Monday, February 29, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 4.5 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, 4.0 Women and Men, and 3.0 Men and Women.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.5+ Men:

LocationAverage
TEXAS / AUSTIN4.60
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.5 - MA4.59
TEXAS / DALLAS4.58
TEXAS / FORT WORTH4.57
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.57
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.5 - SA4.57
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY4.57
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA4.56
TEXAS / FORT WORTH4.55
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY4.54
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.54
TEXAS / DALLAS4.54
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.53
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY4.52
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD4.52
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA4.52
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.51
TEXAS / DALLAS4.51
TEXAS / AUSTIN4.51
TEXAS / DALLAS4.50

Being a plus league, you would expect the top teams to have averages over 4.5 and this is the case here with nearly the entire top-20 being at 4.51 or higher.

Three different areas in Texas find themselves in the top-4 and five more Texas teams are in the top-20.  Sectionals could be brutal.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.0 Women's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, 4.0 Women and Men, and 3.0 Men, now the 3.0 Women.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Women:

LocationAverage
MISSOURI VALLEY / OKLAHOMA / OKLAHOMA CITY3.10
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.0 - EB3.09
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - SOUTHERN CRESCENT - 20163.08
SOUTHERN / KENTUCKY / KY - LOUISVILLE3.07
SOUTHERN / KENTUCKY / KY - LOUISVILLE3.06
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20163.06
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN GABRIEL VALLEY3.06
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20163.05
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / VENTURA COUNTY3.05
MISSOURI VALLEY / OKLAHOMA / OKLAHOMA CITY3.05
MIDWEST / OHIO VALLEY / COLUMBUS3.05
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20163.04
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO3.04
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.0 - SA3.04
TEXAS / AUSTIN3.03
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - SHOALS - 20163.03
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA3.03
TEXAS / AUSTIN3.02
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.0 - LP3.02
MISSOURI VALLEY / OKLAHOMA / OKLAHOMA CITY3.02

It is not uncommon to see more players rated above the top of their level in the lower NTRP levels, but what we see here is that and more with every team in the top-20 having a top-8 average over 3.0!

It looks like just getting to Southern Sectionals will be a challenge with 4 teams from Georgia in the top-12.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Friday, February 26, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.0 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, and 4.0 Women and Men, now the 3.0 Men.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Men:

LocationAverage
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - HUNTSVILLE - 20163.10
PACIFIC NW / SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON3.09
MIDWEST / OHIO VALLEY / CHARLESTON3.02
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 20163.01
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 20163.00
SOUTHERN / KENTUCKY / KY - LEXINGTON2.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - EB2.98
TEXAS / DALLAS2.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - DN2.96
PACIFIC NW / NORTHWEST WASHINGTON2.96
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - SF2.96
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN GABRIEL VALLEY2.96
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 20162.95
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 20162.95
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - HUNTSVILLE - 20162.95
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO2.95
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN GABRIEL VALLEY2.95
PACIFIC NW / SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON2.95
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - SB2.95
PACIFIC NW / NORTHWEST WASHINGTON2.95

It is not uncommon to see more players rated above the top of their level in the lower NTRP levels, and the result here is 4 teams with top-8 averages over 3.0.

Southern is represented well but PNW and both NorCal and SoCal show up several times too.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, and 4.0 Women, now the 4.0 Men.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Men:

LocationAverage
NORTHERN / NORTHERN / TWIN CITIES - 20164.04
TEXAS / DALLAS4.01
NORTHERN / NORTHERN / TWIN CITIES - 20164.00
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - SF4.00
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO4.00
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY3.99
MISSOURI VALLEY / OKLAHOMA / OKLAHOMA CITY3.99
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / SOUTH MIAMI/DADE3.98
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - MOBILE 20163.98
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA3.98
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / VENTURA COUNTY3.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - DS - 23.97
MISSOURI VALLEY / IOWA3.97
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - SB - 23.97
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD3.97
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - SB - 13.97
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - DS - 23.97
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT3.96
EASTERN / METROPOLITAN REGION / Manhattan3.96
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY3.96

Just two teams have top-8 averages higher than the top of the range for the level, but this group is deep with #20 coming in at 3.96.  It appears there are a lot of strong 4.0 teams this year.

