Saturday, October 31, 2015

2015 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Women Nationals semi-finals prediction

The semi-finals are set for the 40 & over 4.0 Women at the 2015 USTA League Nationals.

Northern California won a loaded flight 1 easily at 4-0 and 15-5 on courts, with 3 teams tied at 2-2 behind them.

Mid-Atlantic won flight 2 at 3-0 and 10-5 over Missouri Valley at 2-1 and 9-6.

Southern California won flight 3 at 3-0 and 11-5 over a 2-1 and 10-4 Florida.

And New England won flight 4 at 3-0 and 11-4 over a 2-1 and 9-6 Pacific Northwest.

With the matches from the flight taken into account, the top-8 average ratings say Northern Cal is an ever so flight favorite over Southern Cal, and New England is a similarly slight favorite over over Mid-Atlantic.  The final has Northern Cal a slightly larger favorite to beat New England.

We'll find out how it ends up tomorrow!

2015 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Men Nationals semi-finals prediction

The semi-finals are set for the 40 & over 4.0 Men at the 2015 USTA League Nationals.

Texas won flight 5 as the flight favorite there going 4-0 and 17-3 on courts, having it wrapped up before their last match.

Middle States won flight 6 going 3-0 and 12-3 on courts, almost having it wrapped up before their last match.

New England won a very tight flight 7 at 2-1 and 8-7 on courts beating out Southern Cal who was also 2-1 and 7-8 on courts.

Last, Intermountain, the favorite in their flight won flight 8 comfortably at 3-0 and 10-5.

With the results of the flight play included, Texas is favored over New England and Intermountain over Middle States, with Texas the pick to win it all.  We'll see tomorrow!

Friday, October 30, 2015

Day one of 40+ 4.0 USTA League Nationals is in the books

The first day of the last weekend of USTA League Adult Nationals is complete.

The 40+ 4.0 Women flights sees Northern Cal and Midwest leading flight 1 at 2-0.  They play tomorrow and the winner will likely win the flight.

Mid-Atlantic leads flight 2 at 2-0 and they play 0-2 Hawaii tomorrow so any win gets them to the semis, but a loss and one of the 1-1 teams will advance.

Flight 3 is led by Northern and Southern Cal, both at 1-0, and flight 4 is led with PNW and New England at 1-0.  There is a lot of tennis to go in each of these flights.

The 40+ 4.0 Men flights has Texas leading flight 5 at 2-0, but with 2 matches to play tomorrow, several teams still in it.

Middle States leads flight 6 at 2-0 and almost has it wrapped up, needing just 2 courts to advance to the semis.

Flight 7 is led by Southern Cal, but they likely need a win to advance.

And flight 8 is led by Intermountain, they get to play 0-2 Southwest in their match tomorrow to get to the semis.

Good luck to all!

The 2015 USTA League year is almost over, NTRP ratings will soon be calculated

The last weekend of USTA League Adult Nationals completes this weekend, and with that, the year ends for Adult NTRP rating purposes.  So what exactly does that mean?  It is all a bit confusing the way the USTA does it, but here is a hopefully concise explanation.

Year-end ratings are generally released the week after Thanksgiving, so they aren't really through calendar year-end, but they are still given a rating date of 12/31.  So what is the "year" they are calculated for?

Generally the year runs from November thru October, but more precisely the league year typically ends when the last Adult League Nationals finishes.  This makes sense, you'd want the matches from Nationals to count!  But this also means that matches played in other leagues that count on or before that cut-off date will also count.  This is true even if it is an early start league for the following year.

While this may seem strange that a "2016" league will count for your 2015 year-end rating, this also makes sense because the matches are played during the 2015 league year, and since some early start leagues start back in the late Spring and early Summer, it would be stranger to be including matches from May 2015 in your 2016 year-end rating.

So why, if the cut-off date is this Sunday November 1st, do ratings not come out for another 4+ weeks?  My guess is that the USTA uses this time to do all the benchmark and other year-end calculations and review and determination of if any adjustments will be made.

Note that Mixed Nationals are still to be played November 13-15 and 20-22, so while I have not confirmed this, I think the cut-off for Mixed-exclusive ratings would be November 22nd.  That means the USTA only has a week or so to turn around "M" ratings, but with the vast majority of players playing Adult league, there aren't that many M-rated players so they are able to do it.

Of course, this leads to players being in this limbo state where the matches are all done and there is nothing they can do to influence their rating, but they have to wait to find out what it is.  With many leagues start right away in January, players and captains would like to know sooner than December what their NTRP level will be so they can form teams and not be rushed to do it all during the holidays.

For those that are impatient and wanting to plan, or just curious what their rating is or how their rating has changed match by match, I can generate Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports.  These reports show what I estimate your dynamic NTRP rating to be, but also show a bevy of statistics for your 2015 season including a chart showing match by match how each match rated and affected your dynamic rating, plus you get a partner report showing how your matches rated when playing with your different doubles partners.


And while the USTA does not calculate separate singles and doubles ratings, my reports will show you how you've done in both, singles matches in green and doubles matches in blue, so you can see which you do better in.

And if you were fortunate to go to and play at Nationals this year, my reports always include all relevant matches played including playoff matches, so you can see how those rate and the impact they have on your dynamic rating.  Each phase of playoffs is noted in the chart as well, D for Districts, S for Sectionals, and N for Nationals as you can see above.

If you are interested in getting a report, contact me and I can generate a report for you or answer any questions you might have.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 4.0 Men Preview

The last weekend of Adult Nationals is October 30-November 1 and has the 40 & over division 4.0 level playing.  Here is a preview of the 4.0 Men.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

The highest top-8 average is 4.18 and the lowest is 3.86.

