Saturday, January 21, 2012

Baltimore at New England 2012 Playoff Preview - New England to win, Baltimore to cover but it is close

Baltimore plays at New England on 1/22 in the AFC Championship.

Baltimore is ranked #5 by the computer with a 13-4 record and a rating of 85.745 against a schedule strength of 80.597. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent except in their losses, their worst game being at San Diego and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 8-8-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-10-1 picking their games against the spread and 11-6 picking winners in their games.



New England is ranked #1 by the computer with a 14-3 record and a rating of 89.360 against a schedule strength of 80.764. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down but pretty good late, their worst game being against NY Giants and best game being at Philadelphia. They are 10-7 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-11 picking their games against the spread and 13-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees as follows:


2 Baltimore-->Indianapolis-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh-->New_England
2 Baltimore-->San_Diego-->New_England


The spread is New England by 7.5 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 6.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Baltimore +7.5 over *x New England 6.6 0.9 0.707 0.529

But digging deeper, looking at their last 4 games, even with the down game against Miami, New England averages 92.3 ratings points, higher than their 89.4 rating for the year.  With that rating, we'd expect New England to cover as well as win.

Even if we look at Baltimore's last 3, they are a tick up from their season rating at 86.9, but with having to go to New England it is hard to see how one would pick the upset and even taking the 7.5 may be iffy.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Giants at San Francisco 2012 Playoff Preview - San Francisco to win and cover, except ...

The Giants plays at San Francisco on 1/22 in the NFC championship.

New York is ranked #6 by the computer with a 11-7 record and a rating of 85.342 against a schedule strength of 83.010. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down but are up now, their worst game being against Washington and best game being last week at Green Bay. They are 10-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-9-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-11 picking winners in their games.



San Francisco is ranked #4 by the computer with a 14-3 record and a rating of 87.689 against a schedule strength of 80.824. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent, their worst game being against Dallas and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 13-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 13-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams played earlier in the year the 49ers winning 27-20 at home and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:


2 NY_Giants-->Arizona-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Arizona-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Dallas-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Dallas-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Seattle-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Seattle-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Washington-->San_Francisco
2 NY_Giants-->Washington-->San_Francisco


The spread is San Francisco by 2 and the computer agrees picking them by over 5.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xSan Francisco -2.0 over . NY Giants 5.3 3.3 0.677 0.613

But, let's dig deeper.

While San Francisco has been pretty consistent, the Giants have been all over the place, but very good lately.  In their last 4, the Giants average rating is a whopping 97.9 which is better than the 49ers best game hosting Pittsburgh (97.6) and well ahead of the 49ers 87.7 rating and even the average of their best 4 games (94.1).

So if the Giants play at that level, the game would actually be a Giants pick against anything other than the 49ers single best game.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Monday, January 16, 2012

College Basketball Week 11 Ratings and Rankings - Syracuse back to #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Syracuse narrowly moves back to #1 this week, but the big moves is at #3 and #4 with two Big-12 teams jumping up.  Florida also makes a big move to #10.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Syracuse87.75819-070.994+1, +0.620
2Ohio State87.57316-371.260-1, -0.864
3Baylor86.51616-070.914+5, +1.537
4Missouri85.61816-168.921+3, +0.269
5Kansas85.34714-372.967-1, -0.599
6Michigan St84.84915-372.436+0, -0.598
7Kentucky84.83917-169.234-4, -1.645
8Duke83.82215-274.771+2, -0.511
9North Carolina83.01615-370.543-4, -2.626
10Florida82.99214-470.749+9, +1.186
11St Mary's CA82.92815-269.369+3, +0.486
12UNLV82.77614-371.908+0, -0.510
13Kansas St82.55312-472.842-4, -1.966
14Alabama81.96813-472.674+1, -0.169
15Seton Hall81.93515-372.016+5, +0.277
16Creighton81.90616-270.969+7, +0.564
17Indiana81.56115-371.643-6, -2.713
18Virginia81.51214-268.068+9, +0.523
19West Virginia81.28113-573.308+6, +0.256
20Wichita St81.22114-371.383+6, +0.220
21New Mexico81.20114-268.828+9, +0.927
22Wisconsin81.18814-571.551+2, -0.084
23Brigham Young81.17113-469.973+5, +0.517
24California81.11815-469.773-2, -0.385
25Murray St81.08015-068.723-12, -1.760

