Monday, November 30, 2009

2009 Week 12 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Week 12 of the NFL season is complete and there were remarkably few changes in the ratings.  The ratings are below but can always be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.

And there are still 2.  New Orleans wins easily and Indy has to forge a comeback and both stay undefeated and #1 and #2 in the rankings.  New England stays #3 as they were expected to lose by 6 and lost by 17 which dropped their rating nearly a point, but even with Minnesota improving their rating over a point they didn't quite bridge the gap.  Baltimore, San Diego, and Cincinnati all win and stay in their spots as well.

The computer did ok overall going 8-7-1 against the spread this week and beat Vegas going 14-2 straight up compared to 13-3.  And the best picks against the spread went a great 5-1.  Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
New Orleans
92.154
11-0
78.691
+0, +0.753
2
Indianapolis
89.790
11-0
81.598
+0, +0.223
3
New England
87.221
7-4
82.355
+0, -0.911
4
Minnesota
86.993
10-1
77.605
+0, +1.109
5
Baltimore
85.715
6-5
82.066
+0, +0.229
6
San Diego
84.943
8-3
79.647
+0, +0.245
7
Cincinnati
84.350
8-3
80.182
+0, -0.188
8
Pittsburgh
84.331
6-5
80.975
+1, +0.247
9
Dallas
83.895
8-3
78.528
+2, +0.101
10
Arizona
83.555
7-4
80.169
+0, -0.493
11
Denver
82.634
7-4
81.551
+7, +1.351
12
Houston
82.584
5-6
82.141
+0, -0.169
13
Philadelphia
82.317
6-5
79.472
-5, -1.876
14
Green Bay
81.982
7-4
78.106
+5, +0.748
15
Tennessee
81.917
5-6
82.975
+2, +0.320
16
San Francisco
81.916
5-6
81.099
+4, +1.029
17
NY Jets
81.892
5-6
81.774
-1, +0.003
18
Atlanta
81.806
6-5
81.478
-5, -0.889
19
Miami
80.860
5-6
82.985
-5, -1.723
20
NY Giants
80.590
6-5
81.471
-5, -1.490
21
Buffalo
78.624
4-7
81.330
+3, +1.564
22
Jacksonville
78.615
6-5
80.967
-1, -0.753
23
Carolina
78.265
4-7
81.979
-1, -0.747
24
Chicago
78.234
4-7
80.941
-1, -0.637
25
Seattle
77.335
4-7
80.385
+1, +0.671
26
Washington
77.238
4-7
78.879
+1, +1.624
27
Kansas City
75.828
3-8
81.269
-2, -0.869
28
Tampa Bay
74.622
1-10
82.268
+1, +0.456
29
Oakland
74.188
3-8
81.528
-1, -0.617
30
Cleveland
72.644
1-10
82.914
+1, +0.885
31
St Louis
72.279
1-10
81.276
-1, -0.505
32
Detroit
70.120
2-9
80.833
+0, +0.011

Sunday, November 29, 2009

2009 Week 13 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 13 (games played thru 28-Nov).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

With one week to go in the season, it couldn't have gotten much closer at the top!  Alabama remains #1 but by less than 0.6 points.  This means Alabama will be picked next week but it really is a virtual tie.  See this blog entry for more details on a head to head comparison and look for more here later in the week.

Behind the top two, the SEC cleaned up.  Buoyed by non-conference wins and upsets in two of the cases over FSU, @GT, and Clemson, nearly every SEC team improved their ratings, some 2 or 3 points leading to 8 teams in the top 24.  The bowl games will be interesting to see if this dominance is well deserved.

Naturally the ACC was hurt being the 3 opponents with their ratings doing just the opposite.  The championship game between Georgia Tech and Clemson doesn't look nearly as appealing now and GT just lost any chance they had of losing and still get a BCS bowl bid.  In fact, the computer says Virginia Tech is the best team in the ACC.

Other than Oklahoma pulling the "upset" (they were favored by Vegas and my computer though), the Big-12 didn't fare that well.  Texas was tested by A&M but moreso was just passed by Florida to drop to #3 and they will face a #23 Nebraska in their championship game.

Cincinnati eked by a bad Illinois team and justifiably dropped to #9 in the rankings and will barely be favored in their game against Pittsburgh next weekend.  If they win, they deserve the BCS bowl they'll get but if not, an undefeated Boise State should get the at-large pick over them.  See this blog entry for thoughts on the BCS at-large teams.

