Sunday, January 31, 2010

One week to the Super Bowl


With the Super Bowl one week away, it is time to start to take a closer look at the combatants and the match up.  Newsletter subscribers already received a detailed preview and that preview will be posted on the Playoffs Preview page shortly before kickoff for all to see.

While it has not been common to have the #1 seeds from each conference make it to the Super Bowl, it happened this year just as the computer predicted.  Now, it is easy to pick the #1 seeds to make it, but the computer had the Saints and Colts far and away the favorites at 59.7% and 32.7% chance of making it thus far.

So, they made it.  How do they match up?  Below are the performance charts for each team through the end of the regular season.  The charts including playoff games is in the full preview to be posted later.


Both teams were the clear #1 and #2 all season until they let up on the accelerator late in the year, although the Saints had a large enough cushion to stay #1 even with the 3 losses.  If you believe the real indication of the quality of the teams was what they had done in week 14 or 15, New Orleans should be the pick to win.  And even with both teams getting back in the swing of things in the playoffs, New Orleans as stayed #1 with Indianapolis now up to #2 in the current rankings.

So what does that mean the prediction is?  The computer is picking the Saints by 1.4 which obviously makes the pick against the spread the Saints plus the points.

Stay tuned for the full preview with more details on the web-site later!

Thursday, January 28, 2010

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 1/24/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played yesterday.

In the NBA, Cleveland remains #1 and the Lakers #2 but there is jostling behind them with Utah, Orlando, and Denver moving up at Atlanta, Boston, and San Antonio's expense.  All these teams are close though so a loss or big win here and there can cause movement.

In College, Kansas moves to #1 as Duke's loss drops them to #2.  Texas' second loss drops them to #6 and Kentucky still isn't getting credit from the computer for being undefeated moving up only to #10.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

And There Were Two - Colts vs Saints

We now know the Superbowl contestants and with form holding, which it rarely does, we have the top 2 teams from the regular season in each conference facing off. And while they weren't #1 and #2 coming in to this weekend (#1 and #5), they were every meaningful week of the season since week 5 and are once again in the week 20 rankings below.  As usual, the current rankings can always be found here.

The computer did pick the winners in both championship games, but had the wrong side of the spread in the Indy game with the Jets inability to score in the second half letting that margin grow too large and got a push in the New Orleans game where they simply let the Vikings have try after try to tie the score keeping that one too close.  That drops the post reason record to 5-4-1 against the spread but increases the picks on winners to 7-3.  See this page for details.

Look for a Superbowl preview soon, and as usual newsletter subscribers will get a detailed preview this week including some "what if" scenarios of what the prediction would be if Indy and NO hadn't shut things down.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1New Orleans87.90615-380.664+0, -0.154
2Indianapolis86.54816-280.619+3, +0.663
3Minnesota85.96913-579.763+0, +0.062
4Dallas85.84012-681.133+0, -0.056
5New England85.58610-782.233+1, -0.048
6NY Jets85.46211-882.582-4, -0.585
7San Diego84.93113-479.766+0, -0.065
8Baltimore84.81510-881.295+0, +0.063
9Green Bay84.75011-679.329+0, +0.019
10Philadelphia84.11911-681.362+0, -0.047
11Carolina83.9238-882.880+0, -0.095
12Atlanta83.8209-782.390+0, -0.103
13Houston82.7879-780.331+0, +0.058
14Pittsburgh82.1399-779.998+0, -0.014
15Arizona81.84711-779.724+0, +0.052
16San Francisco81.3248-879.202+1, +0.060
17Cincinnati81.27510-780.638-1, -0.093
18Miami80.9297-983.163+0, -0.059
19Tennessee80.6378-881.302+0, +0.066
20Buffalo80.4006-1082.456+0, -0.049
21NY Giants80.2098-881.886+0, -0.052
22Denver80.1098-880.860+0, -0.009
23Chicago78.4557-980.051+0, +0.010
24Tampa Bay77.6213-1383.317+0, -0.104
25Jacksonville77.4027-980.746+0, +0.039
26Washington77.0224-1280.536+0, -0.056
27Cleveland76.1825-1180.507+0, -0.013
28Kansas City75.5214-1280.538+0, -0.038
29Oakland74.5635-1181.311+0, -0.060
30Seattle74.4595-1179.780+0, +0.058
31St Louis70.2851-1580.393+0, +0.072
32Detroit69.5602-1480.975+0, +0.015

Monday, January 18, 2010

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 1/17/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played yesterday.

