Monday, December 31, 2012

How did the Bears and Giants rank in the top-10 but not make the playoffs?

We all know that a record doesn't tell you everything about a team, and looking at my week 17 ratings and rankings and comparing to who made the playoffs, this is evident on several levels.

First, Indianapolis is ranked #21 but is one of the 12 teams making the playoffs.  This is due to  2 things, a very weak schedule based in part on having the worst record last year, and winning a lot of close games.  Their performance chart is telling.  You can see how their wins are mostly just above their rating while several of their losses are well below their rating.

But what about the teams that were "left out"?

Chicago is ranked #7 by my computer but lost the wildcard tie-breaker to Minnesota on division record.  To be fair, my computer has Minnesota #8 just over 0.1 points behind, and Chicago is not ahead of any other non-division winner in the NFC.  Their chart shows a clear decline in the second  half of their year where they went 5-8, although all those losses were to playoff teams.  Their rating is fairly high because of this tough schedule (#7) with only 3 playoff teams having a tougher schedule.

The Giants are ranked #10 by my computer but were a game out of the tie-breaker with Chicago and Minnesota.  Had they won one more game, they would have had the conference record advantage over both of them and been in the playoffs.  But losing 3 of their last 5 hurt them, although they too were to playoff teams.  And losing early in the year to 3 teams that didn't make the playoffs didn't help.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Early 2012/13 NFL Playoffs Superbowl Odds

We now know who will be in the playoffs and who will play who.  With that, it is time to run through the scenarios of how the playoffs could play out, and what that means to the chances of each team making it to and winning the Superbowl.

New England0.3230.174
San Francisco0.2920.148
Green Bay0.1300.064

While Denver is not the highest rated team by my computer, they do have home field advantage through the playoffs and thus have the edge over the Patriots to get to the Superbowl as well as win it.  The Patriots are the 2nd pick though and not that far behind.

In the NFC, the 49ers and Falcons are nearly equals to both get to and win the Superbowl, the edge going to the 49ers because of Atlanta's slide the past few weeks of the season.  The highest rated team in the NFC is Seattle and because they have to play an extra round as compared with the 1st four mentioned, and thus the slot in at the 5th pick.

The chances fall out after that somewhat as expected with the Colts have the worst chance at just under 5% of making it to the Superbowl and less than 2% of winning.

NFL Playoff Team Performance Charts

With the completion of the NFL regular season, it is interesting to take a look at the performance charts for the playoff teams to see how they are entering the post-season.  Here they are with a few comments.

The Patriot's rating was remarkably consistent, even if they had a few up and down games.

Denver started the season a bit lower, and started 2-3, but then went on  a streak and have been in the top-4 the last 8 weeks.

Seattle benefited from a win over Green Bay early, but finished the season very strong and moving up to #3.

The 49ers have had the lowest lows of any of the top-4 teams, but also some pretty high highs.

The Packers have been a bit up and down, but finished pretty strong until the loss to the Vikings who they get to play again.

Atlanta was strong early, but wasn't as good late, some questions entering the post-season.

Minnesota was the last team in, but finished strong in their last 4 to get there.

Houston is a bit like Atlanta, not finishing strong at all.

Washington had a worse start than Denver, 3-6, but have had a similar strong finish.

Baltimore has a similar profile to Houston and somewhat Atlanta, not finishing that strong.

Cincinnati also finished strong, just the lone loss to Dallas, to get into the playoffs.

The Colts had a very weak schedule and made the most of it, being #21 in the league but being amongst the 12 teams making the playoffs.  A lot of close wins is what didn't impress the computer.

NFL Week 17 Ratings and Rankings - New England finished #1

The ratings after week 17 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England moves back ahead of Denver based primarily on Denver having to play the worst team in the league while the Patriots got to play now 7-9 Miami.  They are only a half point apart so it really is very close.

Behind them, Seattle stays ahead of San Francisco, despite San Francisco beating them out for the NFC West.  Atlanta falls more with their loss than Green Bay does leaving the Packers at #5 and the Falcons at #6.

It will be no solace to Chicago that they are #7 and ahead of Minnesota at #8 because they lost out on tie-breakers to them.  Houston's losing streak dropped them all the way to #9.

The Giants are another team that missed the playoffs but is ranked ahead of teams that made it.  The worst team in the playoffs?  The Colts way down at #21.

We are now on to the playoffs.  Look for more posts shortly.