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Week 19 NFL Ratings and Rankings - New #1 New England


The NFL ratings after week 19 are now posted here and below.

And there are some changes.  With Green Bay's loss and New England's win, New England is the new #1.  Despite their loss, New Orleans remains #2.  San Francisco is a close #4 and the other teams in the conference championship games are #5 and #6.


RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1New England89.36014-380.764+2, +0.616
2New Orleans88.56714-480.583+0, -0.386
3Green Bay88.54715-280.768-2, -1.868
4San Francisco87.68914-380.824+0, +0.496
5Baltimore85.74513-480.597+0, +0.260
6NY Giants85.34211-783.010+3, +1.533
7Pittsburgh85.21912-580.983-1, +0.081
8Philadelphia84.6078-881.996-1, +0.412
9Detroit83.72810-782.465-1, -0.405
10Houston83.51911-780.294+0, -0.244
11Atlanta82.97410-781.528+0, -0.124
12San Diego82.5978-881.426+0, -0.206
13NY Jets82.2598-882.131+1, +0.241
14Seattle82.1087-981.682+2, +0.278
15Miami82.0346-1081.991+0, +0.191
16Chicago81.9478-881.767-3, -0.387
17Dallas81.6498-881.909+0, +0.437
18Cincinnati81.0689-881.152+0, +0.047
19Tennessee80.8739-780.080+0, -0.103
20Arizona80.1678-881.423+2, +0.268
21Denver79.7719-982.348-1, -0.468
22Carolina79.7116-1080.983-1, -0.231
23Oakland79.4058-881.656+0, -0.235
24Buffalo79.1706-1082.468+1, +0.179
25Kansas City78.7567-981.676-1, -0.240
26Washington78.1185-1182.305+0, +0.394
27Minnesota77.1783-1382.024+0, -0.345
28Jacksonville76.9845-1180.936+0, -0.089
29Cleveland76.5084-1281.543+0, +0.072
30St Louis74.0132-1483.456+2, +0.197
31Tampa Bay73.8774-1282.591-1, -0.175
32Indianapolis73.8312-1481.534-1, -0.100

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Houston at Baltimore 2012 Playoff Preview - Baltimore to win, Houston to cover

Houston plays at Baltimore on 1/15 in a divisional playoff game.

Houston is ranked #10 by the computer with a 11-6 record and a rating of 83.763 against a schedule strength of 79.858. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very consistent mid-year but had some down times, their worst game being against Carolina and best game being at Tennessee. They are 11-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-7 picking their games against the spread and 11-6 picking winners in their games.



Baltimore is ranked #5 by the computer with a 12-4 record and a rating of 85.485 against a schedule strength of 80.531. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, their worst game being at San Diego and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 8-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-10-1 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head week 6 Baltimore winning 29-14 and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:


2 Houston-->Cincinnati-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Cincinnati-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Cleveland-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Indianapolis-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Jacksonville-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Pittsburgh-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Baltimore
2 Houston-->Tennessee-->Baltimore


The spread is Baltimore by 8 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 4.7. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Houston +8.0 over *x Baltimore 4.7 3.3 0.639 0.598

But let's dig deeper.

Houston had 5 clear bad games, if we remove those their ratings average is 89.6.  Their problem is that we'd be removing 3 of their last 4 games.  The good news is their last game was their second best of the year.  Houston actually rates better on the road, an 85.7 average.