Flight 5 may be the toughest with Caribbean, Eastern, Florida, Midwest, and Texas comprising the #2, #3, #10, #11, and #15 teams.

Flight 8 with Intermountain, Northern California, Southern, and Southwest is pretty tough with the #1, #5, #7, and #14 teams.

Flight 6 is not far behind with Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, and Pacific Northwest comprising the #4, #8, #9, and #13 teams.

Flight 7 has Missouri Valley, New England, Northern, and Southern California comprising the #6, #12, #16, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 4.0 Women Preview

The last weekend of Adult Nationals is October 30-November 1 and has the 40 & over division 4.0 level playing.  Here is a preview of the 4.0 Women.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

The top team has a top-8 average of 4.11 while the lowest rated team is at 3.84.

Flight 4 appears to be the toughest with Caribbean, Eastern, New England, and Pacific Northwest comprising the #1, #2, #5, and #16 teams.

Flight 1 is not far behind with Intermountain, Midwest, Northern California, Southern, and Texas comprising the #3, #6, #8, #9, and #15 teams.  With some traditionally strong sections, this could be very tough to advance out of.

Flight 2 with Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, and Missouri Valley comprises the #4, #11, #12, and #13 teams.

Last, flight 3 has Florida, Northern, Southern California, and Southwest comprising the #7, #10, #14, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Congratulations to this weekend's 2015 USTA League Nationals Champions - 40+ 3.5 and 4.5+ and 55+ 6.0 and 8.0

The 2015 USTA League Nationals continued this weekend with play in the 40 & over and 55 & over divisions.

The 40 & over 3.5 Women was won by Texas with a 3-2 win over Pacific Northwest.

The 40 & over 3.5 Men had a very close final with 4 matches going to match tie-breaks and Caribbean winning 3 of them to get the 3-2 win over Pacific Northwest.

Florida won the 40 & over 4.5+ Women with a 3-2 win over Hawaii, all 3 wins in straight sets.

The Men's 40 & over 4.5+ was won by Mid-Atlantic with a 5-0 drubbing of Intermountain, all in straight sets!

The 55 & over 6.0 Women was won by Florida over Pacific Northwest 3-0.

The 55 & over 6.0 Men was won by Northern over Northern Cal 2-1, a win for each team going to a match tie-break.

Southern Cal on the 55 & over 8.0 Women beating Pacific Northwest 2-1.

And Southern beat Florida in the 55 & over 8.0 Men 2-1.

A full summary of the results from this weekend and the past 2 weeks can be seen here.


Wednesday, October 21, 2015

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 4.5+ Men Preview

The fourth weekend of Nationals is October 23-25 and has two more 40 & over divisions being contested.  I've already previewed the 3.5 Men and Women, and 4.5+ Women, here is a preview of the 4.5+ Men.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

There is another large range from top to bottom, 4.73 for a couple of teams at the top down to 4.47 for the lower rated top-8.  Yes, there are a couple of 5.0s on these rosters that inflates the average, but that is a pretty big range and high top-8 average for the top teams.

Flight 8 has Florida, Intermountain, Missouri Valley, and Southern and appears to be the toughest with the #2, #3, #6, and #9 teams.  This flight winner will be battle tested or wiped out when they get to the semis.

Flight 6 has Eastern, Middle States, Southern Cal, and Texas and comprises the #4, #7, #8, and #14 teams.

Flight 7 with Mid-Atlantic, Northern, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest has the top team, but falls off after that with the #10, #12, and #16 teams.

Flight 5 with Hawaii, Midwest, New England and Northern Cal has the #5, #11, #13, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 4.5+ Women Preview

The fourth weekend of Nationals is October 23-25 and has two more 40 & over divisions being contested.  I've already previewed the 3.5 Men and Women, here is a preview of the 4.5+ Women.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

There is a fairly big range from the top team's 4.68 down to 4.36.  But being a plus league, how many and where your 5.0 player's rate makes a big difference here.

The flights are actually quite balanced, so I'll just go through them in order.

Flight 1 has Caribbean, Eastern, Hawaii, New England, and Texas and comprises the #2, #5, #6, #11, and #14 teams.

Flight 2 has Northern, Pacific Northwest, Southern, and Southwest which includes the #3, #7, #12, and #17 teams.

Flight 3 has Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Missouri Valley, and Southern Cal comprising the #4, #9, #10, and #16 teams.

Flight 4 has Florida, Intermountain, Midwest, and Northern Cal which includes the #1, #8, #13, and #15 teams.

So the top-4 seeds are all in different flights and could in theory all reach the semis.  We'll see if that happens.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Congratulations to this weekend's 2015 USTA League Nationals Champions

The third weekend of 2015 Nationals is complete and four more teams are going home with National Championships.  The 18 & over division is now complete with the 2.5 level being played this weekend.

The 18 & over 2.5 Women's title was won by Southern with 2-1 wins over Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Northwest.  Southern was the top seed in their flight and #3 overall going in to Nationals, but did have to beat the pre-Nationals #2 seed in the semi.

Caribbean won the 18 & over 2.5 Men with a 3-0 result over Northern Cal after a 2-1 win over Pacific Northwest.

The 40 & over division got started with the 3.0 level playing and the Women's title was won by Southern getting 3-2 wins over Texas and Northern Cal in the semis and final.

The 40 & over 3.0 Men's title was won by Caribbean, also having 3-2 wins in their semi and final over Texas and Southern.

