887	9-4	70.317	-3, -1.429

Week 9 NCAA College Basketball Tournament Teams Projection

2012-01-02T15:52:00.000-08:00

Here is the updated projected 68 NCAA tournament teams using my rankings. My methodology, for now at least, is to take the highest ranked team from each of the 31 conferences and select them as the automatic qualifier, and then select the next 37 highest ranked teams. As teams actually automatically qualify, they will be used instead.

The list is below, but will also be posted on the web-site each week.

With this list, we can take a look at the last 4 in, first 4 left out, and other observations.

Differences from last week are that Arizona, Missouri State, Norfolk State, and Vanderbilt replace Denver, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, and Oregon State.

The last 4 at large teams making this list are Arizona, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and Marshall. The first 4 left out are Akron, Minnesota, Washington, and Illinois.

Stay tuned for more updates as the season progresses.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Syracuse*	88.056	15-0	70.033	+3, +0.959
2	Ohio State*	87.593	13-2	70.389	+1, +0.405
3	Kentucky*	86.856	13-1	69.520	+4, +0.701
4	Missouri*	86.358	13-0	65.339	-3, -1.309
5	Baylor	86.317	12-0	70.342	-3, -1.109
6	North Carolina*	86.194	13-2	70.482	+0, -0.435
7	Michigan St	85.340	13-2	70.906	+6, +1.471
8	Indiana	84.782	13-1	69.694	+1, -0.284
9	Duke	84.742	12-1	73.205	+6, +1.012
10	Florida	83.936	11-3	70.480	-2, -1.673
11	St Mary's CA*	83.750	11-2	70.713	+13, +1.397
12	Kansas St	83.669	11-1	69.192	+0, -0.299
13	Kansas	83.616	10-3	72.209	+4, +0.198
14	Georgetown DC	83.590	11-1	69.688	+4, +0.280
15	Murray St*	83.568	11-0	70.409	-1, -0.261
16	UNLV*	83.322	13-2	71.966	-6, -1.508
17	Wisconsin	83.140	12-3	69.682	-12, -3.854
18	St Louis U.*	82.525	11-2	68.393	+3, -0.224
19	Creighton*	82.100	11-2	71.167	+1, -0.765
20	Louisville	82.033	12-2	70.656	-4, -1.393
21	California*	81.604	12-3	70.037	+1, -1.095
22	Gonzaga	81.602	11-2	71.469	+10, +1.398
23	Wichita St	81.393	9-3	71.270	+0, -1.245
24	New Mexico	81.050	11-2	70.465	+22, +1.968
25	Virginia	80.831	12-1	64.966	+0, -1.050
26	Seton Hall	80.728	12-2	70.935	+7, +0.593
27	Alabama	80.585	10-3	71.878	+2, -0.208
28	Brigham Young	80.573	10-4	70.307	-2, -1.232
29	Ohio U.*	80.464	11-1	69.664	-10, -2.737
30	Connecticut	80.410	12-1	69.524	-3, -1.246
31	Marquette	80.302	12-2	70.507	-20, -4.356
32	Oklahoma	80.089	10-2	68.305	+3, -0.004
33	Memphis*	79.947	8-5	74.354	+7, +0.281
34	Long Beach St*	79.676	5-6	79.231	-4, -0.559
35	Harvard*	79.627	11-1	70.630	-4, -0.597
36	Virginia Tech	79.549	11-3	69.965	+16, +0.623
37	Texas	79.385	10-3	68.292	+6, -0.054
38	Michigan	79.350	11-2	68.829	+3, -0.265
39	Middle Tennessee St*	79.262	12-2	69.009	+0, -0.441
40	West Virginia	79.170	10-4	72.435	-2, -0.608
41	San Diego St	79.062	11-2	70.162	+7, +0.081
42	Mississippi St	78.984	13-2	68.184	+2, -0.242
43	Missouri St	78.964	8-5	74.177	+32, +3.079
44	St Joseph's PA	78.951	10-4	71.851	+9, +0.318
45	Purdue	78.834	12-3	68.871	+11, +0.538
46	Southern Miss	78.633	11-2	71.230	-9, -1.232
47	Belmont*	78.407	8-5	72.763	+3, -0.528
48	VA Commonwealth*	78.080	10-3	70.204	+11, +0.356
49	Stanford	77.959	12-2	67.456	+2, -0.968
50	Florida St	77.857	8-5	70.937	-14, -2.138
51	Temple	77.851	9-3	73.894	-4, -1.151
52	Marshall	77.838	8-4	72.195	-24, -3.597
53	Northwestern	77.718	11-3	71.159	-4, -1.253
54	Vanderbilt	77.634	9-4	70.838	+19, +1.735
55	Arizona	77.467	10-4	70.550	+11, +0.377
57	Wagner*	77.328	10-3	70.675	+8, +0.159
61	North Dakota St*	77.094	9-3	68.445	+6, +0.158
64	Iona*	76.908	10-3	71.899	-19, -2.239
72	Lehigh*	76.228	10-4	69.007	+4, +0.407
74	New Mexico St*	76.090	8-5	70.522	-20, -2.364
79	Lamar*	75.387	7-5	74.046	-11, -1.442
88	Cleveland St*	74.692	11-3	72.158	-1, -0.303
92	Davidson*	74.407	7-4	73.061	-3, -0.568
113	Weber St*	72.725	8-3	69.256	+9, +0.166
130	Charleston Southern*	71.734	6-4	69.836	-18, -1.401
135	Norfolk St*	71.504	9-4	70.373	-11, -0.939
193	Vermont*	68.462	6-8	69.194	-13, -0.763
250	Mississippi Valley St*	65.295	1-11	79.856	+14, +0.910