The computer had a blah week against the spread going 25-23-1 and also only went 36-13 picking winners.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
89.492
12-0
70.589
+0, +0.334
2
Florida
88.916
12-0
69.301
+1, +2.272
3
Texas
87.675
12-0
68.647
-1, -0.444
4
TCU
85.300
12-0
64.855
+0, -1.251
5
Oregon
82.648
9-2
72.096
+0, -0.181
6
Boise St
82.255
12-0
63.719
+2, -0.206
7
Virginia Tech
82.027
9-3
72.175
+0, -0.487
8
Arkansas
81.389
7-5
72.652
+3, +1.428
9
Cincinnati
81.103
11-0
65.374
-3, -1.476
10
LSU
80.668
9-3
72.094
+3, +1.368
11
Oklahoma
80.170
7-5
70.353
+4, +1.327
12
Georgia Tech
79.313
10-2
71.846
-3, -2.378
13
Texas Tech
79.026
8-4
67.958
-1, -0.446
14
Miami FL
78.884
9-3
71.411
+0, -0.218
15
Oregon St
78.387
8-3
68.806
+2, -0.286
16
Stanford
78.368
8-4
70.574
+0, -0.387
17
Clemson
78.243
8-4
69.708
-7, -3.156
18
Ohio State
77.961
10-2
65.862
+1, -0.443
19
Tennessee
77.529
7-5
70.619
+11, +2.217
20
Mississippi
77.470
8-4
69.685
+0, -0.574
21
Southern Cal
77.361
8-3
71.561
+5, +0.847
22
Pittsburgh
77.247
9-2
67.006
-4, -1.209
23
Nebraska
77.124
9-3
67.308
-2, -0.246
24
Auburn
76.906
7-5
72.461
+5, +1.590
25
Penn State
76.529
10-2
63.982
-3, -0.740
26
Arizona
76.367
7-4
70.963
-1, -0.486
27
California
76.060
8-3
70.601
+0, -0.400
28
Oklahoma St
75.946
9-3
68.832
-5, -1.235
29
North Carolina
75.206
8-4
68.874
-5, -1.894
30
Georgia
75.184
7-5
73.870
+10, +2.919
31
Connecticut
74.976
6-5
68.847
+0, +0.254
32
Iowa
74.921
10-2
67.383
-4, -0.494
33
South Carolina
74.904
7-5
73.325
+18, +3.661
34
Brigham Young
74.233
10-2
66.076
+0, -0.227
35
Utah
74.138
9-3
65.699
-3, -0.436
36
West Virginia
74.135
8-3
68.427
-3, -0.401
37
Kentucky
74.131
7-5
69.253
-1, +0.752
38
Mississippi St
73.955
5-7
73.092
+11, +2.625
39
Houston
72.955
10-2
62.818
+0, +0.549
40
Florida St
72.401
6-6
73.016
-5, -1.263
41
Texas A&M
72.276
6-6
69.787
+2, +0.296
42
Missouri
72.272
8-4
68.670
-4, -0.301
43
Boston College
72.142
8-4
68.286
-6, -1.193
44
Central Michigan
71.793
10-2
60.189
+2, +0.138
45
Rutgers
71.715
8-3
60.856
+2, +0.173
46
Notre Dame
71.638
6-6
69.582
-1, -0.172
47
Wake Forest
71.317
5-7
70.837
+5, +0.201
48
UCLA
71.274
6-6
72.359
-6, -0.932
49
Air Force
70.906
7-5
63.849
-1, -0.531
50
Wisconsin
70.851
8-3
65.612
+0, -0.424
51
Nevada
70.847
8-4
64.615
+3, +0.452
52
Navy
69.999
8-4
65.572
-11, -2.240
53
South Florida
69.932
7-4
65.634
-9, -1.973
54
Washington
69.926
4-7
72.715
+1, +0.215
55
East Carolina
69.702
8-4
66.178
-2, -0.739
56
Arizona St
69.152
4-8
69.381
+2, +0.103
57
Michigan St
69.111
6-6
66.605
-1, -0.511
58
Fresno St
69.053
7-4
65.464
+2, +0.267
59
Kansas
68.437
5-7
69.484
+2, +0.164
60
Central Florida
68.179
8-4
64.788
+5, +0.450
61
Troy
68.165
9-3
62.178
+5, +0.605
62
Minnesota
67.602
6-6
69.362
+0, -0.555
63
Southern Miss
67.497
7-5
62.213
+0, -0.601
64
Iowa St
67.285
6-6
66.532
+3, -0.188
65
Virginia
67.280
3-9
72.848
-6, -1.512
66
Kansas St
67.241
6-6
67.388
+2, -0.095
67
Temple
66.698
9-3
60.406
-10, -2.704
68
Ohio U.
66.540
9-3
61.327
+12, +2.038
69
Baylor
66.456
4-8
71.049
+3, +0.380
70
Purdue
66.418
5-7
67.408
+0, -0.432
71
Middle Tennessee St
66.339
9-3
59.615
+6, +1.101
72
Duke
66.205
5-7
67.762
-8, -1.865
73
Northwestern
66.156
8-4
62.590
-2, -0.535
74
Louisiana Tech
66.048
3-8
67.341
+0, +0.361
75
North Carolina St
65.928
5-7
67.071
+0, +0.473
76
Bowling Green
65.653
7-5
63.736
+0, +0.310
77
Syracuse
64.497
4-8
68.335
-4, -1.443
78
Northern Illinois
64.311
7-5
58.597
+1, -0.392
79
Marshall
64.224
6-6
66.175
-10, -2.727
80
SMU
63.778
7-5
63.969
-2, -1.188
81
Maryland
63.600
2-10
70.521
+1, -0.242
82
Colorado
63.283
3-9
70.075
+3, +0.068
83
Illinois
63.028
3-8
68.545
+3, -0.057
84
Alabama-Birmingham
63.019
5-7
65.451
-1, -0.749
85
Vanderbilt
62.975
2-10
71.387
+7, +0.962
86
Michigan
62.854
5-7
63.773
-2, -0.442
87
Utah St
62.623
4-8
66.605
+7, +1.142
88
Hawaii
62.589
6-6
62.859
+7, +1.580
89
Idaho
62.270
7-5
64.382
-2, -0.397
90
Louisville
62.243
4-8
68.110
-9, -2.080
91
UNLV
62.225
5-7
66.217
-2, -0.235
92
Buffalo
62.159
5-7
62.290
+1, +0.324
93
Tulsa
62.063
5-7
63.167
-5, -0.402
94
Wyoming
61.985
6-6
67.360
-4, -0.273
95
Indiana
61.556
4-8
65.399
-4, -0.634
96
UTEP
61.344
4-8
63.222
+4, +2.600
97
San Diego St
60.528
4-8
64.962
-1, -0.209
98
Colorado St
59.344
3-9
66.582
-1, -0.501
99
Kent St
58.797
5-7
60.198
+0, -0.656
100
Western Michigan
57.980
5-7
60.297
-2, -1.519
101
Florida Atlantic
57.426
4-7
61.776
+1, -0.700
102
Louisiana-Monroe
57.389
6-6
60.896
-1, -1.054
103
Toledo
57.175
5-7
61.892
+0, -0.437
104
Memphis
56.595
2-10
66.219
+0, +0.654
105
Arkansas St
55.155
3-8
59.304
+0, -0.610
106
Army
55.009
5-6
59.032
+2, +0.164
107
Louisiana-Lafayette
54.915
6-6
60.054
-1, -0.481
108
Washington St
54.736
1-11
73.129
-1, -0.600
109
Ball St
54.457
2-10
62.081
+7, +2.258
110
San Jose St
54.017
2-9
67.219
+0, -0.059
111
Tulane
53.958
3-9
64.814
+1, +0.666
112
Akron
53.625
3-9
61.971
-3, -0.816
113
Miami OH
53.364
1-11
67.163
-2, -0.153
114
Rice
52.756
2-10
66.912
-1, +0.044
115
North Texas
52.498
2-10
60.194
+2, +0.543
116
Florida Int'l
52.397
3-8
65.073
-2, +0.045
117
New Mexico
52.335
1-11
67.756
-2, +0.030
118
New Mexico St
51.047
3-9
62.486
+0, +0.986
119
Eastern Michigan
45.388
0-12
63.020
+0, +0.382
120
Western Kentucky
45.040
0-11
61.979
+0, +1.356

