Monday, October 31, 2011

NFL projected records after week 8

There are some changes in the projected playoff picture.  See the full list of projections here.  And new, see a summary of the projected playoff teams by week.

In the AFC there are 5 teams projected to finish 11-5 and there just aren't enough spots for all of them.  Three of the teams are from the AFC North but with Buffalo also being projected at 11-5 and a good shot at 12-4, only two of the AFC North teams get in and those are Cincinnati and Pittsburgh with Cincinnati getting the nod for the division based on a better chance at 12-4.

The AFC West is also interesting with San Diego, Denver, and Oakland all projected at 8-8.  Oakland gets the nod here based on the best chance of going 9-7 instead.

The NFC is simpler with the only drama in the NFC East where the Eagles tie with Dallas at 9-7 but have the better chance of 10-6 and hold the current tie-breaker with their win.

Week 8 NFL Ratings Posted - Green Bay remains #1

The NFL ratings after week 8 are now posted here and below.

Green Bay stays #1 and the 49ers stay #2 while Detroit and Buffalo take advantage of the Patriots loss to move to #3 and #4.

In the fight for the worst team, St. Louis moves out of the "lead" leaving it to the Colts.

The computer went a very good 10-3 against the spread overall but went a good 2-1 in best picks.  See prediction performance here.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Green Bay91.9817-080.662+0, -0.566
2San Francisco89.4786-181.445+0, -0.491
3Detroit87.5496-282.521+2, +0.327
4Buffalo87.2075-281.920+2, +1.468
5New England86.8365-282.008-2, -2.143
6Baltimore85.1135-278.972+1, -0.519
7Cincinnati85.1105-279.588+4, +1.498
8Chicago84.7064-382.979+0, -0.726
9Pittsburgh84.3726-279.524+4, +1.385
10Atlanta84.3164-384.030+0, -0.118
11Philadelphia84.2863-482.607+7, +3.549
12New Orleans83.8585-380.935-8, -3.784
13Houston83.3915-379.450-1, -0.203
14Dallas82.4023-483.542-5, -2.395
15NY Jets81.7264-380.488-1, -0.817
16Tampa Bay81.3494-382.117-1, -0.671
17Kansas City81.2364-381.714+2, +0.625
18San Diego81.1434-380.554-2, -0.496
19Oakland81.0414-381.381-2, -0.272
20Tennessee80.0744-378.589+0, +0.430
21NY Giants79.9245-278.053+1, +0.806
22Minnesota79.6472-682.716+1, +0.955
23Carolina78.1562-681.104-2, -1.431
24Washington78.0043-480.643+2, +0.451
25Seattle77.1852-582.435-1, -0.725
26Denver77.0342-582.438-1, -0.775
27Jacksonville76.7122-682.725+0, -0.634
28Arizona75.6091-680.772+1, +1.449
29Cleveland75.2343-479.189-1, +0.817
30St Louis73.9171-683.224+2, +4.777
31Miami73.1650-781.184-1, +0.418
32Indianapolis71.2680-882.578-1, -0.596

Breaking News! Stanford could get a raw deal from the BCS too!

I written some BCS observations as well as a detailed write-up on why Boise State could be left out of the championship game even if 3 teams ahead of them lose in the past few day, but after some comments on the latter I did more analysis and believe that Stanford could suffer the same fate as Boise State.

A lot of the analysis and scenario is the same as for Boise State.  If Stanford wins out, it would include wins over Oregon, Notre Dame, and likely Arizona State, so it seems logical that with one of LSU/Alabama losing by definition, if Oklahoma State were also to lose that Stanford would move to #2 in the BCS and play the LSU/Alabama winner in the championship game.  But will that actually happen?

Let's take a look at how things stand today.  Stanford is #4 in the BCS but well back of the top-3 and barely ahead of Boise State.  This #4 is made up of a #3 and #4 ranking in the polls, and an average of #6 in the computers.  They are lower in the computers because their schedule strength to date is weaker than the competition, but with Oregon, Notre Dame, and a potential Pac-12 championship against Arizona State to come, that should be at least somewhat improved.  But they should certainly be #2 in both polls should they win out, even if a few voters have Boise State ahead or even a one-loss LSU/Alabama loser or Oklahoma ahead.

So if they are #2 in both polls, you'd think they would safely be the #2 team in the BCS.  But what could thwart that would be a too low a ranking by the computers coupled with the #3 team in the polls being very close.  How low could they be in the computers?

Today they are a 4, 5, 5, 6, 8, and 8 and #6 overall.  With their tougher schedule at the end of the season and Boise's easy schedule, they'll likely get to #5 ahead of Boise.  But they are already behind Oklahoma overall who is #5 and are behind them in 3 of the 6 computers but also behind Arkansas and K-State in 2.  If OU wins out, they are likely to stay ahead of Stanford in those 3 and could potentially move ahead in another because their remaining schedule is stronger than Stanford's.  And just like they could be behind OU, they could be behind the LSU/Alabama loser as well as potentially Oklahoma State if they lost.  That means they could be #4 or #5 in the computers.

To test this out, I ran a few scenarios.

First, the Colley Matrix, which has a published algorithm, kudos to it, has a feature on the web-site to add games to do what-if analysis.  Adding Stanford over Oregon, OU over Oklahoma, and Alabama over LSU results in Stanford being #4 behind Alabama, OU, and Oklahoma State, BSU at #5 and LSU #6.  And adding Boise State over TCU drops Stanford to #5.  Now each team has other games to play, but with those key game results Stanford is #4 or #5.

Second, I have a BCS "compatible" algorithm (doesn't use MOV) that has Stanford #8 just like 2 of the computers.  So it is similar to those algorithms, and if I run the algorithm with Stanford winning out including beating ASU in the Pac-12 championship, OU winning out, Alabama winning out, and Boise State winning out.  In this scenario, the top-5 are Alabama, OU, Oklahoma State, LSU, and Stanford.

So, Stanford is conceivably #5 in 3 of the computers.  Even if they get to #2 in the other 3, their average could be 4th with a computer percentage around 0.870.  A #2 OU could have a percentage around 0.940 if they are #2 in 3 of the computers.  That would leave Stanford a 0.07 gap to make up in the polls.