1New England88.52312-480.320+1, +0.357
2Denver88.08113-379.177-1, -0.169
3Seattle87.65011-581.924+0, -0.056
4San Francisco87.09911-4-182.150+0, +0.050
5Green Bay85.89611-581.290+1, -0.274
6Atlanta84.95813-379.527-1, -1.216
7Chicago84.06010-681.363+1, -0.064
8Minnesota83.94610-681.484+1, +0.269
9Houston83.79412-479.902-2, -1.170
10NY Giants83.6029-780.989+0, +0.179
11Washington83.02110-680.597+1, +0.274
12Baltimore82.51910-680.111-1, -0.376
13Cincinnati82.38210-678.799+0, +0.214
14St Louis81.6147-8-182.785+0, +0.136
15Carolina81.5497-980.928+1, +0.627
16New Orleans80.5607-981.131-1, -0.667
17Tampa Bay80.3387-980.695+3, +0.990
18Pittsburgh80.3118-879.178+1, +0.382
19Dallas80.1008-881.347-2, -0.382
20Miami79.7317-980.485-2, -0.357
21Indianapolis79.52511-578.955+2, +1.010
22San Diego78.9387-979.111-1, -0.333
23Arizona78.4915-1182.889-1, -0.221
24Buffalo77.6616-1080.197+2, +0.931
25Detroit77.6354-1281.987+0, -0.145
26NY Jets77.2696-1081.018-2, -0.952
27Cleveland76.3275-1179.939+0, -0.365
28Tennessee75.7006-1080.204+0, +0.503
29Philadelphia73.8264-1281.157+0, -0.405
30Oakland73.2674-1279.700+0, +0.301
31Jacksonville71.3272-1480.526+0, -0.634
32Kansas City70.5822-1480.419+0, +0.208

Sunday, December 23, 2012

NFL Week 16 Ratings and Rankings - Denver the new #1

The ratings after week 16 are now posted and listed below as well.

Denver moves to #1 ahead of New England, and Seattle moves to #3 ahead of the 49ers.

1Denver88.25012-380.022+2, +0.282
2New England88.16611-480.648-1, -0.662
3Seattle87.70610-582.157+2, +1.147
4San Francisco87.04910-4-182.646-2, -1.201
5Atlanta86.17413-279.659+1, +0.303
6Green Bay86.17011-480.981+1, +0.384
7Houston84.96412-379.729-3, -1.683
8Chicago84.1249-681.431+1, +0.928
9Minnesota83.6779-681.377+2, +1.624
10NY Giants83.4238-781.751-2, -1.162
11Baltimore82.89510-579.819+1, +0.951
12Washington82.7479-680.887-2, +0.096
13Cincinnati82.1689-678.862+0, +0.378
14St Louis81.4787-7-182.219+3, +0.933
15New Orleans81.2277-881.329+0, +0.300
16Carolina80.9226-980.856+0, +0.046
17Dallas80.4828-781.083-3, -0.625
18Miami80.0887-879.719+2, +0.214
19Pittsburgh79.9297-879.665-1, -0.412
20Tampa Bay79.3486-980.291-1, -0.900
21San Diego79.2716-979.733+3, +1.013
22Arizona78.7125-1082.518+0, -0.615
23Indianapolis78.51510-578.954+0, -0.055
24NY Jets78.2216-981.001-3, -1.221
25Detroit77.7804-1182.187+0, -0.213
26Buffalo76.7305-1080.692+0, -0.766
27Cleveland76.6925-1079.603+0, -0.118
28Tennessee75.1975-1081.072+0, -0.513
29Philadelphia74.2314-1180.849+0, -0.304
30Oakland72.9664-1179.662+0, +0.110
31Jacksonville71.9612-1380.616+0, +0.200
32Kansas City70.3742-1379.622+0, -0.003

NFC East Playoff Scenarios as of 12/13 2:40pm Pacific

After the early games today, we have a situation where 6 teams could be tied at 9-7 in the NFC, one winning the NFC East and the other 5 vying for the 2 wildcard spots.

First, let's take a look who would win the NFC East.  In this scenario, Dallas beats Washington and the Giants go 1-1 in their last 2 games.  Dallas would win the division on the common opponent tie-breaker over Washington with the Giants having fallen by the wayside on the division record tie-breaker.

That would leave Washington, the Giants, Minnesota, Chicago, and Seattle as the other teams.  Seattle would have to go 0-2, Chicago 1-1, and Minnesota 1-1.

Washington would get the first wildcard, first by beating the Giants on division record, then beating the other 3 teams on conference record.

Then the wildcard tie-breakers are done again, this time with the Giants included again and now the Giants beat the other teams on conference record.

There are certainly many other scenarios, but this one was pretty interesting so thought I'd write it up.  More perhaps later.

Friday, December 21, 2012

What if the NFL used the BCS?