College Basketball Week 9 Ratings and Rankings - Syracuse to #1

2012-01-02T15:10:00.000-08:00

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Due to the closeness at the top and a few key games, there are some changes at the top this week. Syracuse moves to #1 over new #2 Ohio State and new #3 Kentucky. Last week's #1 Missouri falls to #4 and last week's #2 falls to #5 Baylor.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Syracuse	88.056	15-0	70.033	+3, +0.959
2	Ohio State	87.593	13-2	70.389	+1, +0.405
3	Kentucky	86.856	13-1	69.520	+4, +0.701
4	Missouri	86.358	13-0	65.339	-3, -1.309
5	Baylor	86.317	12-0	70.342	-3, -1.109
6	North Carolina	86.194	13-2	70.482	+0, -0.435
7	Michigan St	85.340	13-2	70.906	+6, +1.471
8	Indiana	84.782	13-1	69.694	+1, -0.284
9	Duke	84.742	12-1	73.205	+6, +1.012
10	Florida	83.936	11-3	70.480	-2, -1.673
11	St Mary's CA	83.750	11-2	70.713	+13, +1.397
12	Kansas St	83.669	11-1	69.192	+0, -0.299
13	Kansas	83.616	10-3	72.209	+4, +0.198
14	Georgetown DC	83.590	11-1	69.688	+4, +0.280
15	Murray St	83.568	11-0	70.409	-1, -0.261
16	UNLV	83.322	13-2	71.966	-6, -1.508
17	Wisconsin	83.140	12-3	69.682	-12, -3.854
18	St Louis U.	82.525	11-2	68.393	+3, -0.224
19	Creighton	82.100	11-2	71.167	+1, -0.765
20	Louisville	82.033	12-2	70.656	-4, -1.393
21	California	81.604	12-3	70.037	+1, -1.095
22	Gonzaga	81.602	11-2	71.469	+10, +1.398
23	Wichita St	81.393	9-3	71.270	+0, -1.245
24	New Mexico	81.050	11-2	70.465	+22, +1.968
25	Virginia	80.831	12-1	64.966	+0, -1.050

2012 NFL Playoff Previews Subscription Available

2012-01-01T21:41:00.000-08:00

I have been creating detailed playoff game previews using my computer ratings for the past few years and this year is no different. I will be posting the previews on this blog right around game time, but for those wanting to get them 5+ days before the game, a subscription for the 2012 NFL playoff games is available for $10.

These previews include performance charts, stats on each team's record against the spread as well as the computers picks for the teams, comparison of common opponents, and finally the computer's pick on the winner and against the spread. For an example of a past previews, see last years Baltimore/Pittsburgh playoff game and a free preview of Pittsburgh at Denver has already been posted.

Previews for all playoff games will be sent via e-mail at least 5 days before each game, and likely earlier than that.

How do the computer's picks do you ask? See the Prediction Performance page for details, but even with a few bad weeks where the computer can't take injuries and late season meaningless games into account, it went 139-111-6 against the spread, 28-22-1 on best picks, and 10-1 on locks. It also went 167-89 picking winners almost exactly the same as Vegas' 167-88 record.

To subscribe, click the button below.

Pittsburgh at Denver 2012 Playoff Preview - Pittsburgh to win, Denver to cover

2012-01-01T21:32:00.000-08:00

This is a free 2012 NFL playoff preview. A full subscription to all playoff game previews is available which will deliver these previews to you via e-mail 5+ days in advance of the games. Without the preview subscription, these will only be available here on the blog shortly before game time.

Denver plays at Pittsburgh on 1/8 in a wildcard playoff game.

Denver is ranked #22 by the computer with an 8-8 record and a rating of 79.535 against a schedule strength of 81.923. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were mediocre early, better mid-season, but finished poorly, their worst game being at Buffalo and best game being at Oakland. They are 8-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 12-4 picking their games against the spread and 9-7 picking winners in their games.

Pittsburgh is ranked #5 by the computer with a 12-4 record and a rating of 86.062 against a schedule strength of 80.935. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly inconsistent all year, their worst game being at Baltimore and best game being against Cincinnati. They are 7-9 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, and Tennessee as follows:

2 Denver-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Denver-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Denver-->Kansas_City-->Pittsburgh
2 Denver-->Kansas_City-->Pittsburgh
2 Denver-->New_England-->Pittsburgh
2 Denver-->Tennessee-->Pittsburgh

The spread is Pittsburgh by 8 and the computer agrees but not my as much picking them by 3.5. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.xDenver +8.0 over * Pittsburgh 3.5 4.5 0.610 0.638

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Who the computer says will win the 2012 Superbowl

2012-01-01T21:02:00.000-08:00

With the end of the regular season, the final ratings are posted and the computer can calculate the chances of each playoff contender getting to and winning the Superbowl.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
Green Bay	0.561	0.350
New England	0.528	0.254
San Francisco	0.229	0.118
Baltimore	0.269	0.105
New Orleans	0.127	0.069
Pittsburgh	0.091	0.036
Houston	0.077	0.025
Atlanta	0.028	0.011
NY Giants	0.028	0.010
Detroit	0.024	0.010
Denver	0.019	0.004
Cincinnati	0.018	0.004

Not only does the computer say Green Bay and New England are favorites in their conference, it puts their chances of getting to the Superbowl at both over 50%. This is in large part due to having first round byes and home field advantage through the playoffs. The Packers even have a 35% chance of winning it all to just over 25% for the Patriots.

As you'd expect, the other teams with first round byes are the second choices in each conference, Baltimore having a nearly 27% chance of getting to the Superbowl and the 49ers, almost 23%. Interestingly, because of the potential matchups in the Superbowl, the 49ers have a better chance of winning it all than Baltimore.

Who has the longest shot? While Denver is the lowest rated team in the playoffs, because they get a home game, albeit against Pittsburgh, they beat out Cincinnati, both with less than a 1% chance of winning the Superbowl and under a 2% chance of getting there.

Week 17 NFL Ratings and Rankings Posted - Green Bay finishes #1

2012-01-01T20:38:00.001-08:00

The NFL ratings after week 17 are now posted here and below.

There wasn't a lot of change in this weeks rankings, the top 7 remain the same and Houston simply drops 2 spots with Atlanta and Philadelphia moving up in the top 10. Green Bay's gap to #2 got a bit smaller and New Orleans is very very close to New England for #2.

Who is rated highly but not making the playoffs? Philadelphia is ranked #9 ahead of NFC East winner New York, my computer thinking they are the better team despite finishing a game back. San Diego is ranked #11, ahead of wildcard Cincinnati and AFC West winner Denver. Again, my computer says they are the better team despite the record. And in fact, San Diego would have won the AFC West using the old tie-breaker system.