If Alabama is the unanimous #1 and Stanford a unanimous #2, Stanford's poll percentage is at best 0.960 in each poll.  An OU with a unanimous #3 would be at 0.920.  But we know it won't be that clean, especially with Boise State taking a few first, second, and third place votes.  If the gap between Stanford and OU gets down to 0.035, say Stanford at 0.950 and OU at 0.915, we get the following equations.

Stanford BCS rating = (0.870 + 0.950 + 0.950) / 3 = 0.923
OU BCS rating = (0.940 + 0.915 + 0.915) / 3 = 0.923

A dead heat.  A vote here and there or a few bits in a computer could sway it either way and Stanford could find themselves losing out to a one-loss OU.  It could be Oregon and Nebraska in 2002 all over again.

Will it happen?  Only time will tell, but it sure is fascinating to think about!

LSU at Alabama Preview - Alabama the pick to win

It is very early in the week, but given a game of this magnitude an early preview is in order.

LSU visits Alabama in this years "Game of the Century" this Saturday.  The computer likes both teams having one or the other #1 since week 1 (LSU's win over Oregon got them there early) and both in the top-2 the last 4 weeks and 5 of the last 6.  And the computer has had them rated within 0.5 points the last 4 weeks in a virtual tie so there isn't much to pick between them.  But let's take a deeper look anyway.

As usual, we go to the performance charts to get a visual into how each team has performed.





Their charts are remarkably similar, LSU's win over Oregon being the most impressive and meaningful, but both teams being extremely consistent as shown by how close their individual game ratings are to their current rating.

LSU's schedule is slightly tougher with Oregon rather than Penn State as an out of conference opponent.  Common opponents thus far are:

  • Florida - Alabama won 38-10 in Gainesville and LSU won 41-11 at home.  No real advantage one way or the other.
  • Tennessee - Alabama won 37-6 at home and LSU won 38-7 on the road.  No real advantage here either.
Remarkably while there will be 7 common opponents by the end of the year, there are only 2 so far.

So their ratings are basically the same and their performance against common opponents is basically the same.  So it comes down to how these teams have done against each other in the past and particularly at home vs away:
  • 2010 - LSU won 24-21 at home as a 6.5 point underdog
  • 2009 - Alabama won 24-15 at home as a 7 point favorite
  • 2008 - Alabama won 27-21 on the road as a 3 point favorite
  • 2007 - LSU won 41-34 on the road as a 7 point favorite
  • 2006 - LSU won 28-14 at home as a 17 point favorite
This tells us that the home team usually wins, unless they are a clear underdog.  Since Alabama is at home and the current spread is 4.5 to 5.5 points in their favor the pick would seem to be Alabama which is what the computer predicts.

With respect to the pick against the spread, the teams are in a virtual tie so home field advantage is the deciding factor which isn't enough to match the spread, so LSU will be the pick plus the points.

Why Boise State won't get to the BCS championship game

I wrote up some observations of the week 9 BCS ratings yesterday including some scenarios on who might make it to the championship game.  The latter garnered some good discussion on Twitter centered around what scenario would be required, or if there was one, that would get Boise State in.  I thought it deserved its own analysis so here goes.

The simple view on who gets to the championship game looks at the order of the BCS rankings and handicaps the teams in order.  Using this, assuming no unexpected losses, the LSU/Alabama winner is in the championship game, Oklahoma State is the first in line to meet them, Stanford is next should the Cowboys slip up, and Boise State would be next if both have a loss.  Even though my computer projects all three to finish undefeated, with Oklahoma State still having to play Kansas State, Texas Tech, and OU and Stanford hosting Oregon and going to ASU, the two losses could reasonably happen.

So, is Boise State "in" in that case?  One can make that case, there'd be only two undefeated teams (ok, Houston too) so they should be in right?  That might be the "right" result, but right and wrong doesn't always happen with the BCS.  We have to look at how the BCS, polls, and computers work to get a better idea.

First, it isn't safe to assume that Boise State simply not losing will preserve their position in the BCS.  We already saw Stanford pass them this week, going from 0.02 back to 0.01 ahead, even though it took them three OTs.  This is because the BCS computers, not being able to factor MOV in, can move a team up with a narrow win over a good team or can move a team down even in a win, if the opponent is weak.

Stanford is a perfect example of this as their early schedule wasn't that strong (66.7 by my computer before playing USC) and the computers had them averaging a #9 ranking behind one loss Oklahoma and Arkansas last week before playing USC.  BSU's schedule on the other hand is front loaded, strong enough to date (71.7, on par with Alabama's 71.0, better than Stanford's) but they finish with TCU and four weak teams meaning their schedule could end up around 68.5.  It is having to play these weak teams that could hurt them in the computers.  See Houston with a weak schedule (61.9) being undefeated but an average of 13 in the computers, and not even top-25 in one of them.  BSU's schedule won't get this low, but you get the idea, they could give up a spot or two in the computers.

So what one-loss team might move ahead in the computers?  Oklahoma is already ahead in one computer and no more than 2 spots behind in any other, and if they win out beating Oklahoma State I'd expect they'd be ahead in most if not all of them.  Then the LSU/Alabama loser, particularly if it is Alabama given they'll get to recover playing tough opponents South Carolina and Auburn plus decent opponent Mississippi State, could very well move ahead.  And if Stanford loses it is likely to Oregon so they'd have a chance, but they are a ways back in the computers.

Second, there are pollsters like Craig James that simply refuse to rank BSU high because of their "body of work", and their finishing schedule is not going to convince them otherwise.  It is entirely likely that a one-loss LSU, Alabama, or Oklahoma could at least be close to BSU in the human polls if not ahead because of this.  And if they are even just close, the computers giving the nod to one of them over BSU could move them ahead in the BCS.

For example, BSU is 4th in the computers this week with a 0.870 percentage ahead of OU at #5 and 0.820.  If Oklahoma State and Stanford lose, BSU and OU would move up naturally to #2 and #3, but for the reasons listed above I'd guess OU moves ahead to #2 in most computers leaving OU with a likely 0.960 percentage to BSU at 0.920.  And a one-loss Alabama/LSU could also shake things up so the gap could perhaps be more than 0.04, say at least 0.05.

Given that, BSU would need to make that up in the polls.  Today's polls have OU two spots back, 280 and 120 points and 0.09 and 0.08 percentage respectively, but they have more room to move up and fill the Stanford/Oklahoma State void, and beating Oklahoma State would impress the voters meaning I expect them to be no more than 80 and 40 points back at the worst, or about a 0.02 to 0.03 percentage.  That small gap plus the advantage in the computers puts them in a dead heat for the #2 BCS spot when you do the math.