In the NBA, Cleveland remains #1 by a healthy margin over a new #2 in the Lakers.  The Lakers move up not so much because they had a great week but because Boston went 1-2 and fell.  The next 5 in San Antonio, Atlanta, Utah, Orlando, and Denver are very close behind, the 7 spots behind Cleveland all being covered by less than 1 rating point.

In College, Duke remains #1 by over 2 ratings points with Kansas and Texas very close behind.  Why isn't Texas, or even Kentucky rated higher given they are undefeated?  It is helpful to look at the performance charts for this, so here is Duke, Texas, and Kentucky for comparison.





While Duke has losses, they also have more highs than Texas or Kentucky.  Duke has 5 games scoring over 100 ratings points (Charlotte, Gonzaga, Clemson, Iowa St, and Wake Forest) while Texas has only 2 (Pitt and USC) and Kentucky just 1 (Florida).  And even in their 2 losses Duke scored 91 and 88 ratings points, while Texas has 4 wins that scored under 90 ratings points (Rice, Gardner-Webb, TAMU-Corpus Christi, and Texas A&M) and Kentucky has 8 such games.

In the end, the computer thinks Duke is better than Texas and Kentucky even though they have 2 losses and the others are undefeated.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

NFL Divisional Round Rankings and Summary

Three of the games weren't terribly compelling, but the last one was, and in any case we are down to the final 4 teams with 3 expected to be there and one big surprise.

But should we really be surprised?  The computer had the Jets in the top-10 since week 14 and had them #6 coming in to this game less than 0.4 ratings points behind the Chargers.  This made them a clear pick plus the points and they pulled off the minor upset.

The result is that they move to #2 behind the Saints who continue to hold a pretty clear margin at #1.  Very close behind the Jets are the other combatants in next weeks games plus Dallas is still at #4 on the strength of their December finish and big wins over Philly.  Even though the Colts are #5, we know this is due to not playing starters the last 2 games and thus probably isn't representative of where they should really be rated.  Even so #2 thru #5 are less than 0.17 ratings points apart so not much between them.

The computer has done fairly well picking games in the playoffs going 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 picking winners.  See the 2010 NFL Playoffs Previews for more details on the picks and performance.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1New Orleans88.06014-380.612+0, +0.599
2NY Jets86.04711-782.209+4, +0.611
3Minnesota85.90713-479.103+6, +1.173
4Dallas85.89612-681.180-2, -1.355
5Indianapolis85.88515-280.514+2, +0.932
6New England85.63410-782.286-1, +0.141
7San Diego84.99613-479.828-4, -0.793
8Baltimore84.75210-881.244-4, -0.783
9Green Bay84.73111-679.315-1, -0.091
10Philadelphia84.16611-681.417+0, -0.403
11Carolina84.0188-882.977+0, +0.136
12Atlanta83.9239-782.490+0, +0.048
13Houston82.7299-780.276+0, +0.208
14Pittsburgh82.1539-780.007+0, -0.122
15Arizona81.79511-779.667+0, -0.382
16Cincinnati81.36810-780.703+0, -0.001
17San Francisco81.2648-879.130+0, +0.066
18Miami80.9887-983.230+0, +0.210
19Tennessee80.5718-881.243+1, +0.138
20Buffalo80.4496-1082.523+2, +0.234
21NY Giants80.2618-881.938-2, -0.217
22Denver80.1188-880.859-1, -0.300
23Chicago78.4457-980.037+0, +0.058
24Tampa Bay77.7253-1383.416+0, +0.075
25Jacksonville77.3637-980.682+1, +0.167
26Washington77.0784-1280.589-1, -0.292
27Cleveland76.1955-1180.517+0, -0.120
28Kansas City75.5594-1280.572+0, -0.301
29Oakland74.6235-1181.375+0, -0.280
30Seattle74.4015-1179.709+0, +0.058
31St Louis70.2131-1580.327+0, +0.122
32Detroit69.5452-1480.965+0, +0.021

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Updated Superbowl Odds (1/10)

With 2 teams eliminated and 2 teams through, it is time to take a look at how the Superbowl odds have changed.

The Saints remain the team most likely to get to the Superbowl in large part due to the Eagles no longer being a possible opponent.  While they couldn't beat Dallas this year, Philly was rated fairly highly, certainly higher than Arizona.

Naturally the Jets and Cowboys improved as they are past the first game, and in fact they move ahead of Minnesota for winning, but not getting to, the Superbowl.  The computer is presently calling the Dallas at Minnesota game pretty much a pick'em right now as Dallas is rated higher.