And Northern has two of the top three teams, specifically Mineapolis/St. Paul.  But this may be essentially the same team in different seasons.  After that, it is a mix of teams from a cross section of areas.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Women's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, now the 4.0 Women.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Women:

LocationAverage
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.0 - LP - 14.02
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.01
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / BEACH CITIES3.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.0 - MP - 23.97
MISSOURI VALLEY / IOWA3.96
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD3.96
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / LOS ANGELES3.96
EASTERN / METROPOLITAN REGION / Manhattan3.95
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY3.95
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY3.95
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.0 - SB - 23.94
SOUTHERN / LOUISIANA / LA - NEW ORLEANS3.94
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY3.93
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY3.93
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT3.93
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20163.92
SOUTHWEST / CENTRAL ARIZONA3.92
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20163.92
MID ATLANTIC / MARYLAND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY3.92
TEXAS / DALLAS3.92

As we've seen at the 3.5 level, there are once again a few teams with top-8 averages higher than the top of the range for the level, although the NorCal and Georgia teams are just barely over.  And the #20 team is very strong still with a 3.92 top-8 average.

But Southern Cal dominates this list with a full 30% of the top-20.  NorCal has 3 teams and Southern as 4 with 3 of those from Georgia and specifically Atlanta.  The road to Southern Sectionals could be tough.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Saturday, February 20, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.5 Women's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men, now the 3.5 Women.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 3.5 Women:

LocationAverage
TEXAS / DALLAS3.53
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD3.52
PACIFIC NW / NORTHWEST WASHINGTON3.51
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20163.50
FLORIDA / REGION_7 / COLLIER3.50
TEXAS / DALLAS3.49
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 20163.49
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN ARIZONA3.49
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.5 - SB - 13.49
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / COACHELLA VALLEY3.49
SOUTHWEST / CENTRAL ARIZONA3.48
SOUTHWEST / CENTRAL ARIZONA3.48
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.5 - MA - 23.48
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO3.47
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.5 - MA - 23.47
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT3.47
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT3.47
FLORIDA / REGION_7 / COLLIER3.47
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 20163.47
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY3.46

The women also have several teams with top-8 averages over 3.5.  Not quite as much over, and the #20 team is at 3.46 vs the men's 3.48, but still a bunch of strong teams.

Southern teams similarly show up here, and Florida and Texas have 4 of the top 6, but the Pacific Northwest and New England are representing too.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.5 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  We'll start with the 3.5 Men.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 3.5 Men:

LocationAverage
TEXAS / AUSTIN3.57
TEXAS / DALLAS3.53
TEXAS / DALLAS3.53
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT3.52
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 20163.51
TEXAS / FORT WORTH3.51
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO3.51
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - LP3.50
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20163.50
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY3.50
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA3.50
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 20163.50
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT3.50
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - MA - 13.49
MID ATLANTIC / MARYLAND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY3.49
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 20163.49
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - EB3.49
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO3.49
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - LP3.48
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / INLAND EMPIRE3.48

Yes, there are 3.5 teams with top-8 averages over 3.5.  This happens where a team of strong 3.5s plays well and improves their ratings as a result of their play.  This sometimes happens due to players really being 4.0s and having tanked matches to get to 3.5, but it happens naturally where players simply are improving too so does not mean these teams have sandbagging or cheating players on their rosters.

Southern states are well represented here as leagues have started there earlier than other areas, but some cold weather states that play indoors show up too.

Texas holding the top three spots and Dallas with two teams at 3.53 leads the way and it will be a dog-fight to just win the local area.  But the rest of the teams nationally are close, #20 only being back at 3.48.

Naturally these ratings can change throughout the season, and self-rated players that get ratings can influence things or players that are DQ'd and not eligible could inflate ratings too.  I try to exclude ineligible players from the stats but that is sometimes difficult to determine.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Friday, February 19, 2016

Previewing the PNW 40 & over USTA League - The season starts tonight

Schedules are out and the 2016 40+ season in the Seattle area starts this weekend.

With that, I thought I'd take a look at a few sub-flights to see who the favorites are.