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Florida vs Alabama Analysis

As expected, we've ended up with undefeated Florida vs undefeated Alabama in the SEC championship game with a invitation to the BCS championship game in the balance.  I'll likely blog more on the subject, but here are a few tidbits.

Florida and Alabama have 7 common opponents so looking at those games may shed some light on how the teams compare.

Tennessee - They played both teams on the road, losing to Florida by 10 on 9/19 and by 2 to Alabama on 10/24.  Florida got them earlier in the year before they improved some, but small advantage to Florida.

Kentucky - Both teams visited Kentucky in successive weeks, Florida winning by 34 and Alabama by 18.  Advantage Florida.

LSU - Florida visited LSU winning by 10 while Alabama hosted them and won by 9.  Small advantage to Florida.

Arkansas - They visited both teams losing to Alabama by 28 early in the year and by only 3 to Florida 3 weeks later.  Advantage Alabama.

Mississippi State - Both teams visited them Florida winning by 10 and Alabama by 28 3 weeks later.  Advantage Alabama.

South Carolina - Alabama hosted them winning by 14 and Florida visited them winning by 10.  Basically a push.

Florida International - They visited both teams losing by 26 to Alabama and 59 to Florida.  Small advantage to Florida.

In the end, it all totals a small advantage to Florida.  So why does the computer have Alabama ever so slightly rated higher?  It comes down to the non-common opponents.  Alabama beat a very good Virginia Tech team by 10, a good Ole Miss by 19, beat a good Auburn by 5, and rolled over the other patsies on their schedule.  Florida beat a decent Georgia by 24, an ok FSU by 27, and rolled over the other patsies on their schedule.  This results in Alabama's strength of schedule being about 1.3 points higher than Florida which is enough to make up the gap in common opponents.  Advantage Alabama.

In the end, the computer is going to pick Albama by around 0.6.  When a game is that close it comes down to intangibles, match-ups, and who will make the big play.

More to come later.

