tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3806763551607679303.post8811077407349413222..comments2024-03-26T07:42:36.856-07:00Comments on Schmidt Computer Ratings: Why Boise State won't get to the BCS championship gameKevin Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05366406313485961849noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3806763551607679303.post-20975216215470420992011-10-31T20:02:56.661-07:002011-10-31T20:02:56.661-07:00You have convinced me that Oklahoma St. will go un...You have convinced me that Oklahoma St. will go undefeated or Stanford won't. Stanford being left out for a 1-loss Oklahoma team is less acceptable than screwing Boise St. This is actually fascinating :)Wheellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08659855618974218296noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3806763551607679303.post-60797917096610612812011-10-31T19:57:18.797-07:002011-10-31T19:57:18.797-07:00There you go trying to insert logic into the BCS. ...There you go trying to insert logic into the BCS. :)<br /><br />Without a rule against rematches, the computers can't do anything to preclude it and the LSU/Alabama loser could still be highly rated. The pollsters can vote to avoid it but may have to go to great lengths, i.e. voting the LSU/Alabama loser abnormally low, and go against the idea of voting the "better" team higher.<br /><br />Regarding Boise vs OU and schedules, my computer has BSU higher right now by nearly 3 ratings points so it would agree that they should get the nod. The problem is A) the BCS doesn't care about my computer despite it being more accurate that the BCS algorithms and B) OU still has tough opponents to play while BSU has weaker opponents and in the BCS computer's eyes they likely swap places.<br /><br />To test this, we can use my "BCS compatible" algorithm that doesn't use MOV. It is not exactly any of the BCS algorithms but behaves similar to some so can be educational to look at. It presently has OkSt, LSU, Alabama, OU, and BSU the top-5, OU being 0.5 ratings points ahead of BSU. It also has Stanford #8 and Oregon #15. If I plug in OU, BSU, UofO (beating ASU in championship game), and Alabama winning out (beating South Carolina in championship game), the rankings would be:<br /><br />1 - Alabama<br />2 - OU<br />3 - OkSt<br />4 - LSU<br />5 - UofO<br />6 - BSU<br /><br />So in this scenario Boise could be a ways back behind 4 1-loss teams having an even larger deficit to make up via the polls.<br /><br />If LSU beats Alabama, just swap them in the above list.<br /><br />If Stanford beats Oregon, interestingly Stanford would only be #5, moving ahead of BSU but not getting past OU, OkSt, and LSU/Alabama loser. My BCS algorithm's current ranking for Stanford and UofO is similar to two of the BCS computers so that may be some insight into how Stanford might get the raw end of the deal.<br /><br />But the summary is that my earlier analysis may have been optimistic about how high BSU might be in the computers and it could be worse.Kevin Schmidthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05366406313485961849noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3806763551607679303.post-67907992984110939742011-10-31T19:09:16.852-07:002011-10-31T19:09:16.852-07:00Do you remember Bowling Green in 1985? They may ha...Do you remember Bowling Green in 1985? They may have been the least respected undefeated team in our lifetimes. They ended up getting pantsed by Fresno St. in the California Bowl 51-7. Houston gets a similar level of respect and wouldn't get the nod over an 11-1 Oklahoma.<br /><br />Now, as for more deserving, can we consider past seasons? Boise St. has earned it, particularly if the alternative is Oklahoma. However, it is reasonable to not consider past seasons, even as a voter. Given that, I'd suggest that an 11-1 Oklahoma squad would go undefeated against Boise St.'s schedule more often than not. However, Boise St. would also go 11-1 or better against Oklahoma's schedule more often than not. It is the "or better" that would convince me to place Boise St. ahead of Oklahoma. <br /><br />Let's talk about "Deserve"<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SO5VO2ixWY<br /><br />You can skip to 6:35 if you like.<br /><br />There is a difference between the best team and the most deserving team. The best team is the one that would be favored on a neutral field. The most deserving team is the one that...? <br /><br />Has the best record? Has the best ELO rating? Had the "best season"? <br /><br />Boise St. has become a well known team. If they go undefeated you cannot credibly put a 1-loss team ahead of them. That means that the voters must overrule the computers (and again, shenanigans). <br /><br />As for LSU, yes, I'd take them over any non-Alabama option, but rematches are awful. Remember, "greatest regular season in sports" doesn't look so hot if the game of the century of the year is meaningless:<br /><br />http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/ohio-state-defeats-michigan-4239-in-ultimately-mea,2094/Wheellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08659855618974218296noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3806763551607679303.post-86615549949088694492011-10-31T18:27:31.913-07:002011-10-31T18:27:31.913-07:00Seth, you are right that the voters will do everyt...Seth, you are right that the voters will do everything they can to avoid an Alabama-LSU rematch. Well, all the voters outside the SEC. But that doesn't mean those won't be the best 2 teams and they shouldn't meet again.<br /><br />And you are right that there is a segment of voters that will vote for Boise given what they've done the past few years and the purity of having available unbeatens play, but the same argument would say Houston should be there if they finish the year unbeaten and that clearly wouldn't be just. The question is when is a one-loss team more deserving and "better" than a no-loss team?<br /><br />I also don't believe the computers will be hacked or any shenanigans will take place with them. They'll just give us the odd results they do. Boise's only hope in this case is that the voters decide this is the year to let them in, and I don't see that happening since OU is already so close and should they win out folks will be forced to move them up so they are close enough for the computers to make the difference.Kevin Schmidthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05366406313485961849noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3806763551607679303.post-82621183192728542622011-10-31T17:09:35.836-07:002011-10-31T17:09:35.836-07:00I can't argue against the brilliance of (fire)...I can't argue against the brilliance of (fire) Craig James, but let's examine your scenario: Oregon defeats Stanford (possible), Oklahoma wins out, including the Big 12 championship game (possible), and Alabama defeats LSU. LSU has obvious dibs over Oregon. Boise St. wins out. So, the options are:<br /><br />Alabama-LSU<br />Alabama-Oklahoma<br />Alabama-Boise St.<br /><br />The first is the highest quality game, but it is a rematch and that's obviously unacceptable.<br /><br />The second is still a very good game, but it gives lie to the sanctity of "the greatest regular season in sports". Voters would rebel, and computers can be hacked. Perhaps Anonymous would step in.<br /><br />The last option is the obvious people's choice. Butler vs. Duke. In such a scenario the Lords of the Realm would be forced to let Boise St. in. Remember, the computer formulas aren't public so even if it is fishy, Boise St. would be protected in such a scenario. In truth I don't see Stanford losing, and if the Big 12 falls to form Oklahoma will lay down for Oklahoma St. in Bedlam. <br /><br />Seth BurnWheellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08659855618974218296noreply@blogger.com