If we similarly drop Baltimore's 4 losses, their average rating is 90.1, a bit better than Houston's.  At home their rating average is 89.7, better than their road average.

So, it is probably hard to see how Houston has a great shot at the win, but it could be close.  Taking the points certainly looks promising.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

New York Giants at Green Bay 2012 Playoff Preview - Green Bay to win and cover

New York plays at Green Bay on 1/15 in a divisional playoff game.

New York is ranked #9 by the computer with a 10-7 record and a rating of 83.809 against a schedule strength of 82.357. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down, their worst game being against Washington and best game being against Atlanta. They are 9-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-8-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-10 picking winners in their games.



Green Bay is ranked #1 by the computer with a 15-1 record and a rating of 90.415 against a schedule strength of 80.833. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were far more consistent save a couple down games late in the season, their worst game being at Kansas City and best game being at Detroit. They are 11-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 15-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head and are separated by 2 degrees through as follows:


1 NY_Giants-->Green_Bay
2 NY_Giants-->New_Orleans-->Green_Bay
2 NY_Giants-->St_Louis-->Green_Bay


The spread is Green Bay by 7.5 and the computer says it should be more, picking them by 9.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:


*xGreen_Bay             -7.5 over  .            NY_Giants  9.6  2.1 0.803 0.574


But let's dig deeper.

The Giants are clearly not a consistent team.  If they play like their last 3, they are playing quite well.  Their average rating over that span is an impressive 95.8.  And their average in their best 5 games is an even more impressive 96.3.  However, at their worst, they are pretty bad, their worst 5 averaging 69.7.

New Orleans cannot boast such highs or lows.  Their worst 5 average 83.5 and their best 5 average 95.8.  Their last 3 average just 85.0.

So should the average of both teams show up, the computer's pick looks solid.  But based on the best of both teams, the game should be very close, and if the season ending trends hold up, you have to like the Giants.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

2011/2012 College Bowl Games: A final look at how the conferences performed


Here is the final look at how the conferences performed in the 2011/2012 bowl games.  This analysis isn't just looking at win/loss record, but looks at how the conferences should have done based on each game.

The rationale for this is that the actual record alone doesn't tell the whole story.  If a conference is having a down year and/or gets some matchups that aren't favorable, you'd expect a poor record so even a 0.500 record may be an indication the conference did well or at least better than expected.  Thus comparing the actual with expected record is useful, as is looking at how a conference does against the spread, as that tells you if the teams did better/worse than Vegas and the public bettors expected.

The table below has the totals for 34 bowls (BCS Championship game not included since it was SEC vs SEC) and lists the expected record based on Vegas' individual game picks, the record based on my computer's individual game picks, the record my computer said was most likely for the conference taking into account the chance of winning each game and the possible permutations, and then the actual record and record against the spread.  The list is ordered by Vegas expected record.


ConferenceVegasComputerMost LikelyActualATS
SEC7-07-05-25-24-3
Big-126-27-16-26-26-2
Sun Belt2-11-21-21-21-2
Mtn West3-23-23-22-32-3
ACC4-42-63-52-63-5
Independents1-11-11-11-10-1-1
MAC2-34-13-24-13-2
C-USA2-33-23-24-14-0-1
Big-East2-31-42-33-23-2
WAC1-21-21-20-31-2
B1G3-71-94-64-64-6
Pac-121-63-43-42-52-5


The SEC was supposed to go undefeated but didn't, going 5-2.  That wasn't really unexpected, my computer said that 5-2 was the most likely record.  And the SEC did go 4-3 against the spread so all in all the SEC did about what was expected.

Similarly, the Big-12 was supposed to go 6-2 and did, although they did go 6-2 against the spread so beating expectations there.  My computer had the SEC and Big-12 in a virtual tie for the best conference and the bowl games did nothing to contradict that.