Congratulations to all!

Next weekend brings another set of Nationals with the 40 & over 3.5 and 4.5+ levels and the 55 & over getting started with the 6.0 and 8.0 levels playing.  Stay tuned for more details and previews.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Nothing decided yet for the 40 & over 3.0 Women at 2015 USTA League Nationals

After the first day of the 40+ 3.0 Women's Nationals, nothing has been decided.

Flight 1 has a 2-0 team in Northern Cal, but with two matches still to play and other teams 1-0 (Mid-Atlantic) and 1-1 (Caribbean), far to early to call it.

Flight 2 is tight with two 1-0 teams (both won 3-2) and two 0-1 teams (lost 3-2) so much to be decided today.

Flight 3 does have a 2-0 team in New England, but with both wins just 3-2 and two 1-1 teams (6-4, and 5-5), any of those teams could still win it.

Flight 4 is like flight 2 except Texas did win 4-1 so has a flight advantage, but two matches today will tell the story.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 2.5 Women Preview

The third weekend of Nationals is October 16-18 and has the 18 & over division wrapping up with the 2.5 level playing, and the 40 & over gets started 3.0 level competing.  Here is a preview of the 2.5 Women.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

The highest top-8 average is 2.65 and the lowest is 2.31.

Flight 4 with Caribbean, Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, and New England comprises the #2, #3, #5, and #16 rated teams.

Flight 2 has Eastern, Southern, Southwest, and Texas which includes the #4, #6, #8, and #11 teams.

Flight 1 has Florida, Midwest, Missouri Valley, Pacific Northwest, and Southern California which comprises the #1, #10, #12, #13, and #17 rated teams.

Last, flight 3 with Intermountain, Middle States, Northern, and Northern California compriases the #7, #9, #14, and #15 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 3.5 Women Preview

The fourth weekend of Nationals is October 23-25 and has the 40 & over division continuing with the 3.5 and 4.5+ levels playing.  Here is a preview of the 3.5 Women.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

The top team has a whopping top-8 average of 3.73(!) which makes the lowest of 3.44 seem awfully low, but that is still a strong team.

Flight 4 is likely the toughest with Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Southern California, and Texas and the teams rated #1, #4, #6, and #10.

Flight 2 is not far behind with Eastern, Hawaii, New England, and Southern and the teams rated #2, #3, #9, and #11.

Flight 1 is next with Florida, Intermountain, Middle States, Missouri Valley, and Northern which has the teams #5, #7, #12, #14, and #15.

Last is flight 3 with Caribbean, Northern California, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest having the teams rated #8, #13, #16, and #17.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 3.5 Men Preview

The fourth weekend of Nationals is October 23-25 and has the 40 & over division continuing with the 3.5 and 4.5+ levels playing.  Here is a preview of the 3.5 Men.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

There is a healthy range from the top to bottom with the top team having a top-8 average of a whopping 3.66, the lowest being just 3.31.  But that bottom team is from a section that is perennially underrated and the next team is at 3.48, so perhaps not that large a gap from top to bottom.

Flight 7 with Florida, Intermountain, Southern, and Texas appears to be the strongest with the #2, #3, #7, and #14 teams.

Flight 5 with Hawaii, Missouri Valley, Pacific Northwest, Southern California, and Southwest has the #4, #6, #11, #12, and #16 teams.

Flight 6 has Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, New England, and Northern and comprises the #1, #8, #9, and #15 teams.

Last, flight 8 has Caribbean, Middle States, Midwest, and Northern California and the #5, #10, #13, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 3.0 Women Preview

The third weekend of Nationals is October 16-18 and has the 40 & over division starting with the 3.0 level playing.  Here is a preview of the 3.0 Women.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

The top team has a top-8 average of 3.20 and the bottom just 2.88, but that team is from a section that is typically underrated.

Flight 7 appears to be the toughest with Eastern, Middle States, New England, and Southern California comprising the teams rated #2, #3, #9, and #12.

Flight 6 is next with Intermountain, Midwest, Southern, and Southwest comprising the teams rated #5, #6, #7, and #10.

Flight 8 with Missouri Valley, Northern, Pacific Northwest, and Texas has the #1 team and also #11, #13, and #14.

Last, flight 5 with Caribbean, Florida, Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, and Northern California comprises the #4, #8, #15, #16, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 3.0 Men Preview

The third weekend of Nationals is October 16-18 and has the 40 & over division starting with the 3.0 level playing.  Here is a preview of the 3.0 Men.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

There are three 5 team flights for the 3.0 Men as two sections are not sending teams.  That means there should be a wildcard in the semis.

The top team has a top-8 average of 3.26 down to the lowest at 2.89.

Flight 2 appears to be the toughest with Caribbean, Eastern, Hawaii, Southern, and Southern California which includes the #1, #2, #6, #7, and #8 teams.  Whew, getting out of this flight will be though and perhaps the wildcard comes from here.

Flight 1 has Middle States, Midwest, Northern California, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest which comprises the #4, #5, #12, #14, and #15 teams.

Flight 3 has Florida, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Missouri Valley, and Texas which comprises the #3, #9, #10, #11, and #13 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

When will 2015 USTA NTRP year-end ratings come out?

There are still several weekends of Nationals still to be played, but a popular question is now becoming when will year-end ratings be out?  The short answer is they typically come out the week after Thanksgiving, but let's take a look at the whole process.