Look for playoff chances to be posted shortly.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Green Bay	90.391	15-1	80.805	+0, -0.170
2	New England	88.527	13-3	80.630	+0, +0.395
3	New Orleans	88.518	13-3	80.212	+0, +0.574
4	San Francisco	87.328	13-3	80.376	+0, -0.204
5	Pittsburgh	86.062	12-4	80.935	+0, -0.073
6	Baltimore	85.755	12-4	80.788	+0, +0.614
7	Detroit	84.577	10-6	82.269	+0, +0.197
8	Atlanta	84.062	10-6	81.360	+1, +0.244
9	Philadelphia	84.018	8-8	81.401	+1, +0.512
10	Houston	83.207	10-6	80.183	-2, -0.622
11	San Diego	82.716	8-8	81.520	+3, +0.790
12	NY Giants	82.613	9-7	82.357	+3, +0.824
13	Chicago	82.368	8-8	82.211	-1, +0.221
14	Cincinnati	81.977	9-7	80.875	-3, -0.595
15	Seattle	81.946	7-9	81.530	-2, -0.181
16	NY Jets	81.761	8-8	81.653	+1, +0.058
17	Miami	81.575	6-10	81.485	+1, -0.029
18	Tennessee	81.062	9-7	80.278	+1, +0.538
19	Dallas	80.981	8-8	81.299	-3, -0.752
20	Carolina	80.039	6-10	81.333	+0, -0.477
21	Arizona	79.994	8-8	81.220	+2, +0.166
22	Denver	79.535	8-8	81.923	+0, -0.616
23	Oakland	79.495	8-8	81.731	-2, -0.763
24	Kansas City	78.903	7-9	81.819	+1, +0.632
25	Buffalo	78.770	6-10	82.033	-1, -0.341
26	Minnesota	77.529	3-13	82.474	+1, -0.275
27	Washington	77.498	5-11	81.662	-1, -0.553
28	Jacksonville	77.197	5-11	81.147	+0, +0.126
29	Cleveland	76.684	4-12	81.709	+0, +0.123
30	Tampa Bay	74.148	4-12	82.933	+0, -0.373
31	Indianapolis	74.049	2-14	81.725	+0, -0.015
32	St Louis	73.909	2-14	83.314	+0, +0.237

Why Denver, and not San Diego or Oakland won the AFC West

2012-01-01T19:57:00.000-08:00

We know now that Denver backed their way into winning the AFC West. And those that care know it came down to a tie-breaker, that being a better record against common opponents. But let's take a deeper look at why exactly that was and if it always would have been this way.

If we look at the records, specifically those you typically see in the standings, we see that each of Denver, San Diego, and Oakland were all 8-8 overall as well as 3-3 in the division. We can also see that San Diego was 7-5 in the conference while Denver and Oakland were just 6-6. So why did Denver win the division with a worse conference record than San Diego?

It did used to be (pre-2008) that the tie-breaking procedure had conference record with a higher precedence and with those rules, San Diego would have won the tie-breaker and the division. But in 2008 with the addition of the Texans and 4 divisions, they tie-breaking rules were changed to have the record in games against common opponents used after the division record but before the conference record. Thus, Denver's better record in those games against common opponents trumps San Diego's better conference record.

So who were these common opponents and how did each team do? Well, the teams all played Kansas City as a common opponent twice, then the AFC West all played the NFC North as well as the AFC East, 4 games each, or a total of 10 games against common opponents. Throw in the 4 games they played against each other and the only games not common were Denver's against Cincinnati and Tennessee, San Diego's against Jacksonville and Baltimore, and Oakland's against Houston and Cleveland.

In the 10 common games and each unique game as well, here is how the teams fared. Records in the heading are against common opponents and why Denver wins the tie-breaker.

Opponent	Denver (6-4)	San Diego (5-5)	Oakland (5-5)
Common
Kansas City	W @17-10	W 20-17	L 28-0
Kansas City	L 7-3	L @23-20	W @16-13 OT
Green Bay	L @49-23	L 45-38	L @46-16
Detroit	L 45-10	L @38-10	L 28-27
Chicago	W 13-10 OT	L @31-20	W 25-20
Minnesota	W @35-32	W 24-17	W @27-21
New England	L 41-23	L @35-21	L 31-19
NY Jets	W 17-13	L @27-21	W 34-24
Miami	W @18-15 OT	W 26-16	L 34-14
Buffalo	L @40-14	W 37-10	L 38-35
Not Common
Cincinnati	W 24-22
Tennessee	L @17-14
Jacksonville		W @38-14
Baltimore		W 34-14
Houston			W @25-20
Cleveland			W 24-17

The differences for Denver and San Diego are Denver beat Chicago at home while SD lost on the road, Denver beat the Jets at home while San Diego lost on the road, and San Diego beat Buffalo at home while Denver lost on the road. It would seem San Diego drew the bad break of having to play some of the tougher opponents on the road (Detroit, Chicago, New England, and the Jets) while Denver got all of those at home, while Denver's road games did include tough opponent Green Bay, but also included not so tough Minnesota, Miami, and Green Bay. Had San Diego had another tough game at home in exchange for an easier one on the road, they may have won it and finished 9-7 winning the division. Note that Oakland had the same home/road schedule as Denver.

Also, San Diego had the toughest not-common opponent in 12-4 Baltimore while Denver's toughest was 9-7 (Cincinnati and Jacksonville). Oakland's toughest was 10-6 Houston.

So, San Diego had the slightly tougher road, due in part to finishing ahead of Denver and Oakland last year. My computer actually says San Diego is the better team rating at about 82.7 versus Denver's and Oakland's 79.5, but it is the record and the NFL's tie-breakers that count.

2012 Discover Orange Bowl Preview - Clemson to win, West Virginia to cover

2012-01-01T10:00:00.000-08:00

The Discover Orange Bowl will take place on 1/4 pitting West Virginia against Clemson. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

West Virginia is ranked #35 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 72.362 against a schedule strength of 67.263. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good and consistent except for their game against Syracuse, their worst game being at Syracuse and best game being at Rutgers. They are 6-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 4-5 picking winners in their games.

Clemson is ranked #26 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 74.284 against a schedule strength of 68.007. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly up and down, their worst game being at North Carolina State and best game being against Virginia Tech. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 7-2 picking their games against the spread and 4-5 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Maryland and 3 degrees as follows:

2 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Louisville-->North_Carolina-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->LSU-->Auburn-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Marshall-->Virginia_Tech-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Marshall-->Virginia_Tech-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->Boston_College-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->Florida_St-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->Georgia_Tech-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->North_Carolina_St-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Maryland-->Wake_Forest-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Rutgers-->North_Carolina-->Clemson
3 West_Virginia-->Syracuse-->Wake_Forest-->Clemson

Against Maryland, West Virginia won 37-31 on the road and Clemson won 56-45 on the road.

The spread is Clemson by 3.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 1.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.West Virginia +3.5 over *. Clemson 1.9 1.6 0.572 0.559

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 Allstate Sugar Bowl Preview - Michigan to beat Virginia Tech and cover

2012-01-01T08:30:00.000-08:00

The Allstate Sugar Bowl will take place on 1/3 pitting Michigan against Virginia Tech. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Michigan is ranked #12 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 79.554 against a schedule strength of 68.533. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good except in their two losses, their worst game being at Iowa and best game being against Nebraska. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-3 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.