Behind them, the only other conferences expected to do better than 0.500 by Vegas were the Sun Belt and Mountain West, but neither did.  The Sun Belt did what my computer said they would, 1-2, and the Mountain West was a game worse than expected.  These are weaker conferences and did nothing to show that perception wasn't true.

The other major conferences also did about what was expected.  The ACC probably underachieved a bit, Vegas expecting 4-4, but my computer said 2-6/3-5 and they finished 2-6.  They went 3-5 against the spread though so probably a slight underachievement.

The BigTen was expected to be 3-7 by Vegas, the most likely record according to my computer though was 4-6 and they did that.

And the Pac-12 went 2-5, better than Vegas' 1-6, but worse than my computer's 3-4.

So there you have it.  A look at how the conferences really did in the bowl games.

College Basketball Week 10 Ratings and Rankings

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Due to the closeness at the top and a few big wins, there is a swap at the top.  Ohio State thrashed their two opponents and while Syracuse also won two games, they were closer and Ohio State moves to #1. The big mover in the top-10 is Kansas moving to #4 after beating two top-50 teams.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Ohio State88.43715-270.572+1, +0.844
2Syracuse87.13817-070.351-1, -0.918
3Kentucky86.48415-169.286+0, -0.372
4Kansas85.94612-373.562+9, +2.330
5North Carolina85.64214-269.699+1, -0.552
6Michigan St85.44714-271.777+1, +0.107
7Missouri85.34914-167.605-3, -1.009
8Baylor84.97914-069.745-3, -1.338
9Kansas St84.51912-271.956+3, +0.850
10Duke84.33313-274.441-1, -0.409
11Indiana84.27415-170.890-3, -0.508
12UNLV83.28614-271.621+4, -0.036
13Murray St82.84013-069.995+2, -0.728
14St Mary's CA82.44212-269.837-3, -1.308
15Alabama82.13712-372.252+12, +1.552
16Georgetown DC82.09512-271.516-2, -1.495
17Gonzaga82.08913-270.526+5, +0.487
18Michigan82.06112-370.740+20, +2.711
19Florida81.80612-470.609-9, -2.130
20Seton Hall81.65814-271.459+6, +0.930
21St Louis U.81.58712-368.998-3, -0.938
22California81.50313-470.855-1, -0.101
23Creighton81.34213-270.257-4, -0.758
24Wisconsin81.27212-571.074-7, -1.868
25West Virginia81.02512-472.959+15, +1.855

Monday, January 9, 2012

College Football Week 20 and Final 2011/2012 Ratings and Rankings

Here are the week 20 and final college football ratings and rankings.

Alabama moves to #1 swapping places with LSU and Oklahoma State remains #3 but over 6 points back.  According to the computer, the 2 best teams played in the BCS title game and based on the thumping they gave LSU, Alabama is the clear #1.

No real changes elsewhere with just 2 games played since the week 19 ratings.  The full list is on the web-site.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Alabama96.14612-173.309+1, +3.498
2LSU93.99613-174.849-1, -2.550
3Oklahoma St87.46912-173.527+0, +0.020
4Oregon85.55512-270.315+0, -0.245
5Arkansas85.44011-272.006+0, +0.191
6Boise St84.08312-165.853+0, +0.012
7Oklahoma83.40010-373.509+0, +0.043
8Stanford82.54711-269.881+0, -0.069
9Wisconsin82.00611-367.684+0, +0.104
10South Carolina80.69111-270.865+0, +0.078
11Southern Cal79.61010-270.165+0, -0.064
12Georgia79.46110-471.800+0, -0.095
13Texas A&M79.1377-673.163+0, +0.054
14Baylor79.00710-371.933+0, +0.033
15Michigan78.79211-268.508+0, +0.034
16Houston78.52113-162.654+0, -0.042
17Missouri78.0008-571.628+0, +0.042
18TCU77.95111-264.542+0, -0.005
19Michigan St77.82111-368.478+0, +0.044
20Kansas St76.91310-372.751+0, +0.071
21Texas76.3418-573.226+0, +0.031
22Florida St76.1039-465.445+0, -0.003
23Notre Dame75.5888-570.629+0, -0.000
24Southern Miss75.42512-263.247+0, -0.060
25Nebraska74.8809-470.325+0, +0.051

2012 Superbowl Odds Using Who is Hot

I've been posting odds of each team winning the Superbowl for awhile now, these odds based on the chances of winning each game along with all the potential matchups and the chances of each matchup occurring.  I've also been using the season to date ratings as the input.