TeamConferenceSuperbowl
New Orleans0.5970.336
Indianapolis0.3270.178
San Diego0.2800.160
Dallas0.2370.133
NY Jets0.1890.108
Minnesota0.2090.099
New England0.1570.096
Green Bay0.1080.053
Baltimore0.0480.024
Arizona0.0570.022
Cincinnati0.0000.000
Philadelphia0.0000.000

Good Start to the Playoffs

The computer is off to a good start predicting playoff games going 2-0 picking winners and against the spread yesterday.  See the detailed picks/preview for the Jets/Bengals and Eagles/Cowboys for more info.  Also see the summary for the full playoffs here.

Today, the computer likes New England to cover and Green Bay to win, although the pick against the spread depends on what line you get.  The detailed preview for the Packers/Cardinals will go up shortly before game time.

Enjoy the games!

Thursday, January 7, 2010

2009/2010 Week 19 and Final College Football Ratings and Rankings

Ratings through week 19 (games played thru 7-Jan-2010).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

And Alabama comes through winning the championship game and affirming the clear #1 ranking the computer had given them throughout much of the year.  They were #1 every week but one since week 4 of the season and had a 5 ratings point lead over #2 at the end of the pre-bowl season and maintained that through the bowls.

Behind Alabama, the rest of the top-5 stay the same as coming into this week which may be surprising, but isn't when you look at the details.  Florida deserves the #2 spot having lost only to Alabama and dominated a previously undefeated Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl.  TCU lost, and dropped nearly 2.5 ratings points, but Texas behind them also dropped over 1 ratings point to stay behind them, and while Boise State beat TCU and gained 2.6 ratings points, the gap was too big for them to make it all up.  What the computer is saying is if TCU played any of the team behind them on a neutral field, TCU would be favored to win.

And the computer had a fantastic bowl season predicting games, so its ratings and rankings must not be so bad.  It went 22-11-1 against the spread, a 67% clip which I'm very pleased with.  Results for the full season are here but that great bowl season just extended a good regular season bringing the total to 417-316-12.