BCS At Large Big Analysis

A very popular topic in the upcoming week or two is going to be who the BCS bowl at-large teams should be.  There are still a few games of importance to play today and next weekend, but it is always fun to look forward and prognosticate so here we go.

There are 5 BCS bowl games so 10 spots up for grabs.  Without going into all the different provisions, the 6 BCS conferences get an automatic bid leaving 4 at-large bids.  The highest ranked champion from a non-BCS conference gets an automatic bid as long as they are ranked in the top-12 and Notre Dame gets a bid if they are in the top-8.  The latter isn't happening this year but the former is likely to.

The current situation with games left to be played is:
  • SEC - Alabama/Florida
  • Big-12 - Texas/Nebraska
  • Pac-10 - Oregon/Oregon State
  • Big East - Cincinnati/Pittsburgh
  • ACC - Georgia Tech/Clemson
  • Big-Televen - Ohio State
  • Top-12 Auto - TCU/Boise State
That leaves 3 open spots.  We'll assume that the Alabama/Florida loser will get an at-large and deservedly so and we'll assume for now that other favorites win their conferences (Texas, Oregon, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech).  This would leave 2 spots available for the following teams (in order of my computer's rankings):
  • Virginia Tech - Yes, they have 3 losses but those were to undefeated Alabama, by only 5 at a 1-loss Georgia Tech, and by only 3 to an 8-3 UNC and they have wins over Miami and Nebraska (both 8-3) as well as 7-4 BC and East Carolina.
  • Boise State - They get trumped for the auto-spot by TCU, but if ever there were a year a second non-BCS team should be in it is this year.  Their downfall is their strength of schedule but they did beat a very good Oregon team and took care of business against the other non-conference teams that would play them.
 What about Oklahoma State or a Big-Televen team like Iowa or Penn State you ask?

Yes, Oklahoma State is 9-2 but they've played a pretty weak schedule (only Iowa State's is weaker in the Big-12) but they have beaten the teams they were supposed to other than the Houston misstep.

Regarding Iowa and Penn State, lets just say the conference champ Ohio State shouldn't even be in the top-10, my computer having them at #19.  Penn State is the closest contender but they are #22 and their schedule is much weaker than Oklahoma State's and Iowa is #28 with a comparable schedule to Ok St. but less than impressive wins hurt them.

Now, reality is that pollsters and the BCS committee will over-rotate on win/loss record and likely take Oklahoma State (should they win today) and/or Iowa (cinderella story) but they shouldn't.  If one was taken it might be justifiable as long as Boise State was the other.

Now it gets interesting if we have upsets in the conference championship games.  Texas would likely get and deserve an at-large spot if they lose to Nebraska and an argument could be made for Cincinnati the same.  My computer would argue Oregon should get a spot but probably lose that argument and perhaps Georgia Tech too.  Any of those scenarios would make it interesting!

2009 Week 13 College Football Preview

Here is a preview of a few selected games for this week.  The computer has already gone 11-4 through games played thus far.  Last weeks highlighted games went a very good 4-1 against the spread basically nailing the Oregon/Arizona and Ohio St/Michigan margins, but also calling the Notre Dame and OU lines way too big.  The only miss was Stanford/Cal.  In any case, here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.  Rankings listed are from my computer rankings.

Since this is a traditional rivalry weekend, I had trouble limiting myself to just 5 games, so this week you get 7.

In what should be one of the better games of the weekend, #11 Arkansas visits #13 LSU as 3.5 point underdogs while the computer picks LSU by 2.3.  The computer is 7-4 picking LSU ATS but only 6-5 for Arkansas so tough to say it is a strong pick.

#9 Georgia Tech hosts #40 Georgia hoping to keep their 1-loss season going and is picked by 7 but the computer likes them by much more at 12.4.  The computer is 6-4 picking GT games and they themselves are 7-3 ATS while Georgia is 3-8, making this seem a pretty good pick.

#26 USC hosts #42 UCLA trying to not end a disappointing season on yet another disappointing note.  Oddsmakers believe the good USC will show up with the line 13 but the computer picks them by only 7.3.  Neither team is good ATS this year but USC is bad (2-8) and the computer is 6-4 and 7-4 picking them this year, so another good pick.

In the game between closest ranked teams, #32 Utah visits #34 BYU as a 7.5 point dog but the computer has it only 2.9 points.  Nothing stands out in trends ATS, but the computer thinks Utah is actually better and it is only home field that gives BYU the straight up, so use that as you will.

In a game perhaps more important to #23 Oklahoma State, they visit #15 Oklahoma as 10 point underdogs.  Yes, the computer has OU ranked higher, but given the spread Vegas thinks so too.  All that said, 10 is too many, the computer having it at 4.7.  However, the computer is only 3-8 in Ok St. picks while it is 7-3 in OU picks ATS.