Asside from Early Start Ratings that come out in some sections, the USTA publishes ratings for players once a year with what are called year-end ratings.  What is slightly odd is that while they are called "year-end" and the date shown for the rating on TennisLink is 12/31, they actually don't reflect play for the calendar year ending on that date.  Instead, they reflect play during the "USTA year" which is generally November thru October.

The reason for this is several fold.  First, in many areas, league play starts right away in January so players really need to know their rating far enough in advance to plan and assemble rosters.  Second, the main league play for the year is complete once Nationals finish, which is usually the end of October or so.

What all this means is that once the last 18+/40+/55+ Nationals finish (November 1st this year, November 9th last year), no more matches count towards your year-end rating and the USTA goes about calculating year-end ratings including adding in secondary leagues, tournaments, and doing benchmark calculations and any other adjustments they deem necessary.  Whether or not a full month is required for this, that is about how long it takes and the year-end ratings are published typically the Monday after Thanksgiving.  That would put the date as November 30 this year so we'll see if that is accurate this year.

Note that it isn't just Nationals matches from October that are included in your year-end rating.  Any matches you play in other leagues that count, even early start "2016" leagues, that are played on or before 11/1 will be included in your year-end rating.

So there you have it, the estimated date for year-end ratings is 11/30.  As always, should you want an estimate of where your rating is likely to be at year-end, or you just want to see how your rating has changed from match to match and over the course of the year, contact me to find out more about an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report.

Southern California could be on its way to getting "punished" in the year-end NTRP ratings

The Southern California section of the USTA has gotten off to a hot start the first two weekends of Nationals.  See the 2015 Nationals summary I'm keeping up to date for details, but while SoCal has won only one Nationals Championship, they have made the semi-finals in 7 of the other 9 events including 3 second place finishes.

Last year, the sections that did well at Nationals found themselves with a far larger number of players bumped up than bumped down as part of the year-end calculations and also what appears to have been some manual adjustments the USTA made to try to make the sections more even.  What is interesting is that SoCal was one of the sections that did receive more bumps up than average and they seem to be doing even better than last year so far.

Perhaps there is just a larger pool of players in SoCal, or they've been able to draw new players in to league play that have increased the pool of good players, but in any case at least in the 18 & over division, SoCal has dominated.  Using the points I assign for results, SoCal has 21 and the next closest, Florida, is at just 12.  With a strong finish next week in the 2.5 division, SoCal could double the next closest pursuer.

Does this mean SoCal will see another adjustment at year-end to bump more players up?  We'll see in about 7 weeks when year-end ratings come out!

Four more 2015 USTA League National Championships are won

The second weekend of 2015 Nationals is complete and four more 18 & over teams are going home with National Championships.  After last week's Nationals, the 18 & over division is nearly complete with just the 2.5 level still to be played.

The 3.5 Women's title was won by Southern Cal as predicted earlier today.  Their semi was a close 3-2 win, but the final was a 5-0 white washing.

Texas was the favorite going in to the 3.5 Men's event and they pulled it out with 3-2 wins in the semis and final as predicted.

The 4.5 Women saw the favorite Missouri Valley beat Southern Cal as predicted.

And the 4.5 Men saw Midwest win the title after favorite Southern was beaten 3-2 by Southern Cal in the semis.

My Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings did very well predicting these semis and finals with 3 of 4 National Champs being predicted correctly.  Matches still have to be played naturally, but the stronger team by the numbers usually does win.

Congratulations to all!

Next weekend brings another set of Nationals, stay tuned for more details and previews.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 4.5 Women semi-finals are set, up to date prediction here

The semi-finals for the Women at the 18 & over 4.5 Nationals are set and here are what they look like.

In one semi-final, Midwest, who won their flight by one court on a tie-breaker, will face Missouri Valley who went 3-0 in their flight.

The other semi-final pits Southern Cal against New England, both teams winning each of their flight matches.

This means the pre-Nationals #1, #5, #10, and #12 seeds made the semis.

But when factoring in play from the flights at Nationals, the ratings say Missouri Valley and Southern Cal (barely) should be in the final and Missouri Valley should win a close final.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 4.5 Men semi-finals are set, up to date prediction here

The semi-finals for the Men at the 18 & over 4.5 Nationals are set and here are what they look like.

In one semi-final, Texas faces Midwest, both going 3-0 in their flights.

The other semi-final pits Southern Cal against Southern, both teams winning each of their flight matches as well.

This means the pre-Nationals #1, #6, #8, and #10 seeds made the semis.

But when factoring in play from the flights at Nationals, the ratings say Midwest and Southern should be in the final and Southern should win a very very close final.  But this one is extremely close, the top-3 teams are separated by just 0.03, so no result would be a big upset.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 3.5 Women semi-finals are set, up to date prediction here

Today's matches appear complete for the Women at the 18 & over 3.5 Nationals and here are what the semi-finals look like.

In one semi-final, Florida and Southern will face off.  Florida won fewer courts than Midwest, but won the head to head match to win their flight, and Southern finished 2-1 with New England but one one more court to get that spot.

The other semi-final pits Southern Cal against Pacific  Northwest, both teams winning each of their flight matches.

This means the pre-Nationals #5, #7, #11, and #13 seeds made the semis, so there were some upsets.

But when factoring in play from the flights at Nationals, the ratings say Florida and SoCal should be in the final and SoCal should win the final.  But this one is close and these teams have already been pulling upsets.

It's not too late to get a team or flight report if anyone is interested.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 3.5 Men semi-finals are set, up to date prediction here

Today's matches appear complete for the Men at the 18 & over 3.5 Nationals and here are what the semi-finals look like.