Virginia Tech is ranked #29 by the computer with a 11-2 record and a rating of 74.038 against a schedule strength of 66.898. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were also pretty good except for their losses, their worst game being against Clemson and best game being at Virginia. They are 2-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 7-2 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.

The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are by 3 degrees as follows:

3 Michigan-->Illinois-->Arkansas_St-->Virginia_Tech
3 Michigan-->Northwestern-->Boston_College-->Virginia_Tech
3 Michigan-->Notre_Dame-->Boston_College-->Virginia_Tech
3 Michigan-->Notre_Dame-->Wake_Forest-->Virginia_Tech
3 Michigan-->Ohio_State-->Miami_FL-->Virginia_Tech

The spread is Michigan by 2 and the computer agrees picking them by 5.5. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Michigan -2.0 over .. Virginia Tech 5.5 3.5 0.685 0.620

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

College Football Week 18 Ratings and Rankings -

2012-01-01T07:55:00.000-08:00

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted. These ratings are through the 12/31 bowl games.

Most of the top teams are still to play their bowl game, so there aren't radical moves in the top-25, but we can begin to see the effect of the results of games closely related to the top teams. The SEC was supposed to go 2-1 but Auburns big win has buoyed the SEC teams ratings a touch which has moved Arkansas ahead of Boise State who was hurt a fraction by Tulsa's loss. The Big-12 has also improved a bit with a 5-1 record thus far and they now have 5 of the top-16 teams and 7 of the top-20 teams.

The regular algorithm top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	LSU	95.836	13-0	72.390	+0, +0.100
2	Alabama	92.134	11-1	71.458	+0, +0.142
3	Oklahoma St	87.776	11-1	72.830	+0, +0.189
4	Oregon	85.113	11-2	69.511	+0, -0.421
5	Arkansas	83.926	10-2	71.100	+1, +0.117
6	Boise St	83.915	12-1	65.699	-1, -0.128
7	Oklahoma	83.543	10-3	73.603	+0, +0.513
8	Wisconsin	83.011	11-2	66.670	+0, +0.072
9	Stanford	82.243	11-1	68.390	+0, -0.441
10	Georgia	79.749	10-3	71.068	+1, +0.003
11	Southern Cal	79.564	10-2	70.167	-1, -0.458
12	Michigan	79.548	10-2	68.514	+0, -0.006
13	South Carolina	79.266	10-2	70.187	+0, +0.050
14	Baylor	79.087	10-3	71.982	+1, +0.397
15	Texas A&M	79.048	7-6	72.967	-1, +0.306
16	Missouri	78.149	8-5	71.740	+2, +0.904
17	Michigan St	77.995	10-3	68.182	-1, -0.057
18	TCU	77.509	11-2	64.253	-1, +0.145
19	Kansas St	77.484	10-2	71.788	+0, +0.278
20	Texas	76.423	8-5	73.265	+4, +0.771
21	Houston	76.369	12-1	61.233	-1, -0.185
22	Nebraska	76.316	9-3	69.946	-1, -0.037
23	Florida St	76.309	9-4	65.655	+0, +0.438
24	Notre Dame	75.777	8-5	70.843	-2, -0.349
25	Southern Miss	74.529	12-2	62.515	+0, -0.129

2011/2012 College Bowl Games: A look at conference performance thus far

2011-12-31T13:45:00.000-08:00

Before the bowls started, I wrote up what records Vegas and my computer expected each conference to have as a way of judging performance once the games were complete. As I wrote then, if a conference has a great record, that doesn't necessarily mean it is a great conference if they were all games they should have won. Similarly if a conference has a poor record, the matchups could again mean they aren't that bad.

Below is the original table I posted updated with the results through 12/30 plus the Texas A&M/Northwestern game showing the actual records thus far in the last column. This table will be kept up to date here.

Conference	Vegas	Computer	Most Likely	Thru 12/30
SEC	7-0	7-0	5-2	1-0
Big-12	6-2	7-1	6-2	5-1
Sun Belt	2-1	1-2	1-2	1-1
Mtn West	3-2	3-2	3-2	2-3
ACC	4-4	2-6	3-5	2-2
Independents	1-1	1-1	1-1	1-1
MAC	2-3	4-1	3-2	3-1
C-USA	2-3	3-2	3-2	2-1
Big-East	2-3	1-4	2-3	1-1
WAC	1-2	1-2	1-2	0-3
B1G	3-6	1-9	4-6	1-2
Pac-12	1-6	3-4	3-4	0-3

No major surprises with most conference at or around what was expected.

The WAC is finished and they went 0-3 rather than the expected 1-2, Utah State losing the 1 point game to Ohio U. The Mountain West is also finished and they too went a game under expected, 2-3 rather than 3-2. Both of these conferences doing slightly worse than expected confirms they are among the weaker conferences.

Since there are still a bunch of key games to play, particularly for the big conferences, it is too early to make any real statements there, but the Big-12 is right on target with 2 games to go, the Big-12 has a bunch of games to go but early is on target, and the Pac-12 needs some help to get on target.

More later.

2012 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Preview - Oklahoma State to win and cover

2011-12-31T07:30:00.000-08:00

The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Stanford against Oklahoma State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Stanford is ranked #9 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 82.684 against a schedule strength of 68.824. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very consistent except for their loss, their worst game being against Oregon and best game being at Southern Cal. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.

Oklahoma State is ranked #3 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 87.587 against a schedule strength of 72.696. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were almost as consistent, but also had a bad loss, their worst game being at Iowa State and best game being against Oklahoma. They are 6-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Arizona and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Stanford-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Arizona-->Louisiana-Lafayette-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Colorado-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Oregon-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Oregon_St-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Southern_Cal-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->UCLA-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->UCLA-->Texas-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Washington-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St

Against Arizona, Stanford won 37-10 on the road and Oklahoma State won 37-14 at home.

The spread is Oklahoma State by 3.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 4.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Oklahoma State -3.5 over . Stanford 4.9 1.4 0.654 0.545

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 Rose Bowl Preview - Oregon to win, Wisconsin to cover

2011-12-31T07:00:00.000-08:00

The Rose Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Wisconsin against Oregon. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Wisconsin is ranked #8 by the computer with a 11-2 record and a rating of 82.939 against a schedule strength of 66.590. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good other than mid-season, their worst game being at Ohio State and best game being against Nebraska. They are 5-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-5 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.