#45 Notre Dame visits #16 Stanford with Charlie Weis' job likely on the line.  The computer picks Stanford by 9.9 but the Notre Dame faithful have gotten the spread down to 7.5.  The computer is 8-3 picking Notre Dame games but only 5-6 on Stanford, but Notre Dame is only 3-8 ATS while Stanford is 8-3, so seems like a pretty strong pick, but the computer can't factor in emotion.

In a game where #3 Florida hopes they can at least win a close one like Alabama and Texas did, but would like to win easily for beauty points, they host #35 Florida State favored by an astonishing 24.5 while the computer has it at 16.  With Florida only 5-5 ATS this year it would seem like a strong pick, but Florida State is a worse 3-7.  It may depend on how FSU withstands early pressure from Florida to see if they can keep it close.

If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at and subscribe to my newsletter that is sent out weekly.

Enjoy the games.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Turkey Day Football Preview

Thanksgiving is always something I look forward to for many reasons, two of which are the food and watching football.  I'll likely do too much of the former today, but what is in store for us for the latter?  Full picks for college and the NFL are available, but I'll highlight the 4 key games today below.

The day gets started with Green Bay at Detroit.  The game would likely be more interesting with Stafford playing, but hopefully Culpepper will not be the same dropoff for Detroit that Simms was for Denver.  Assuming the teams play according to the ratings, the computer likes Green Bay by 8.1 which is less than the 11 point spread.  The teams rating charts below.

 

In the afternoon we have Oakland at Dallas which is perhaps even a less compelling game with Vegas having Dallas as a 2 touchdown favorite while the computer picks them by 12.  But with Dallas' last 2 games, even with one being a win, being two of their worst games of the season and Oakland coming off arguably their best, we can hope for a competitive game.



The evening NFL game is the Giants at Denver.  While neither team is highly ranked currently, it does have the makings of a great game as both teams are trying to turn around what looked like good seasons early but have gone downhill the past few weeks, and stay in the playoff race in their divisions.  As can be seen in the chart below, Denver has had two completely different seasons, oddly the bye week was when things changed, and the Giants were in the same boat but seem to have righted the ship last week.  The computer still gives Denver some credit, especially with them playing at home and picks them by 2.2 while Vegas has the Giants by 7.  Which teams will show up?




And not to be overlooked, in college, Texas visits Texas A&M hoping to keep their BCS championship game hopes alive where they are the Vegas pick by 22 while the computer likes them by only 13.1.  Texas has been pretty consistent but Texas A&M hasn't so the result of this game will hinge on what Texas A&M team shows up.

 


If you like the charts above and want to see more, or are just interested in seeing detailed picks against the spread for all of the college and NFL games, take a look at the newsletter subscription now available at half price for the remainder of the season.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Ratings Trends and Charts

Computer ratings are great in that they process a bunch of data and spew out a rating, but a simple number or ranking oftentimes doesn't tell the whole story.  Some teams are very consistent and others are all over the place and there may be trends in teams steadily improving or not.  One can look at standard deviations and raw numbers over time, but there is nothing like visualizing it.

To that end, I've created charts for all NFL and FBS teams that show the current rating for reference, each weeks rating for the year, and then dots representing how each game contributes to the overall rating.  The dots are interesting as the size represents the weight of the game and green represents games won and red games lost.

Below is the chart for New England.  You can see that after a slow start and some up and down games, they've been pretty consistent even with the loss to Indy.


If you are interested in seeing all the charts for all NFL and FBS teams, sign up for the weekly newsletter which includes the charts along with details on picks against the spread which despite some up and down weeks are still doing pretty well at 357-278-10 for college and 91-65-4 for the NFL.  The price for the newsletter has been cut in half to $10 for the remainder of the season so sign up and take advantage of the offer today.

Monday, November 23, 2009

2009 Week 11 NFL Projections

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 11 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

At the top, New Orleans is projected to finish with 1-loss but still has a 27% chance of finishing undefeated.  Between hosting New England and Dallas and having to visit Atlanta and Carolina, the computer says the most likely event is 1 loss.  Close behind them, Indianapolis, after narrowly getting past Baltimore, is now projected to have 1 loss with a 19% chance of no losses.