In one semi-final, Florida and Texas will face off.  Texas was the top seed in their flight but Florida was second in theirs.

The other semi-final is the battle for California with Southern Cal playing Northern Cal, both top seeds in their flights.

This means the pre-Nationals #1, #2, #3, and #11 seeds made the semis.

But when factoring in play from the flights at Nationals, the ratings say Texas and NorCal should be in the final, but NorCal/SoCal should be really close, and Texas should win a very close match over NorCal.  But this one is close enough that how guys play and what match-ups the captains get will probably decide it.

It's not too late to get a team or flight report if anyone is interested.

How things look after day 1 at the 3.5 18 & over USTA League Nationals

Day one is complete, from what I hear it went late into the night as a heat rule went into affect and matches were delayed, and here is how things look in the Men's and Women's 3.5 USTA League Nationals.

For the 3.5 Men, flight 5 will settle the winner with a showdown today between Caribbean and Texas, both 2-0 and only one lost court between them.

Southern Cal controls flight 6 at 2-0 but with both wins being just 3-2, there is still an opening for Missouri Valley and Eastern.

Flight 7 finds Florida and Mid-Atlantic both 2-0, both 7-3 on courts, the winner to decide the semi-finalist.

And flight 8 is another close one with Northern Cal at 2-0 but also two 3-2 wins meaning Southern and Middle States still have a shot.

The 3.5 Women, flight 1 still has two matches to play, but Midwest and Florida are leading at 2-0 and the winner likely to come from that pair.

Flight 2 only had two teams get two matches in so Caribbean and Southern Cal are both 1-0, but a lot of tennis still to play.

Flight 3 has New England and Southern both just 1-0, so similarly a long way to go.

Flight 4 is led by Missouri Valley and Pacific Northwest both at 1-0.

Let's hope they aren't too hot today and get all the matches in on time!

Thursday, October 8, 2015

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 3.5 Women Preview

The second weekend of Nationals is October 9-11 and has the 18 & over 3.5 and 4.5 levels competing.  I've already previewed the 3.5 Men and 4.5 Men, and here is a preview for the 3.5 Women.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

There is a healthy range from the top to bottom with the top team having a top-8 average of 3.68, the lowest being just 3.48.  Nearly every team averages over 3.5!

Flight 3 with Eastern, Middle States, New England, and Southern should be tough with the #4, #5, #6, and #11 teams.

Flight 4 with Missouri Valley, Northern, Pacific Northwest, and Texas is also tough with #2, #3, #12, and #16.

Flight 1 with Hawaii, Florida, Midwest, Northern California, and Southwest is next with the #1, #8, #9, #10, and #15 teams.

Flight 2 with Caribbean, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern California appears weakest with #17, #13, #14, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 4.5 Women Preview

The second weekend of Nationals is October 9-11 and has the 18 & over 3.5 and 4.5 levels competing.  I've already previewed the 3.5 Men and 4.5 Men, and here is a preview for the 4.5 Women.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

There is a healthy range from the top to bottom with the top team having a top-8 average of a whopping 4.59, the lowest being just 4.35.

Flight 4 with Caribbean, Middle States, New England, and Texas does not have the highest rated teams, but may be the toughest flight to get out of with the #5, #6, #7, and #10 rated teams.

Flight 3 with Florida, Missouri Valley, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest is the next strongest with the #1 and #2 rated teams, but also has the #14 and #17 teams.

Flight 2 with Hawaii, Northern, Southern, and Southern California is similar with the #3 and #4 teams, but also #12 and #15.

Flight 1 with Eastern, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Northern California will be competitive with the #8, #9, #11, #13, and #16 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

2015 USTA League Nationals continue this weekend

This weekend October 9-11 sees USTA League Nationals continue with the 18 & over 3.5 and 4.5 levels playing in Indian Wells and Rancho Mirage respectively.

I already previewed the 3.5 Men and 4.5 Men and am working on others now so stay tuned.

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Team report customers do well at USTA League Nationals

I was fortunate to work with a couple of teams that played at Nationals this weekend providing individual and team reports to them, and pleased to see that they did well, both winning their flights.  While neither won it all, making the semis and finishing in the top-4 is quite the accomplishment.  Congratulations!

With my estimated ratings predicting match winners at nearly an 80% clip, knowing how the players on your or the opposition's team all stack up can be very useful.  Anything a team can do to give themselves the chance of getting more favorable match-ups on at least 3 courts (or 2 for the 2.5 and 5.0+ levels) would be a good thing and team reports can help with that.

Contact me if interested in getting any reports for yourself or your team.

How well did the ratings predict individual matches at USTA League Nationals this weekend?

When Nationals comes around, it is always fun to take a look at how the my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings predict matches.  So with one weekend of play at 3 levels complete, here is a first look.

For this analysis I'm taking a look at the semis and final for each level and gender and looking only at completed matches.  These are matches players should be going all out in, but by ignoring any retirements the analysis is not skewed by results where the better player retired because their team had already won.

In the Women's 3.0 level, one semi predicted 3 of the 4 completed matches, and in the other semi 5 of 5 were predicted correctly.  In the final, all 5 courts were also picked correctly.  Going 13 for 14 isn't too bad.

The Men's 3.0 level saw one semi have only 2 of 5 picked correctly, but each of the misses were on essentially pick'em matches where the rating difference was less than 0.05.  The other semi had 4 of 5 picked correctly.  The final saw all 5 courts picked correctly.  So this total 11 of 15.