It would ultimately come down to the poll voters deciding if they are going to vote honestly or if they are going to begin to manipulate the system based on whether they think BSU should be given a chance or not.  You can easily see some voters keeping them behind not just OU but a one-loss LSU/Alabama and perhaps even Oregon as they are ahead of OU today and in this scenario they would have beat Stanford. Some voters could decide to vote them #1 to manipulate things that way, but that is harder to do and less ability to impact as you can only go so high but you can drop them a ways.

In any case, this exact scenario will probably not happen, but it is still interesting to think what will happen if it does.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

College Football Week 9 BCS Observations - Who might make it to the BCS championship game?

The third week of the BCS numbers have been published and like last week, it is time to take a look and see what they can tell us.  And this week, we look forward to who might make it to the championship game.

There are no big surprises this week, Clemson and Kansas State both drop, and Oklahoma moves up.  One surprise given the closeness of their game was Arkansas moving up 3 spots to #7 after a 3 point win at Vanderbilt that could have been a loss.  Vanderbilt isn't a bad team, #42 in my computer's rankings, but the computers not being able to use MOV handcuffs them and most moved Arkansas up.  And with Clemson and K-State losing the polls felt obligated to move them up too.

One big oddity in the computers is that Wisconsin, #20 in the BCS and #17 and #18 in the polls, and among the top-5 just a few weeks ago, is ranked in the top-25 by only one computer.  My computer still has them at #8, not forgetting their 31 point thumping of Nebraska, but again, the BCS computers can't factor that in.  But does anyone believe 5 of the 6 computers are right and Wisconsin isn't a top-25 team?

Yet another case where the computers look off, but in the other direction, ranking a team too high, is Houston.  The polls have them at #14 but four of the computers have them at 8, 8, 11, and 13 while one doesn't have them in the top-25.  My computer has them #22 which seems more accurate to me.

I do have to give credit though as the overall BCS calculations as my computer agrees with the top-5 and in the same order and roughly the same spacing.  Perhaps they should just my computer and skip all the details!

On to the more interesting part, looking at scenarios and who might make it to the championship game.

My computer projects 4 teams to finish undefeated before the conference championship games; Boise State, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Stanford.  Now, two of those teams, Alabama and Stanford would likely have to play South Carolina and Arizona State but even with those games my computer says they finish undefeated.  I think it is safe to say that if these 4 finish that way we would likely have an Alabama vs Oklahoma State championship game.  There is a chance Stanford could overtake the Cowboys for the #2 spot especially with the extra game to impress, but it is unlikely as Oklahoma State has a big lead in the computers and won't give that up if they run the table.

If Oklahoma State loses, Stanford is the obvious choice to step in to play Alabama, but what if Oklahoma State and Stanford both lose?  On the surface, Boise State is the logical choice but could it really happen?  Let's look at some of the specifics to figure that out, the key being what 1-loss team might not fall behind BSU or which one could leap ahead?

If Stanford loses, Boise State would move ahead of them as they are already ahead in the computers the Stanford would drop in the polls too.

If Oklahoma State loses though, they could stay ahead of Boise in the computers as they are well ahead now, but they might fall enough in the polls to compensate for that. But Oklahoma State's loss could very well be to Oklahoma in which case they'd likely move ahead of BSU (they are right behind them now) and it could be very close in the polls.  Further, it is not safe to assume that the Alabama/LSU loser will fall that far and they could stay ahead of Boise.  So it is unlikely in my opinion that Boise makes it to the championship game unless Stanford loses, Oklahoma State loses and it is to someone other than Oklahoma, and the LSU/Alabama game is a blowout.

I do have a "BCS compatible" algorithm in addition to the regular one I publish, and while I don't like its results and it is not a good predictor of games like my regular one is, it is fun to look at scenarios to get a feel for what the BCS computers might do.  If I put in an LSU loss to Alabama, an Oklahoma State loss to OU, all 4 of Alabama, OU, Oklahoma State, and LSU are ahead of Boise State.  This further supports my hypothesis that Boise State is likely out even with things falling their way.

What do you think?  Who is in the title game if Stanford loses and OU beats Oklahoma State?  See the poll to the right and vote.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

College Football Week 9 Season Projections - 4 Undefeated Teams

The number of teams projected to finish undefeated stays at 4 this week with Stanford replacing Clemson on the list.  Boise State has the best chance at 88% and Stanford the worst at 61.5%.

After Stanford's win over USC, they are past that hurdle but also improved their rating a bit while their toughest future foe, Oregon, had their rating drop a bit.  Despite Alabama dropping to #2, they will still be the pick to win over LSU since the game is at home.  Oklahoma State has some tough opponents, but both Kansas State and Oklahoma visit Stillwater.  Boise State has TCU in 2 weeks but they visit Boise.

Should LSU beat Alabama, they'd immediately jump into the projected undefeated category, and Houston has a good chance of finishing unblemished.

Note that these projections do not include any championship games so some teams may have a lower chance of going into their bowl game undefeated.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Boise St12-088.00.011.6
Oklahoma St12-073.20.025.2
Alabama12-063.50.035.7
Stanford12-061.50.035.1
Southern Miss11-176.90.021.4
LSU11-164.634.50.9
Houston11-151.331.116.3

College Football Week 9 Ratings and Rankings - LSU to #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  With some formerly undefeated teams losing, there are some changes.

But at the very top, things are somewhat stable as Alabama and LSU stay in the top-2 spots, although they swap places this week.  They are still within half a ratings point so still a virtual tie.  Oklahoma State creeps closer, now just over 2 ratings points back, and Stanford leapfrogs Boise State, although those two teams are also in a virtual tie.

Other teams moving up this week include Oklahoma, Arizona State, and Nebraska, all with good wins.