The projected AFC playoff teams are presently Indy, San Diego, Cincinnati, New England, with Pittsburgh and then one of Baltimore, Denver, or Jacksonville as wildcards at 9-7.  In the NFC the playoff teams would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, and Dallas or Philly with Philly or Dallas and then one of the Giants, Green Bay, and Atlanta.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
New Orleans
16-0
43.0
0.0
41.7
Indianapolis
13-3
28.1
26.5
18.3
Denver
13-3
34.4
24.0
24.1
Minnesota
13-3
32.0
22.3
24.7
Cincinnati
11-5
29.4
19.8
25.3
Dallas
11-5
31.1
19.6
26.6
Atlanta
10-6
31.0
27.6
19.1
Pittsburgh
10-6
28.5
25.7
18.9
Baltimore
10-6
28.8
24.5
20.6
New England
10-6
27.5
24.1
19.8
Philadelphia
10-6
26.9
18.9
24.5
Arizona
9-7
26.9
26.3
17.0
Houston
9-7
29.5
24.5
20.9
San Diego
9-7
29.8
23.9
21.6
Green Bay
9-7
28.4
22.0
22.4
NY Giants
9-7
29.3
20.4
24.9
San Francisco
9-7
28.0
19.8
24.2
NY Jets
9-7
30.4
19.3
26.5
Chicago
9-7
27.2
18.7
24.8
Miami
9-7
26.3
16.2
26.2
Jacksonville
6-10
26.6
25.6
17.0
Buffalo
6-10
28.7
24.3
20.4
Seattle
6-10
28.1
23.8
20.3
Carolina
5-11
33.1
29.6
16.7
Oakland
5-11
31.6
19.3
27.7
Tennessee
5-11
26.4
17.6
25.4
Cleveland
4-12
29.8
23.3
22.3
Kansas City
3-13
33.3
22.7
25.3
St Louis
3-13
32.4
20.8
27.4
Washington
2-14
43.2
40.6
0.0
Detroit
2-14
35.6
30.3
16.6
Tampa Bay
0-16
44.8
39.0
0.0

2009 Week 11 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Week 11 of the NFL season is complete and it resulted in a few changes in the ratings.  The ratings are below but can always be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.

And there are still 2.  New Orleans wins easily and Indy narrowly and both stay undefeated and #1 and #2 in the rankings.  New England stays #3 even with the loss and there is a new #4 in Minnesota replacing Cincinnati who drops to #7.  It seems the #4 spot is cursed as the last few weeks they've been upset.  Baltimore fits in at #5 even with a 5-5 record due to the losses being very close and/or on the road and San Diego makes a strong move to #6.

The computer came back going 9-6-1 against the spread this week but stunk it up picking winners going only 9-7 against Vegas' 12-4.  Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
New Orleans
91.401
10-0
78.657
+0, +0.336
2
Indianapolis
89.567
10-0
81.430
+0, +0.294
3
New England
88.132
7-3
80.922
+0, +0.699
4
Minnesota
85.884
9-1
77.435
+3, +0.046
5
Baltimore
85.486
5-5
81.886
+0, -0.838
6
San Diego
84.698
7-3
80.730
+8, +2.315
7
Cincinnati
84.538
7-3
80.984
-3, -2.602
8
Philadelphia
84.193
6-4
80.114
+4, +1.226
9
Pittsburgh
84.084
6-4
79.998
-3, -1.915
10
Arizona
84.048
7-3
79.865
-2, -0.573
11
Dallas
83.794
7-3
79.364
-2, -0.765
12
Houston
82.753
5-5
81.536
-2, -1.213
13
Atlanta
82.695
5-5
82.739
-2, -0.338
14
Miami
82.583
5-5
83.051
+4, +1.311
15
NY Giants
82.080
6-4
81.211
+4, +1.210
16
NY Jets
81.889
4-6
82.841
-1, +0.062
17
Tennessee
81.597
4-6
83.186
+3, +0.728
18
Denver
81.283
6-4
81.761
-5, -1.611
19
Green Bay
81.234
6-4
78.268
-2, -0.129
20
San Francisco
80.887
4-6
81.610
-4, -0.875
21
Jacksonville
79.368
6-4
80.466
+2, -0.066
22
Carolina
79.012
4-6
81.825
+0, -0.756
23
Chicago
78.871
4-6
80.021
-2, -1.261
24
Buffalo
77.060
3-7
81.866
+1, +0.145
25
Kansas City
76.697
3-7
80.893
+2, +2.343
26
Seattle
76.664
3-7
80.936
-2, -1.027
27
Washington
75.614
3-7
78.681
-1, +1.195
28
Oakland
74.805
3-7
81.353
+3, +2.436
29
Tampa Bay
74.166
1-9
82.210
-1, +0.473
30
St Louis
72.784
1-9
81.478
-1, -0.022
31
Cleveland
71.759
1-9
82.003
-1, -0.965
32
Detroit
70.109
2-8
80.418
+0, -0.179

Sunday, November 22, 2009

2009 Week 11 NFL Preview

The full predictions each week are at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-predictions but below is a discussion of some of the interesting games.  These games all picked by the current computer ratings located here.

The computer went 2-1-1 last week in interesting games and a disappointing 5-9-1 overall but is still well above 0.500 for the season at 82-59-3.  See full records by week here and if you are interested in additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this where you can subscribe to a weekly newsletter.

Atlanta visits the Giants and for some reason Vegas likes the Giants by 7.5!  The computer also has them winning but my a much closer 0.8 so perhaps an opportunity.  Both teams are 5-4 and Atlanta has faced a tougher schedule.

I would not want to be the Jets going to visit New England.  With revenge and atoning for last weeks letting Indy off the hook in play, New England should be rearing to go and Vegas picks them by 12.  Alas, the computer does remember a bit of the early season Jets and only has them losing by 8.6.