Oregon is ranked #4 by the computer with a 11-2 record and a rating of 85.534 against a schedule strength of 69.883. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were good to great but falter in a couple games, their worst game being against Southern Cal and best game being at Stanford. They are 4-2-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3-1 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Oregon State and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Minnesota-->Southern_Cal-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Nebraska-->Washington-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Ohio_State-->Colorado-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Arizona-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Arizona_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->California-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Stanford-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->UCLA-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Washington-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Washington_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->UNLV-->Nevada-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->UNLV-->Washington_St-->Oregon

Against Oregon State, Wisconsin won 35-0 at home and Oregon won 49-21 at home.

The spread is Oregon by 6.5 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 2.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Wisconsin +6.5 over *. Oregon 2.6 3.9 0.592 0.637

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl Preview - Florida to win, Ohio State to cover

2011-12-31T06:30:00.000-08:00

The Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Ohio State against Florida. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Ohio State is ranked #39 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 71.965 against a schedule strength of 68.995. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down, their worst game being at Miami FL and best game being against Wisconsin. They are 4-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-4 picking their games against the spread and 4-5 picking winners in their games.

Florida is ranked #32 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 73.204 against a schedule strength of 71.106. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good early but then declined, their worst game being against Florida State and best game being at Kentucky. They are 2-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 3 degrees as follows:

3 Ohio_State-->Miami_FL-->Florida_St-->Florida
3 Ohio_State-->Michigan_St-->Florida_Atlantic-->Florida
3 Ohio_State-->Penn_State-->Alabama-->Florida

The spread is Florida by 2 and the computer agrees picking them by 1.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Ohio State +2.0 over *. Florida 1.2 0.8 0.567 0.541

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 Capital One Bowl - South Carolina to win and cover

2011-12-31T06:00:00.000-08:00

The Capital One Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Nebraska against South Carolina. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Nebraska is ranked #21 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 76.353 against a schedule strength of 69.983. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down particularly mid season, their worst game being at Michigan and best game being against Michigan State. They are 3-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 7-2 picking winners in their games.

South Carolina is ranked #13 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 79.216 against a schedule strength of 70.154. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a little up and down, their worst game being against Navy and best game being against Clemson. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-5 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 3 degrees in only one way as follows:

3 Nebraska-->Chattanooga-->The_Citadel-->South_Carolina

The spread is South Carolina by 1.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 2.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.South Carolina -1.5 over . Nebraska 2.9 1.4 0.621 0.558

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 Outback Bowl - Georgia to win, Michigan State to cover

2011-12-31T05:30:00.000-08:00

The Outback Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Michigan State against Georgia. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Michigan State is ranked #16 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 78.052 against a schedule strength of 68.228. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, a few bad games pulling them down and out of the top-10, their worst game being at Nebraska and best game being against Michigan. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.

Georgia is ranked #11 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 79.746 against a schedule strength of 71.067. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite consistent after a bit of a slow start, their worst game being against Boise State and best game being against Auburn. They are 7-0 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.

The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are by 3 as follows:

3 Michigan_St-->Central_Michigan-->Kentucky-->Georgia
3 Michigan_St-->Florida_Atlantic-->Auburn-->Georgia
3 Michigan_St-->Florida_Atlantic-->Florida-->Georgia
3 Michigan_St-->Minnesota-->New_Mexico_St-->Georgia

The spread is Gerogia by 4 and the computer agrees picking them by 1.7. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Michigan State +4.0 over *. Georgia 1.7 2.3 0.572 0.598

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 TicketCity Bowl Preview - Houston to win, Penn State to cover

2011-12-31T05:00:00.000-08:00

The TicketCity Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Houston against Penn State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Houston is ranked #20 by the computer with a 12-1 record and a rating of 76.554 against a schedule strength of 61.391. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good all year, improving towards the end until their last game, their worst game being against Southern Miss and best game being at Tulsa. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.

Penn State is ranked #28 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 74.151 against a schedule strength of 69.941. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent, their worst game being at Wisconsin and best game being at Northwestern. They are 2-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.

The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are by 3 degrees as follows:

3 Houston-->North_Texas-->Alabama-->Penn_State
3 Houston-->North_Texas-->Indiana-->Penn_State
3 Houston-->Rice-->Northwestern-->Penn_State
3 Houston-->Rice-->Purdue-->Penn_State

The spread is Houston by 6 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 2.4. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

..Penn State +6.0 over * Houston 2.4 3.6 0.584 0.625

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Chick-fil-A Bowl Preview - Auburn to win and cover

2011-12-30T06:00:00.000-08:00

The Chick-fil-A Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Virginia against Auburn. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Virginia is ranked #63 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 67.282 against a schedule strength of 65.457. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down late in the year, their worst game being against North Carolina State and best game being at Miami FL. They are 2-4-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5-1 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.

Auburn is ranked #35 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 72.375 against a schedule strength of 72.726. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down and certainly down from last year, their worst game being against Florida Atlantic and best game being at South Carolina. They are 2-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5 picking their games against the spread and 5-2 picking winners in their games.

The teams are not separated by 2 degrees and by 3 degrees:

3 Virginia-->Florida_St-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Florida_St-->Florida-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Georgia_Tech-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Georgia_Tech-->Georgia-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Idaho-->Utah_St-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Maryland-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->North_Carolina-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->North_Carolina_St-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Virginia_Tech-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Virginia_Tech-->Clemson-->Auburn

The spread is Auburn by 1.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 5.1. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Auburn -1.5 over . Virginia 5.1 3.6 0.711 0.653

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Week 8 NCAA College Basketball Tournament Teams Projection

2011-12-29T15:31:00.000-08:00

Starting with this post, I will be projecting the 68 NCAA tournament teams using my rankings. My methodology, for now at least, is to take the highest ranked team from each of the 31 conferences and select them as the automatic qualifier, and then select the next 37 highest ranked teams. As teams actually automatically qualify, they will be used instead.

The list is below, but will also be posted on the web-site each week. Note that I'm doing this a bit late this week and so the ratings used are as of last Sunday so some teams will not have their latest games reflected.

With this list, we can take a look at the last 4 in, first 4 left out, and other observations.

The last 4 at large teams making this list are Purdue, Oregon State, St. Joe's, and Virginia Tech. The first 4 left out are Illinois, Minnesota, Wyoming, and Pitt. The ratings are very close though and with most of the meaningful games left to be played, much could change. But the key thing is that some teams you might think will make it comfortably like a 10-3 Purdue, 11-2 Illinois, or 11-2 Pitt, are currently right around the bubble due to weaker early schedules (#'s 263, 257, and 290 of 345).

What may also be a surprise is that some teams, like 7-5 Belmont or 7-4 New Mexico State are ranked high enough that they would be in even if they weren't the highest ranked team in their conference. This is because they have played much tougher schedules early in the year (#'s 58 and 90).