There are now just 6 undefeated teams, but at least two will lose with Alabama/LSU and Oklahoma State/Kansas State playing in 2 weeks.  Look for the projections shortly to see who is projected to finish the regular season undefeated.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1LSU96.8038-073.632+1, -0.929
2Alabama96.3398-071.025-1, -1.514
3Oklahoma St94.1878-074.925+0, +2.033
4Stanford91.3948-069.862+2, +1.536
5Boise St91.3177-071.667+0, +0.324
6Oregon89.3787-171.413-2, -1.924
7Oklahoma88.5217-173.887+3, +2.114
8Wisconsin84.2866-267.331+0, -2.604
9Arizona St83.9646-271.628+3, +0.181
10Texas A&M83.7365-375.328-3, -4.115
11Arkansas83.0217-169.868-2, -3.682
12Nebraska82.4637-171.375+7, +2.519
13South Carolina82.2697-172.524+5, +1.775
14Georgia82.2166-274.622+1, -0.078
15Missouri81.8814-476.749+12, +3.715
16Southern Cal81.3326-274.722-3, -1.330
17Clemson81.1938-169.667-6, -4.916
18Michigan81.0037-168.241-1, +0.391
19Texas80.2755-273.427+14, +2.983
20Michigan St79.5146-271.055-4, -2.437
21Notre Dame79.4445-372.612+2, +0.415
22Houston78.5958-061.947+14, +1.957
23Kansas St78.5077-171.110-9, -4.045
24Florida St78.2715-365.481+4, +0.143
25Southern Miss78.0537-164.070+10, +1.378

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

NFL projected records after week 7

The projected playoff picture again stays pretty consistent week to week.  See the full list of projections here.  And new, see a summary of the projected playoff teams by week.

As can be seen from the summary, the only change this week is Tampa Bay out and Atlanta in as a wildcard in the NFC.

The AFC still has a few things that could easily change with Baltimore and Cincinnati at 11-5 tying for the division (but Baltimore getting the nod based on already have a win over Cincinnati this year) and Pittsburgh just a game back at 10-6.  Pittsburgh does have a 23% chance of getting to 11-5 and Baltimore and Cincinnati a 25% and 26% chance of falling to 10-6 though, so this could stay very dynamic the rest of the year.

The AFC west is now projected to be a tie at 8-8 between San Diego and Oakland.  Both have a better than 25% of getting to 9-7 though.

The NFC does get a little more interesting this week though as there are 3 teams vying for the 2 wildcards. Atlanta, Detroit, and Chicago are all projected to be 10-6 with Atlanta and Detroit currently getting the nod.  With each team having a win and a loss against the others, this may hinge on the week 10 Detroit/Chicago game.

Week 7 NFL Ratings Posted - Green Bay remains #1

The NFL ratings after week 7 are now posted here and below.

Green Bay stays #1 but the idle 49ers swap spots with the idle Patriots to get to #2.  New Orleans makes a strong move to get the #4 and now struggling Detroit drops to #5.

In the fight for the worst team, the three winless teams are "led" by St. Louis.

Why did the 49ers move ahead of New England when both teams were idle?  The Patriots prior opponents didn't do so well, Miami losing at home to a bad Denver team and Oakland losing very badly to Kansas City and so their rating dropped over a point, while San Francisco's did about what was expected and their rating stayed about where it was.  Now, perhaps the Oakland result is an aberration due to injuries and if so, that will settle out as the season moves on, and the Oakland result for New England will begin to carry less weight as well.

The computer went a so-so 7-5-1 against the spread overall but went a good 2-1 in best picks and 2-0 in locks.  See prediction performance here.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Green Bay92.5477-080.820+0, +1.216
2San Francisco89.9695-182.716+1, -0.020
3New England88.9795-181.463-1, -1.128
4New Orleans87.6425-282.198+3, +1.984
5Detroit87.2225-283.279-1, -1.418
6Buffalo85.7394-282.395+0, -0.015
7Baltimore85.6324-279.209-2, -2.634
8Chicago85.4324-383.735+2, +2.332
9Dallas84.7973-382.567-1, -0.830
10Atlanta84.4344-384.065+9, +3.897
11Cincinnati83.6124-279.524+1, +0.562
12Houston83.5944-380.690+2, +1.585
13Pittsburgh82.9875-279.021+0, +0.445
14NY Jets82.5434-381.351-3, -0.514
15Tampa Bay82.0204-382.751+2, +0.735
16San Diego81.6394-280.230+0, -0.223
17Oakland81.3134-381.527-8, -3.557
18Philadelphia80.7372-481.992+0, +0.106
19Kansas City80.6113-382.078+6, +3.962
20Tennessee79.6443-380.297-5, -2.360
21Carolina79.5872-582.302+5, +3.496
22NY Giants79.1184-277.540-1, -0.448
23Minnesota78.6921-682.947+1, +1.585
24Seattle77.9102-481.847-1, -0.095
25Denver77.8092-481.917-3, -0.583
26Washington77.5533-377.923-6, -2.231
27Jacksonville77.3462-582.664+0, +2.882
28Cleveland74.4173-376.848+1, +0.291
29Arizona74.1601-579.308-1, -0.172
30Miami72.7470-681.497+0, -0.531
31Indianapolis71.8640-782.555+0, +1.278
32St Louis69.1400-683.397+0, -0.909

Sunday, October 23, 2011

College Football Week 8 BCS Observations - Oklahoma State, Stanford, Kansas State, Houston

The latest BCS standings are out after week 8's games, and to no ones surprise LSU and Alabama are at the top.  And I have no complaint with that as my computer has them in a virtual tie at #1 and #2, just in the other order.  And see this for a discussion of the details of the two teams ratings.  But there are still some interesting observations one can make from the latest BCS and specifically the computer rankings that go into them.

Let me preface my comments by saying that I disagree with the BCS mandating that the computers not use margin of victory (MOV) at all.  I believe that a proper system can use MOV to accurately rate a team and not punish too much for playing a weak opponent or two but also not reward running up the score.  The BCS differs apparently and we see some screwy rankings as a result.

The first observation is that it is quite surprising that all but one computer has Oklahoma State #1.  My computer does have them #3, but they are over 5 ratings points back of LSU and Alabama.  As can be seen on their performance chart, they have played a reasonably tough schedule, but the computers should not be factoring in their big MOV in several of their games and only 4 opponents have winning records and one of those is Louisiana-Lafayette which my computer has #100.  The good news is they have to run the gauntlet of Baylor, K-State, Texas Tech, and finish with Oklahoma, so we'll know soon if they deserve what the BCS computers are giving them credit for.