Indy goes on the road to Baltimore trying to keep their undefeated season alive and Vegas does pick them by 2.  Alas, the computer likes Baltimore at home to not just cover but win the game, albeit by 0.1, a virtual tie.  Baltimore plays very well at home but Indy plays well on the road so could be a great game.

In a game that could decide the AFC West, Denver host San Diego and with two teams that have both been up and down this year and with Orton questionable it may not be the Denver team the computer has rated and picks to win by 3.5.  But Vegas can take the injury into account and has San Diego by 6.  Strong pick if you think Orton can play or Denver can play as well with Simms.

Enjoy the games.

2009 Week 12 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 12 (games played thru 21-Nov).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Alabama remains #1, in fact increasing their margin over #2 Texas by just over half a ratings point making it right at 1 point now.  Behind them Florida and TCU swap places but are still in a virtual tie just a point and a half behind Texas.  It is interesting to note that in comparing Texas and TCU, they've now played a common opponent, Wyoming, both at Wyoming, with TCU winning by 35 and Texas by 31.  The computer doesn't single out specific games like this but looks at the entire season, but still interesting to see how close they are.

Behind the top teams there isn't much movement until #11 where Arkansas moves up 6 spots to #11 replacing OU who drops 4 to #16.  Texas Tech was the reason OU dropped and they leap 12 spots to #12.  Stanford also drops 4 spots after their loss to #16.

I have added 3 championship games to the schedule for projecting games and that means only 5 are projected to finish undefeated with Alabama beating Florida.