For the Women, here is sub-flight A of the 3.5 level:

Team NameAverage Rating
MC-Wyer3.16
FC-Mullen3.16
STC-Kellogg3.16
GC-Holtzinger3.13
AYTC-Net Reactions-Aronson3.07
CP-Suk/Garnett3.07
ACES-Rasanen3.06
MI-Howell3.05
EDG-Kim-Juhn3.02
BAIN-Hills2.95

It looks very tight at the top with three teams tied at 3.16 and another close behind at 3.13.  This sub-flight could come down to the last few matches to decide the playoff teams.

And yes, these averages are correct.  While you'd think an average 3.5 team would be around 3.25, these teams are carrying 3.0's play up and that pulls the averages down.  I can generate reports on just the top-8 rated players on each team to get a better idea of which team is strongest when they play their best players.

The Men's 4.5+ sub-flight A has:

Team NameAverage Rating
STC-Rosen4.35
HBSQ-Anderson4.29
EDG-Ko/Kelly4.25
NTC-Dalkin4.23
CP-Avery4.21
PSC-Charters4.13
AYTC-Dao4.06
PL-Jaeger3.96
This is not nearly as close with Seattle Tennis Club being well ahead.  But will they play their best line-up each match?  And are other team's averages pulled down by large rosters with some lower rated players?  The top-8 report or a team report can offer more details.

If you are interested in seeing what your flight looks like including both the overall average and top-8 averages, contact me.  And this is not limited to Seattle area leagues, I can generate these reports for any league in any section.

Have a great 40+ season!

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for the ATP through the Australian Open

I introduced doing calculations of Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for the ATP a few weeks ago and I'll be updating the ratings periodically, this post being the first update.

The list below includes the Australian Open and other tournaments played in January so you can see how player's results there affected their ratings.  And I'm showing the top-50 this time around.

RankNameRating
1Novak Djokovic7.08
2Andy Murray6.97
3Roger Federer6.96
4Milos Raonic6.84
5Tomas Berdych6.73
6Gael Monfils6.73
7Stanislas Wawrinka6.72
8Kei Nishikori6.72
9Rafael Nadal6.69
10David Ferrer6.68
11Roberto Bautista Agut6.67
12Jack Sock6.63
13Marcos Baghdatis6.63
14Bernard Tomic6.62
15Marin Cilic6.62
16Grigor Dimitrov6.62
17Nick Kyrgios6.61
18Joao Sousa6.60
19Jo Wilfried Tsonga6.60
20John Isner6.58
21Gilles Simon6.58
22Dominic Thiem6.55
23Andrey Kuznetsov6.55
24Guillermo Garcia Lopez6.54
25Viktor Troicki6.53
26Hyeon Chung6.53
27Kevin Anderson6.52
28Philipp Kohlschreiber6.51
29Mikhail Youzhny6.51
30Gilles Muller6.51
31Lukas Rosol6.50
32Leonardo Mayer6.50
33Illya Marchenko6.49
34Fabio Fognini6.49
35Andreas Seppi6.48
36Alexandr Dolgopolov6.47
37Ivo Karlovic6.46
38Teymuraz Gabashvili6.44
39Taylor Harry Fritz6.44
40Jerzy Janowicz6.43
41Thiemo De Bakker6.43
42Feliciano Lopez6.43
43Steve Johnson6.42
44Ernests Gulbis6.41
45David Goffin6.41
46Robin Haase6.41
47Edouard Roger Vasselin6.41
48Vasek Pospisil6.39
49Denis Istomin6.39
50Borna Coric6.38

Novak is at 7.08, remarkably close to the 7.07 he ended 2015 at, and maintains a clear lead over Murray and Federer who are very close, then a drop to Raonic, and another drop before the players lead by Berdych bunch up a lot more.

Again, the NTRP algorithm is very much weighted towards what you've done lately, so the above is a reflection of how players have started the year and less about how they did last year, particularly early in the year.

Women's to come.

Attribution: Match data is courtesy Jeff Sackmann / Tennis Abstract.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

What NTRP rating combinations works best in 55 & over Adult? More Interesting Tennis League Stats

In USTA League play, the 55 & over division typically uses combined ratings rather than straight NTRP levels.  For example, in 18+ and 40+, you have 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, 4.5, etc. flights where the players must be at level or can be one level lower and play up.  But in most sections, the 55 & over division are combination leagues, e.g. 7.0, 8.0, 9.0 where the ratings of the players on court cannot exceed the level for the league.  This can work because the 55 & over division is only doubles and there is no singles.