Now it will be time to turn the computer's attention to basketball, so stay tuned for more on that.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Alabama 93.247 14-0 72.882 +0, +1.184
2 Florida 88.519 13-1 71.748 +0, +0.172
3 TCU 85.160 12-1 67.725 +0, -2.471
4 Texas 84.861 13-1 70.714 +0, -1.045
5 Virginia Tech 83.722 10-3 73.107 +0, -0.238
6 Boise St 83.207 14-0 63.526 +1, +2.600
7 Arkansas 80.847 8-5 72.646 -1, +0.094
8 Ohio State 80.804 11-2 68.235 +2, +0.496
9 LSU 80.531 9-4 73.061 +0, +0.178
10 Oregon 80.294 10-3 72.403 +3, +0.347
11 Cincinnati 80.094 12-1 68.474 +1, +0.041
12 Oklahoma 79.944 8-5 70.661 -1, -0.209
13 Nebraska 79.176 10-4 69.048 +1, -0.137
14 Georgia Tech 78.947 11-3 73.091 -6, -1.455
15 Penn State 78.684 11-2 66.420 +4, +0.503
16 Mississippi 78.455 9-4 70.151 +2, +0.077
17 Texas Tech 78.405 9-4 67.664 -1, -0.148
18 Clemson 78.241 9-5 70.796 -3, -0.563
19 Miami FL 78.219 9-4 72.025 -2, -0.319
20 Iowa 78.032 11-2 69.404 +8, +2.013
21 Pittsburgh 77.808 10-3 69.043 +0, -0.050
22 Brigham Young 77.546 11-2 67.851 -2, -0.392
23 Stanford 76.909 8-5 70.226 -1, +0.087
24 Auburn 76.644 8-5 72.407 -1, +0.127
25 Tennessee 76.297 7-6 71.768 +0, -0.016
26 Southern Cal 76.122 9-4 70.845 +3, +0.144
27 Utah 76.119 10-3 66.985 -3, -0.307
28 Connecticut 76.000 8-5 69.291 -2, -0.035
29 Georgia 75.719 8-5 73.011 +1, -0.138
30 North Carolina 75.707 8-5 70.071 -3, -0.317
31 Oregon St 75.574 8-5 69.945 +0, +0.060
32 Arizona 74.827 8-5 71.635 +2, +0.236
33 Wisconsin 74.447 10-3 67.553 +4, +0.474
34 Air Force 74.358 8-5 65.617 -2, -0.262
35 Florida St 74.277 7-6 73.475 -2, -0.329
36 Mississippi St 74.031 5-7 73.274 +0, -0.057
37 Oklahoma St 73.987 9-4 68.852 -2, -0.155
38 West Virginia 73.893 9-4 69.886 +0, -0.059
39 Kentucky 73.700 7-6 70.102 +0, -0.026
40 South Carolina 73.666 7-6 73.878 +0, -0.052
41 Rutgers 72.994 9-4 62.510 +0, -0.052
42 Navy 72.358 10-4 65.951 +0, +0.038
43 California 72.216 8-5 70.534 +1, +0.102
44 Boston College 71.964 8-5 69.295 -1, -0.171
45 Notre Dame 71.919 6-6 69.853 +3, +0.135
46 Central Michigan 71.909 12-2 61.036 +1, +0.089
47 South Florida 71.867 8-5 66.893 -2, -0.060
48 Wake Forest 71.568 5-7 71.021 -2, -0.285
49 East Carolina 71.034 9-5 67.694 +0, -0.079
50 Washington 70.970 5-7 71.449 +0, +0.155
51 Houston 70.638 10-4 64.332 +0, -0.101
52 Texas A&M 70.496 6-7 69.760 +0, -0.127
53 UCLA 70.488 7-6 70.790 +0, +0.103
54 Michigan St 70.464 6-7 68.892 +1, +0.416
55 Missouri 70.323 8-5 68.511 -1, -0.058
56 Minnesota 68.794 6-7 70.605 +1, +0.388
57 Troy 68.567 9-4 63.203 -1, +0.049
58 Northwestern 68.458 8-5 64.899 +3, +0.528
59 Nevada 68.265 8-5 64.583 +1, +0.260
60 Kansas 68.133 5-7 69.145 -2, -0.159
61 Arizona St 67.958 4-8 68.416 +1, +0.121
62 Purdue 67.797 5-7 68.440 +2, +0.359
63 Middle Tennessee St 67.733 10-3 60.467 +0, -0.084
64 Virginia 67.658 3-9 73.181 -5, -0.382
65 Fresno St 67.452 8-5 65.474 +1, +0.362
66 Iowa St 67.277 7-6 66.550 -1, +0.094
67 Kansas St 66.786 6-6 67.097 +0, -0.067
68 Central Florida 66.638 8-5 65.081 +0, -0.117
69 SMU 66.562 8-5 64.428 +1, -0.056
70 Southern Miss 66.445 7-6 62.616 +1, -0.092
71 Temple 66.386 9-4 61.461 +2, +0.101
72 Duke 66.295 5-7 67.978 -3, -0.341
73 Louisiana Tech 66.239 4-8 65.693 +2, +0.405
74 North Carolina St 66.228 5-7 67.399 -2, -0.249
75 Baylor 65.849 4-8 70.544 -1, -0.147
76 Ohio U. 65.387 9-5 62.178 +0, +0.081
77 Syracuse 65.340 4-8 69.131 +0, +0.089
78 Bowling Green 65.060 7-6 63.452 +0, +0.222
79 Marshall 64.732 7-6 66.156 +0, -0.031
80 Wyoming 64.425 7-6 68.329 +0, -0.230
81 Michigan 64.334 5-7 65.254 +1, +0.380
82 Illinois 64.096 3-9 69.115 +1, +0.343
83 Maryland 63.883 2-10 70.812 -2, -0.225
84 Northern Illinois 63.504 7-6 59.863 +1, +0.146
85 UNLV 63.213 5-7 66.983 -1, -0.150
86 Alabama-Birmingham 63.200 5-7 65.686 +1, -0.056
87 Colorado 63.186 3-9 69.745 -1, -0.107
88 Indiana 63.026 4-8 66.935 +2, +0.381
89 Vanderbilt 62.976 2-10 71.299 -1, -0.158
90 Louisville 62.833 4-8 68.509 -1, -0.051
91 Tulsa 62.401 5-7 63.396 +0, +0.023
92 Utah St 62.399 4-8 66.521 +0, +0.324
93 Idaho 62.310 8-5 64.211 +0, +0.293
94 Buffalo 61.846 5-7 62.019 +1, +0.079
95 Hawaii 61.765 6-7 63.406 +1, +0.334
96 San Diego St 61.690 4-8 66.127 -2, -0.157
97 UTEP 61.375 4-8 63.061 +0, -0.052
98 Colorado St 60.439 3-9 67.665 +0, -0.119
99 Florida Atlantic 58.551 5-7 61.882 +0, -0.052
100 Kent St 58.510 5-7 59.925 +0, +0.081
101 Western Michigan 58.090 5-7 60.490 +0, +0.155
102 Louisiana-Monroe 57.806 6-6 60.987 +0, -0.023
103 Toledo 57.143 5-7 62.068 +0, +0.120
104 Memphis 56.525 2-10 66.101 +0, -0.052
105 Army 55.590 5-7 60.558 +0, -0.038
106 Arkansas St 55.405 4-8 59.314 +0, -0.075
106 Louisiana-Lafayette 55.405 6-6 60.609 +1, -0.031
108 Ball St 54.263 2-10 61.830 +0, +0.091
109 Washington St 54.241 1-11 72.134 +0, +0.132
110 Tulane 54.054 3-9 65.043 -1, -0.055
111 Akron 53.577 3-9 62.090 +1, +0.139
112 New Mexico 53.416 1-11 68.766 -1, -0.047
113 Miami OH 53.096 1-11 67.032 +0, +0.143
114 North Texas 52.929 2-10 60.853 +0, -0.017
115 Rice 52.851 2-10 66.969 +0, -0.066
116 San Jose St 52.815 2-10 67.009 +0, +0.237
117 Florida Int'l 52.340 3-9 65.020 +0, -0.015
118 New Mexico St 50.934 3-10 64.241 +0, +0.150
119 Western Kentucky 45.936 0-12 61.805 +0, -0.020
120 Eastern Michigan 45.385 0-12 63.218 +0, +0.101