The computer had a good week against the spread going 28-23-1 and had a push with Vegas going 40-12 picking winners.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
89.158
11-0
68.684
+0, +0.119
2
Texas
88.119
11-0
67.892
+0, -0.490
3
Florida
86.644
11-0
67.766
+1, -0.130
4
TCU
86.551
11-0
67.033
-1, -0.488
5
Oregon
82.829
9-2
72.343
+0, -0.567
6
Cincinnati
82.579
10-0
66.504
+0, -0.699
7
Virginia Tech
82.514
8-3
73.320
+1, +0.097
8
Boise St
82.461
11-0
63.140
-1, -0.277
9
Georgia Tech
81.691
10-1
72.457
+1, -0.191
10
Clemson
81.399
8-3
69.505
-1, -0.892
11
Arkansas
79.961
7-4
70.400
+6, +1.220
12
Texas Tech
79.472
7-4
67.975
+12, +2.820
13
LSU
79.300
8-3
70.532
+0, -0.381
14
Miami FL
79.102
8-3
72.198
+1, -0.016
15
Oklahoma
78.843
6-5
70.327
-4, -2.506
16
Stanford
78.755
7-4
70.893
-4, -2.290
17
Oregon St
78.673
8-3
69.196
-3, -0.738
18
Pittsburgh
78.456
9-1
66.692
-2, -0.646
19
Ohio State
78.404
10-2
66.247
-1, -0.161
20
Mississippi
78.044
8-3
68.091
+0, +0.133
21
Nebraska
77.370
8-3
67.531
+0, -0.367
22
Penn State
77.269
10-2
64.755
+5, +1.625
23
Oklahoma St
77.181
9-2
67.191
-4, -1.102
24
North Carolina
77.100
8-3
69.718
+6, +1.652
25
Arizona
76.853
6-4
71.248
-2, -0.430
26
Southern Cal
76.514
7-3
72.110
-4, -0.787
27
California
76.460
8-3
71.057
+4, +1.091
28
Iowa
75.415
10-2
67.883
+0, -0.226
29
Auburn
75.316
7-4
69.999
+3, +0.080
30
Tennessee
75.312
6-5
68.729
-1, -0.311
31
Connecticut
74.722
5-5
69.998
+2, -0.339
32
Utah
74.574
9-2
65.028
+3, +0.096
33
West Virginia
74.536
7-3
68.670
+3, +0.235
34
Brigham Young
74.460
9-2
65.716
+3, +0.820
35
Florida St
73.664
6-5
72.303
-1, -1.286
36
Kentucky
73.379
7-4
67.796
+10, +1.238
37
Boston College
73.335
7-4
69.157
-11, -2.481
38
Missouri
72.573
7-4
68.779
+3, -0.074
39
Houston
72.406
9-2
63.716
+11, +0.522
40
Georgia
72.265
6-5
71.938
-2, -1.319
41
Navy
72.239
8-3
65.969
+2, -0.233
42
UCLA
72.206
6-5
71.641
+5, +0.110
43
Texas A&M
71.980
6-5
68.283
+11, +1.475
44
South Florida
71.905
7-3
65.221
-2, -0.596
45
Notre Dame
71.810
6-5
68.952
-5, -1.049
46
Central Michigan
71.655
9-2
60.312
-1, -0.570
47
Rutgers
71.542
7-3
61.021
-22, -4.419
48
Air Force
71.437
7-5
64.345
-9, -1.684
49
Mississippi St
71.330
4-7
72.300
-1, -0.676
50
Wisconsin
71.275
8-3
65.990
-6, -0.951
51
South Carolina
71.243
6-5
72.116
+0, -0.021
52
Wake Forest
71.116
4-7
71.857
-3, -0.873
53
East Carolina
70.441
7-4
66.988
+5, +0.879
54
Nevada
70.395
8-3
62.496
-1, -0.347
55
Washington
69.711
3-7
74.866
+0, -0.784
56
Michigan St
69.622
6-6
67.122
-4, -1.370
57
Temple
69.402
9-2
59.831
+7, +1.307
58
Arizona St
69.049
4-7
69.103
-2, -1.188
59
Virginia
68.792
3-8
73.402
+0, -0.139
60
Fresno St
68.786
7-4
65.306
-3, -1.010
61
Kansas
68.273
5-6
69.301
+1, +0.001
62
Minnesota
68.157
6-6
69.940
+1, +0.004
63
Southern Miss
68.098
7-4
61.784
+3, +0.128
64
Duke
68.070
5-6
68.356
-4, -0.345
65
Central Florida
67.729
7-4
64.895
+5, +0.897
66
Troy
67.560
8-3
62.207
+3, +0.617
67
Iowa St
67.473
6-6
66.717
-2, -0.526
68
Kansas St
67.336
6-6
67.452
+0, +0.271
69
Marshall
66.951
6-5
66.564
-2, -0.335
70
Purdue
66.850
5-7
67.806
+3, +0.896
71
Northwestern
66.691
8-4
62.983
+1, +0.716
72
Baylor
66.076
4-7
70.408
-11, -2.280
73
Syracuse
65.940
4-7
68.327
+14, +3.005
74
Louisiana Tech
65.687
3-8
66.948
+2, +0.446
75
North Carolina St
65.455
4-7
67.113
-4, -0.875
76
Bowling Green
65.343
6-5
64.559
-1, -0.181
77
Middle Tennessee St
65.238
8-3
59.486
+0, +0.454
78
SMU
64.966
6-5
65.532
+0, +0.221
79
Northern Illinois
64.703
7-4
57.096
-5, -1.118
80
Ohio U.
64.502
8-3
60.779
-1, -0.000
81
Louisville
64.323
4-7
68.705
+0, +0.159
82
Maryland
63.842
2-9
71.257
+1, +0.229
83
Alabama-Birmingham
63.768
5-6
65.688
-3, -0.550
84
Michigan
63.296
5-7
64.157
+0, -0.256
85
Colorado
63.215
3-8
70.017
+6, +1.207
86
Illinois
63.085
3-7
67.487
+0, -0.066
87
Idaho
62.667
7-4
64.588
-2, -0.565
88
Tulsa
62.465
4-7
63.826
+1, +0.038
89
UNLV
62.460
4-7
67.220
-1, -0.136
90
Wyoming
62.258
5-6
68.335
+0, +0.199
91
Indiana
62.190
4-8
66.043
-9, -1.660
92
Vanderbilt
62.013
2-10
70.289
+0, +0.216
93
Buffalo
61.835
4-7
62.387
+5, +1.183
94
Utah St
61.481
3-8
66.478
-1, -0.212
95
Hawaii
61.009
5-6
62.374
+2, +0.139
96
San Diego St
60.737
4-7
65.285
-2, -0.819
97
Colorado St
59.845
3-8
67.682
-1, -1.095
98
Western Michigan
59.499
5-6
61.301
+1, -0.650
99
Kent St
59.453
5-6
60.578
-4, -1.747
100
UTEP
58.744
3-8
63.349
+2, -0.507
101
Louisiana-Monroe
58.443
6-5
60.622
-1, -1.048
102
Florida Atlantic
58.126
3-7
63.499
-1, -1.147
103
Toledo
57.612
5-6
61.528
+0, +0.157
104
Memphis
55.941
2-9
66.215
+1, -0.220
105
Arkansas St
55.765
2-8
60.677
-1, -1.333
106
Louisiana-Lafayette
55.396
6-5
59.574
+3, +0.266
107
Washington St
55.336
1-10
73.284
-1, -0.160
108
Army
54.845
5-6
59.028
+2, -0.142
109
Akron
54.441
2-9
64.058
+2, -0.157
110
San Jose St
54.076
1-9
68.873
-3, -1.332
111
Miami OH
53.517
1-11
67.538
-3, -1.832
112
Tulane
53.292
3-8
64.639
+0, -0.558
113
Rice
52.712
2-9
66.301
+3, +0.906
114
Florida Int'l
52.352
3-8
64.727
+1, -0.202
115
New Mexico
52.305
1-10
66.068
+2, +1.372
116
Ball St
52.199
1-10
61.842
-3, -0.714
117
North Texas
51.955
2-9
59.864
-3, -0.930
118
New Mexico St
50.061
3-8
62.522
+0, -0.071
119
Eastern Michigan
45.006
0-11
63.847
+0, -1.607
120
Western Kentucky
43.684
0-10
62.310
+0, -0.132