Stay tuned for more updates as the season progresses.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Missouri*	87.667	12-0	64.260	+0, -3.003
2	Baylor	87.426	11-0	69.896	+2, +0.765
3	Ohio State*	87.188	12-1	68.827	+2, +0.835
4	Syracuse*	87.097	13-0	69.565	-2, -0.672
5	Wisconsin	86.994	11-2	70.326	-2, -0.092
6	North Carolina*	86.629	11-2	72.725	+1, +1.034
7	Kentucky*	86.155	11-1	68.109	-1, +0.265
8	Florida	85.609	10-2	70.241	+6, +1.244
9	Indiana	85.066	12-0	66.027	+2, -0.061
10	UNLV*	84.830	11-2	73.853	+7, +1.515
11	Marquette	84.658	11-1	70.928	+1, -0.284
12	Kansas St	83.968	10-1	70.775	+16, +2.047
13	Michigan St	83.869	11-2	70.225	+0, -0.638
14	Murray St*	83.829	10-0	71.436	-5, -1.351
15	Duke	83.730	10-1	74.494	+0, -0.078
16	Louisville	83.426	12-0	69.137	-8, -1.828
17	Kansas	83.418	8-3	74.405	+4, +0.704
18	Georgetown DC	83.310	9-1	68.083	+4, +0.605
19	Ohio U.*	83.201	10-1	72.170	+10, +1.478
20	Creighton*	82.865	10-1	69.236	-4, -0.779
21	St Louis U.*	82.749	10-1	67.706	-1, +0.030
22	California*	82.699	10-3	70.550	-12, -2.437
23	Wichita St	82.638	8-2	70.955	+2, +0.234
24	St Mary's CA*	82.353	9-2	70.123	-6, -0.888
25	Virginia	81.881	10-1	67.614	-6, -1.139
26	Brigham Young	81.805	9-3	70.255	+8, +0.505
27	Connecticut	81.656	10-1	70.357	-4, -1.012
28	Marshall*	81.435	8-2	71.529	+3, -0.103
29	Alabama	80.793	9-3	72.990	+12, +0.645
30	Long Beach St*	80.235	5-6	79.785	+7, -0.535
31	Harvard*	80.224	9-1	71.502	+1, -1.206
32	Gonzaga	80.204	9-2	71.370	+8, -0.028
33	Seton Hall	80.135	11-1	68.757	+11, +0.310
34	Northern Iowa	80.114	9-2	73.021	-8, -2.202
35	Oklahoma	80.093	9-1	67.831	+0, -0.795
36	Florida St	79.995	8-4	71.742	-6, -1.610
37	Southern Miss	79.865	9-2	73.971	-10, -2.118
38	West Virginia	79.778	9-3	71.407	+4, -0.121
39	Middle Tennessee St*	79.703	10-2	69.828	+11, +0.479
40	Memphis	79.666	6-5	75.447	-1, -0.697
41	Michigan	79.615	9-2	69.338	-5, -1.166
42	Denver	79.558	10-2	71.156	-9, -1.822
43	Texas	79.439	9-3	68.362	-5, -1.238
44	Mississippi St	79.226	12-1	66.939	+2, -0.312
45	Iona*	79.147	10-2	72.435	-2, -0.711
46	New Mexico	79.082	9-2	68.894	+5, -0.099
47	Temple	79.002	7-3	74.710	+11, +0.132
48	San Diego St	78.981	11-2	69.660	+0, -0.453
49	Northwestern	78.971	10-2	70.236	+0, -0.342
50	Belmont*	78.935	7-5	73.047	+5, -0.046
51	Stanford	78.927	10-2	67.164	-27, -3.636
52	Virginia Tech	78.926	10-3	69.102	+1, -0.176
53	St Joseph's PA	78.633	9-3	71.772	-8, -1.132
54	New Mexico St*	78.454	7-4	71.860	-2, -0.688
55	Oregon St	78.348	10-2	65.280	+1, -0.580
56	Purdue	78.296	10-3	68.606	+10, +0.825
59	VA Commonwealth*	77.724	9-3	69.554	+4, -0.198
65	Wagner*	77.169	8-3	70.464	+15, +1.023
67	North Dakota St*	76.936	7-3	70.443	+0, -0.520
68	Lamar*	76.829	7-4	73.732	-4, -0.776
76	Lehigh*	75.821	8-4	69.244	+7, -0.066
87	Cleveland St*	74.995	10-2	71.858	+7, -0.277
89	Davidson*	74.975	6-4	74.044	-13, -1.483
112	Charleston Southern*	73.135	5-4	71.328	+19, +0.919
121	Morgan St*	72.610	2-7	75.871	+35, +1.420
122	Weber St*	72.559	6-3	71.089	-6, -0.449
180	Vermont*	69.225	6-7	69.591	+21, +0.372
264	Mississippi Valley St*	64.385	1-10	80.496	+8, -0.193

2011 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Preview - UCLA in the upset

2011-12-29T14:00:00.000-08:00

The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Illinois against UCLA. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Illinois is ranked #64 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 66.954 against a schedule strength of 67.967. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they declined a bit all year, their worst game being at Minnesota and best game being against Arkansas State. They are 3-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.

UCLA is ranked #62 by the computer with a 6-7 record and a rating of 67.517 against a schedule strength of 72.215. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were wildly inconsistent, their worst game being at Arizona and best game being against California. They are 4-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-5 picking their games against the spread and 6-4 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through ASU and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Arizona-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->California-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Colorado-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Oregon_St-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Oregon-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Southern_Cal-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Utah-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Washington_St-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Minnesota-->Southern_Cal-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Ohio_State-->Colorado-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->UCLA

Against ASU, Illinois won 17-14 at home and UCLA won 29-28 at home.

The spread is Illinois by 3 and the computer disagrees picking UCLA by 0.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.UCLA +3.0 over . Illinois 0.6 3.6 0.519 0.618

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 AutoZone Liberty Bowls Preview - Vanderbilt to win and cover

2011-12-29T13:00:00.000-08:00

The AutoZone Liberty Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Cincinnati against Vanderbilt. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Cincinnati is ranked #38 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 72.024 against a schedule strength of 64.199. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent with a few downs, their worst game being at Rutgers and best game being against North Carolina State. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.