The BCS has Stanford #6 which is the same as my computer, but several computers seem way off in where they have them ranked.  Yes, they have not played the tough part of their schedule yet, but #14 and #21?  This is where not allowing MOV shows its shortcoming as it handicaps a computer to not be able to estimate that a team is very good even though they have played a weak schedule to date.

Kansas State on the other hand, my #14 and BCS #8, is also undefeated against only a slightly tougher schedule, but the BCS computers really like them with an average ranking of 5 after throwing the low of #9 out.  That seems too high, but again they will be tested soon.  Will I be eating my words and admitting the BCS computers had it right or will my #14 be more accurate in a month?

Houston presents a unique set of challenges in determining where they should be.  They are undefeated but against very weak opponents and my computer has them #36.  And they've had a number of close games, 1 point win over Louisiana Tech, 4 point win over UCLA, 7 point win over UTEP, only UTEP at 4-3 with a winning record of those 3, but again the computers not being able to use MOV handicaps them as they can't reflect them struggling in these games.  The result is 2 computers have them in the top-10 at #9, another at #14, and a fourth at #16.  Does ranking Houston in the top-10 pass the smell test?

Let me know what you think, leave a comment.

College Football Week 8 Performance Charts - Alabama and LSU

With Alabama and LSU rated so close, only 0.121 ratings points apart, it is useful to look more closely, and what better way the my computer's performance charts and they appear below.

LSU has played a slightly tougher schedule, an average of 73.901 vs Alabama's 71.089, due mostly to playing Oregon in the first game of the year.  Playing tough opponents is also a more meaningful game according my my algorithm and that is reflected by the green dot being larger.

Each team has been pretty consistent recently, especially the last 3 games each game rating being very close to the current rating, but each of those games not being terribly meaningful as they were against middle of the road opponents.

Alabama has also played a few weaker opponents in Kent State and North Texas, so perhaps LSU has been tested slightly more, but they play in Alabama so the computer is currently picking Alabama to win the game and finish the regular season undefeated.






Week 8 College Football Conference Comparison

An update on the conference comparison from three weeks ago.

Looking at average ratings top to bottom, he SEC and Big-12 are far and away the leading conferences but it is closer than you might think.  The Pac-12 is a comfortable #3 with the B1G, ACC, and Big-East fairly close a few points back.

RankConferenceAverageHighLow
RankConferenceAverageHighLow
1SEC80.23497.85364.506
2Big-1279.28292.15464.020
3Pac-1275.24791.30262.385
4Big-Ten72.98586.89057.200
5ACC72.13586.10960.030
6Big-East71.53575.34865.476
7Independent69.27179.02959.640
8Mountain-West66.91290.99352.022
9WAC66.27074.22758.429
10C-USA64.89776.67551.299
11MAC64.39178.53252.299
12Sun-Belt57.06868.03745.816


Another way of looking at conference strengths is to look at performance in non-conference games.  But one can't just look at records as some schools/conferences play a lot of FCS/I-AA teams or even weak FBS/I-A teams.  A better way is to group the games played by a conference and run them through the computer's algorithm.  Doing this yields:

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Big-1277.46927-364.798
2SEC77.35331-464.007
3ACC71.80029-1163.474
4Big-Ten71.72134-1363.875
5Big-East71.63125-1365.930
6Pac-1271.43621-1266.184
7Independent69.37314-1568.415
8C-USA66.74921-2468.411
9WAC66.66512-2367.794
10MAC66.10621-3068.064
11Mountain-West64.20819-1865.979
12Sun-Belt62.60511-2069.640

Interestingly, the Big-12 comes out on top here narrowly over the SEC.  They have similar records and schedule strengths so it is very close.  They haven't gotten to these records playing the toughest schedules though as only the Big-Ten and ACC have weaker out of conference schedules.

College Football Week 8 Season Projections - 4 Undefeated Teams

The number of teams projected to finish undefeated stays at 4 this week with Oklahoma State replacing Wisconsin on the list.  Boise State has the best chance at over 85% and Clemson the worst at 53%.

The computer has Alabama and LSU in a virtual tie atop the rankings, but with the game at Alabama they get the nod in that game but LSU still has over a 30% chance of finishing the regular season unblemished.  Houston and Stanford also have an over 30% chance of going undefeated so there could still be changes to this list.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Boise St12-085.50.013.8
Oklahoma St12-073.10.024.5
Alabama12-066.70.032.8
Clemson12-053.10.041.3
LSU11-166.030.63.5
Wisconsin11-158.30.034.4
Southern Miss11-156.90.035.4
Houston11-146.530.720.2
Stanford11-146.130.320.7
Virginia Tech11-145.30.043.2

College Football Week 8 Ratings and Rankings - Alabama stays #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  And this week there are some big changes with Wisconsin and Oklahoma losing.

But at the very top, things are stable as Alabama and LSU stay in the top-2 spots in a virtual tie with little change, but there is a new #3, albeit over 5 points back, in Oklahoma State.  And with Oregon's only loss being to to LSU, they move ahead of Boise State as well as taking advantage of Wisconsin's and Oklahoma's losses to #4.  Boise State's struggles with Air Force hurt them a bit and Stanford showed they can easily handle a better team too and moved up to #6.

There are still 8 undefeated teams, but at least two will lose with Alabama/LSU and Oklahoma State/Kansas State playing in 2 weeks.  Look for the projections shortly to see who is projected to finish the regular season undefeated.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Alabama97.8538-071.089+0, -0.652
2LSU97.7328-073.901+0, -0.593
3Oklahoma St92.1547-073.574+3, +1.735
4Oregon91.3026-173.489+3, +1.242
5Boise St90.9937-071.307-1, -1.225
6Stanford89.8587-066.714+4, +3.029
7Texas A&M87.8515-275.760+2, -1.187
8Wisconsin86.8906-165.261-5,-11.221
9Arkansas86.7036-169.619-1, -3.096
10Oklahoma86.4076-172.475-5, -4.462
11Clemson86.1098-068.309+0, +0.211
12Arizona St83.7835-273.154+0, +0.920
13Southern Cal82.6626-172.990+24, +6.428
14Kansas St82.5527-069.541+1, +1.381
15Georgia82.2945-274.478+1, +1.223
16Michigan St81.9516-168.714+3, +1.932
17Michigan80.6126-168.208+1, +0.003
18South Carolina80.4946-171.409+6, +1.823
19Nebraska79.9446-170.312-6, -2.628
20Miami FL79.5104-371.436+7, +1.321
21Virginia Tech79.4607-169.092+4, +0.858
22Texas Tech79.2315-271.032+16, +3.288
23Notre Dame79.0294-374.013-6, -1.763
24Toledo78.5325-370.313+4, +0.548
25Baylor78.4794-270.467-2, -0.440

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Week 6 NFL Ratings Posted - Green Bay remains #1

The NFL ratings after week 6 are now posted here.