Now, my season to date ratings do give a little more weight to recent games, but certainly don't ignore the earlier games, which in some cases, like Denver, should be.  Or in the case of New Orleans where they've gotten very hot late, continuing to include the earlier games can temper how high they get in the ratings.  Or Green Bay built up a huge early lead and tailed off a bit late in the year, but perhaps they aren't really playing the best right now.  Thus, the full season ratings, while pretty accurate, may not be as accurate as we'd like.

Ideally, one looks at the performance chart for a team and identifies trends and selects which games to consider including any mitigating factors.  When this was done for Pittsburgh at Denver, we saw how one could have easily picked the upset.

As a quick way to look at the latter half of the season though, I've run my ratings for the last 8 weeks of the regular season plus the wildcard round of the playoffs.  Doing this, New Orleans moves to #1 and New England to #2 ahead of #3 Green Bay.  The Giants also move up to #6.

So, doing the Superbowl chances using these ratings, we get a slightly different picture.

TeamConferenceSuperbowl
New England0.7080.370
New Orleans0.4030.267
Green Bay0.3500.178
San Francisco0.1650.076
Baltimore0.1900.053
NY Giants0.0810.034
Houston0.0550.011
Denver0.0470.010

Green Bay is no longer the favorite even with their home field advantage, not even in their own conference.  New England is now the far and away favorite as they have the easier road.  But despite their improvement, given that some future/potential opponents also improved, the Giants chances have gone down.  Denver also had improved a bit but now has to go to an improved New England so their chances are down.

The NFC appears to have the stronger teams, 3 of the top 4 chances belonging to that conference and the conference itself having a 56% chance of winning the Superbowl.

For comparison, here is the full season ratings Superbowl chances.

TeamConferenceSuperbowl
Green Bay0.6830.483
New England0.7060.395
New Orleans0.1980.126
San Francisco0.1900.110
Baltimore0.2410.105
Houston0.1230.047
NY Giants0.0870.040
Denver0.0750.020

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Updated 2012 Superbowl Odds

Here is the computer's updated chance of getting to and winning the Superbowl.

Home field advantage is still important, Green Bay and New England still being the favorites.  New Orleans has a better chance than the 49ers though as they won their wildcard game and the computer rates them ahead of San Francisco, even though with home field advantage it picks the 49ers in their head to head matchup.

Denver and the Giants have the worst chances, below 6% of even getting to the Superbowl.

TeamConferenceSuperbowl
Green Bay0.5560.345
New England0.5870.284
New Orleans0.1980.110
San Francisco0.1900.096
Baltimore0.2410.091
Houston0.1230.041
NY Giants0.0560.022
Denver0.0490.011

Update: corrected error 1/9 AM

Denver at New England 2012 Playoffs Preview - Patriots to win, Denver to cover

Denver plays at New England on 1/14 in a divisional playoff game.

Denver is ranked #20 by the computer with a 9-8 record and a rating of 80.239 against a schedule strength of 81.942. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were down early, then up mostly with Tebow, but struggled to finish the regular season, their worst game being at Buffalo and best game being at Oakland. They are 9-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 13-4 picking their games against the spread and 9-8 picking winners in their games.