Thankfully the NFL doesn't and we have normal playoffs, but Alex at the Bleacher Report went through the effort the use one human poll, my computer ratings, and three other computers to come up with "BCS" standings for the NFL.  Take a look here.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

NFL Week 15 Projected Records - Atlanta and Houston top the conferences

The projected records after week 15 are now posted and listed below as well.

The top 4 teams are all projected to win out, Denver convincingly, and if this happens, New England will be left out of the first round byes.

Baltimore is expected to win the AFC North, and Indianapolis and now Cincinnati instead of Pittsburgh the wildcards.

The NFC has gotten interesting with the NFC East up for grabs and now a race for the 2 wildcard spots.  Washington is given the edge being projected to finish 10-6 ahead of the Giants and Cowboys both at 9-7.  But those two teams still have a shot at the wildcard given Chicago's fall as they are also projected at 9-7 with Minnesota being there too.  It could come down to which teams are at that record and thus which tie-breakers come into play, but the Giants then Vikings have the better conference record of the group.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
New England12-464.70.031.6
San Francisco11-4-151.635.512.9
Green Bay11-548.343.58.2
NY Giants9-750.640.58.9
St Louis7-8-146.611.741.8
Tampa Bay7-953.814.631.6
New Orleans7-951.922.925.2
NY Jets7-950.629.020.4
San Diego6-1055.929.214.9
Kansas City2-1466.133.20.0

NFL Week 15 Ratings and Rankings - New England hangs on to #1

The ratings after week 15 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England hangs on to #1 despite losing to San Francisco at home, but it is a lot closer now than it was last week.  Denver and Houston swap spots and Atlanta and the Giants swap as well.

Farther back, Minnesota makes a big move up to #11 trying to stay in the playoff hunt and New Orleans also moves up but alas probably too late.

1New England88.82810-481.376+0, -1.321
2San Francisco88.25010-3-181.940+0, +1.169
3Denver87.96811-380.434+1, +1.024
4Houston86.64712-279.717-1, -0.354
5Seattle86.5599-582.150+0, +0.784
6Atlanta85.87112-279.680+2, +1.936
7Green Bay85.78610-481.543+0, +0.738
8NY Giants84.5858-681.639-2, -0.847
9Chicago83.1968-681.264+0, -0.450
10Washington82.6518-681.158+1, +0.799
11Minnesota82.0538-680.842+5, +1.134
12Baltimore81.9449-579.951-2, -1.299
13Cincinnati81.7908-678.563-1, +0.270
14Dallas81.1078-681.323+0, -0.083
15New Orleans80.9276-881.313+8, +1.772
16Carolina80.8765-981.600+5, +1.507
17St Louis80.5456-7-182.359-4, -0.961
18Pittsburgh80.3417-779.713-1, -0.502
19Tampa Bay80.2486-880.276-4, -0.887
20Miami79.8746-880.516-1, +0.311
21NY Jets79.4426-881.615-3, -0.743
22Arizona79.3275-982.453+5, +1.348
23Indianapolis78.5709-579.505+1, -0.503
24San Diego78.2585-979.576-4, -1.279
25Detroit77.9934-1081.913-3, -1.189
26Buffalo77.4965-980.823-1, -0.999
27Cleveland76.8105-978.732-1, -1.403
28Tennessee75.7105-980.691+0, +0.063
29Philadelphia74.5354-1081.113+0, -0.631
30Oakland72.8564-1079.179+1, +0.620
31Jacksonville71.7612-1280.474-1, -0.795
32Kansas City70.3772-1279.750+0, -0.901

Friday, December 14, 2012

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for Mixed Doubles in Northwest Washington

USTA year-end ratings came out a few weeks ago and everyone is now busy forming teams for the 2013 season that begins for some sections and leagues right away in January.

However, in the Pacific Northwest, our 2013 Mixed season is just wrapping up.  As such, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at what players' ratings would be if just their mixed matches were used to calculate their rating.  I've just posted the list for Northwest Washington on the site.  Given that the USTA doesn't include mixed matches in calculating ratings for players that play enough gender specific matches, these mixed ratings may or may not be close to what one's actual dynamic rating is.  But, it does represent a good estimate of what one's mixed exclusive rating might be.

Because the USTA calculates year-end ratings in November and I believe uses matches played through the end of October, the ratings list I've posted is for all play since 11/1 and includes matches played last weekend.  This is effectively a glimpse into what a 2013 mixed exclusive rating might be as of right now.

So, take a look and let me know what you think.