The 4.0 Women's first semi, 4 of 5 were picked right, the one miss having a difference of less than 0.01, the second semi had 4 of 5 as well, and the final had 4 of 5 picked correctly to boot.  So that is 12 of 15.

For the 4.0 Men, the first semi had just 2 of 5 picked right, the other had 3 of 5, one miss being a near pick'em, and the final had 5 of 5 picked correct.  This is 10 of 15 right.

The 5.0+ Women had one semi with 2 of 3 correct, the miss having a difference of just 0.06, the other was 3 of 3 correct, and the final was 3 of 3.  This is a total of 8 of 9 correct.

For the 5.0+ Men, one semi had 2 of 3 predicted correct, the one miss having a difference of just 0.01, the other semi just 1 of 3, and the final 3 of 3.  This is 6 of 9 correct.

What does this all mean?  While ratings are not perfect at predicting matches, they do give a very good indication of who the stronger player/pair are and who is likely to win.  In the case of the semis and finals this weekend, they predicted 60 of 77, or 78%.

I'll continue to monitor this the rest of this month and report back.

The first 2015 National Champions are crowned

The first weekend of USTA League Nationals is complete and six National Champs have been crowned.

At the 3.0 level, Florida beat Southern Cal winning all three doubles matches to take the Women's title, and Caribbean won the Men's with a 3-2 win over Middle States.

The 4.0 Women's title goes to Northern California with a 3-2 win over Pacific Northwest while the Texas team won the Men's championship with a 5-0 win over Southwest.

The 5.0+ level had the Southern Women beating Florida 2-1 while the Men had Intermountain with a 2-1 win over Southern.

A tally of the 2015 Nationals can be found here and it will be kept up to date over the next 4 weeks.

Congratulations to all of the teams on a job well done.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 5.0+ Men semi-finals are set, up to date prediction here

The semi-finals for the 18+ 5.0+ Men are set.  I'm guessing a bit on the match-ups since TennisLink doesn't show them yet.

In one semi, Southern Cal, #4 seed in their flight, will play Southern, #2 seed in their flight.

The other semi has Pacific Northwest, #2 seed from their flight playing Intermountain, the wildcard and #1 seed from their same flight.

This means the pre-Nationals, #2, #3, #5, and #11 teams advanced.

But when factoring in the play at Nationals, the top-8 averages for each team would predict Southern Cal and Intermountain advancing to the final with Intermountain winning it all.  This of course assumes top-8 averages represent how a team match will go, but who actually plays and getting favorable match-ups is equally as important.  And it appears some teams may not have their top-8 at Nationals, so it should be interesting.

Update: Corrected match-ups per TennisLink.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 5.0+ Women semi-finals are set, up to date prediction here

The semi-finals for the 18+ 5.0+ Women are set.  I'm guessing a bit on the match-ups since TennisLink doesn't show them yet.

In one semi, Eastern, #3 seed in their flight, will play Southern, top seed from their flight.

The other semi has Southern Cal, top seed in their flight, playing Florida, the wildcard.

This means the pre-Nationals, #3, #4, #6, and #13 teams advanced.

But when factoring in the play at Nationals, the top-8 averages for each team would predict Southern and Southern Cal advancing to the final with Southern winning it all.  This of course assumes top-8 averages represent how a team match will go, but who actually plays and getting favorable match-ups is equally as important.  And it appears some teams may not have their top-8 at Nationals, so it should be interesting.

Saturday, October 3, 2015

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 4.0 Women semi-finals are set, up to date prediction here

The semi-finals for the 18+ 4.0 Women are set.

In one semi, Northern Cal, top seed from the 5-team flight, will play Florida, third seed from their flight.

The other semi has Pacific Northwest, the bottom seed in their flight, playing Midwest, the #2 seed in their flight.

This means the pre-Nationals, #1, #7, #11, and #16 teams advanced.

But when factoring in the play at Nationals, the top-8 averages for each team would predict Northern Cal and Midwest advancing to the final with Northern Cal winning it all.  This of course assumes top-8 averages represent how a team match will go, but who actually plays and getting favorable match-ups is equally as important.  And it appears some teams may not have their top-8 at Nationals, so it should be interesting.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 3.0 Women semi-finals are set, up to date prediction here

The semi-finals for the 18+ 3.0 Women are set.

In one semi, Florida, the winner of the 5-team flight and #2 overall seed coming in will face Intermountain, the second seed in their flight.

The other semi finds Missouri Valley, a very close second seed in flight and winner of a tie-break at 2-1 against the team they lost to,  going up against Southern Cal, the lowest seed in their flight and winner of a 3-way tie at 2-1.

This means the pre-Nationals, #2,  #6, #11, and #12 teams advanced.  There were some upsets!

But when factoring in the play at Nationals, the top-8 averages for each team would predict Florida and Missouri Valley advancing to the final with Florida winning it all.  This of course assumes top-8 averages represent how a team match will go, but who actually plays and getting favorable match-ups is equally as important.  And it appears some teams may not have their top-8 at Nationals, so it should be interesting.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 3.0 Men semi-finals are set, up to date prediction here

The semi-finals for the 18+ 3.0 Men are set.

In one semi, Northern Cal, my top seed in their flight, will play Caribbean, the 3rd seeded in their flight (but perennially underrated).

The other semi finds Pacific Northwest coming out of the toughest flight facing Middle States, the top seed coming in to Nationals.

This means the pre-Nationals, #1, #4, #7, and #11 teams advanced.