New England is ranked #3 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 88.744 against a schedule strength of 80.837. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they did have a few ups and downs, their worst game being against the Giants and best game being at Philadelphia. They are 9-7 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-10 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams played earlier in the year, New England wining, and are separated by 2 degrees as follows:


2 Denver-->Buffalo-->New_England
2 Denver-->Buffalo-->New_England
2 Denver-->Kansas_City-->New_England
2 Denver-->Kansas_City-->New_England
2 Denver-->Miami-->New_England
2 Denver-->Miami-->New_England
2 Denver-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Denver-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 Denver-->Oakland-->New_England
2 Denver-->Oakland-->New_England
2 Denver-->San_Diego-->New_England
2 Denver-->San_Diego-->New_England


The spread is New England by 14 and the computer agrees but by not quite that much picking the Patriots by 11.5. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Denver +14.0 over *x New England 11.5 2.5 0.824 0.580

But again, digging deeper.  It seems like one of two Denver teams shows up with Tebow.  In the 8 wins over their last 12, the average rating is 87.7 with a high of 93.4.  Over those 12, on the road they average 84.7 and at home just 78.2.  In the 3 road wins the average is 85.5.

New England was down a bit with their back to back losses, but in the 8 games since has averaged 91.5.  Interestingly, they've done better on the road with a 95.1 average vs 88.0 at home.

Based on this, if the good Denver shows up (87.7) and the late season home Patriots show up (88.0), the game could be close.  It would be hard to outright pick and upset though.  14 points is certainly attractive though unless you think the bad Denver is going to show up (70.9).

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Week 18 NFL Ratings and Rankings - New Orleans creeps closer

The NFL ratings after week 18 are now posted here and below.

With their win, the Saints move into the #2 spot continuing their strong finish to the season.  The Giants also made a move up into the top-10 based on their big win.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Green Bay90.41515-180.833+0, +0.024
2New Orleans88.95314-380.182+1, +0.435
3New England88.74413-380.837-1, +0.217
4San Francisco87.19313-380.269+0, -0.135
5Baltimore85.48512-480.531+1, -0.270
6Pittsburgh85.13812-580.903-1, -0.924
7Philadelphia84.1958-881.579+2, +0.177
8Detroit84.13310-782.860-1, -0.444
9NY Giants83.80910-782.357+3, +1.196
10Houston83.76311-679.858+0, +0.556
11Atlanta83.09810-781.699-3, -0.964
12San Diego82.8038-881.644-1, +0.087
13Chicago82.3348-882.181+0, -0.034
14NY Jets82.0188-881.896+2, +0.257
15Miami81.8436-1081.770+2, +0.268
16Seattle81.8307-981.392-1, -0.116
17Dallas81.2128-881.498+2, +0.231
18Cincinnati81.0219-881.094-4, -0.956
19Tennessee80.9769-780.181-1, -0.086
20Denver80.2399-881.942+2, +0.704
21Carolina79.9426-1081.248-1, -0.097
22Arizona79.8998-881.135-1, -0.095
23Oakland79.6408-881.892+0, +0.145
24Kansas City78.9967-981.902+0, +0.093
25Buffalo78.9916-1082.239+0, +0.221
26Washington77.7245-1181.890+1, +0.226
27Minnesota77.5233-1382.444-1, -0.006
28Jacksonville77.0735-1181.018+0, -0.124
29Cleveland76.4364-1281.453+0, -0.248
30Tampa Bay74.0524-1282.846+0, -0.096
31Indianapolis73.9312-1481.593+0, -0.118
32St Louis73.8162-1483.265+0, -0.093

New Orleans at San Francisco 2012 Playoff Preview - 49ers in the upset, but deeper analysis may say otherwise

New Orleans plays at San Francisco on 1/14 in a divisional playoff game.

New Orleans is ranked #2 by the computer with a 14-3 record and a rating of 88.953 against a schedule strength of 80.182. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were consistent and improving, but for a few games, their worst game being at St Louis and best game being against the Giants. They are 13-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-12 picking their games against the spread and 13-4 picking winners in their games.