Green Bay stays #1 and New England #2, but there is a new #3 with the 49ers making a big move after beating then undefeated Detroit on the road, Detroit falling to #4.

The best team with a losing record is Dallas as they've easily played the toughest schedule thus far.

At the bottom of the list is St. Louis manages to stay #32 just behind Indianapolis but the gap is less than half a ratings point now.

The computer went a ho-hum 6-6-1 against the spread and in the the best picks and locks went 1-1-1 and 1-0 respectively.  See prediction performance here.

College Football Week 7 Season Projections - 4 Undefeated Teams

The number of teams projected to finish undefeated stays at 4 this week with Clemson replacing Michigan on the list.  Wisconsin has the best chance at nearly 97% and Clemson the worst at just over 56%.

Three of the 5 projected one loss teams have a good chance at going undefeated with Oklahoma State at 43%, LSU at 29%, and Stanford at 27%.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.


TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Wisconsin12-096.50.03.5
Boise St12-091.70.08.1
Alabama12-067.40.032.5
Clemson12-056.80.037.4
LSU11-163.828.87.4
Stanford11-145.726.722.7
Oklahoma St11-143.643.212.0
Houston11-141.014.034.9
Oklahoma11-140.815.232.2

College Football Week 7 Ratings and Rankings - Alabama stays #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  The rankings in the top-10 moved around a bit but generally were fairly stable.

Alabama and LSU stay in the top-2 spots with little change, but right behind them, while moving up only 1 spot but nearly 7.5 ratings points is Wisconsin.  Wisconsin's two meaningful opponents this year, Northern Illinois and Nebraska, both won or benefited from prior opponents doing better than expected and that push Wisconsin up.

Three undefeated teams (Michigan, Illinois, Georgia Tech) had losses leaving 10 remaining.  Look for the projections shortly to see who is projected to finish the regular season undefeated.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Alabama98.5057-070.419+0, +0.784
2LSU98.3257-073.518+0, +0.903
3Wisconsin98.1116-062.403+1, +7.497
4Boise St92.2186-072.053-1, +0.860
5Oklahoma90.8696-072.207+0, +1.649
6Oklahoma St90.4196-072.303+1, +3.865
7Oregon90.0605-171.741-1, +1.791
8Arkansas89.7995-167.959+1, +5.275
9Texas A&M89.0384-277.272+2, +5.616
10Stanford86.8296-065.480-2, +0.975
11Clemson85.8987-068.415+2, +4.929
12Arizona St82.8635-272.516+2, +1.947
13Nebraska82.5725-174.017+5, +4.499
14West Virginia82.2945-168.090+1, +1.407
15Kansas St81.1716-069.311+15, +5.775
16Georgia81.0715-273.793+0, +0.964
17Notre Dame80.7924-272.642-5, -0.220
18Michigan80.6096-168.028-8, -3.902
19Michigan St80.0195-166.297+19, +6.005
20Missouri79.6153-372.477+13, +4.817
21SMU79.6125-167.633+10, +4.262
22TCU79.0464-268.692+1, +1.596
23Baylor78.9194-270.841-2, +0.963
24South Carolina78.6716-169.394+0, +2.023
25Virginia Tech78.6026-169.077+16, +5.184

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Week 6 NFL odds oddities - Locks of the year?

Taking a look at a few early lines for NFL week 6 games, several stand out as odd, or if not odd, must bet games.  Now, I'll preface this with saying I tend to focus on the numbers and am a bit of a propeller head, and various intangibles can certainly change things.  But here are a few games to take a look at.

Cincinnati is a 7 point pick hosting Indianapolis.  The Colts have been bad this year, Cincinnati is at home and is 3-2, so 7 doesn't seem like nearly enough, the computer actually liking them by over 2 touchdowns!

Green Bay is on a roll while St. Louis is struggling so the Packers by only 14.5 at home isn't nearly enough, the computer liking them by nearly 4 touchdowns!

Another home team Oakland is favored by only 5.5 over Cleveland.  The Browns are 2-2, but against pretty weak competition (wins over the Colts and Dolphins) while Oakland is only 3-2 but against much tougher competition (loss on road to Buffalo and at home to New England) and the computer likes them by over 2 touchdowns!

And yet another home team, Washington is a pick'em game with the Eagles but the computer likes them by over a touchdown!

All of the above are teams where the home team seems to not be getting enough respect from Vegas, but there is also one road team not getting much respect and that is Buffalo, a 3 point underdog to the Giants while the computer picks them to win by a touchdown!

Is the computer off its rocker or are these picks you have to make?


NFL projected records after week 5

The projected playoff picture again stays pretty consistent week to week.  See the full list of projections here.  And new, see a summary of the projected playoff teams by week.

As can be seen from the summary, the only changes to the projected playoff teams are Tennessee out and Cincinnati in in the AFC, and Dallas and Washington swapping spots in the division/wildcard.

In the AFC Pittsburgh is projected to be 10-6 which would tie Cincinnati, but the Bengals have a better chance to be 10-6 as well as 11-5 so they get the nod.  Tennessee is close behind at 9-7.

In the NFC the playoff teams seem clear, with Washington the last team in at 10-6 and closest rival being Chicago at 8-8 and then Tampa Bay and Seattle at 7-9.  Will there be no drama in the NFC this year?

Week 5 NFL Ratings Posted - Green Bay remains #1

The NFL ratings after week 5 are now posted here.

Green Bay stays #1 but their ratings lead has shrunk to under a point.  Behind them, Detroit moves up to #3 swapping spots with New Orleans.  A bit further back, the Bay Area teams move up to #7 and #8 mostly at the expense of Houston and Tennessee.

At the bottom of the list is St. Louis manages to stay #32 just behind Indianapolis.