A question then is, is it better two players at the same level or a higher and lower level player making a doubles team?  I've done this sort of analysis for Mixed doubles play in the past (it is also combination of levels) and it showed that the unbalanced pairs typically win more when playing balanced pairs.  While there are more permutations with Mixed, the unbalanced pairs when the male is higher rated do tend to win more often, 57-61% of the time.

I went ahead and did the same analysis for 55+ looking at results over the past three years.  Here is what it shows by level.

First the men:

  • 7.0M - 4.0/3.0 pairs beat the 3.5/3.5 pairs 58% of the time.
  • 8.0M - 4.5/3.5 pairs beat 4.0/4.0 pairs 56% of the time.
  • 9.0M - 5.0/4.0 pairs beat the 4.5/4.5 pairs 60% of the time.


And the women:

  • 7.0W - 4.0/3.0 pairs beat the 3.5/3.5 pairs 55% of the time.
  • 8.0W - 4.5/3.5 pairs beat 4.0/4.0 pairs 55% of the time.
  • 9.0W - 5.0/4.0 pairs beat the 4.5/4.5 pairs 69% of the time.


So the trend observed in Mixed seems to hold in 55+ too, both men and women.

Now, this obviously depends on how strong the players are for their level.  It is possible that the 3.0's that play 7.0 (and the 3.5s that play 8.0 and 4.0s that play 9.0) are strong for their level and they are playing the full range of ratings for players on the balanced teams, so that could be at least a partial explanation.

Another explanation may be that the unbalanced pairs have the strongest player on the court, and if they can assert themselves, that advantage is the reason the unbalanced pairs win more often.

What do you think?

Sunday, February 7, 2016

In what month are the most USTA League matches played? Interesting tennis league stats

It is early in the 2016 calendar year, but I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how many USTA League matches were played in each month of the 2015 calendar year.

The below chart shows the number of team matches in the Women's and Men's 18 & over, 40 & over, and 55 & over leagues during last year.



The chart isn't terribly surprising as most areas have leagues in the Spring and March thru June are the busiest months for the main leagues.  But there is still quite a bit of play in January and February, probably in leagues where there is indoor play or the South, and July in areas where leagues are finishing up.

If 2016 follows this trend, we are now nearing the meat of the league season.  Have fun getting out on the courts and playing!

Friday, February 5, 2016

PNW Seattle area 2016 40 & over schedules are out

For those in the Seattle area that will be playing in the 2016 40 & over league, the schedules have been published and play begins as early at February 19.

The 18 & over league started in early January, and some teams are well into their seasons with more than half their matches completed already.  So the season can go quick!

With just two weeks before matches start, get those players signed up, scout those opponents, and plan those line-ups.  It should be a fun season!

Thursday, February 4, 2016

How do Roger Federer's 2004 through 2007 seasons compare to Novak's 2011 and 2015?

I took a look at what are considered to be Novak Djokovic's two best seasons (2011 and 2015) compare using an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report chart, so next up is Roger Federer's 2004 through 2007 run.

First, 2004.


He was well over 7.0 early in the year with consistently high results at the Australian Open, then hung around 7.0 much of the rest of the year but dipped with the Cincinnati and Olympics losses, then had some closer than expected wins in Bangkok and the Masters Cup to finish just under 7.0.  The average dynamic rating for the year was 7.00.

Next, 2005.


Arguably his best year record wise, 2015 did have him over 7.0 more consistently with high points around/over 7.1 at the majors and Indian Wells.  He dipped late again though with closer than expected matches in Bangkok and the Masters Cup again.  The average for the year was his high of 7.01.

Next, 2006.


This year looks similar to 2005 with some similar peaks, getting almost 7.2 at Wimbledon, and again finishing just under 7.0.  The average for this year was 6.99.

Last, 2007.


This year does not have the same peaks, but he hung right around 7.0 and managed to finish the year just over at 7.02.  But the average for the year was the low of this four year run at 6.97 as the same peaks weren't there.

Comparing to Novak's 2011 and 2015, they are very similar, perhaps Fed's 2005 having higher peaks, but Novak's 2011 being more consistent.  Those charts here for comparison.

Novak 2011.


His average of 7.04 is his high and a testament to his consistency.

And Novak 2015.