San Francisco is ranked #4 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 87.193 against a schedule strength of 80.269. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were more consistent but still had a few down games, their worst game being against Dallas and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 12-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-6-1 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through ? as follows:


2 New_Orleans-->Detroit-->San_Francisco
2 New_Orleans-->NY_Giants-->San_Francisco
2 New_Orleans-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 New_Orleans-->St_Louis-->San_Francisco
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->San_Francisco
2 New_Orleans-->Tampa_Bay-->San_Francisco


The spread is New Orleans by 4 and the computer disagrees picking the 49ers by 1.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xSan Francisco +4.0 over . New Orleans 1.2 5.2 0.540 0.663

Having said that, as I explained in the Denver vs Pittsburgh analysis, one could have predicted a Denver upset by digger deeper.  What can be said about this game?

At their best, against the Giants, New Orleans rated 99.2 points.  The 49ers best against Pittsburgh was 97.5, so a slight advantage to the Saints.

At their worst, against St. Louis, New Orleans rated 66.2 points.  The 49ers worst against Dallas was 74.4, a big advantage to the 49ers.

But how are they playing now?  Over their last 7 weeks since their bye, the Saints are averaging a 95.5 rating and this pulled them up from #9 their bye week to a very close #2.  Their low during that period on the road at Tennessee was 89.4.

The 49ers have been fairly consistent although they dipped slightly at the end of the year with the 2 losses, although those losses weren't as bad as the Dallas loss early in the season.  Their average over their last 7 is just 86.9 and their best result that helps pull the average up that high was a 97.5 over Pittsburgh with an injured QB.  But if we given them the benefit of the doubt and go back 9 games the average is only pulled up to 87.2.  So big advantage to the Saints.

What about home vs road?  New Orleans road average is 83.8, their 3 losses all being on the road.  And only 2 of their games in this 7 game streak have been on the road.  In their last 3 road games, their average is 90.9.

At home, the 49ers average 88.8, over their last 4 it is 91.9, the early season Dallas game being the one pulling the overall average down.  This seems to discount some of the Saints late season surge as being due to some home cooking and making the game seem pretty close again.

So, the computer does think the Saints are the better team rating them higher based on the entire season, but likes the 49ers at home a bit.  Even if you factor in the Saints strong finish, one can see how they can win but on the road the 4 points may be enticing for a fan of the 49ers.

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Should we have seen the Denver upset over Pittsburgh coming?

So Denver just beat Pittsburgh 29-23 in overtime.  Should we have seen it coming?

First, let me be clear, my computer did not pick the upset.  It did pick Denver plus the points, but it bases its picks on the entire season of games and based on that it said Pittsburgh should win by 3.5.  However, the point of the computer isn't to just blindly take the picks as gospel, but to use it as an important source of data along with other factors.

So, what are the other factors?  A key one I always include in the previews is a performance chart.  As a reminder, here was Denver's.



We can see a tale of different Denver teams.  Early, with Orton, they weren't that good.  They were better with Tebow, a different team, particularly in the 6 game streak, but did have 4 poor games.

One can easily make the case that the first 5 games with Orton shouldn't be included as they aren't reflective of the current Denver team.  Looking at their average over the last 11 games, it increases to 80.9, about a point and a half ratings increase.

Then, not to ignore the 4 bad games with Tebow, but the chart shows their results are either up, or down, not usually something in between.  So if you assume you are going to get the good Denver/Tebow, one could look at just those 7 games.  The average in those is an astounding 87.4.

Now, let's take a look at Pittsburgh.



They too had some up and down results, although they didn't have a major change like Denver did with their quarterback and offensive system change.  So it is harder to argue that any games should be dropped.  Further, they finished down a bit due to Rothlisberger's injury and that was probably reflective of the team that played today.  So, sticking with their 86.1 rating probably makes sense.