Monday, January 4, 2010

NBA Rankings Through January 3rd

I've updated the NBA rankings on the Schmidt Computer Ratings website through yesterday's games.

The top 3 stay the same but Cleveland, Boston, and the Lakers are all within about 1.5 ratings points so they are close.  Orlando and San Antonio move up a bit this week and are nipping at the heels of the Lakers.

I haven't spent the time to try to track the spreads for all the games and tune the computer to maximize the performance there, but am starting to and in the games I tracked last week the computer went 5-2 against the spread.  The picks for tonight's games are:
  • Miami +1.5 over Atlanta
  • Ok City +2.5 over Chicago
  • New Orleans +8 over Utah
  • Portland +4 over the Clippers
While it is picking underdogs in each of these games, 5 of the 7 last week it picked favorites.

Enjoy

Superbowl Odds

With the playoff teams finally nailed down and week 17 complete, the computer can now run its calculations to identify the chance of each team getting to and winning the Superbowl.

Interestingly, despite the Colts being ranked #8 now after the 2 losses, they are still the AFC favorite to get to the Superbowl and the #2 pick to win it.  The getting to the Superbowl is due to having home field advantage throughout the playoffs and New Orleans benefits from that too with even a higher chance of getting to the Superbowl than the Colts.

As you might expect, the other teams with first round byes also are the other 2 with the best chance those being the Chargers and Vikings.  The best of the rest are the Patriots and Dallas and the rest are pretty slim.  But the chances for Arizona were pretty slim last year too.

TeamConferenceSuperbowl
New Orleans0.4400.249
Indianapolis0.3520.163
San Diego0.2980.145
Minnesota0.2420.117
New England0.1530.079
Dallas0.1400.077
NY Jets0.0930.044
Green Bay0.0800.040
Philadelphia0.0520.026
Baltimore0.0500.022
Cincinnati0.0530.020
Arizona0.0440.018

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Wildcard Weekend Preview

I'll likely post another entry as the lines get published and settle in, but I've posted early picks for wildcard weekend here.

In what I believe is a first, three of the four games are rematches of the final week of the season, two of those three even at the same location.

Green Bay goes back to Arizona where they just won 33-7 and based in large part on that win the computer picks them by 0.5.  As Arizona sat starters, the 33-7 is probably not indicative of the real Arizona team, but did sitting starters ruin whatever momentum they had?

Philly goes back to Dallas where they just got hammered 24-0 and the computer likes Dallas to win again by 4.3.  Philly had been moving up, so was this loss an aberation or is this the real Philly when playing at Dallas?

The Jets play Cincy again, but this time at the Bengals.  The Bengals clearly didn't go all out so the 37-0 score isn't indicative, but that score does lead the computer to pick the Jets to pull the upset by a narrow 0.3.  If the Bengals can pull it back together, clearly that isn't the right pick.

And in the only non-repeat game, Baltimore visits New England and the computer likes the home team by 5.4.

More to come later.

End of Regular Season NFL Ratings/Ranking and Review

The regular season is now complete, and none too soon given the way some good teams packed it in the last few weeks.  Teams resting starters wreaked havoc with the computer's picks the last few weeks, but the question now is if those teams can go back to where they were?