Vanderbilt is ranked #26 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 74.358 against a schedule strength of 70.331. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were moderately consistent, getting a bit better throughout the year, their worst game being at South Carolina and best game being at Wake Forest. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through UConn and Tennessee and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Cincinnati-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
2 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Louisville-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Louisville-->Kentucky-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Miami_OH-->Army-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St-->Wake_Forest-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Rutgers-->Army-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Rutgers-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->South_Florida-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Syracuse-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Syracuse-->Wake_Forest-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Alabama-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Arkansas-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Florida-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Georgia-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Kentucky-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->South_Carolina-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->West_Virginia-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt

Against UConn, Cincinnati won 35-27 at home and Vandy won 24-21 at home. Against Tennessee, Cincinnati lost 45-23 on the road and Vandy lost 27-21 on the road.

The spread is Vandy by 1.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 2.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Vanderbilt -1.5 over . Cincinnati 2.3 0.8 0.597 0.535

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Hyundai Sun Bowl Preview - Utah to upset Georgia Tech

2011-12-29T11:00:00.000-08:00

The Hyundai Sun Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Georgia Tech against Utah. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Georgia Tech is ranked #49 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 70.303 against a schedule strength of 64.305. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down, their worst game being at Miami FL and best game being against Clemson. They are 3-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5-1 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.

Utah is ranked #44 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 71.054 against a schedule strength of 68.424. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down, their worst game being against Washington and best game being at Brigham Young. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3-1 picking their games against the spread and 4-4 picking winners in their games.

The teams are not separated by 2 or 3 degrees at all.

The spread is Georgia Tech by 3.5 and the computer disagrees picking the upset. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Utah +3.5 over . Georgia Tech 0.8 4.3 0.527 0.648

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl Preview - Texas A&M to win and cover (barely)

2011-12-29T09:42:00.000-08:00

The Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Texas A%team1%M against Northwestern. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Texas A&M is ranked #14 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 78.742 against a schedule strength of 73.124. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, their worst game being against Missouri and best game being against Baylor. They are 0-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.

Northwestern is ranked #57 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 68.598 against a schedule strength of 66.313. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were down a bit early, then better, their worst game being at Army and best game being at Nebraska. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-5 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.

The teams are not separated by 2 degrees and 3 degrees in only 4 ways as follows:

3 Texas_A&M-->Baylor-->Rice-->Northwestern
3 Texas_A&M-->Iowa_St-->Iowa-->Northwestern
3 Texas_A&M-->SMU-->Rice-->Northwestern
3 Texas_A&M-->Texas-->Rice-->Northwestern

The spread is Texas A&M by 10 and the computer agrees picking them by 10.1. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Texas A&M -10.0 over .. Northwestern 10.1 0.1 0.895 0.507

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl Preview - Mississippi State to win and cover

2011-12-29T09:00:00.000-08:00

The Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl will take place on 12/30 pitting Mississippi State against Wake Forest. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Mississippi State is ranked #30 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 73.680 against a schedule strength of 71.293. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent, their worst game being against Arkansas and best game being against Mississippi. They are 3-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 8-0 picking winners in their games.

Wake Forest is ranked #67 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 66.367 against a schedule strength of 66.452. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent with a few downs, their worst game being at North Carolina and best game being against Florida State. They are 4-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3 picking their games against the spread and 6-1 picking winners in their games.

Showing how little the SEC and ACC play, the teams are not separated by 2 degrees at all and are by 3 degrees as follows:

3 Mississippi_St-->Alabama-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Arkansas-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Auburn-->Clemson-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Georgia-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Kentucky-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Mississippi-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->South_Carolina-->Clemson-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->South_Carolina-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest

The spread is Mississippi State by 6.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 7.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Mississippi State -6.5 over .. Wake Forest 7.3 0.8 0.808 0.539

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 New Era Pinstripe Bowl Preview - Iowa State in the upset

2011-12-29T08:00:00.000-08:00

The New Era Pinstripe Bowl will take place on 12/30 pitting Rutgers against Iowa State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Rutgers is ranked #51 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 70.144 against a schedule strength of 64.055. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, more so at the end of the year, their worst game being at Connecticut and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 4-4 picking winners in their games.

Iowa State is ranked #48 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 70.389 against a schedule strength of 74.381. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were ok, then struggled, then were way up but down too, their worst game being against Texas and best game being against Oklahoma State. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through UConn and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Rutgers-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Cincinnati-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Louisville-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Pittsburgh-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Pittsburgh-->Iowa-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->South_Florida-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Syracuse-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->West_Virginia-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St

Against UConn, Iowa State won 24-20 on the road and Rutgers lost 40-22 on the road.

The spread is Rutgers by 2 and the computer disagrees picking the upset by 0.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Iowa State +2.0 over . Rutgers 0.2 2.2 0.511 0.596

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Insight Bowl Preview - Oklahoma to win, Iowa to cover

2011-12-29T07:00:00.000-08:00

The Insight Bowl will take place on 12/30 pitting Iowa against Oklahoma. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Iowa is ranked #41 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 71.753 against a schedule strength of 67.308. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent, their worst game being against Michigan State and best game being against Michigan. They are 3-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-6 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.

Oklahoma is ranked #7 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 83.030 against a schedule strength of 73.611. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good except for their 3 losses, their worst game being against Texas Tech and best game being at Kansas State. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-4 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Iowa State and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Indiana-->Ball_St-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Baylor-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Kansas-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Kansas_St-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Missouri-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Oklahoma_St-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Texas_A&M-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Texas-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Texas_Tech-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Louisiana-Monroe-->Florida_St-->Oklahoma

Against Iowa State, Iowa lost 44-41 on the road and Oklahoma won 26-6.

The spread is Oklahoma by 14 and the computer agrees but not by as much picking them by 11.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Iowa +14.0 over *. Oklahoma 11.3 2.7 0.873 0.609

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Preview - Tulsa to win and cover

2011-12-29T06:00:00.000-08:00

The Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl will take place on 12/30 pitting Brigham Young against Tulsa. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Brigham Young is ranked #45 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 71.014 against a schedule strength of 63.055. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent after an early glitch against Utah, their worst game being against Utah and best game being at Hawaii. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.

Tulsa is ranked #34 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 72.462 against a schedule strength of 67.210. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite consistent until their loss against Houston, their worst game being against Houston and best game being against SMU. They are 3-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5 picking their games against the spread and 7-0 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Central Florida and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Brigham_Young-->Central_Florida-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Central_Florida-->Alabama-Birmingham-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Central_Florida-->Marshall-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Central_Florida-->SMU-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Central_Florida-->UTEP-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Hawaii-->Tulane-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->New_Mexico_St-->UTEP-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->TCU-->Boise_St-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->TCU-->SMU-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Texas-->Oklahoma_St-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Texas-->Oklahoma-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Texas-->Rice-->Tulsa

Against Central Florida, BYU won 24-17 at home and Tulsa won 24-17 on the road.