So, if you expected the "good" Denver to show up, Denver was the better team, 87.4 to 86.1.  Add in home field advantage and they were nearly a 4 point pick.

So, perhaps we should have seen the upset coming.  Certainly the computer's analysis and charts could help get there.

Look for the previews for the upcoming playoff games late in the week.  Or subscribe to receive them right away.

2012 BCS Championship Game Preview - LSU to win and beat the spread

The Allstate BCS Championship Bowl will take place on 1/9 pitting LSU against Alabama. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

LSU is ranked #1 by the computer with a 13-0 record and a rating of 96.546 against a schedule strength of 72.941. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very consistent all year, their worst game being against Northwestern State and best game being against Arkansas. They are 5-1-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-0-1 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



Alabama is ranked #2 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 92.648 against a schedule strength of 71.733. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were also fairly consistent, their worst game being against North Texas and best game being against Arkansas. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-1 picking their games against the spread and 6-1 picking winners in their games.



Being from the same division of the same conference, the teams are very connected having played head to head and separated by 2 degrees as follows:


1 LSU-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Arkansas-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Auburn-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Florida-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Mississippi-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Mississippi_St-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Tennessee-->Alabama

LSU won 9-6 on the road in the head to head game.  In the games against common opponents, here is how they did:

OpponentLSUAlabama
Arkansas41-1738-14
Auburn45-10@42-14
Florida41-11@38-10
Mississippi@52-3@52-7
Mississippi State@19-6@24-7
Tennessee@38-737-6

The scores in these games are remarkably similar, LSU having the slight advantage of 3 at home while Alabama had just 2 at home, but of course LSU had to go to Alabama in the head to head game.

The spread was LSU by 1 but is now Alabama by 2, the computer agreeing with the former picking LSU by 3.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*LSU                   +2.0 over ..              Alabama  3.9  5.9 0.726 0.819

This pick is made based on a weighted average of each teams performance in all their games.  But it is interesting to look at a few other comparisons.

At their best, both against Arkansas, LSU rated 102.3 points and Alabama 102.1 points.  Based on that you'd expect a virtual tie.

At their worst, both in somewhat meaningless games mind you, LSU rated 80.3 and Alabama 82.2.  Based on that, you'd give Alabama the edge.

If you throw out both teams best/worst, LSU averages 95.6 while Alabama falls to 91.4.  This shows a clear advantage to LSU.

However, LSU got an extra game against Georgia and their 2nd best game was that one, so throwing it out too may be fair, but it only drops them to 95.0.   LSU is definitely stronger at the top supporting the computer's pick of LSU by nearly 4.


Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.
cfa11.gms:Alabama NL at Mississippi_St 24-7 on 12-Nov-11
cfa07.gms:LSU NL at Tennessee 38-7 on 15-Oct-11
cfa08.gms:Tennessee NL at Alabama 6-37 on 22-Oct-11

2012 GoDaddy.com Bowl Preview - Northern Illinois in the upset

The GoDaddy.com Bowl will take place on 1/8 pitting Arkansas State against Northern Illinois. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Arkansas State is ranked #61 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 67.654 against a schedule strength of 57.868. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent with gradual improvement, their worst game being at Illinois and best game being against Florida Int'l. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 8-0 picking winners in their games.



Northern Illinois is ranked #51 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 69.414 against a schedule strength of 63.150. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down, their worst game being at Central Michigan and best game being against Western Michigan. They are 1-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 3 degrees as follows:


3 Arkansas_St-->Illinois-->Western_Michigan-->Northern_Illinois
3 Arkansas_St-->Illinois-->Wisconsin-->Northern_Illinois
3 Arkansas_St-->Louisiana-Lafayette-->Kent_St-->Northern_Illinois


The spread is Arkansas State by 1 and the computer disagrees picking Northern Illinois by 1.8. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Northern Illinois +1.0 over . Arkansas State 1.8 2.8 0.574 0.615

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.