And even though the 2012 year-end ratings are out, I'm still getting requests for and creating Estimated Dynamic NTRP reports.  If you'd still like one, let me know.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

2012/13 College Football Bowl Game Predictions

Here is a summary of my computer's predictions for this years bowl games.  I'll likely do more detailed prediction reports for the bigger games later.

Utah St11.9Toledo
Brigham Young4.6San Diego St
Central Florida2.7.Ball St
Louisiana-Lafayette6.5East Carolina
Washington0.0Boise St
Fresno St11.3.SMU
Western Kentucky6.3Central Michigan
San Jose St9.9Bowling Green
Louisiana-Monroe7.0Ohio U.
Rutgers3.8Virginia Tech
Texas Tech9.9Minnesota
Rice1.6Air Force
West Virginia3.6.Syracuse
Arizona St12.4Navy
Oregon St3.6Texas
TCU2.6Michigan St
Vanderbilt9.9North Carolina St
Southern Cal10.8Georgia Tech
Iowa St4.8Tulsa
Northwestern0.6Mississippi St
Oklahoma St13.8Purdue
South Carolina6.9Michigan
Florida St4.9Northern Illinois
Oregon5.5.Kansas St
Texas A&M2.5.Oklahoma
Arkansas St1.3Kent St
Alabama3.5.Notre Dame

Monday, December 10, 2012

NFL Week 14 Projected Records

The projected records after week 14 are now posted and listed below as well.

No big changes from last week's projections, but perhaps somewhat surprisingly Denver and Houston are projected to get the byes in the AFC despite them both losing to the Patriots this year and New England being #1 in the rankings this week.  This is in large part because they host the 49ers next week while Denver does have to go to Baltimore but then gets Cleveland and Kansas City.

The wildcards in the AFC are projected to be Indianapolis and then one of Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.  The latter two are both projected at 9-7 but the nod presently goes to the Steelers based on the better chance of 9-7 and 10-6, although if they both finish 9-7 and Cincy gets there by beating Pittsburgh, they could have the tie-breaker advantage.

There is presently no drama in the NFC with both Seattle and Chicago being clear of Dallas and Washington and the Giants as well being at 10-6 ahead of them.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
New England12-443.143.112.6
San Francisco11-4-141.112.638.0
Green Bay11-545.519.929.9
NY Giants10-645.518.431.8
NY Jets8-840.115.035.0
St Louis7-8-143.233.515.7
San Diego7-947.119.928.8
Tampa Bay7-943.033.616.1
New Orleans6-1039.937.512.8
Kansas City3-1345.413.241.1

NFL Week 14 Ratings and Rankings - New England Stays #1

The ratings after week 14 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England stays #1 and extends their lead over new #2 San Francisco.  Houston and Denver both drop while Seattle and the Giants move up 2 spots each.

1New England90.14910-381.315+0, +1.229
2San Francisco87.0819-3-181.184+2, +0.330
3Houston87.00111-280.451-1, -1.569
4Denver86.94410-380.072-1, -0.470
5Seattle85.7758-582.061+2, +0.992
6NY Giants85.4328-580.816+2, +0.880
7Green Bay85.0489-481.191-1, -0.024
8Atlanta83.93511-279.028-3, -1.509
9Chicago83.6468-580.944+0, -0.602
10Baltimore83.2439-480.080+0, -0.394
11Washington81.8527-681.219+3, +0.304
12Cincinnati81.5207-679.085+1, -0.639
13St Louis81.5066-6-182.386+2, +0.533
14Dallas81.1907-681.760+2, +0.910
15Tampa Bay81.1356-779.491-4, -1.156
16Minnesota80.9197-680.677+1, +0.725
17Pittsburgh80.8437-679.807-5, -1.398
18NY Jets80.1856-782.056+1, +0.187
19Miami79.5635-881.525+1, -0.249
20San Diego79.5375-879.644+4, +0.682
21Carolina79.3694-981.352+5, +1.153
22Detroit79.1824-981.722+0, +0.194
23New Orleans79.1555-881.227-5, -0.930
24Indianapolis79.0739-479.139-3, -0.122
25Buffalo78.4955-881.029-2, -0.489
26Cleveland78.2135-879.213+1, +0.547
27Arizona77.9794-982.931-2, -0.363
28Tennessee75.6474-981.541+0, -0.201
29Philadelphia75.1664-981.209+0, +1.396
30Jacksonville72.5562-1180.464+0, -0.588
31Oakland72.2363-1080.144+0, -0.432
32Kansas City71.2782-1180.089+0, -1.004

Monday, December 3, 2012

NFL Week 13 Projected Records

The projected records after week 13 are now posted and listed below as well.

Things are getting a bit more interesting.