The latest rankings are below but always found here.  And there are some changes.  New Orleans somehow manages to stay #1 even though they lost over 1.2 ratings points as they had a big enough lead, and many of the other top teams also did poorly and dropped.  New England was one of those dropping nearly a full ratings point but benefited by the Colts dropping over 2 points to stay #2, and Dallas jumps up to #3 with San Diego close behind at #4.

The question now is if the teams are rated where they should be.  Indianapolis seems low at #8, but history shows that when they've rested folks they've been unable to get it back.  Dallas and San Diego are finishing strong and getting rewarded for it.  The Jets even with their finish have jumped to #7.

The whacky end of season games did result in the computer only going 8-8 against the spread.  Here's hoping it does better in the playoffs more in line with the season record of 148-102-6.  Full prediction performance shown here.

Look for an upcoming entry on wildcard weekend picks as well as Superbowl chances for each team.  If you are interested in detailed playoff games previews, subscribe to the newsletter.  See the bowl game previews for examples of what you'll get.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1New Orleans87.59313-380.858+0, -1.208
2New England86.68410-682.069+0, -0.908
3Dallas86.59411-580.982+3, +0.984
4San Diego85.72113-379.851+1, -0.569
5Philadelphia85.25911-581.155-1, -1.176
6Green Bay85.15811-578.809+3, +1.494
7NY Jets85.1149-781.758+0, +0.722
8Indianapolis84.92514-280.356-5, -2.149
9Minnesota84.67312-478.875+1, +1.178
10Baltimore84.3329-780.390-2, +0.207
11Atlanta83.9909-782.562+0, +0.502
12Carolina83.9678-882.992+0, +1.116
13Houston82.6189-780.137+1, +0.346
14Pittsburgh82.1569-780.025+5, +0.976
15Cincinnati81.78210-680.467+0, -0.482
16Arizona81.69210-678.647-3, -1.139
17San Francisco81.1968-879.010+3, +0.068
18Miami80.9337-983.173-1, -0.590
19Tennessee80.4798-881.110+2, -0.267
20NY Giants80.4778-882.180-2, -0.890
21Denver80.3888-881.155-5, -1.739
22Buffalo80.3516-1082.443+0, +1.648
23Chicago78.3327-979.968+2, +0.628
24Tampa Bay77.7773-1383.521-1, -0.344
25Washington77.3714-1280.887+1, +0.301
26Jacksonville77.2477-980.523-2, -0.572
27Cleveland76.2135-1180.529+0, +0.825
28Kansas City75.8124-1280.851+2, +1.801
29Oakland74.8115-1181.610-1, -0.021
30Seattle74.2885-1179.568-1, -0.220
31St Louis70.0371-1580.137+0, -0.625
32Detroit69.4382-1480.812+0, -0.189

Saturday, January 2, 2010

2009/2010 Week 18 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 18 (games played thru 2-Jan).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

30 games down, only 4 to go!  And while there have been upsets and surprises in the games of the last week and there have been some big movers farther down in the rankings, the top-6 remain the same.

Alabama easily remains #1 although Florida did narrow the gap after dismantling Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl.  TCU stays #3 after moving to that spot last week after the early success of the Mountain West Conference in the bowls and in fact extends the lead over Texas.  Virginia Tech and Arkansas both won their bowl games and keep their rankings, although VT did so impressively and improved their rating while Arkansas eked out their win and actually lost ratings points but narrowly stayed ahead of Boise State who moved up to #7 thanks to Cincinnati and Oregon both falling out of the top-10.  Georgia Tech and Ohio State also benefited from those teams dropping.