This average was just 6.95, his 2013 and 2014 actually having higher averages at 6.98 and 6.96.

What other seasons do you considered to be some of the best ever?

How does Novak's 2015 season compare to his 2011 season?

Novak Djokovic had a fantastic 2015 going 83-6 on the year including 27-1 in the Grand Slams.  But he had a fantastic 2011 as well, so since I'm now calculating Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings for ATP matches, I thought it would be interesting to compare the charts for each year.

Here is 2011.


Clearly a strong year with a rating over 7.0 much of the year, but he didn't finish strong with a couple losses to Ferrer and Tipsarevic at the Tour Finals and some other close wins against weaker opponents late in the year and a loss to Nishikori.

Here is 2015.


While he finished the year strong, and was over 7.0 several times during the year, he was not as far over 7.0 in 2015 as he was in 2011, nor was he as consistently over 7.0.

Since the data is connected, the relative ratings between years should have some meaning, and this would seem to indicate that perhaps his 2011 was stronger than 2015 through the majors, but just slipped a bit at the end.

Since Novak was generating higher ratings in 2011 with a similar record, one could perhaps come to the conclusion that the opponents were not as consistently strong.  There are many variables with draws and who he plays in early rounds, or if seeds are upset early and Novak doesn't have to play them late, that can influence this too, but with this many matches played, this data at least would seem to support the notion that 2015 had a slightly weaker top-50 to top-100 than 2011 did.

Attribution: Match data is courtesy Jeff Sackmann / Tennis Abstract.

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

What if Novak Djokovic were to get an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report?

I am now calculating what  Estimated Dynamic NTRP rating ATP and WTA pros would have if the algorithm was used on their matches.  After seeing the top-20 lists for the men and women, the natural next question is what would an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report look for a pro?

To start, here is what Novak Djokovic's would be for 2015.

Estimated Dynamic Rating: 7.07
Match Record: 83-6
Best Match Result: 7.27 on 8/31/15
Worst Match Result: 6.66 on 3/12/15
Highest Estimated Dynamic Rating: 7.12 on 6/29/15
Lowest Estimated Dynamic Rating: 6.74 on 3/12/15


In the chart, the matches at the Grand Slams have a G on the match rating and Masters tournaments have an M.  You can click on the image to see a larger version.

Novak's rating actually moved up and down a fair amount during the year.  He started the year at 7.06 coming off his win at the 2014 Tour Finals and he was still around 7.0 after winning the Aussie Open, but it dropped reached a low point after his close wins over Ramos and Isner at Indian Wells, which followed the loss to Federer in Dubai and a closer than expected Davis Cup win.

His rating went back up after winning Indian Wells and Miami, then went up to 7.07 in getting to the final of the French Open and then was still at 7.01 after winning Wimbledon.  He dropped some in playing Canada and Cincinnati, then had his highest match rating of the year in beating Cilic at the US Open.

The Fall season found him staying right around 7.0 until the semi and final at the Tour Finals got him over 7.0 again.

Clearly, an 83-6 record and 89 matches played is not similar to most USTA League players, but having some up and down matches is pretty common, especially those that play a lot of matches.  A range of 0.38 from low to high dynamic rating is more than most have, but most don't play this many matches either.

What do you think?

Attribution: Match data is courtesy Jeff Sackmann / Tennis Abstract.

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for the WTA - How much higher rated is Sharapova than you?

I wrote yesterday about how the players on the ATP tour would be rated if the USTA's NTRP algorithm were to be used to calculate dynamic ratings from their matches.  Today, it is time to take a first look at the WTA players.

All the same caveats I mentioned before apply again.  And again, I scaled things so that the top-400 players would be considered 6.5 or higher.

So here are the WTA top-20 through the end of 2015.

RankNameRating
1Maria Sharapova6.96
2Garbine Muguruza6.89
3Serena Williams6.87
4Petra Kvitova6.82
5Simona Halep6.79
6Karolina Pliskova6.77
7Madison Keys6.74
8Karin Knapp6.70
9Caroline Garcia6.67
10Sabine Lisicki6.63
11Mirjana Lucic6.62
12Shuai Peng6.60
13Olga Govortsova6.60
14Louisa Chirico6.59
15Mona Barthel6.58
16Lesia Tsurenko6.58
17Denisa Allertova6.57
18Flavia Pennetta6.57
19Martina Hingis6.54
20Lucie Safarova6.53

Unlike the men where Djokovic was #1, Serena is not #1 but is instead #3 behind Sharapova and Muguruza.  This is because Serena had several closer than expected wins at the US Open and then the loss to Vinci, plus she didn't play the rest of the year while the others did play more and so had a chance to improve their ratings and not lose to Serena.  It will be interesting to see how this changes when I include the Australian Open.