The computer went a very good 9-4 against the spread and in the the best picks and locks both stayed perfect going 3-0 and 4-0 respectively.  It also beat Vegas straight up going 9-4 vs 8-5 picking winners.  See prediction performance here.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

College Football Week 6 Season Projections - 4 Undefeated Teams

Last week there were 3 teams projected to finish undefeated, now there are 4!

Michigan joins Boise State, Wisconsin, and Alabama as teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated.  Boise State has the best chance with #23 TCU visiting them in 5 weeks being their only remaining test.  Michigan is nearly as likely to finish with 1 loss and with a finish against Nebraska and Ohio State they could be tested if those teams come together after early struggles and suspensions.

Of the teams projected to have 1 loss, 5 of them have a better than 20% chance at going undefeated, so there is a good chance one of them pulls it off.  Most likely is Stanford (they get Oregon in Palo Alto this year) but LSU is right there.

What about Oklahoma?  Their 4 toughest remaining games come in their last 5 games and the finish with Oklahoma State and the computer says the chance of exactly one loss is 43% with a 23% chance of not losing any.  Oklahoma State themselves is at 42% and 22% so very close behind due in part of that finishing game being in Stillwater.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Boise St12-094.90.05.1
Wisconsin12-076.80.021.2
Alabama12-071.10.028.9
Michigan12-047.90.039.3
LSU11-169.928.02.2
Clemson11-145.225.724.7
Stanford11-144.828.521.5
Oklahoma11-143.423.225.7
Oklahoma St11-142.222.326.9
Houston11-139.714.334.5

College Football Week 6 Ratings and Rankings - Alabama stays #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  The rankings in the top-10 moved around a bit but generally were fairly stable.

Alabama stays #1 improving their rating and LSU improves theirs two and stays #2 although the teams are in a virtual tie right now and well ahead of new #3 Boise State.  BSU's schedule is generally weak the rest of the year with only 1 team (TCU) with a rating about BSU's current schedule strength so their rating could begin to leak a bit.

LSU and BSU moved ahead of Wisconsin even though the Badgers were idle.  This is largely because Wisconsin's only meaningful game this year was against Nebraska, and Nebraska proved to be a little weaker than expected against Ohio State, and Nebraska prior opponent Wyoming got drubbed 63-19 by Utah State, so both Nebraska (down 4 spots) and Wisconsin were hurt.  Wisconsin will have plenty of opportunity to improve this as they play Illinois, Penn State, and Michigan State still, but 2 of those aren't until the end of the season so their impact may depend on how those teams do the rest of the season too.

Oklahoma's impressive win over Texas boosts their rating over 2 points and their ranking up to #5.  They too will have an opportunity to state their case at the end of the year as they face K-State, Texas A&M, Baylor, and Oklahoma State in consecutive games to end the regular season.

Thirteen teams remain undefeated, but 5 will be lost due to head to head matchups.  Look for the projections shortly to see who is projected to finish the regular season undefeated.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Alabama97.7216-070.058+0, +2.096
2LSU97.4226-071.687+1, +3.333
3Boise St91.3585-072.747+1, +2.312
4Wisconsin90.6145-063.332-2, -4.299
5Oklahoma89.2205-070.891+2, +2.444
6Oregon88.2694-169.277-1, +1.031
7Oklahoma St86.5545-068.920+1, +1.067
8Stanford85.8545-063.870-2, -1.178
9Arkansas84.5245-166.446+8, +6.116
10Michigan84.5116-064.883-1, -0.134
11Texas A&M83.4223-274.263+1, +2.642
12Notre Dame81.0124-273.055-1, -0.065
13Clemson80.9696-065.449-3, -1.066
14Arizona St80.9165-166.654+6, +3.265
15West Virginia80.8875-166.965+6, +3.544
16Georgia80.1074-273.056+6, +3.124
17Florida79.6654-271.621-4, -0.988
18Nebraska78.0735-169.509-4, -2.338
19Penn State78.0675-169.178+12, +3.707
20Rutgers78.0644-163.399+20, +5.110
21Baylor77.9564-164.429+20, +5.011
22Texas77.4884-170.669-7, -1.632
23TCU77.4504-267.082+9, +3.254
24South Carolina76.6485-166.110+1, +0.551
25Georgia Tech76.6036-061.149-6, -1.320

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

NFL projected records after week 4

With a quarter of the season complete, the projected playoff picture is starting to become more consistent week to week.  See the full list of projections here.

Green Bay remains the top overall team, projected at 15-1 with New Orleans close behind at 14-2.  The Saints actually have a very good chance (36.4%) at 15-1 as well.  Surprises Detroit and San Francisco would be in the playoffs at 12-4 with Washington winning the NFC East at 11-5 and Dallas getting in the playoffs at 10-6.  Presently only Chicago would be close on Dallas' heels for the last spot.  These are the same teams as projected last week, just Dallas and Washington swapping positions.

New England is projected to lead the AFC at 14-2 with Houston and Baltimore vying for the #2 seed at 12-4.  It may take an 11-5 record to get into the AFC playoffs with surprise Oakland, Tennessee, and Buffalo all at that record.  Another surprise, Cincinnati would be a game back.  These are also the same teams as last week.

What about some of the early season favorites?

The Jets are 2-2 and with the Patriots twice, Buffalo twice, plus 3 more from the NFC East, 9-7 is their projected record.

The Giants are 3-1 but play Buffalo, New England, and the Jets, plus Dallas twice and Washington another time, plus the 49ers, Packers, and Saints.  Most likely record for them is just 8-8.

Pittsburgh is 2-2 and has Tennessee, New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati twice, and the 49ers as tough games on the schedule leading to an 8-8 record being most likely.

San Diego is 3-1 but has the Jets, Packers, Oakland twice, Chicago, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Detroit as tough games leading to 6-10 being most likely.

And likely the biggest disappointment, the Eagles are 1-3 and have Washington and Dallas twice, the Giants, Jets, Bears, Bills, and Patriots as tough games leading to 4-12 being most likely.

Team's performance can certainly change and improve or go downhill so the above projections can and most likely will change.  But the first quarter of the season has certainly set us up for some surprises.

Week 4 NFL Ratings Posted - Green Bay remains #1

The NFL ratings after week 4 are now posted here.

Green Bay remains a confortable #1 stretching their lead over still #2 New England.  In fact, the top-5 remain the same from last week.

Changes start at #6 with Baltimore and Tennessee moving up at the expense of Houston and Oakland.