The computer has continued the good performance against the spread and is now 19-11.  A nice summary of the picks and performance is here.  Full prediction performance for the year is here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Alabama 92.063 13-0 71.945 +0, -0.012
2 Florida 88.347 13-1 71.694 +0, +1.074
3 TCU 87.631 12-0 66.649 +0, +0.598
4 Texas 85.906 13-0 69.109 +0, -0.783
5 Virginia Tech 83.960 10-3 73.302 +0, +1.227
6 Arkansas 80.753 8-5 72.532 +0, -1.073
7 Boise St 80.607 13-0 61.621 +3, -0.126
8 Georgia Tech 80.402 11-2 72.999 +4, +0.271
9 LSU 80.353 9-4 72.886 +0, -0.677
10 Ohio State 80.308 11-2 67.802 +7, +2.257
11 Oklahoma 80.153 8-5 70.858 +0, -0.529
12 Cincinnati 80.053 12-1 68.407 -4, -1.172
13 Oregon 79.947 10-3 72.073 -6, -1.561
14 Nebraska 79.313 10-4 69.191 +2, +1.057
15 Clemson 78.804 9-5 71.330 +0, +0.077
16 Texas Tech 78.553 9-4 67.803 -2, -0.696
17 Miami FL 78.538 9-4 72.317 -4, -0.818
18 Mississippi 78.378 9-4 70.066 +0, +0.364
19 Penn State 78.181 11-2 65.999 +5, +1.504
20 Brigham Young 77.938 11-2 68.155 +2, +0.567
21 Pittsburgh 77.858 10-3 69.074 -2, +0.151
22 Stanford 76.822 8-5 70.128 -1, -0.614
23 Auburn 76.517 8-5 72.235 +0, -0.843
24 Utah 76.426 10-3 67.206 +3, +0.369
25 Tennessee 76.313 7-6 71.687 -5, -1.265
26 Connecticut 76.035 8-5 69.325 +9, +1.233
27 North Carolina 76.024 8-5 70.356 +3, +0.396
28 Iowa 76.019 10-2 68.283 +6, +0.865
29 Southern Cal 75.978 9-4 70.688 -3, -0.315
30 Georgia 75.857 8-5 73.111 +1, +0.576
31 Oregon St 75.514 8-5 69.872 -3, -0.519
32 Air Force 74.620 8-5 65.889 +13, +2.520
33 Florida St 74.606 7-6 73.780 +6, +1.659
34 Arizona 74.591 8-5 71.385 -9, -1.800
35 Oklahoma St 74.142 9-4 69.003 -6, -1.881
36 Mississippi St 74.088 5-7 73.272 +0, -0.356
37 Wisconsin 73.973 10-3 67.132 +10, +2.196
38 West Virginia 73.952 9-4 69.928 -6, -1.279
39 Kentucky 73.726 7-6 70.058 -2, -0.294
40 South Carolina 73.718 7-6 73.855 -7, -1.445
41 Rutgers 73.046 9-4 62.546 -3, -0.002
42 Navy 72.320 10-4 65.906 +12, +2.178
43 Boston College 72.135 8-5 69.459 +3, +0.298
44 California 72.114 8-5 70.437 -3, -0.395
45 South Florida 71.927 8-5 66.944 +6, +0.819
46 Wake Forest 71.853 5-7 71.331 +2, +0.307
47 Central Michigan 71.820 11-2 60.331 -3, -0.346
48 Notre Dame 71.784 6-6 69.710 +2, +0.455
49 East Carolina 71.113 9-5 67.771 +3, +0.160
50 Washington 70.815 5-7 71.288 -1, -0.515
51 Houston 70.739 10-4 64.413 -11, -1.988
52 Texas A&M 70.623 6-7 69.883 -10, -1.852
53 UCLA 70.385 7-6 70.694 +0, -0.187
54 Missouri 70.381 8-5 68.579 -11, -1.857
55 Michigan St 70.048 6-7 68.487 +0, +0.719
56 Troy 68.518 9-3 62.468 +0, -0.297
57 Minnesota 68.406 6-7 70.203 +5, +0.821
58 Kansas 68.292 5-7 69.324 -1, -0.426
59 Virginia 68.040 3-9 73.669 +2, +0.246
60 Nevada 68.005 8-5 64.240 +0, +0.169
61 Northwestern 67.930 8-5 64.487 +12, +1.523
62 Arizona St 67.837 4-8 68.313 -4, -0.568
63 Middle Tennessee St 67.817 10-3 60.557 -4, -0.206
64 Purdue 67.438 5-7 68.094 +7, +0.868
65 Iowa St 67.183 7-6 66.431 -2, -0.370
66 Fresno St 67.090 8-5 65.070 +2, +0.417
67 Kansas St 66.853 6-6 67.163 -3, -0.635
68 Central Florida 66.755 8-5 65.226 -3, -0.485
69 Duke 66.636 5-7 68.286 +3, +0.138
70 SMU 66.618 8-5 64.614 -3, -0.120
71 Southern Miss 66.537 7-6 62.703 -5, -0.349
72 North Carolina St 66.477 5-7 67.613 +2, +0.245
73 Temple 66.285 9-4 61.351 -4, -0.378
74 Baylor 65.996 4-8 70.709 -4, -0.616
75 Louisiana Tech 65.834 4-8 65.280 +2, +0.393
76 Ohio U. 65.306 9-5 62.103 +0, -0.327
77 Syracuse 65.251 4-8 69.023 +2, +0.295
78 Bowling Green 64.838 7-6 63.169 -3, -0.812
79 Marshall 64.763 7-6 66.197 -1, -0.331
80 Wyoming 64.655 7-6 68.695 +0, +0.359
81 Maryland 64.108 2-10 71.030 +1, +0.236
82 Michigan 63.954 5-7 64.803 +5, +0.928
83 Illinois 63.753 3-9 68.793 +3, +0.670
84 UNLV 63.363 5-7 67.259 +5, +0.562
85 Northern Illinois 63.358 7-6 59.706 -4, -0.863
86 Colorado 63.293 3-9 69.907 -3, -0.566
87 Alabama-Birmingham 63.256 5-7 65.736 -3, -0.365
88 Vanderbilt 63.134 2-10 71.420 -3, -0.152
89 Louisville 62.884 4-8 68.557 -1, +0.025
90 Indiana 62.645 4-8 66.518 +4, +0.867
91 Tulsa 62.378 5-7 63.243 -1, -0.316
92 Utah St 62.075 4-8 66.200 +1, +0.258
93 Idaho 62.017 8-5 63.832 +2, +0.624
94 San Diego St 61.847 4-8 66.408 +2, +0.506
95 Buffalo 61.767 5-7 61.953 -4, -0.317
96 Hawaii 61.431 6-7 63.009 +1, +0.632
97 UTEP 61.427 4-8 63.175 -5, -0.432
98 Colorado St 60.558 3-9 67.963 +0, +0.506
99 Florida Atlantic 58.603 5-7 61.940 +0, -0.196
100 Kent St 58.429 5-7 59.857 +0, -0.288
101 Western Michigan 57.935 5-7 60.320 +1, -0.064
102 Louisiana-Monroe 57.829 6-6 61.085 -1, -0.228
103 Toledo 57.023 5-7 61.920 +0, -0.239
104 Memphis 56.577 2-10 66.145 +0, -0.419
105 Army 55.628 5-7 60.596 +2, +0.142
106 Arkansas St 55.480 4-8 59.176 -1, -0.169
107 Louisiana-Lafayette 55.436 6-6 60.630 -1, -0.207
108 Ball St 54.172 2-10 61.739 +0, -0.278
109 Tulane 54.109 3-9 65.103 +0, -0.337
109 Washington St 54.109 1-11 71.987 +1, -0.262
111 New Mexico 53.463 1-11 69.115 +3, +0.339
112 Akron 53.438 3-9 61.931 -1, -0.179
113 Miami OH 52.953 1-11 66.688 -1, -0.316
114 North Texas 52.946 2-10 60.764 +1, -0.176
115 Rice 52.917 2-10 67.045 -2, -0.271
116 San Jose St 52.578 2-10 66.617 +1, +0.326
117 Florida Int'l 52.355 3-9 64.922 -1, -0.221
118 New Mexico St 50.784 3-10 63.850 +0, +0.308
119 Western Kentucky 45.956 0-12 61.825 +0, -0.139
120 Eastern Michigan 45.284 0-12 63.060 +0, -0.173