The women are quite a bit closer grouped at the top than the men, although there is nearly a 0.5 drop from #1 to #20 which is similar to the men.

Stay tuned for more.

Attribution: Match data is courtesy Jeff Sackmann / Tennis Abstract.

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for the ATP - How much higher rated is Novak than you?

I've toyed with calculating my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for professional tennis in the past, calculating ratings for just the 2014 men and women at the Australian Open a few years ago.  But my roots in calculating ratings for professional tennis go back to my teen years when I was calculating ratings for players from just their play at the Grand Slams.  But I digress.

More to the present, I am now calculating what ATP player's dynamic NTRP ratings would be from their play in ATP (main draw and qualies), Challenger, and Futures events going back a number of years.  Given the differences between league play and tournament play at the professional level, I would not say these ratings are perfect by any stretch, but they are interesting to look at.

The ratings below are a little preliminary, I'm still fine tuning things, but wanted to share some initial data right away for people to see and comment on.

Before we look at some ratings, a few caveats.

First, these ratings are just from singles results, no doubles matches are included.

Second, the relative difference between players listed is correct/accurate, but since this set of data is not connected to league players, the difference between ratings I calculate from league play and these is a guess.  What I did was to try to ensure that the top-400 or so were considered 6.5 or higher since the USTA guidelines state a 6.5 or 7.0 is considered world-class.

Third, the dynamic NTRP algorithm is very biased towards your most recent results.  So a high rated player that has had a couple unexpected losses due to injury, playing their worst surface, etc. may have a lower rating than you'd expect.  Similarly someone who has pulled one of those upsets or is playing on their best surface may be rated higher than expected.

Fourth, these ratings include results through the end of 2015, but do not include the Australian Open or other January tournaments.

With that said, on to the ratings!  Here are the current top-20.

RankNameRating
1Novak Djokovic7.07
2Roger Federer6.94
3Rafael Nadal6.85
4Andy Murray6.78
5Stanislas Wawrinka6.71
6Tomas Berdych6.70
7David Ferrer6.69
8Marcos Baghdatis6.68
9Kei Nishikori6.66
10Marin Cilic6.64
11Hyeon Chung6.63
12Steve Johnson6.63
13Joao Sousa6.62
14John Isner6.61
15Richard Gasquet6.60
16Jack Sock6.60
17Milos Raonic6.60
18Gilles Simon6.59
19Roberto Bautista Agut6.59
20Jo Wilfried Tsonga6.58

No surprise who is rated the highest, and Novak is #1 is by a pretty healthy margin of 0.13 based in part to Novak's win in the final at the Tour finals.  Federer and Nadal are next on the strength of their Tour Finals final/semi, but there is a 0.09 gap between them, another 0.07 to Murray, and 0.07 again to Wawrinka.  After that it does get a lot closer.

It is surising to see Baghdatis and Chung so high, but Chung did have some good results to end 2015 winning a Challenger and making the quarters at Shenzhen playing Cilic close, and while not included in the above he beat Groth in straights and played Cilic very close again in Brisbane before a respectable, albeit straight sets, loss to Novak at the Aussie Open.  Baghdatis had a run to the semis in Stockholm to end his 2015.

By the scale set by the USTA, Novak would actually be a "7.5" while the rest shown would be 7.0s.  Again, this is somewhat arbitrary given where I starting things out.  But the gap between players is representative of the algorithm and you see there is nearly a full level (0.5) between #1 and #20 which I would not have expected.  There is just 0.13 between #5 and #20 though which shows the separation of the top-4 from those behind.

It will be interesting to see how these change after the Australian Open and other January events are incorporated.  Because of the third caveat above, players can move up or down a fair amount with a few better or worse than expected results, see Baghdatis and Chung above.

Stay tuned for more.

Attribution: Match data is courtesy Jeff Sackmann / Tennis Abstract.