The spread is even and the computer also has it close picking Tulsa by 1.4. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Tulsa -0.0 over . Brigham Young 1.4 1.4 0.548 0.548

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Valero Alamo Bowl Preview - Baylor to win, Washington to cover

2011-12-28T12:00:00.000-08:00

The Valero Alamo Bowl will take place on 12/29 pitting Washington against Baylor. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Washington is ranked #53 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 69.781 against a schedule strength of 69.895. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down this year, their worst game being at Oregon State and best game being at Utah. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-6 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.

Baylor is ranked #15 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 78.690 against a schedule strength of 71.994. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were ok early, but great late, their worst game being at Texas A&M and best game being against Texas. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-3 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 3 degrees in only one way, an indication of how little big Pac-12 and Big-12 play, as follows:

3 Washington-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St-->Baylor

The spread is Baylor by 10 and the computer agrees picking them by 8.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Washington +10.0 over *. Baylor 8.9 1.1 0.817 0.544

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Champs Sports Bowl Preview - Notre Dame in the upset

2011-12-28T10:00:00.000-08:00

The Champs Sports Bowl will take place on 12/29 pitting Florida State against Notre Dame. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Florida State is ranked #23 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 75.871 against a schedule strength of 64.818. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, especially late, their worst game being against Virginia and best game being at Florida. They are 2-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-2 picking their games against the spread and 4-3 picking winners in their games.

Notre Dame is ranked #22 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 76.126 against a schedule strength of 70.308. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down early, a little more consistent late but finished a little down, their worst game being against South Florida and best game being against Michigan State. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-3 picking their games against the spread and 9-0 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees 3 ways through BC, Maryland, and Wake Forest, and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Florida_St-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
2 Florida_St-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
2 Florida_St-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Boston_College-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Boston_College-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Clemson-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Clemson-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Clemson-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Duke-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Duke-->Stanford-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Duke-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Maryland-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Maryland-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Miami_FL-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Miami_FL-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Miami_FL-->South_Florida-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->North_Carolina_St-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->North_Carolina_St-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->North_Carolina_St-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Virginia-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Wake_Forest-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Wake_Forest-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame

Against BC, Florida State won 38-7 on the road and Notre Dame eked out at 16-14 win at home. Against Maryland won big on at home and Notre Dame won big effectively on the road. Against Wake Forest, FSU lost 35-30 on the road and Notre Dame won 24-17 on the road.

The spread is FSU by 3 and the computer disagrees picking the upset of Notre Dame by 0.4. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Notre Dame +3.0 over . Florida State 0.4 3.4 0.515 0.638

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl Preview - Texas to win, Cal to cover

2011-12-28T09:19:00.000-08:00

The Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl will take place on 12/28 pitting California against Texas. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

California is ranked #33 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 72.945 against a schedule strength of 69.202. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down but finished strong, their worst game being at UCLA and best game being against Utah. They are 3-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3 picking their games against the spread and 4-3 picking winners in their games.

Texas is ranked #24 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 75.652 against a schedule strength of 73.244. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were also up and down, their worst game being at Baylor and best game being at Iowa State. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-5 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through UCLA and 3 degrees as follows:

2 California-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Arizona_St-->Missouri-->Texas
3 California-->Arizona_St-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Colorado-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Oregon_St-->Brigham_Young-->Texas
3 California-->Oregon_St-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Oregon-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Southern_Cal-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Stanford-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Utah-->Brigham_Young-->Texas
3 California-->Utah-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Washington_St-->UCLA-->Texas

Against UCLA, Texas won 49-20 on the road and Cal lost 31-14 on the road.

The spread is Texas by 4 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 2.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.California +4.0 over *. Texas 2.7 1.3 0.598 0.547

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Military Bowl Preview - Toledo to win and cover

2011-12-27T13:00:00.000-08:00

The Military Bowl will take place on 12/28 pitting Toledo against Air Force. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Toledo is ranked #31 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 73.236 against a schedule strength of 65.935. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, their worst game being at Syracuse and best game being at Temple. They are 4-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-4 picking their games against the spread and 4-2 picking winners in their games.

Air Force is ranked #77 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 64.782 against a schedule strength of 62.266. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were more consistent, their worst game being against San Diego State and best game being at Boise State. They are 3-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-4 picking their games against the spread and 5-2 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Boise State as follows:

2 Toledo-->Boise_St-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Ball_St-->Army-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->Colorado_St-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->New_Mexico-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->San_Diego_St-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->TCU-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->UNLV-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->Wyoming-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Bowling_Green-->Wyoming-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Miami_OH-->Army-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Northern_Illinois-->Army-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Temple-->Army-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Temple-->Wyoming-->Air_Force

Against Boise State, Toledo lost 40-15 at home and Air Force lost 37-26 on the road.

The spread is Toledo by 3 and the computer agrees picking them by more, 7.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Toledo -3.0 over .. Air Force 7.6 4.6 0.788 0.686

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Belk Bowl Preview - Louisville to cover and almost win outright

2011-12-26T15:00:00.000-08:00

The Belk Bowl will take place on 12/27 pitting Louisville against North Carolina State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Louisville is ranked #55 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 69.608 against a schedule strength of 66.288. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent but steadily improved during the year, their worst game being against Florida Int'l and best game being at South Florida. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-5 picking their games against the spread and 1-7 picking winners in their games.

North Carolina State is ranked #54 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 69.754 against a schedule strength of 64.680. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, particularly late, their worst game being at Cincinnati and best game being against Clemson. They are 3-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-4-1 picking their games against the spread and 4-4 picking winners in their games.

The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Cincinnati and North Carolina as follows:

2 Louisville-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
2 Louisville-->North_Carolina-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Connecticut-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Kentucky-->Central_Michigan-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->North_Carolina-->Clemson-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->North_Carolina-->Georgia_Tech-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->North_Carolina-->Virginia-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->North_Carolina-->Wake_Forest-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Pittsburgh-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Rutgers-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Rutgers-->North_Carolina-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->South_Florida-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Syracuse-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Syracuse-->Wake_Forest-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->West_Virginia-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->West_Virginia-->Maryland-->North_Carolina_St

Against Cincinnati, NC State lost 44-14 on the road and Louisville lost 25-16 on the road. Against North Carolina, NC State won 13-0 at home and Louisville lost 14-7 on the road.

The spread is NC State by 3 and the computer barely agrees picking them by just 0.2. Given Louisville's strong finish Louisville plus the points seems like a good pick. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Louisville +3.0 over *. North Carolina State 0.2 2.8 0.510 0.630

Enjoy!

Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.