Friday, January 1, 2010

New Years Day 2010 Bowl Previews

Happy New Year and welcome to 2010.  While television has saddled us with only 5 games (same as last year but down from 6 the few years before that and more in the "olden days"), there are a few good ones.  The full previews newsletter subscribers got earlier this week will be posted around game time, but here is a short synopsis on each game.

The day kicks off with the Outback Bowl and Auburn favored big over Northwestern.  Even with the line growing to 8 or 9, the computer says it isn't enough picking Auburn by over 10.

Next up is LSU and Penn State in the Capital One Bowl where PSU was favored by 3 early but now it appears as a pick'em or even LSU by 1.  The computer liked LSU from the start, having the margin over 4 so I hope you got the early +3!

Florida State and West Virginia go at it in the Gator Bowl with WVU the 2 to 3 point pick and the computer agrees, the margin having been predicted to be right around 2.5 the whole bowl season.

In the grandaddy of them all, Oregon and Ohio State go head to head and Oregon is the Vegas pick by around 4 and early that was the computer's pick too, but with the Pac-10 underachieving a bit the pick is now down under 3.

And in the Sugar Bowl, Cincinnati tries to stay undefeated against a Florida team with a whole host of emotions in play and the Vegas line of 13 is way too high according to the computer, it pegging it at around 6.  But how will Cincinnati play with an acting head coach?

That's it for now.  Follow @computerratings on Twitter for more tidbits throughout the day.