But when factoring in the play at Nationals, the top-8 averages for each team would predict Caribbean and Middle States advancing, both narrowly, to the final with Middle States winning it all.  This of course assumes top-8 averages represent how a team match will go, but who actually plays and getting favorable match-ups is equally as important.  And it appears some teams may not have their top-8 at Nationals, so it should be interesting.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 4.0 Men semi-finals are set, up to date prediction here

The semi-finals for the 18+ 4.0 Men are set.

In one semi, Texas, the top seed in their flight will play Southern Cal, the the top seed in theirs, in a match-up of the top-2 overall seeds coming in to Nationals.

The other semi has Southwest, the top-seed in their flight facing Northern, the #3 seed in theirs.

This means the pre-Nationals, #1, #2, #6, and #7 teams advanced.

But when factoring in the play at Nationals, the top-8 averages for each team would predict Southern Cal and Northern advancing to the final with Southern Cal winning it all.  This of course assumes top-8 averages represent how a team match will go, but who actually plays and getting favorable match-ups is equally as important.  And it appears some teams may not have their top-8 at Nationals, so it should be interesting.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 4.0 Women status after day 1

Here is how the flights look for the 18+ 4.0 Women after day 1.  Also see how the ratings predicted the day 1 matches.

Flight 1 is the 5 team flight so has several matches to go but favorite and 2nd favorite Northern Cal and Intermountain are 2-0, their match likely deciding it.

Flight 2 has upset minded Pacific Northwest at 2-0 with wins over 1-1 Southwest and New England already but still needing a win to wrap it up.

Flight 3 has favorite Southern Cal at 1-1, but Eastern and Florida are both 1-0 so that winner could emerge as the flight winner.

Flight 4 has 2 matches each to play today, but Midwest and Mid-Atlantic are leading at 1-0.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 4.0 Men status after day 1

After day 1, here is how things stand in the 18+ 4.0 Men's flights.  See how the ratings predicted day 1 matches as well.

Flight 5 is led by favorite Texas but their match against also 2-0 Middle States will decide the flight winner.

Flight 6 has favorite Southwest leading the way but Caribbean could still pass them with a 4-1 win today.

Flight 7 has favorite Southern Cal leading with wins over the Intermountain and Eastern tied at second, but still needs a win to wrap it up and avoid Intermountain catching them.

Flight 8 has upset minded Northern at 2-0 but having to play favorite Southern today to decide it.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 3.0 Women status after day 1

Here is how the flights look for the 18+ 3.0 Women after day 1.  Also see how the ratings predicted the day 1 matches.

Flight 1 is the 5 team flight so still has several matches to play but Florida and Midwest are in control both at 2-0 surprising favorite Southern.

Flight 2 has Caribbean being a sleeper (as they often are) leading at 2-0 but needing to win as a loss would open the door for the Missouri Valley vs New England winner to sneak by.

Flight 3 has Intermountain leading but still needing a win to wrap it up as early favorite Eastern could catch them.

Flight 4 only played once match each on day 1, and PNW and favorite NorCal lead at 1-0 but a lot of tennis still to be played.

2015 USTA League Nationals 18 & over 3.0 Men status after day 1

After day 1, here is how things stand in the 18+ 3.0 Men's flights.  See how the ratings predicted day 1 matches as well.

Flight 5 will be decided by the Intermountain vs favorite Northern Cal match today, both 2-0.  The winner advances to the semis.

Flight 6 has an important match between Pacific Northwest and co-favorite Midwest.  If PNW wins, they win the flight.  If Midwest wins they have the upper hand but if co-favorite Eastern beats Southern Cal, they could catch them and win a 3-way tie at 2-1.

Flight 7 appears to be decided with sleeper Caribbean 2-0, and even if they lose, they have wins over the other teams that could tie them at 2-1 so it appears wrapped up.

Flight 8 has favorite Middle States in control and needing just one court in their match with Southwest to wrap it up.

Friday, October 2, 2015

Initial results of picking matches at the 2015 USTA League Men's 18 & over 5.0+ Nationals

I didn't post predictions for the 18+ 5.0+ Men's Nationals first few matches, but here is how the predictions would have gone.  You can see the preview I did do here.

Flight 4

Texas over Florida - Missed, upset 2-1.
Missouri Valley over Southwest - Correct, won 2-1.
Southern California over Florida - Correct, won 2-1.

Flight 5

Southern over Mid-Atlantic - Correct, won 3-0.
Intermountain over Caribbean - Correct, won 2-1.
Intermountain over Eastern - Correct, won 3-0.

Flight 6

Midwest over New England - Correct, won 2-1.
Northern California over Middle States - Correct, won 3-0.
Northern California over Pacific Northwest - Missed, upset 3-0.


The predictions went 7-2 here.

Initial results of picking matches at the 2015 USTA League Women's 18 & over 5.0+ Nationals

I didn't post predictions for the 18+ 5.0+ Women's Nationals first few matches, but here is how the predictions would have gone.  You can see the preview I did do here.

Flight 1

Southwest over Mid-Atlantic - Correct, won 2-1.
Eastern over Florida - Correct, won 2-1.
Northern California over Mid-Atlantic - Missed, upset 2-1.

Flight 2

Missouri Valley over New England - Missed, upset 2-1.
Southern California over Pacific Northwest - Correct, won 2-1.
PNW over Middle States - Missed, upset 2-1.

Flight 3

Intermountain over Texas - Missed, upset 2-1.
Southern over Midwest - Correct, won 2-1.


Lots of close matches!  The predictions 4-4 here, each miss being just 2-1.