In the NFC, Green Bay is now projected as the division winner and the NFC East is getting closer with the Giants and Redskins now both projected at 9-7 and Dallas just one game back at 8-8 and the loser of all that won't get a wildcard, those going to Chicago and Seattle.

The AFC is only interesting with Cincinnati chasing Pittsburgh and Indianapolis for the last wildcard, presently falling short in the projections.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
New England12-442.022.727.3
Green Bay11-541.316.532.4
San Francisco10-538.034.715.1
NY Giants9-738.735.813.7
Tampa Bay8-842.332.417.2
St Louis7-837.617.133.0
New Orleans7-939.621.028.9
NY Jets7-937.329.720.3
San Diego6-1042.226.422.8
Kansas City3-1345.220.731.1

NFL Week 13 Ratings and Rankings - New England moves to #1

The ratings after week 13 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England moves to #1 and Denver moves ahead of San Francisco to #3.  Seattle also moves up to #7.

1New England88.9209-381.164+1, +0.401
2Houston88.57011-179.678-1, -0.253
3Denver87.4149-380.882+1, +0.075
4San Francisco86.7518-3-181.433-1, -0.880
5Atlanta85.44411-178.820+1, +0.087
6Green Bay85.0728-481.652+1, -0.004
7Seattle84.7837-582.316+3, +0.752
8NY Giants84.5527-580.985+0, -0.300
9Chicago84.2488-480.501-4, -1.294
10Baltimore83.6379-379.777-1, -0.731
11Tampa Bay82.2916-679.979+0, -0.428
12Pittsburgh82.2417-580.098+2, +1.032
13Cincinnati82.1597-579.291+0, +0.847
14Washington81.5486-681.230-2, +0.160
15St Louis80.9735-6-182.296+3, +0.770
16Dallas80.2806-681.207-1, -0.559
17Minnesota80.1946-680.766-1, -0.491
18New Orleans80.0855-780.813-1, -0.380
19NY Jets79.9985-782.608+1, +0.136
20Miami79.8125-780.870+1, +0.284
21Indianapolis79.1958-479.668+3, +0.479
22Detroit78.9884-881.062-3, -0.889
23Buffalo78.9845-781.287+2, +0.758
24San Diego78.8554-879.933-2, -0.633
25Arizona78.3424-882.139+1, +0.490
26Carolina78.2163-981.582-3, -1.271
27Cleveland77.6664-880.178+0, +0.314
28Tennessee75.8484-881.810+0, -0.233
29Philadelphia73.7703-980.940+1, +0.031
30Jacksonville73.1442-1081.141-1, -0.714
31Oakland72.6683-980.419+0, -0.141
32Kansas City72.2822-1080.404+0, +1.292

Sunday, December 2, 2012

College Football Week 14 Ratings and Rankings - Oregon stays #1 ahead of Alabama

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Oregon stays #1 this week with Alabama and Florida unchanged behind them.  Kansas State moves up 2 spots to #4 moving ahead of Texas A&M and Notre Dame.

Why didn't Alabama move up after their win over Georgia?  Simply put, as rated last week, Alabama was expected to win by more than they did resulting in their rating actually dropping slightly.

The BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings do have Notre Dame on top and they are followed by Florida and Ohio State, and Alabama does move ahead of Oregon to #4.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

1Oregon93.70811-172.868+0, -0.275
2Alabama91.03612-172.287+0, -0.636
3Florida88.74711-175.401+0, -0.541
4Kansas St88.09511-174.068+2, +0.726
5Texas A&M87.73610-273.392-1, -0.657
6Notre Dame87.72512-073.827-1, -0.252
7Georgia86.71011-272.920+0, -0.369
8South Carolina85.91110-273.382+1, -0.457
9Stanford85.57511-276.986-1, -0.844
10Oklahoma85.44310-273.981+1, +0.218
11LSU85.12910-273.698-1, -0.580
12Oregon St84.2459-375.103+0, -0.153
13Ohio State83.13412-069.399+1, -0.220
14Oklahoma St82.8567-573.151-1, -0.881
15Southern Cal82.5787-576.202+0, -0.253
16Utah St82.07710-265.887+0, +0.141
17Florida St80.67111-264.763+0, -0.804
18Baylor80.5977-576.201+5, +0.509
19Texas80.4658-475.754-1, -0.763
20Wisconsin80.3138-572.124+9, +1.936
21Arizona St79.9077-573.756+0, -0.269
22Arizona79.8447-574.752+0, -0.294
23Clemson79.83510-267.413-3, -0.393
24UCLA79.6769-474.599+1, -0.001
25Michigan79.2058-472.371-1, -0.570