At the bottom of the list is St. Louis just behind Indianapolis.

The computer went a decent 9-7 against the spread and in the first week of best picks and locks went 3-0 and 1-0 respectively.  It also beat Vegas straight up going 12-4 vs 11-5.  See prediction performance here.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Week 5 College Football Conference Comparison

Pat Forde wrote a column on the strength of the SEC West vs SEC East which begged for some analysis from the computer and by and large it backs Pat up.

First, let's look at just the average ratings for the conferences.

RankConferenceAverageHighLow
1SEC76.59995.63459.832
2Big-1275.66386.78662.696
3Pac-1272.18787.24458.034
4Big-Ten72.12294.92755.073
5Big-East71.12877.95159.647
6Independent69.64381.08761.194
7ACC69.09282.04557.166
8Mountain-West66.82889.05449.049
9WAC63.50872.07657.740
10MAC62.56773.42748.076
11C-USA60.83473.44049.538
12Sun-Belt58.46465.38048.724

The SEC has a slim lead over the Big-12 with the Pac-12, Big-East, and Big-Ten in a group behind.  If we look at this same average for the SEC East and West we get:

RankConferenceAverageHighLow
1SEC West79.64195.63464.702
2SEC East73.55680.66259.832

A pretty big gap, but even the SEC East would be slightly above the Pac-12/Big-Ten/Big-East.

Another way of looking at conference strengths is to look at performance in non-conference games.  But one can't just look at records as some schools/conferences play a lot of FCS/I-AA teams or even weak FBS/I-A teams.  A better way is to group the games played by a conference and run them through the computer's algorithm.  Doing this yields:

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Big-1275.18027-362.745
2SEC74.86728-462.270
3Big-East70.68423-1163.453
4Big-Ten70.03434-1362.124
5ACC69.22927-1161.296
6Independent69.15010-967.152
7Pac-1268.98719-1163.899
8MAC64.32820-2866.527
9Mountain-West64.30318-1363.141
10WAC63.9919-2166.711
11C-USA63.38918-2266.326
12Sun-Belt60.32510-2067.472
13FCS/I-AA55.1356-8370.896

Interestingly, the Big-12 comes out on top here narrowly over the SEC.  They have similar records and schedule strengths so it is very close.  They haven't gotten to these records playing the toughest schedules though as only the Big-Ten and ACC have weaker out of conference schedules.

College Football Week 5 Season Projections - 3 Undefeated Teams

And then there were 3 teams projected to finish undefeated.

Boise State and Alabama did nothing to diminish their chances and remain as projected undefeateds, but Wisconsin joins the group while South Florida and Oklahoma State fall out.  South Florida lost, and Oklahoma State had future opponent Texas improve dramatically this week resulting in 1 loss being projected for them.

While there are just 3 projected perfect seasons, and we know which 2 would get into the BCS Championship Game, 7 other teams have a decent shot at joining/replacing them.  LSU's one loss would be to Alabama so if they turn that around they would swap places.  Similarly Georgia Tech plays Clemson.  Stanford would not be an underdog in any game remaining, but does have Oregon to play.  Oklahoma and Oklahoma State both have each other to play plus Texas and Michigan misses Wisconsin but does still have to get through Michigan State, Nebraska, and Illinois.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Boise St12-097.40.02.6
Wisconsin12-094.90.05.0
Alabama12-077.40.022.5
LSU11-174.721.14.1
Clemson11-146.635.216.7
Stanford11-143.532.919.1
Oklahoma St11-141.722.827.1
Michigan11-141.139.016.5
Oklahoma11-137.314.831.7
Georgia Tech11-134.312.433.7

College Football Week 5 Ratings and Rankings - New #1 Alabama

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  With several important games between top teams, there are some changes and favorites to make it to the BCS bowls are starting to show themselves.

With the computer's #1, #2, #3, #5, #7, #8, and #9 teams all winning in easy fashion, you might not think there would be a lot of changes, but indeed there are.  This is mostly due to who those wins were over and some impressive wins by teams outside the computer's top-10.

Alabama is the new #1 in large part due to their 38-10 drubbing of Florida, but also due to prior opponent Arkansas pulling the upset over Texas A&M, and other of their and Florida's prior opponents playing well.  This was enough to move them ahead of LSU who not only had a weak opponent but had  prior opponent Mississippi State lose by more than expected keeping them at about the same rating.  But the huge move in the top-10 is Wisconsin also jumping ahead of LSU with an enormous +10.5 ratings points jump after they manhandled Nebraska.

Boise State moves up a spot at Oregon's expense, but they and the rest of the top-10 are well back of the top-3 which are very close.  Stanford got dinged a bit by playing a weak UCLA squad and Oklahoma did their best to impress against Ball State, but playing a weak opponent is not the way to make a big move in the computer's eyes.

Another big mover joining the top-10 is Clemson.  With wins in consecutive weeks over the now #23, #27, and #36 teams, they are easily the highest ranked ACC team.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Alabama95.6345-068.352+1, +3.925
2Wisconsin94.9275-062.192+6,+10.543
3LSU94.0975-069.599-2, +0.980
4Boise St89.0544-072.031+1, +2.233
5Oregon87.2443-170.966-1, +0.381
6Stanford87.0404-065.589-3, -0.976
7Oklahoma86.7864-070.010+0, +1.987
8Oklahoma St85.4944-071.114-2, -1.281
9Michigan84.6595-064.447+0, +2.237
10Clemson82.0455-068.549+14, +6.010
11Notre Dame81.0873-275.345+4, +1.572
12Texas A&M80.7882-271.627-1, -1.328
13Florida80.6624-166.937-1, +0.157
14Nebraska80.4254-170.998-1, +0.366
15Texas79.1344-064.566+18, +5.593
16Tennessee78.6403-165.764+7, +2.276
17Arkansas78.4174-166.461+15, +4.857
18Pittsburgh77.9513-269.684+23, +6.754
19Georgia Tech77.9285-061.482-1, -0.461
20Arizona St77.6654-164.622-6, -2.355
21West Virginia77.3584-165.808+5, +2.552
22Georgia76.9933-270.772+7, +2.425
23Florida St76.9302-263.062+7, +2.832
24South Florida76.4174-164.906-14, -6.001
25South Carolina76.1064-168.593-8, -2.702