Initial results of picking matches at the 2015 USTA League Women's 18 & over 4.0 Nationals

I didn't post predictions for the 18+ 4.0 Women's Nationals first few matches, but here is how the predictions would have gone.  You can see the preview I did do here.

Flight 1

Northern California over Texas - Correct, won 4-1.
Intermountain over Caribbean - Correct, won 3-2.
Northern California over Middle States - Correct, won 4-1.

Flight 2

New England over Pacific Northwest - Missed, upset 4-1.
Southwest over Hawaii - Correct, won 3-2.

Flight 3

Southern California over Florida - Missed, upset 3-2.
Eastern over Missouri Valley - Correct, won 3-2.

Flight 4

Southern over Mid-Atlantic - Missed, upset 3-2.
Midwest over Northern - Correct, won 5-0.


The predictions 6-3 here, two of the misses being 3-2.

Initial results of picking matches at the 2015 USTA League Men's 18 & over 4.0 Nationals

I didn't post predictions for the 18+ 4.0 Men's Nationals first few matches, but here is how the predictions would have gone.  You can see the preview I did do here.

Flight 5

Texas over Florida - Correct, won 3-2.
Midwest over Middle States - Missed, upset 3-2.

Flight 6

New England over Caribbean - Correct, won 3-2.
Southwest over Pacific Northwest - Correct, won 5-0.

Flight 7

Missouri Valley over Intermountain - Missed, upset 4-1.
Southern California over Eastern - Correct, won 5-0.

Flight 8

Southern over Mid-Atlantic - Missed, upset 3-2.
Northern California over Northern - Missed, upset 3-2.


The predictions only went 4-4 here with three of the upsets being 3-2.

Initial results of picking matches at the 2015 USTA League Women's 18 & over 3.0 Nationals

I wrote yesterday about how my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings would predict the first few matches of the 18+ 3.0 Women Nationals.  The matches are complete and here is how things played out.

Flight 1

Midwest over Hawaii - Correct, Midwest winning 3-2.
Southern over Middle States - Correct, Southern winning 4-1.
Florida over Hawaii -Correct Florida winning 5-0.

Flight 2

Missouri Valley over Caribbean - Missed, Caribbean won 3-2.
Mid-Atlantic over New England - Missed, New England won 4-1.

Flight 3

Intermountain over Northern - Correct, Intermountain won 4-1.
Eastern over Southwest - Correct, Intermountain won 4-1.

Flight 4

Texas narrowly over Pacific Northwest - Missed, PNW pulled the upset winning 5-0!
Northern California over Southern California - Correct, NorCal winning 3-2.


The predictions went 6-3, not quite as good as the 3.0 Men, but still a pretty good accuracy.

Initial results of picking matches at the 2015 USTA League Men's 18 & over 3.0 Nationals

I wrote yesterday about how my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings would predict the first few matches of the 18+ 3.0 Men Nationals.  The matches are complete and here is how things played out.

Flight 5

Mid-Atlantic narrowly over Intermountain - Missed, Intermountain pulled the slight upset 3-2.
Northern California over Missouri Valley - Correct, NorCal won 3-2.

Flight 6

Eastern over Pacific Northwest - Missed, PNW pulled 3-2 upset.
Midwest over Southern California - Correct, Midwest won 4-1.

Flight 7

Texas narrowly over Southern - Correct, Texas won 4-1.
Caribbean over Florida - Correct, Caribbean won 4-1.

Flight 8

Middle States over New England - Correct, Middle States won 4-1.
Southwest narrowly over Northern - Correct, Southwest won 4-1.


The matches appear to have been fairly competitive with no 5-0 wins.  And the average ratings correctly predicted 6 of 8 and the two misses were both just 3-2 so still close.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Picking matches at the 2015 USTA League Men's 18 & over 3.0 Nationals

I previewed the 18 & over 3.0 Men leading up to the Nationals starting Friday, but here are how my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say the first round of matches may go.  Specifically, this is looking at the average rating for the top-8 rostered players on each team.

It goes without saying that the team with the higher top-8 average does not always win.  The top-8 players may not play in a match, and even if they do, the specific match-ups on the court with the line-ups used and how players do on that given day will determine who wins and loses.  But comparing the teams using the top-8 average is fun, so here goes.

Flight 5

Mid-Atlantic narrowly over Intermountain
Northern California over Missouri Valley

Flight 6

Eastern over Pacific Northwest
Midwest over Southern California

Flight 7

Texas narrowly over Southern
Caribbean over Florida

Flight 8

Middle States over New England
Southwest narrowly over Northern

But don't be surprised if there isn't an upset or two.  I'll check back in to report as the weekend goes along.

Picking matches at the 2015 USTA League Women's 18 & over 3.0 Nationals

I previewed the 18 & over 3.0 Women leading up to the Nationals starting Friday, but here are how my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say the first round of matches may go.  Specifically, this is looking at the average rating for the top-8 rostered players on each team.

It goes without saying that the team with the higher top-8 average does not always win.  The top-8 players may not play in a match, and even if they do, the specific match-ups on the court with the line-ups used and how players do on that given day will determine who wins and loses.  But comparing the teams using the top-8 average is fun, so here goes.

Flight 1

Midwest over Hawaii
Southern over Middle States
Florida over Hawaii

Flight 2

Missouri Valley over Caribbean
Mid-Atlantic over New England

Flight 3

Intermountain over Northern
Eastern over Southwest

Flight 4

Texas narrowly over Pacific Northwest
Northern California over Southern California.

But don't be surprised if there isn't an upset or two.  I'll check back in to report as the weekend goes along.